Yeah, the RBs are also what I am watching carefully. However, with a big class of great RBs, it begs the question of what teams will actually have the need and be drafting a RB into a situation where they can quickly become a fantasy stud?
CLE: most likely destination for a top back because they'll have a high pick and Lewis' contract is up
ARI: probably not for another year unless Edge totally falls apart
ATL: Dunn is done, will they draft a RBBC partner for Norwood?
DAL: Both Barber and Jones' contracts are up. Do they let both of them go and draft a workhorse rookie?
GB: May draft a 1st rd RB if Jackson doesn't pan out
HOU: Green probably will need to be replaced by next year.
NYJ: Maybe if Thomas Jones continues to fall flat
SEA: Is Alexander at the end of the line?
I don't really see many situations where a rookie back could come in and be a workhorse back within a year or two. Maybe Cleveland or Houston? Also, most believe Turner will be starting somewhere and possibly Portis or Betts will be traded to a team needing a starter too, so who will want a 1st round RB?
One of the things that makes the 2008 draft tricky for RBs is how many good ones there appears to be at this time and the fact that the highest rated RBs eligible for the draft are underclassman. Some of the RBs are definite first round talents but may fall because of the depth of RBs and this will probably lead to more RBs staying in school than folks expect... If most of them come out, though, many teams will have the opportunity to get very good RBs in the second and even the third round but there doesn't appear to be a lot of situations where they'd start from day one. And I think with a deep RB class, many teams will take the opportunity to improve their team by spending a first day pick on a back. While some of these situations will be great for fans of these franchises, they'll be bleak for FFers.
Here's a few more teams that stand to improve by spending a first day pick on an RB and should be monitored by FFers.
Oakland: They seem like a favorite to spend a first-rounder on either a RB or WR since they could stand to improve at both spots but if they select a RB he will probably share time with Jordan IF the Raiders keep him around, which isn't a certainty... Oakland could end up being a very good spot for top RB.
Cincinnati: Irons' injury probably puts them in the market to spend at least a 3rd rounder on an RB should the class be deep but that RB will probably share carries for at least a few years with Rudi. I could see a pretty good RB going here but not having much fantasy impact for some time.
Baltimore: Sure they got McGahee but if his YPC remain on the south side of 4.0 I don't see how they could ignore the position in the draft and I expect them to look long and hard and finding a replacement/compliment to him. But it's unlikely that a young RB could unseat McGahee completely.
Jax: They love the committee they got and I doubt they really want MJD to carry too much of the load. They could look for Taylor's replacement in next year's draft...
San Diego: Dynasty leaguers will want to pay attention to this situation since we all know how quickly RBs hit the wall. LTs getting long in the tooth and Turner is likely gone... But whoever gets drafted here will probably have to wait for LT to hit that wall before they get their opportunity.
Tampa Bay: I don't expect a first-round selection but I think they wish they had more talent to share the load with Carnell, who seems to constantly brake. They could spend one of their top three picks on a RB if a guy they like is there.
Chicago: This will depend on how Benson performs but if they struggle to run the ball this year, don't be surprised if they spend a second or third on a compliment to the head case.
New York Giants: I know there's hype around Jacobs but FFers should be skeptical of his future considering his size and NFL history regarding large backs... That said, the Giants may be in the market for a Tiki-like back...
Seattle: See above post.
Two very important teams in next year's draft, in my opinion will be Seattle and SD. Much like NE last year (although Dillon wasn't the talent SA or LT are) or KC a few years ago, I think Seattle and SD should be considered favorites to spend a first rounder on their star's heir apparent. If either of these teams select a first round RB, you can expect dynasty owners to go bananas over that player but probably get little returns for a couple years. Think LJ as opposed to Maroney.
But I'd be very surprised if GB spends a first rounder one year after taking Jackson in the second... Especially with as many holes as that team has. Jackson not a super stud but he'll get better and will probably be serviceable enough that it won't be a big enough need for the Pack.
I think the talk that there are very few teams that need an RB comes from a fantasy perspective but the reality is that at least half of the teams in the NFL are likely to look long and hard at improving their teams by selecting a RB in the top three rounds and it will just depend on whether guys they value fall to them or not... And so far, there's about 6-8 very strong RB prospects for next year (that are likely to be selected in the top two rounds) and then several more that could be situational type players selected in rounds four and later. It's going to be a very fun offseason as players start declaring and others claim to stay in school...
Stay tuned.
