2006's big RB flux -- how does it change strategy? (1 Viewer)

[Byron_nyc]

The big FF offseason news this year IMO is the massive amount of expected movement in the RB corps around the league. Last year, the moves were small -- basically only rookies, Jordan, RuebenD and Travis Henry were players slated to start on new teams. This year, its rookies and about a dozen FA RBs from Alexander to Williams who might be behind new lines in 2006.

Natch, the details of who land where will be paramount to a new draft assessment. But prior to the shakeout, I wonder if anyone has some thoughts on this development.

a) Is there a model or a set of opinions on backs changing teams? Seems to me Portis, Jordan, Rueben, Henry all ported their stats to new teams pretty much intact. Anyone have counterexamples, where a RB did well behind one line and bombed behind another? Does anyone have an opinion, stats, or anecdotes of how much effect changing teams and O-lines has on a RB's production historically?

b) Does the overall RB instability mean more instability generally from the position? Does this mean that there will be more value than last year at RB later in the draft, more chances to be taken rounds 2-6 on untested or chancy RBs? Maybe the move this year is to take a "lock" in another position, say Gates or Holt, if you draft later in round 1 -- if you can't get LJ or LT or SA or Edge?

Let me know your thoughts if you have them.

Thanks,

B

 

[jeff_eaglz]

The big FF offseason news this year IMO is the massive amount of expected movement in the RB corps around the league. Last year, the moves were small -- basically only rookies, Jordan, RuebenD and Travis Henry were players slated to start on new teams. This year, its rookies and about a dozen FA RBs from Alexander to Williams who might be behind new lines in 2006.

Natch, the details of who land where will be paramount to a new draft assessment. But prior to the shakeout, I wonder if anyone has some thoughts on this development.

a) Is there a model or a set of opinions on backs changing teams? Seems to me Portis, Jordan, Rueben, Henry all ported their stats to new teams pretty much intact. Anyone have counterexamples, where a RB did well behind one line and bombed behind another? Does anyone have an opinion, stats, or anecdotes of how much effect changing teams and O-lines has on a RB's production historically?

b) Does the overall RB instability mean more instability generally from the position? Does this mean that there will be more value than last year at RB later in the draft, more chances to be taken rounds 2-6 on untested or chancy RBs? Maybe the move this year is to take a "lock" in another position, say Gates or Holt, if you draft later in round 1 -- if you can't get LJ or LT or SA or Edge?

Let me know your thoughts if you have them.

Thanks,

B

Big-time :honda:Multiple threads already on this topic.

Here is one:

LINK

 

[AB in DC]

umm, jeff, Byron's question is a more strategic one -- not related to the speculation of who's moving where.

 

[Byron_nyc]

That's a useful link, Honda, thanks!

I am, however, looking for more historical/abstract/strategic thinking about this topic, not just who is going where.

 

[nygiants56]

fantasy index's take on the subject...basically , rb's that move to new teams do 'remarkably well' in first years with new franchise, as per this report from their site...

http://fantasyindex.com/Factoid120505.html

 

[dgreen]

fantasy index's take on the subject...basically , rb's that move to new teams do 'remarkably well' in first years with new franchise, as per this report from their site...

http://fantasyindex.com/Factoid120505.html

Makes sense. We all know RBs are more likely to have success as a rookie than most other positions, so a team change probably isn't a big deal.Here's what they need to know: Where's the hole? And, with teams now using more zone blocking and the stretch play, RBs decide on their own where the hole is.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

That's a useful link, Honda, thanks!

I am, however, looking for more historical/abstract/strategic thinking about this topic, not just who is going where.

Fair enough - just thought it was covered on another thread.My apologies - carry on.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

I think it is a bit early to speculate given free agency and the draft are pending, but I do agree that there's a ton of upheaval at RB for 2006.

I also believe that RBBC will become more commonplace, especially with the increased number of talented RBs in the league.

FWIW - LINK

Good points were brought up here in that a feature back trumps RBBC in player personnel decisions (i.e. the defense can't key on what's coming).

I find Edge's situation of particular interest, followed by SA and even TJones.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Another thread to ponder.

2006, 32 Backfields

 

[(HULK)]

I think the key to the early rounds of a draft are to get players that are known quantities.

Next year, with all of the upheaval, I'm fairly certain I'll go for a solid RB who is on the same team as before in round one, and then for Gates, Manning, Harrison type players in rounds 2 and 3. Then back to back "risky" rbs in rounds 4 and 5.

I'd hate high uncertainity players early in a draft. If you miss on your top two picks, your chances are pretty much shot.

 

[Isotopes]

a) Is there a model or a set of opinions on backs changing teams? Seems to me Portis, Jordan, Rueben, Henry all ported their stats to new teams pretty much intact. Anyone have counterexamples, where a RB did well behind one line and bombed behind another? Does anyone have an opinion, stats, or anecdotes of how much effect changing teams and O-lines has on a RB's production historically?

Not sure Travis Henry should be in the same category as Portis and Jordan.

 

[tattoofan]

a)  Is there a model or a set of opinions on backs changing teams?  Seems to me Portis, Jordan, Rueben, Henry all ported their stats to new teams pretty much intact.  Anyone have counterexamples, where a RB did well behind one line and bombed behind another?  Does anyone have an opinion, stats, or anecdotes of how much effect changing teams and O-lines has on a RB's production historically?

Not sure Travis Henry should be in the same category as Portis and Jordan.

No he was correct to have him in the list. He did not say GOOD stats, just their stats. Henry let down last year w/ BUF, let down first year w/ TEN.

 

[Byron_nyc]

I think the key to the early rounds of a draft are to get players that are known quantities.

Next year, with all of the upheaval, I'm fairly certain I'll go for a solid RB who is on the same team as before in round one, and then for Gates, Manning, Harrison type players in rounds 2 and 3. Then back to back "risky" rbs in rounds 4 and 5.

I'd hate high uncertainity players early in a draft. If you miss on your top two picks, your chances are pretty much shot.

This seems like a wise strategy, due to the many RB situations that will be high risk. Go for "locks" in the first rounds, regardless of position, guys you will by psyched to start regardless of opponent, regardless of minor injury, all year long.