2025 Instinctive's "Second Look" - Players whose projection differs from consensus ranks (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

Let's start with Amon-Ra.

25% target share (140 targets)
108/1164/7
212 points

Coleman
20% target share (112 targets)
65/1144/12
221 points

So they're the same tier, and my default scoring impacts the slottier guys like ARSB more than others (0.5 PPR - full PPR he gains 21.5 points over Coleman and is ahead of him, so your scoring matters). It pretty much comes down to TDs - I think BUF throws 32 of them and DET throws 26 of them, and I think Coleman gets a large chunk of that pie and ARSB doesn't.

Missed this. You're projecting Coleman for 1,144 yards and 12 TDs? Am I reading this right? I too, am also fading Amon-ra a bit but that is a huge outlier projection on Coleman. It's about double what most people are projecting for him. I have BUF throwing 30 TDs but they really spread the ball around a lot. I love bold predictions, but would like to hear more reasoning behind this one.

Higher on Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48): 20% target share for 65/1144/12

I think there's upside here too. Camp reports are one of those steady stream super glowing but somehow under the radar because he's not a rookie. Bumping his YPT up a bit but his TD% down. Still a little on the high side for your average WR given his red zone usage + how great the offense is. My dream would be to get Allen at the end of round 2 and Coleman in like the 7th in any league. Room for another 25% more targets (which probably would mean a little lower efficiency but is a huge net gain). Big bodied guy, apparently much improved on routes and gaining separation (his one big challenge last season) - this is just a sophomore 33rd overall pick doing good things.

 

[Scoresman]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

Let's start with Amon-Ra.

25% target share (140 targets)
108/1164/7
212 points

Coleman
20% target share (112 targets)
65/1144/12
221 points

So they're the same tier, and my default scoring impacts the slottier guys like ARSB more than others (0.5 PPR - full PPR he gains 21.5 points over Coleman and is ahead of him, so your scoring matters). It pretty much comes down to TDs - I think BUF throws 32 of them and DET throws 26 of them, and I think Coleman gets a large chunk of that pie and ARSB doesn't.

Missed this. You're projecting Coleman for 1,144 yards and 12 TDs? Am I reading this right? I too, am also fading Amon-ra a bit but that is a huge outlier projection on Coleman. It's about double what most people are projecting for him. I have BUF throwing 30 TDs but they really spread the ball around a lot. I love bold predictions, but would like to hear more reasoning behind this one.

Higher on Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48): 20% target share for 65/1144/12

I think there's upside here too. Camp reports are one of those steady stream super glowing but somehow under the radar because he's not a rookie. Bumping his YPT up a bit but his TD% down. Still a little on the high side for your average WR given his red zone usage + how great the offense is. My dream would be to get Allen at the end of round 2 and Coleman in like the 7th in any league. Room for another 25% more targets (which probably would mean a little lower efficiency but is a huge net gain). Big bodied guy, apparently much improved on routes and gaining separation (his one big challenge last season) - this is just a sophomore 33rd overall pick doing good things.

What's interesting is that if I plug those stats in for Coleman into my projections, he is WR8, not WR17 like yours.

 

[Instinctive]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

Let's start with Amon-Ra.

25% target share (140 targets)
108/1164/7
212 points

Coleman
20% target share (112 targets)
65/1144/12
221 points

So they're the same tier, and my default scoring impacts the slottier guys like ARSB more than others (0.5 PPR - full PPR he gains 21.5 points over Coleman and is ahead of him, so your scoring matters). It pretty much comes down to TDs - I think BUF throws 32 of them and DET throws 26 of them, and I think Coleman gets a large chunk of that pie and ARSB doesn't.

Missed this. You're projecting Coleman for 1,144 yards and 12 TDs? Am I reading this right? I too, am also fading Amon-ra a bit but that is a huge outlier projection on Coleman. It's about double what most people are projecting for him. I have BUF throwing 30 TDs but they really spread the ball around a lot. I love bold predictions, but would like to hear more reasoning behind this one.

Higher on Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48): 20% target share for 65/1144/12

I think there's upside here too. Camp reports are one of those steady stream super glowing but somehow under the radar because he's not a rookie. Bumping his YPT up a bit but his TD% down. Still a little on the high side for your average WR given his red zone usage + how great the offense is. My dream would be to get Allen at the end of round 2 and Coleman in like the 7th in any league. Room for another 25% more targets (which probably would mean a little lower efficiency but is a huge net gain). Big bodied guy, apparently much improved on routes and gaining separation (his one big challenge last season) - this is just a sophomore 33rd overall pick doing good things.

What's interesting is that if I plug those stats in for Coleman into my projections, he is WR8, not WR17 like yours.

That is interesting. Mine spits out this order, keeping in mind that every single player is projected for 17 games - the model doesn't believe in "injury prone", just taking rate stats and making adjustments for situation and development (or aging).

Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR
Ceedee Lamb	DAL	WR
Nico Collins	HOU	WR
Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR
Puka Nacua	LAR	WR
Drake London	ATL	WR
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	WR
Malik Nabers	NYG	WR
Tee Higgins	CIN	WR
Davante Adams	LAR	WR
Ladd McConkey	LAC	WR
Rashee Rice	KC	WR
Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	WR
Mike Evans	TB	WR
A.J. Brown	PHI	WR
Keon Coleman	BUF	WR

​

 

[Scoresman]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

Let's start with Amon-Ra.

25% target share (140 targets)
108/1164/7
212 points

Coleman
20% target share (112 targets)
65/1144/12
221 points

So they're the same tier, and my default scoring impacts the slottier guys like ARSB more than others (0.5 PPR - full PPR he gains 21.5 points over Coleman and is ahead of him, so your scoring matters). It pretty much comes down to TDs - I think BUF throws 32 of them and DET throws 26 of them, and I think Coleman gets a large chunk of that pie and ARSB doesn't.

Missed this. You're projecting Coleman for 1,144 yards and 12 TDs? Am I reading this right? I too, am also fading Amon-ra a bit but that is a huge outlier projection on Coleman. It's about double what most people are projecting for him. I have BUF throwing 30 TDs but they really spread the ball around a lot. I love bold predictions, but would like to hear more reasoning behind this one.

Higher on Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48): 20% target share for 65/1144/12

I think there's upside here too. Camp reports are one of those steady stream super glowing but somehow under the radar because he's not a rookie. Bumping his YPT up a bit but his TD% down. Still a little on the high side for your average WR given his red zone usage + how great the offense is. My dream would be to get Allen at the end of round 2 and Coleman in like the 7th in any league. Room for another 25% more targets (which probably would mean a little lower efficiency but is a huge net gain). Big bodied guy, apparently much improved on routes and gaining separation (his one big challenge last season) - this is just a sophomore 33rd overall pick doing good things.

What's interesting is that if I plug those stats in for Coleman into my projections, he is WR8, not WR17 like yours.

That is interesting. Mine spits out this order, keeping in mind that every single player is projected for 17 games - the model doesn't believe in "injury prone", just taking rate stats and making adjustments for situation and development (or aging).

Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	WR
Ceedee Lamb	DAL	WR
Nico Collins	HOU	WR
Tyreek Hill	MIA	WR
Puka Nacua	LAR	WR
Drake London	ATL	WR
Brian Thomas Jr	JAC	WR
Malik Nabers	NYG	WR
Tee Higgins	CIN	WR
Davante Adams	LAR	WR
Ladd McConkey	LAC	WR
Rashee Rice	KC	WR
Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	WR
Mike Evans	TB	WR
A.J. Brown	PHI	WR
Keon Coleman	BUF	WR

​

Yeah my top 17 looks very similar except I am accounting for Rice's likely suspension and I dont have Coleman projected that high.

With my projection I have Coleman at WR36 which is still higher than consensus.

Here's who I have just ahead of Coleman at WR17-35.

Xavier Worthy

Mike Evans

Tyreek Hill

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

DeVonta Smith

Calvin Ridley

Courtland Sutton

George Pickens

Jameson Williams

Zay Flowers

Tetairoa McMillan

Travis Hunter

Garrett Wilson

Emeka Egbuka

DJ Moore

Jaylen Waddle

Matthew Golden

Rome Odunze

​

This is just by projection though, and I project median outcomes. My rankings start with projected ranks and account for range of outcome and personal bias. So my rankings put Tyreek and Wilson lower for example since I'm fading those two.

 

[Jail]

Love seeing the calls and some differing opinions.

I am gonna be really interested in your logic on Josh Jacobs as RB1, Keon Coleman>Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the low rankings of Jefferson/Hockenson (that I hope is based on a lot more than just McCarthy is unproven, because those guys were still elite with Nick Mullens in 2023)

I'm totally with you on Nix, Collins, Nabers, Kincaid, and especially Hall.

Let's start with Amon-Ra.

25% target share (140 targets)
108/1164/7
212 points

Coleman
20% target share (112 targets)
65/1144/12
221 points

So they're the same tier, and my default scoring impacts the slottier guys like ARSB more than others (0.5 PPR - full PPR he gains 21.5 points over Coleman and is ahead of him, so your scoring matters). It pretty much comes down to TDs - I think BUF throws 32 of them and DET throws 26 of them, and I think Coleman gets a large chunk of that pie and ARSB doesn't.

Missed this. You're projecting Coleman for 1,144 yards and 12 TDs? Am I reading this right? I too, am also fading Amon-ra a bit but that is a huge outlier projection on Coleman. It's about double what most people are projecting for him. I have BUF throwing 30 TDs but they really spread the ball around a lot. I love bold predictions, but would like to hear more reasoning behind this one.

Higher on Keon Coleman (WR17, consensus 48): 20% target share for 65/1144/12

I think there's upside here too. Camp reports are one of those steady stream super glowing but somehow under the radar because he's not a rookie. Bumping his YPT up a bit but his TD% down. Still a little on the high side for your average WR given his red zone usage + how great the offense is. My dream would be to get Allen at the end of round 2 and Coleman in like the 7th in any league. Room for another 25% more targets (which probably would mean a little lower efficiency but is a huge net gain). Big bodied guy, apparently much improved on routes and gaining separation (his one big challenge last season) - this is just a sophomore 33rd overall pick doing good things.

Thanks for posting this. Love this thread. Really good discussion.

12 TD is a huge number. Only 3 WR hit that number last year.

 

[Puppies]

This was a good read.

I appreciate that the reasoning behind each of the variations from consensus ratings is mostly fact-based rather than leaning on intangibles.

 

[rockaction]

Instinctive, I love your model because five of the top eleven WRs are on my dynasty team. (We're weak in other areas.)