2007 Draft Discussion: Linebackers (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

With free agency all but settled now and the draft just three weeks away , it’s time to start working on firming up some scouting reports on the incoming newbies. I figured I’d be the guinea pig and kick it off with the linebackers since that’s where the money is. I’m just collating my favorite scouting reports to form an initial opinion; hopefully the FBG scouts (Bloom, CC, Magaw, coolnerd, nshelat1, etal) can come in and clean up my mistakes.

I tried to project a player inside or outside, but it’s hard to pigeonhole most linebackers as clear ILBs or OLBs anymore. Plenty of undersized, quick players who look like WLBs have been successful as three down MLBs in recent seasons. And I made a semi-educated guess as to a current NFL comparison. Of course, the usual disclaimer that opportunity is more important than talent applies. With that in mind, I put these guys into tiers rather than making a top to bottom rank list.

And I left the ‘tweeners for another day.

NEAR LOCKS TO HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IDP IMPACT

Patrick Willis, Mississippi (6’1”, 240)

Would be a serious upset if Willis isn’t the #1 IDP prospect after the draft. All around player with the size/speed combination to play inside or outside in any scheme.

Comparison: Mike Peterson

Paul Posluszny, Penn State (6’2, 235)

Has some experience inside in a 3-4, but projects best as a WLB. Not as explosive a playmaker as Timmons, but has the instincts and skill set to be a stud all around backer.

Comparison: AJ Hawk

HIGH RISK-HIGH REWARD – DRAFT SPOT WILL MAKE OR BREAK

Lawrence Timmons, Florida State(6’1”, 235)

Could be the best all-around playmaking LB in this draft. Can run, hit, cover, and rush. Fits at either outside position in a 4-3 and some 3-4 teams are looking at him as well, presumably as an OLB. IDP value very dependent on opportunity/scheme.

Comparison: Donnie Edwards

Jon Beason, Miami (6’0”, 235)

Sideline to sideline backer who plays a little bigger than his size and can contribute in coverage immediately. Plays with enough leverage that some 3-4 teams have brought him in for interviews. Might work as a 4-3 MLB. Could be a stud Tampa-2 WLB or get sent to 3-4 RILB IDP purgatory.

Comparison: Jonathan Vilma

Rufus Alexander, Oklahoma (6’1”, 230)

Instinctive, rangy OLB with good pass rush ability and cover skills. Needs to be protected as a WLB as he’s not effective at taking on blockers.

Comparison: Demorrio Williams

Justin Durant, Hampton (6’1”, 230)

Small school stud who could be the total package. Has the skill set to be a solid MLB if he proves himself able to get off blocks. May need a little work in coverage, but is a potential IDP stud as a WLB in a scheme that gives him room to roam.

Comparison: Omar Gaither

SAFE BETS TO HAVE GOOD OPPORTUNITY

Brandon Siler, Miami (6’2”, 240)

Stock has been up and down due to concerns over athleticism and range. Solid between-the-tackles type inside linebacker who probably isn’t good enough in coverage to hold a three down role immediately, if ever.

Comparison: Bradie James

David Harris, Michigan (6’2”, 245)

Another ILB prospect with coverage blemishes. Lack of speed makes it very likely that he’ll land inside. Has enough size to fit as a 3-4 ILB. Questionable whether his playing instincts can make up for the lack of speed in coverage and keep him on the field in the nickel.

Comparison: Ed Hartwell (the younger, healthier version)

Buster Davis, Florida State (5’10”, 245)

Short, but powerful MLB prospect with good speed. Scouting reports differ on his ability to succeed in coverage, but I think most will end up positive in that area. Potential for very nice tackle stats in the right scheme.

Comparison: London Fletcher

FLAWED PROSPECTS WHO COULD HAVE VALUE IN THE RIGHT SCHEME AND SITUATION

Jon Abbate, Wake Forest (5’10”, 235)

This guy could be interesting. His scouting reports suggest he’s worth watching (good instincts, willing run defender who plays with good leverage, decent cover ability), but many summaries see him as too flawed to start. Would like some more opinions on him.

Comparison: Kirk Morrison

H.B. Blades, Pittsburgh (5’10”, 235)

Similar to Buster Davis as a small, instinctive, run supporting ILB but may not have the same lower body strength, speed, or cover skills. Instincts may help his playing speed enough to allow him to have an impact in the NFL.

Comparison: Zach Thomas

Earl Everett, Florida (6’2”, 235)

Prototypical rangy WLB who does everything well but may not have an elite skill that will allow him to become an elite OLB in the NFL.

Comparison: More Ian Gold than Keith Bulluck

Stewart Bradley, Nebraska (6’4”, 255)

Very good OLB prospect who may get stuck in a SLB role given his combination of size, strength, and decent cover ability. Not quick enough to be a sideline to sideline WLB or MLB. Longshot to have good IDP value.

Comparison: Scott Fujita

***Guys with one or more big weaknesses/injury who’ll need to be in a perfect situation to have immediate IDP value might include Justin Warren (Texas A&M), Zak DeOssie (Brown), Zach Latimer (Oklahoma), Desmond Bishop (Cal), Tim Shaw (Penn State), Quincy Black (New Mexico), Juwan Simpson (Alabama), Anthony Waters (Clemson).

 

[kellumsboys]

I have seen several reports of Willis possibly being limited to a 2 down roll.

one source also reports he would be a good SLB prospect , which would limit has FF value.

guess we have to wait to see where he goes.

 

[kellumsboys]

Everett at WLB for the Colts could be Gold.

 

[TheGreatest]

I am keeping a close eye on B. Davis. Has the "Z. Thomas" or "L. Flecther" type ability that could be huge if he is put into the right situation. If Carolina goes something other than LB in the first, could see them picking up Davis in the 2nd round. That would sky rocket him near the top of the list.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Dr. Jene has done an excellent job.

Y'all'll be happy to know that with today's release of the OG/C rankings, Ill be moving to the defensive side of the ball, and of course, I'll be moving onto 61-100 of the 100, where you'll find more IDPs than you find in the top half.

One LB I'll probably be looking to land is Beason, especially if he goes to Indy in the first.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks guys.

Sig, I know you've addressed this in the Shark Pool and in the Willis thread, but could you, or others who have done eyes-on evals, dispel (or not) the Willis will only be a two down LB argument? He's no Donnie Edwards, but there's been very little in the scouting services I follow closely to suggest that his cover skills are below average.

I'd also be interested in hearing extra opinions on Abbate, Warren, and Simpson.

 

[Tick]

 

[jgb95]

 

[Biabreakable]

Solid 1st post by Jene that I don't have that much to add to. Willis is looking like a can't miss prospect from this group and head and shoulders above the rest.

For defense I think a lot more depends on what team drafts these players and how they will be used for what kind of numbers we can expect from them. So for that reason I think pre-nfl draft rankings are less useful on the defensive side of the ball than they are for offensive players. While talent still rises to the top it is much more dependent on scheme for defensive players as far as how well they do statisticly.

A couple players I am looking at that have not been mentioned are:

Quincy Black ILB New Mexico - This guy looks to be a 3 down MLB or ILB with decent speed and coverage skills. He is not considered strong at the point of attack and does not take on blockers so well however. I see him as a player who could do well with strong DT play in front of him. But also a possibility as the coverage ILB in a 3-4 scheme or possible WLB in a 4-3.

Anthony Waters ILB Clemson - Somewhat the opposite of Black in that this guy has good size and strength but may only be a 2 down Lber because he is weak in coverage. Strong work ethic but he had an ACL injury last year that may cause him to slip in the NFL draft. Plays well off of blockers but may lack instincts.

Johnny Baldwin ILB Alabama A&M - I really have no information on this guy but I am curious about him because of the outstanding pro day/combine numbers on him I have seen. Strongest of the ILB prospects benching 27 times. Has good speed 4.59 40 4.32 short shuttle and agility as well 6.91 3 cone. If anyone has watched him play or knows more about him I would be curious to hear.

Tim Shaw OLB Penn State - Another player with strong work ethic and very good measurables. 4.46 40 time Benched 26 times 4.28 short shuttle 7.06 3 cone. Instinctive player with a high motor. Struggles playing off blocks and more of a tweener safety/OLB who may only find a role on special teams.

 

[Tick]

Are there any guys who could be drafted highly, but won't translate that to fantasy success? Think Carpenter from last season.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Waters and Black are definitely on the list of guys to pay close attention to during mini-camps and early training camp. They could be likened to the Abdul Hodge and Thomas Howard of 2007. Both could have serious IDP impact in the right situation.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Are there any guys who could be drafted highly, but won't translate that to fantasy success? Think Carpenter from last season.

Two that come to mind are Stewart Bradley, who's almost certainly going to end up in a SLB type role, and Lawrence Timmons, who's been mocked to Pittsburgh by some where he'd have much worse short term value than if he ends up in a Karlos Dansby or Chad Greenway type role someplace else.

 

[crazy gadget]

 

[Jene Bramel]

Quick clarification after some questions in the draft threads and a couple PMs regarding the comparisons I've made in these posts.

I intended the comparisons to be a quick way for those (like me) who don't follow college football closely or trust themselves to make a talent evaluation from watching a player in college. I am not saying I expect a given linebacker prospect to have a career like that of the comp I listed. Instead, I'm looking at a few scouting services and trying to match a size/build/skill set to a current player that even our casual IDP lurkers can quickly recognize.

In some cases, they're a little forced. I certainly don't expect this class of so-so LBs to produce bunches of Pro Bowlers so I apologize if they look misleading. They aren't meant to be taken absolutely literally.

For example, I wouldn't suggest that Buster Davis is a lock to have the career London Fletcher has had. But the player that first comes to mind when I boil a scouting report down to short, stocky, rangy, sure hitter with above average cover skills is Fletcher. HB Blades is probably never going to be Zach Thomas. It's the short, speedy, instinctive, high effort guy with some questionable measurables reminds me of Thomas.

Rozelle, in particular, made some good suggestions. It might be smarter to compare Blades to a guy like Abdul Hodge or a guy like Earl Everett to a lesser player than Ian Gold, especially in terms of future IDP potential.

The comp I'm least comfortable with in this group is Lawrence Timmons. His scouting report sounds very much like Donnie Edwards to me, but I think he could be compared to Karlos Dansby or Derrick Brooks or Chad Brown.

 

[Stunt Rock]

Thanks guys.Sig, I know you've addressed this in the Shark Pool and in the Willis thread, but could you, or others who have done eyes-on evals, dispel (or not) the Willis will only be a two down LB argument? He's no Donnie Edwards, but there's been very little in the scouting services I follow closely to suggest that his cover skills are below average.I'd also be interested in hearing extra opinions on Abbate, Warren, and Simpson.

I've seen pretty much every game he's played in his career, and I'm pretty sure he can handle coverage. He didn't have to do it a LOT in Orgeron's scheme but I remember him coming up with some big plays in coverage in clutch scenarios the past couple of years.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks StuntRock. Also reminded me to transfer this post from Chaos Commish in a Shark Pool thread this morning comparing Willis to DeMeco Ryans and AJ Hawk.

Going back a year when I thought Willis might enter the draft, I believed he graded just a notch above Ryans based on measureables because they are very similar players. Ryans went from OLB to ILB, and I have no doubt that Willis could go from ILB to WLB or SLB in a 4-3. Willis would be great stuffing the run in a 3-4, but I'd much rather see him featured in the middle of a 4-3 like Ryans. Ryans was... er... pretty good, and one of the two supposed knocks on Willis may be cause for serious concern. The first knock-- he struggles in pass coverage is false. He hasn't been asked to play much pass coverage like AD hasn't been asked to catch many balls. Peterson flashed soft hands and Willis showed off tremendous coverage ability at the Senior Bow; Three straight days he made interceptions when no one else (LBs) was getting close. The third one was vintage Julian Peterson. Great speed, huge leap, long armed snag of a ball AJ Hawk could never touch. Willis is a supreme athlete. He has no flaws athletically and will be superb in coverage. The possible serious concern may be that he isn't cut out for calling a defense. He isn't the best study and he isn't a real communicator. He has more of a soldier's personality than a general's. Not sure how true it is. I really like Ryans, Hawk and Willis. I don't think ranking them is necessary. If you're in an IDP dynasty you're fortunate to own any of them, and only time has an answer I trust.

 

[Stunt Rock]

Thanks StuntRock. Also reminded me to transfer this post from Chaos Commish in a Shark Pool thread this morning comparing Willis to DeMeco Ryans and AJ Hawk.

Going back a year when I thought Willis might enter the draft, I believed he graded just a notch above Ryans based on measureables because they are very similar players. Ryans went from OLB to ILB, and I have no doubt that Willis could go from ILB to WLB or SLB in a 4-3. Willis would be great stuffing the run in a 3-4, but I'd much rather see him featured in the middle of a 4-3 like Ryans. Ryans was... er... pretty good, and one of the two supposed knocks on Willis may be cause for serious concern. The first knock-- he struggles in pass coverage is false. He hasn't been asked to play much pass coverage like AD hasn't been asked to catch many balls. Peterson flashed soft hands and Willis showed off tremendous coverage ability at the Senior Bow; Three straight days he made interceptions when no one else (LBs) was getting close. The third one was vintage Julian Peterson. Great speed, huge leap, long armed snag of a ball AJ Hawk could never touch. Willis is a supreme athlete. He has no flaws athletically and will be superb in coverage. The possible serious concern may be that he isn't cut out for calling a defense. He isn't the best study and he isn't a real communicator. He has more of a soldier's personality than a general's. Not sure how true it is. I really like Ryans, Hawk and Willis. I don't think ranking them is necessary. If you're in an IDP dynasty you're fortunate to own any of them, and only time has an answer I trust.

I'm not sure about the communication. It might be true, but I never played with him. My understanding was that he's been making calls for Ole Miss the past couple of years, but I might be mistaken. He's a hard worker though, and a really nice guy, so even if that concern is legitimate, I'm not sure it's something that NFL level coaching and experience can't remedy.

 

[Stunt Rock]

Also, Pat Willis's team-mate, Rory Johnson, could be good value for the team that picks him up. IIRC, he's projecting 3rd/4th. He's a really solid linebacker who put up solid numbers despite sharing the field with P-Willy. While I think him declaring early was a mistake, and he'll be a project player, he's got good instincts and he'd be at least a second rounder if not late first if he'd stayed in college another year to improve his game.

 

[MHKL]

What happened to Brandon Siler?

 

[BoltBacker]

What happened to Brandon Siler?

Welcome to sunny SD!

 

[MHKL]

wonder why he slid down to 240?

 

[Biabreakable]

Johnny Baldwin ILB Alabama A&M - I really have no information on this guy but I am curious about him because of the outstanding pro day/combine numbers on him I have seen. Strongest of the ILB prospects benching 27 times. Has good speed 4.59 40 4.32 short shuttle and agility as well 6.91 3 cone. If anyone has watched him play or knows more about him I would be curious to hear.

Still don't know much about this guy however he was the only Lber drafted by the Lions this year.:spidersensetingling:

 

[Jene Bramel]

Johnny Baldwin ILB Alabama A&M - I really have no information on this guy but I am curious about him because of the outstanding pro day/combine numbers on him I have seen. Strongest of the ILB prospects benching 27 times. Has good speed 4.59 40 4.32 short shuttle and agility as well 6.91 3 cone. If anyone has watched him play or knows more about him I would be curious to hear.

Still don't know much about this guy however he was the only Lber drafted by the Lions this year.:spidersensetingling:

Mine too. I found very little on my search this afternoon other than that. One source called him an aggressive, run-and-chase type player.Awaiting Marinelli...

 

[redman]

FLAWED PROSPECTS WHO COULD HAVE VALUE IN THE RIGHT SCHEME AND SITUATION

H.B. Blades, Pittsburgh (5’10”, 235)

Similar to Buster Davis as a small, instinctive, run supporting ILB but may not have the same lower body strength, speed, or cover skills. Instincts may help his playing speed enough to allow him to have an impact in the NFL.

Comparison: Zach Thomas

I know next to nothing about this guy as a 'Skins fan. Interesting that he'll be an understudy to London Fletcher for a couple of years.

 

[jgb95]

How much impact does Beason have on James Anderson!!!!????

 

[bcr8f]

How much impact does Beason have on James Anderson!!!!????

Will he be the WLB? Who would then be MLB? If not Morgan who would play there? Seward didn't do well in coverage. Would Thomas Davis slide over and Seward play Sam? Probably not.I would expect Beason to play there eventually and Anderson at WLB.

 

[jgb95]

Sounds good to me!!!

 

[bcr8f]

The Bengals didn't draft any LB'ers.

 

[bcr8f]

Sounds good to me!!!

From Charlotte.comPAT YASINSKASpyasinskas@charlotteobserver.comBOB EIGHMIE / Special to the ObserverNo. 1 pick Jon Beason fills a need at linebacker for the Panthers.JON BEASON HEIGHT: 6-0 WEIGHT: 23740-TIME: 4.77 at the NFL Scouting Combine and as fast as 4.62 at his Pro Day.KEY STATS: Led Miami with 76 tackles last season. Made 66 tackles in 2005. Finished career with 171 tackles (104 solos) with 2.5 sacks and 18 stops for losses. Also had 10 career quarterback pressures.WHY THEY PICKED HIM: Getting insurance behind often-injured middle linebacker was a huge priority in the draft.If the scouting report on Jon Beason, the newest member of the Carolina Panthers, sounds very familiar, it's only because you've heard it before.He's a hard-hitting, sideline-to-sideline linebacker out of the University of Miami. That's precisely the same description that was used on Dan Morgan when he entered the NFL in the 2001 draft.That's why it wasn't that big of a surprise when the Panthers used a first-round pick (after trading down from No. 14 to No. 25) to draft a Morgan clone. The results from Morgan have been very good, when he's been on the field. But a series of injuries have prevented Morgan from ever playing a full season.In Beason, the Panthers are hoping for the best of both worlds: A linebacker who plays like Morgan and can stay healthy. In a perfect world, Morgan would stay in the middle and Beason would work on the weak side, where he could bolt ahead of Na'il Diggs and James Anderson on the depth chart. But there is no guarantee of a perfect world as Morgan comes back from missing most of last season with concussion problems and Beason has played both inside and outside linebacker in college.

 

[jgb95]

I think it's time for Dan to think about his future health!!!

 

[bcr8f]

I think it's time for Dan to think about his future health!!!

He probably is. His concussions come easier and quicker. Doctors have cleared him and said he's healthy but he could get another one with a mild hit in TC. He renegoltiated his contract but should know one more and he should retire.If it comes I hope he does.

 

[Thunderchicken]

 

[Rovers]

Hey Jene.... any chance your eval of Harris may have been too low? In the short time of the Tangini era, I have learned to trust their player evals, and if they traded up for Harris, they clearly REALLY like this kid. I have to admit, I don't know enough (nor have I seen enough) of Harris to have a solid opinion one way or another.

I'd love a rewrite of what you did as the thread opener now that the draft is done.... :(

 

[Jene Bramel]

Hey Jene.... any chance your eval of Harris may have been too low? In the short time of the Tangini era, I have learned to trust their player evals, and if they traded up for Harris, they clearly REALLY like this kid. I have to admit, I don't know enough (nor have I seen enough) of Harris to have a solid opinion one way or another. I'd love a rewrite of what you did as the thread opener now that the draft is done....

You remember how good Hartwell was before his legs gave out? He was a very nice player in the Raven 3-4. Anyway, the comparisons were just skill set and body type related to give myself (and others) a mental picture. Harris has to be the starting LILB for any number of reasons -- he's good, the Jets clearly targeted him and aren't happy with Barton.I'm no draftnik, as you know, so I'll be scouring for worthwhile comments (not fluff) about these guys all summer. Hopefully we'll hear good things about him in coverage, but I don't know how he stays on the field over Vilma and the rush backers at first glance.The original post looks bad from a comparison standpoint as both OZ and CC have pointed out. I left them up just for discussion's sake. At this point, we get to see them against NFL competition where we all should be comfortable making talent evaluation and predictions. Mini-camps are to me what the combine and pro days are to Bloom and the other draft guys.

 

[ATC1]

Is there any way Thomas Davis will be moved back to saftey with Beason, Morgan, Diggs, Seward and Anderson aboard?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Is there any way Thomas Davis will be moved back to saftey with Beason, Morgan, Diggs, Seward and Anderson aboard?

They said no today. I can't imagine they want to move him again and he wasn't very good in this scheme previously. It's Minter/Salley today which is .They have four others on the roster, with at least one more coming in the next few days. Any move probably won't garner headlines, and they're already shooting down the talk of linebacker Thomas Davis returning to his original spot.

Now they have Mike Minter in his farewell tour and a collection of journeymen and unprovens -- Deke Cooper, Nate Salley and former Furman standout Cam Newton.

Coach John Fox said he wanted to talk to the players involved first before sharing his projected starters, but it's most likely Minter and Salley, last year's fourth-rounder, who was initially cut but finished the year on the active roster.

The Sammy Knight mention later in the article is interesting.