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2007 draft strategy (1 Viewer)

cowpie

Footballguy
Not sure how all you guys draft, but typically, once i know what position i have in a draft, basically know what players i will have on my team before the draft even happens. I use average draft info from ant sports, info from FBG, some magazines to see what my competiors use and prior years drafts. Certain players in my league always draft a qb by the 4th round others love denver rbs or whatever. I have compiled stats and tendancies on our league same 12 owners in our redraft league for the last 5 years and the same 11 of 12 for the last 6. some always take 3 rbs in the first 3 rounds or what not.

anyways, i prepair each position and create an excel spread sheet that maximizes my position based on what if based on points projected and historic, and tend to be on the more conservative side of things.

tomlinson i would give say 250-300 points, t owens 180-220 and on and on based on our scoring system, and past performance and projections from fbg vbd. Once i enter the scoring for our league, i then print off the cheat sheet and determine who i want at each position. i usually (fake draft in rounds 1-10 ) and figure in my points for my best line up.

This method has worked for me as our league has gone on and i have gotten more experience. I am the second best team in our league statistically, making the playoff 5 out of 6 years (missed the first one) and having 5 bye weeks.in the last 3 years, I have won ,come in second or been the points leader (all of which wins something at the end).

Well wondering what your thoughts are on this and if you do the same. i would like to develop a draft strategy for 1.01 and on, and am looking for some insight.

for example,

1.01 i know i would take tomlinson #1 - i would award him 250 points

2.12 i would go RB and WR however, if manning was there i would take him, but reality is that he won't be there. but i finish out the draft through the 10th round assuming he was.

the more realistic would be that benson was there and iw ould rank the RBs that i thing would be there and would take the best available. so realistically i would rank 2.12 at james, benson, t jones. and i am pretty confident one of those guys would be there

3.01 - i then test to see what would happen to my draft if i took gates here but i don't liek the numbers and would take a wr.

so s smith and Rwayne are the guys that i would target here.

4.12 - back to RB. - j lewis, a green m lynch. if not there then i go WR and look for a driver and my excel sheet is put together like a flow chart showign or like a march madness bracket pool, but in reverse order.

5.12 mcnabb

.........

right now my team is looking like this

1.01 tomilinson

2.12 - Benson, t jones

3.01 - Wayne

4.12 - RB J lewis, a green, M lyncy t bell, or aflyer on a rb like t bell that could be great but won't make it back to me - foster

5.01 - Mcnabb

6.12 - if kitna,still here i take him other wise i go WR TE or RB best available with most upside.

7.01- v jackson if i took kitna, then i go top WR or v jackson- if i took wr, then top TE a qb that slipped. If not i take QB

8.12 - galloway/TE

anyways, you get the point. like i said a reverse march madness pool.

i do this roughly for all 12 spots until i find out my draft spot on August 1, then focus only on that one.

do you guys do the same thing?

what are your thoughts.

if you do, do this, what are the players you target for each position

right now at 1.02

i have basically the same exact draft except i am deciding for s jackson and gore

1.03 is the same too.

I am now working on 1.04 but not sure what to do there just yet.

 
Not sure how all you guys draft, but typically, once i know what position i have in a draft, basically know what players i will have on my team before the draft even happens. I use average draft info from ant sports, info from FBG, some magazines to see what my competiors use and prior years drafts. Certain players in my league always draft a qb by the 4th round others love denver rbs or whatever. I have compiled stats and tendancies on our league same 12 owners in our redraft league for the last 5 years and the same 11 of 12 for the last 6. some always take 3 rbs in the first 3 rounds or what not. anyways, i prepair each position and create an excel spread sheet that maximizes my position based on what if based on points projected and historic, and tend to be on the more conservative side of things. tomlinson i would give say 250-300 points, t owens 180-220 and on and on based on our scoring system, and past performance and projections from fbg vbd. Once i enter the scoring for our league, i then print off the cheat sheet and determine who i want at each position. i usually (fake draft in rounds 1-10 ) and figure in my points for my best line up. This method has worked for me as our league has gone on and i have gotten more experience. I am the second best team in our league statistically, making the playoff 5 out of 6 years (missed the first one) and having 5 bye weeks.in the last 3 years, I have won ,come in second or been the points leader (all of which wins something at the end). Well wondering what your thoughts are on this and if you do the same. i would like to develop a draft strategy for 1.01 and on, and am looking for some insight. for example, 1.01 i know i would take tomlinson #1 - i would award him 250 points2.12 i would go RB and WR however, if manning was there i would take him, but reality is that he won't be there. but i finish out the draft through the 10th round assuming he was. the more realistic would be that benson was there and iw ould rank the RBs that i thing would be there and would take the best available. so realistically i would rank 2.12 at james, benson, t jones. and i am pretty confident one of those guys would be there3.01 - i then test to see what would happen to my draft if i took gates here but i don't liek the numbers and would take a wr. so s smith and Rwayne are the guys that i would target here. 4.12 - back to RB. - j lewis, a green m lynch. if not there then i go WR and look for a driver and my excel sheet is put together like a flow chart showign or like a march madness bracket pool, but in reverse order. 5.12 mcnabb.........right now my team is looking like this1.01 tomilinson2.12 - Benson, t jones3.01 - Wayne 4.12 - RB J lewis, a green, M lyncy t bell, or aflyer on a rb like t bell that could be great but won't make it back to me - foster5.01 - Mcnabb6.12 - if kitna,still here i take him other wise i go WR TE or RB best available with most upside.7.01- v jackson if i took kitna, then i go top WR or v jackson- if i took wr, then top TE a qb that slipped. If not i take QB8.12 - galloway/TEanyways, you get the point. like i said a reverse march madness pool. i do this roughly for all 12 spots until i find out my draft spot on August 1, then focus only on that one. do you guys do the same thing?what are your thoughts. if you do, do this, what are the players you target for each positionright now at 1.02i have basically the same exact draft except i am deciding for s jackson and gore1.03 is the same too. I am now working on 1.04 but not sure what to do there just yet.
I do some of the same things -- projecting points, figuring which guys might fall to me, etc. -- but it's hard to gauge tendencies in our league as we've had some decent turnover the last 3-4 years. There are a core of 5-6 guys that I know pretty well, but a couple of them don't get locked on to one strategy -- and not coincidentally they've been fighting for championships the last few seasons.I do a lot of mock drafts, employing different strategies -- RB/RB, RB/WR, taking a QB early -- in an attempt to see which team is the highest scoring relative to the rankings I have for players. It's a good exercise, and if you have an ADP printout with you while you're doing it you can get a feel for where guys are going, when you can wait for a certain position and all that good stuff. I believe it's the work you do in the preseason that helps you during the season, and those who only rely on magazines are (for the most part) dead in the water.
 
I have the 1.01 in a twelve team, too. I do a lot of mocks and planning similar to you. However, knowing the owners in my league, Benson or Edge won't make it to 2.12 or 3.01. Probably Thomas Jones, but he's got a tough schedule. Also, Ahman Green, D'eangelo Williams, or M. Lynch won't make it to 4.12. So if I go WR, WR at 2/3...my 2nd RB might be pretty sketchy. Also, everyone in our league is on to Driver and last year he went early 4th.

Most of the people in the league are footballguys subscribers and use the draft dominator.

Also, everyone is pretty high on Kitna and I'd have to reach at 5.01 to get him. Otherwise my QB will be Leinart, Romo, Cutler. Which I'm not too excited about.

If I do the WR/WR at 2/3 my lineup would look like this:

1. LT

2. Terrell Owens

3. Reggie Wayne

4. Jamal Lewis (would take A.Green/D.Williams if there -- doubt it)

5. L. Coles or Plaxico Burress / Bulger if there (doubt it)

6. J. Galloway / V. Morency

7. Reggie Brown / A. Crumpler / Mark Clayton

8. M. Hasselback / Leinert / Romo / Cutler

9. L.J. Smith / G. Jennings

 
I'm at the other end of my 12 team IDP. I've gone through tons of scenarios with the DD.

The best scenario for me end up with this team:

1.11 Manning

2.2 Gates

3.11 Houshmanzadeh

4.2 D. Williams/ A. Peterson/ Lynch

5 B. Edwards

6 Morency

7 K. Rhodes

8 Kampman

9 M. Peterson

10 L. Jordan

I can't remember it exactly, but I do like the team. I know people don't see much sense in drafting Gates that early, but I've been to the Championship game the past 3 years and have drafted him in the 2nd every year.

I really like this team.

I may go with one that starts like this though:

Henry

Gates

Houshmanzadeh

McNabb

R. Brown

A. Green

 
Drafts??

You guys need to seriously take a look at the auction format....

Let's see....If I'm #10 in the draft lineup...

Here's my pre-draft cheatsheet:

L. Tomlinson

S. Jackson

L. Johnson

F. Gore

S. Alexander

B. Westbrook

W. Parker

J. Addai

R. Johnson

mmmmm...gee.....I MIGHT get C. Portis.

Hell, , maybe L. Maroney....

Dammit....RB's gone....I might as well go for C. Johnson. or maybe a QB!! C. Palmer would be good. It would be GREAT to get BOTH!! Wouldn't it?

Not BAD picks.....but I would have RATHER had one of the RB's I'll miss out on. There's no WAY I will be able to get C. Palmer AND C. Johnson on my team

Let's see...I'll make my #10 pick ...I'll hold my pee until I pick # 2.03. After that I can do alot of things....after all...I don't go again for another NINETEEN picks!! If everyone takes their 2 minute limit...I'll have 38 minutes! I could pinch a loaf...do the paperwork in the bathroom then get back to my table to scratch of the names of the guys who WONT be on my team...then....take the highest ranked player remaining on my list!!

Now, in an auction format.....I want L.T. ....I can get L.T. ......just bid another buck! :thumbup:

I want C. Johnson AND C. Palmer?? Bid another buck!!

As long as you can fit them in under your cap...you can get them!

Of course you do lose something in an auction format...

First of all...you can't go run out of the room for extended periods of time because you can bid on EVERY player that comes up for bid. There is no 20 minute lull between picks....you'll stay pretty busy....

Oh...and that "Ol Reliable" of an excuse "I KNEW that he'd do good but you got him with the pick JUST before I was going to pick him up"...goes OUT the window...

You want a player??

Bid another buck!

 
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Drafts??

You guys need to seriously take a look at the auction format....

Let's see....If I'm #10 in the draft lineup...

Here's my pre-draft cheatsheet:

L. Tomlinson

S. Jackson

L. Johnson

F. Gore

S. Alexander

B. Westbrook

W. Parker

J. Addai

R. Johnson

mmmmm...gee.....I MIGHT get C. Portis.

Hell, , maybe L. Maroney....

Dammit....RB's gone....I might as well go for C. Johnson. or maybe a QB!! C. Palmer would be good. It would be GREAT to get BOTH!! Wouldn't it?

Not BAD picks.....but I would have RATHER had one of the RB's I'll miss out on. There's no WAY I will be able to get C. Palmer AND C. Johnson on my team

Let's see...I'll make my #10 pick ...I'll hold my pee until I pick # 2.03. After that I can do alot of things....after all...I don't go again for another NINETEEN picks!!

Now, in an auction format.....I want L.T. ....I can get L.T. ......just bid another buck! :popcorn:

I want C. Johnson AND C. Palmer?? Bid another buck!!

As long as you can fit them in under your cap...you can get them!

Of course you do lose something in an auction format...

First of all...you can't go run out of the room for extended periods of time because you can bid on EVERY player that comes up for bid. There is no 20 minute lull between picks....you'll stay pretty busy....

Oh...and that "Ol Reliable" of an excuse "I KNEW that he'd do good but you got him with the pick JUST before I was going to pick him up"...goes OUT the window...

You want a player??

Bid another buck!
:confused:
 
Drafts??

You guys need to seriously take a look at the auction format....

Let's see....If I'm #10 in the draft lineup...

Here's my pre-draft cheatsheet:

L. Tomlinson

S. Jackson

L. Johnson

F. Gore

S. Alexander

B. Westbrook

W. Parker

J. Addai

R. Johnson

mmmmm...gee.....I MIGHT get C. Portis.

Hell, , maybe L. Maroney....

Dammit....RB's gone....I might as well go for C. Johnson. or maybe a QB!! C. Palmer would be good. It would be GREAT to get BOTH!! Wouldn't it?

Not BAD picks.....but I would have RATHER had one of the RB's I'll miss out on. There's no WAY I will be able to get C. Palmer AND C. Johnson on my team

Let's see...I'll make my #10 pick ...I'll hold my pee until I pick # 2.03. After that I can do alot of things....after all...I don't go again for another NINETEEN picks!!

Now, in an auction format.....I want L.T. ....I can get L.T. ......just bid another buck! :thumbup:

I want C. Johnson AND C. Palmer?? Bid another buck!!

As long as you can fit them in under your cap...you can get them!

Of course you do lose something in an auction format...

First of all...you can't go run out of the room for extended periods of time because you can bid on EVERY player that comes up for bid. There is no 20 minute lull between picks....you'll stay pretty busy....

Oh...and that "Ol Reliable" of an excuse "I KNEW that he'd do good but you got him with the pick JUST before I was going to pick him up"...goes OUT the window...

You want a player??

Bid another buck!
:bag:
:rolleyes: :mellow: Auction guys always try this. I started in auction and think it's great. But if you want LT2 or any of the other stud backs. You pay the most, just like the 1st round, then as you have less money you bid on weaker players, like the middle. And when you're really low you bid $1 like the end of a serpentine draft.

Same difference...

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Drafts??

You guys need to seriously take a look at the auction format....

Let's see....If I'm #10 in the draft lineup...

Here's my pre-draft cheatsheet:

L. Tomlinson

S. Jackson

L. Johnson

F. Gore

S. Alexander

B. Westbrook

W. Parker

J. Addai

R. Johnson

mmmmm...gee.....I MIGHT get C. Portis.

Hell, , maybe L. Maroney....

Dammit....RB's gone....I might as well go for C. Johnson. or maybe a QB!! C. Palmer would be good. It would be GREAT to get BOTH!! Wouldn't it?

Not BAD picks.....but I would have RATHER had one of the RB's I'll miss out on. There's no WAY I will be able to get C. Palmer AND C. Johnson on my team

Let's see...I'll make my #10 pick ...I'll hold my pee until I pick # 2.03. After that I can do alot of things....after all...I don't go again for another NINETEEN picks!!

Now, in an auction format.....I want L.T. ....I can get L.T. ......just bid another buck! :thumbup:

I want C. Johnson AND C. Palmer?? Bid another buck!!

As long as you can fit them in under your cap...you can get them!

Of course you do lose something in an auction format...

First of all...you can't go run out of the room for extended periods of time because you can bid on EVERY player that comes up for bid. There is no 20 minute lull between picks....you'll stay pretty busy....

Oh...and that "Ol Reliable" of an excuse "I KNEW that he'd do good but you got him with the pick JUST before I was going to pick him up"...goes OUT the window...

You want a player??

Bid another buck!
:bag:
:rolleyes: :mellow: Auction guys alway try this. I started in auction and tink it's great. But IF You want LT2 or any of the other stud backs. You pay the most, just like the 1st round, then as you have less money you bid on weaker players, like the middle. And when you're really low you bid $1 like the end of a serpentine draft.

Same difference...
I have never played in an auction, and won't this year. But even never having played in one, I know there is one major flaw in what you just said...in an auction, EVERY owner has an EQUAL chance to get LT or any other player. The results of the teams having LT may be similar, but the fact that everyone has an equal chance to get him makes it a LOT different. The more I read, the more I know that I will play in an auction league next year. The above is the main reason why.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I agree that auction is better, but there will always be redraft, so we need these threads as well.

 

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