EBF
Footballguy
I don't play dynasty anymore, but I still have a redraft team and it's a tradition to do a deep dive on each rookie class, so here goes.
Full disclosure: I watch very little football these days. These are just my rapid fire thoughts based on highlights and game cuts.
I'll start out with the RBs. WRs and TEs will follow later. If I still have energy after that, I might watch some QB tape.
Note that these are not rankings. I'm simply going through the players based on draft order and giving my thoughts. Green means I think the player was good value at his selection while red means I think he was a questionable pick. If there's no color then it's a neutral/moderate position.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders - The pick has similar vibes to Bowers, Bijan, and MHJ in terms of being a solid prospect who makes sense at a high draft slot, even if the "wow" factor doesn't quite stack up with the create-a-player dream. I don't see Tomlinson, Bush, Peterson, or Saquon talent here. While Jeanty was picked 6th overall, the freakish qualities aren't on par with the absolute best RB prospects I've seen. Don't take that as a scorching criticism. I don't see any major flaws to his game. He is big enough to handle a large workload. He has plus speed and balance. When watching his clips, you notice that he is rarely hit hard because he has a knack for subtle cuts and movements to minimize contact. He has some shiftiness at every level. The comparison I'm going with is DeAngelo Williams. Williams had a good career that might have been great if he hadn't shared the Carolina backfield with Jonathan Stewart for so many years of his prime. I view Jeanty as a safe pick to become a productive starter.
RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers - He has a compact frame and good speed for the first 10-15 yards. He's certainly not a plodder. There's some burst to his game. He shows potential as a pass catcher. That being said, his tape is not on par with what I would expect from a 1st round RB. While he's not slow, he seems to gather in and out of cuts, losing speed in the process. He doesn't have a great second gear. He can be run down from behind. His functional power is not special. If you just showed me his clips without telling me the draft slot, I might have guessed 3rd round. I'm going to draw a parallel with Donald Brown. I did not love Brown's clips as a prospect out of UConn, but the Colts took him high and immediately put him to work. He had a passable, though not very good career. The main positives I see with Hampton are circumstantial. Harbaugh is a good coach with a strong history of running the ball. The Chargers lost JK Dobbins and spent a very high pick on Hampton. What does all of that mean? They are likely to slot him into the lineup early and feed him opportunities. These positives cannot be ignored, though I can't say I'm a big fan of his ability in a vacuum. I'll consider him a slight fade. If I invested in him in dynasty, I'd be keeping a close eye on him and possibly looking for a sell high exit window.
RB Quinshon Judkins, Browns - Let's put aside the off-field stuff for now and just focus on the player. Judkins runs low with quick feet and good power. He is an aggressive runner. More of a bruiser than a home run hitter, lacking true elusiveness in the second level. He can evade in the backfield, but he is somewhat tight at full gallop. Sufficient sprint speed. There may be starter upside here, but even if we put aside the "stuff" that surrounds him, I think I like Henderson and Harvey more from a pure talent standpoint. I'd look at Judkins as a high-risk/medium-reward dice throw. Unlike a Mixon or Tyreek situation, the talent isn't exceptional enough for me to consider overlooking the red flags.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots - As stated, I like his talent more than Judkins even if we ignore the character concerns. Although he's a little bit more of a long strider than most of the RBs in this class, it doesn't come at the expense of fluidity and agility. Henderson is in the vein of backs like Forte and Alexander where the long stride does not preclude being able to make sharp cuts. No one will ever confuse him for Barry Sanders, but he has some evasiveness in the second level and can make cuts at speed. While he doesn't look small on tape, his listed weight is lower than you'd expect. That's a minor orange flag. I'd consider him more of a lock if he were 210+, but still I cautiously anticipate him having a solid career. I'd take him over Judkins or Hampton.
RB RJ Harvey, Broncos - I can't remember the last time I liked a Denver RB draft pick. I didn't like Booker, Freeman, or Javonte. I've disagreed with most of this org's moves at the position in recent years, but we finally see eye to eye here. Harvey looks like a nice value out of the 2nd round, sharing many traits with Ashton Jeanty while costing a fraction of the draft capital. He might be the best interior runner in the draft. He has instant start-stop quickness. While you might like him to be a little bit taller and heavier, his frame is probably fine for full-time duty. Runs with adequate power. His speed and athleticism check out. Compact with shiftiness, speed, and power is a combination that tends to work well at RB in any era. I skew optimistic on Harvey, who shares traits with past success stories like Gore and Rice. Probably a top 2-3 RB in this draft.
RB Kaleb Johnson, Steelers - Based on his highlights, he's an edge hunter inclined to break everything to the outside and try to run around the defense. That always scares me when projecting to the NFL because the defenders are too fast to be beaten consistently in that fashion. However, when I took a closer look at the invidiual game cuts, I did see some slightly more promising reps where Johnson ran through trash and showed some footwork. Linear sprinter RBs with suspect elusiveness might be my least favorite species of RB. That graveyard is littered with names like Jerious Norwood and Knile Davis. If you want positive comps for Johnson, you can look at people like Latavius and DeMarco Murray. I'll cautiously compare Johnson to Latavius. He isn't a burner like some of those other names, but he also has better power and interior running potential than someone like Norwood or Knile. I'm not generally a believer in Johnson, but this is an open RB spot and he may have enough talent to be functional for a few seasons. There's enough here to prevent him from being a total fade. Would I buy any shares? Probably not.
That's all the day 1-2 RBs. I'm going to make a separate post for the 4th rounders later today. Then I'll dive into the 5th-7th round candidates on a later date.
To summarize this first cluster, I would feel good about buying shares of Jeanty, Henderson, and Harvey. The latter two look like the best values given Jeanty's expected cost. When you buy at the top of the market, there is little room for profit and lots of downside. Jeanty does look like a very safe bet though.
The rest would be unlikely to find their way onto my rosters based on their anticipated ADP, though there's nobody who looks totally hopeless.
Full disclosure: I watch very little football these days. These are just my rapid fire thoughts based on highlights and game cuts.
I'll start out with the RBs. WRs and TEs will follow later. If I still have energy after that, I might watch some QB tape.
Note that these are not rankings. I'm simply going through the players based on draft order and giving my thoughts. Green means I think the player was good value at his selection while red means I think he was a questionable pick. If there's no color then it's a neutral/moderate position.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders - The pick has similar vibes to Bowers, Bijan, and MHJ in terms of being a solid prospect who makes sense at a high draft slot, even if the "wow" factor doesn't quite stack up with the create-a-player dream. I don't see Tomlinson, Bush, Peterson, or Saquon talent here. While Jeanty was picked 6th overall, the freakish qualities aren't on par with the absolute best RB prospects I've seen. Don't take that as a scorching criticism. I don't see any major flaws to his game. He is big enough to handle a large workload. He has plus speed and balance. When watching his clips, you notice that he is rarely hit hard because he has a knack for subtle cuts and movements to minimize contact. He has some shiftiness at every level. The comparison I'm going with is DeAngelo Williams. Williams had a good career that might have been great if he hadn't shared the Carolina backfield with Jonathan Stewart for so many years of his prime. I view Jeanty as a safe pick to become a productive starter.
RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers - He has a compact frame and good speed for the first 10-15 yards. He's certainly not a plodder. There's some burst to his game. He shows potential as a pass catcher. That being said, his tape is not on par with what I would expect from a 1st round RB. While he's not slow, he seems to gather in and out of cuts, losing speed in the process. He doesn't have a great second gear. He can be run down from behind. His functional power is not special. If you just showed me his clips without telling me the draft slot, I might have guessed 3rd round. I'm going to draw a parallel with Donald Brown. I did not love Brown's clips as a prospect out of UConn, but the Colts took him high and immediately put him to work. He had a passable, though not very good career. The main positives I see with Hampton are circumstantial. Harbaugh is a good coach with a strong history of running the ball. The Chargers lost JK Dobbins and spent a very high pick on Hampton. What does all of that mean? They are likely to slot him into the lineup early and feed him opportunities. These positives cannot be ignored, though I can't say I'm a big fan of his ability in a vacuum. I'll consider him a slight fade. If I invested in him in dynasty, I'd be keeping a close eye on him and possibly looking for a sell high exit window.
RB Quinshon Judkins, Browns - Let's put aside the off-field stuff for now and just focus on the player. Judkins runs low with quick feet and good power. He is an aggressive runner. More of a bruiser than a home run hitter, lacking true elusiveness in the second level. He can evade in the backfield, but he is somewhat tight at full gallop. Sufficient sprint speed. There may be starter upside here, but even if we put aside the "stuff" that surrounds him, I think I like Henderson and Harvey more from a pure talent standpoint. I'd look at Judkins as a high-risk/medium-reward dice throw. Unlike a Mixon or Tyreek situation, the talent isn't exceptional enough for me to consider overlooking the red flags.
RB TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots - As stated, I like his talent more than Judkins even if we ignore the character concerns. Although he's a little bit more of a long strider than most of the RBs in this class, it doesn't come at the expense of fluidity and agility. Henderson is in the vein of backs like Forte and Alexander where the long stride does not preclude being able to make sharp cuts. No one will ever confuse him for Barry Sanders, but he has some evasiveness in the second level and can make cuts at speed. While he doesn't look small on tape, his listed weight is lower than you'd expect. That's a minor orange flag. I'd consider him more of a lock if he were 210+, but still I cautiously anticipate him having a solid career. I'd take him over Judkins or Hampton.
RB RJ Harvey, Broncos - I can't remember the last time I liked a Denver RB draft pick. I didn't like Booker, Freeman, or Javonte. I've disagreed with most of this org's moves at the position in recent years, but we finally see eye to eye here. Harvey looks like a nice value out of the 2nd round, sharing many traits with Ashton Jeanty while costing a fraction of the draft capital. He might be the best interior runner in the draft. He has instant start-stop quickness. While you might like him to be a little bit taller and heavier, his frame is probably fine for full-time duty. Runs with adequate power. His speed and athleticism check out. Compact with shiftiness, speed, and power is a combination that tends to work well at RB in any era. I skew optimistic on Harvey, who shares traits with past success stories like Gore and Rice. Probably a top 2-3 RB in this draft.
RB Kaleb Johnson, Steelers - Based on his highlights, he's an edge hunter inclined to break everything to the outside and try to run around the defense. That always scares me when projecting to the NFL because the defenders are too fast to be beaten consistently in that fashion. However, when I took a closer look at the invidiual game cuts, I did see some slightly more promising reps where Johnson ran through trash and showed some footwork. Linear sprinter RBs with suspect elusiveness might be my least favorite species of RB. That graveyard is littered with names like Jerious Norwood and Knile Davis. If you want positive comps for Johnson, you can look at people like Latavius and DeMarco Murray. I'll cautiously compare Johnson to Latavius. He isn't a burner like some of those other names, but he also has better power and interior running potential than someone like Norwood or Knile. I'm not generally a believer in Johnson, but this is an open RB spot and he may have enough talent to be functional for a few seasons. There's enough here to prevent him from being a total fade. Would I buy any shares? Probably not.
That's all the day 1-2 RBs. I'm going to make a separate post for the 4th rounders later today. Then I'll dive into the 5th-7th round candidates on a later date.
To summarize this first cluster, I would feel good about buying shares of Jeanty, Henderson, and Harvey. The latter two look like the best values given Jeanty's expected cost. When you buy at the top of the market, there is little room for profit and lots of downside. Jeanty does look like a very safe bet though.
The rest would be unlikely to find their way onto my rosters based on their anticipated ADP, though there's nobody who looks totally hopeless.
