2008 Rookie Draft Picks (1 Viewer)

[awesomeness]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

 

[EBF]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

That's what he's saying. Whether or not he's right remains to be seen, but most of the reports I've read haven't been too cheery about Woodson. The general consensus seems to be that this is not a very strong QB class at the top. I think Ryan/Brohm/Woodson are closer to Leftwich/Boller/Grossman than Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger. Time will tell.

 

[JetMaxx]

I knew Tony when he was just getting started. Great guy. Saw him a number of times at the draft and he even got me access to the press area with him at the Garden Theater one year. He works hard at what he does and it's nice to see him rewarded with a gig at SI.

 

[awesomeness]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

That's what he's saying. Whether or not he's right remains to be seen, but most of the reports I've read haven't been too cheery about Woodson. The general consensus seems to be that this is not a very strong QB class at the top. I think Ryan/Brohm/Woodson are closer to Leftwich/Boller/Grossman than Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger. Time will tell.

Im not a huge Woodson fan, and even though a lot of people are saying he hasnt been looking great at the senior bowl, there's no way he isnt picked in the first 2 rounds.

 

[loose circuits]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

That's what he's saying. Whether or not he's right remains to be seen, but most of the reports I've read haven't been too cheery about Woodson. The general consensus seems to be that this is not a very strong QB class at the top. I think Ryan/Brohm/Woodson are closer to Leftwich/Boller/Grossman than Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger. Time will tell.

Im not a huge Woodson fan, and even though a lot of people are saying he hasnt been looking great at the senior bowl, there's no way he isnt picked in the first 2 rounds.

if I was going to take a developmental athletic QB, why not roll with Josh Johnson rather than reach for Woodson. Johnson has great release and has played in a pro style offense while being tutored by a former decent NFL QB and football mind in Jim Harbaugh.Woodson seems to be falling hard while other guys are rising to the top.

 

[coolnerd]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.

Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.

Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

That's what he's saying. Whether or not he's right remains to be seen, but most of the reports I've read haven't been too cheery about Woodson. The general consensus seems to be that this is not a very strong QB class at the top. I think Ryan/Brohm/Woodson are closer to Leftwich/Boller/Grossman than Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger. Time will tell.

Im not a huge Woodson fan, and even though a lot of people are saying he hasnt been looking great at the senior bowl, there's no way he isnt picked in the first 2 rounds.

if I was going to take a developmental athletic QB, why not roll with Josh Johnson rather than reach for Woodson. Johnson has great release and has played in a pro style offense while being tutored by a former decent NFL QB and football mind in Jim Harbaugh.Woodson seems to be falling hard while other guys are rising to the top.

Woodson is classic drop back passer.

 

[loose circuits]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.

Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.

Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

That's what he's saying. Whether or not he's right remains to be seen, but most of the reports I've read haven't been too cheery about Woodson. The general consensus seems to be that this is not a very strong QB class at the top. I think Ryan/Brohm/Woodson are closer to Leftwich/Boller/Grossman than Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger. Time will tell.

Im not a huge Woodson fan, and even though a lot of people are saying he hasnt been looking great at the senior bowl, there's no way he isnt picked in the first 2 rounds.

if I was going to take a developmental athletic QB, why not roll with Josh Johnson rather than reach for Woodson. Johnson has great release and has played in a pro style offense while being tutored by a former decent NFL QB and football mind in Jim Harbaugh.Woodson seems to be falling hard while other guys are rising to the top.

Woodson is classic drop back passer.

Josh Johsnon is as well. You don't throw 40some TD's and less than a handfull of picks if you're not a drop back passer. Harbaugh seems to have done a good job with him...Woodson's size and mobility is a reason they like him though?

 

[coolnerd]

Some harsh words from Tony Pauline, who used to be one of the analysts for Scout.com and now works for Sports Illustrated:

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii: Brennan had a lot to gain this week but in the end fell short. His poor arm strength is troubling, as it gave defensive backs more than enough time to break up his passes. Scouts feel there is a place for Brennan as a backup signal-caller in a timing offense, yet most agree he presently grades as a mid-to-late round draft pick.

Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky: Woodson's arm strength was not questioned, but his terrible accuracy and pass placement has scouts concerned. His receivers were constantly slowing up in routes or reaching back to grab errant passes. He was considered a potential first-round choice prior to the Senior Bowl, but is now likely to fall out of the initial two frames.

Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: Bowman had his troubles from the start, dropping passes daily while displaying minimal speed to his game. He showed signs of improvement during the final day, but it won't be enough to keep him in the draft's first 60 picks.

Brennan was a likely late pick anyway, but this is a big arrow down on Bowman and Woodson.

So this guy thinks that Woodson won't be picked in either the first or 2nd round?

That's what he's saying. Whether or not he's right remains to be seen, but most of the reports I've read haven't been too cheery about Woodson. The general consensus seems to be that this is not a very strong QB class at the top. I think Ryan/Brohm/Woodson are closer to Leftwich/Boller/Grossman than Manning/Rivers/Roethlisberger. Time will tell.

Im not a huge Woodson fan, and even though a lot of people are saying he hasnt been looking great at the senior bowl, there's no way he isnt picked in the first 2 rounds.

if I was going to take a developmental athletic QB, why not roll with Josh Johnson rather than reach for Woodson. Johnson has great release and has played in a pro style offense while being tutored by a former decent NFL QB and football mind in Jim Harbaugh.Woodson seems to be falling hard while other guys are rising to the top.

Woodson is classic drop back passer.

Josh Johsnon is as well. You don't throw 40some TD's and less than a handfull of picks if your not a drop back passer. Harbaugh seems to have done a good job with him...Woodson's size and mobility is a reason they like him though?

Woodson' s moblity is average, nothing is special about his overall athletic ability. He will he able to scramble if there is a wide open lane, but won't do anything difference making with movement. Johnson seems to have special skill both with his feet and arms. If Johnson went to a large university we might be talking about a first rounder.

 

[Iron_Far]

Final update until the draft.

 

[jeter23]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

I know his stock is dropping, but NO WAY he falls out of round two.

 

[EBF]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

I know his stock is dropping, but NO WAY he falls out of round two.

I've seen him ranked as low as the 11th RB in the draft. He's a 190 pound back coming off a terrible season. It's possible that he'll go anywhere between rounds 2-4.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

I know his stock is dropping, but NO WAY he falls out of round two.

I've seen him ranked as low as the 11th RB in the draft. He's a 190 pound back coming off a terrible season. It's possible that he'll go anywhere between rounds 2-4.

I was talking about rookie drafts, not the NFL draft.

 

[EBF]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

I know his stock is dropping, but NO WAY he falls out of round two.

I've seen him ranked as low as the 11th RB in the draft. He's a 190 pound back coming off a terrible season. It's possible that he'll go anywhere between rounds 2-4.

I was talking about rookie drafts, not the NFL draft.

Oh, sorry. It will be hard for him to fall outside the top 20 in rookie drafts given his name recognition value.

 

[el centro]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

I know his stock is dropping, but NO WAY he falls out of round two.

I've seen him ranked as low as the 11th RB in the draft. He's a 190 pound back coming off a terrible season. It's possible that he'll go anywhere between rounds 2-4.

I was talking about rookie drafts, not the NFL draft.

Oh, sorry. It will be hard for him to fall outside the top 20 in rookie drafts given his name recognition value.

Given the propensity for RBs to go quickly in Rookie Drafts, and the emergence of late-round picks in `07 (Bradshaw, K Smith)... not to mention a very weak QB class & a so-so WR class... I would be surprised to Slaton slip past the 14-18.

 

[EBF]

Final update until the draft.

No Steve Slaton in the top two rounds? Did you forget him, or do you just not like him?

I know his stock is dropping, but NO WAY he falls out of round two.

I've seen him ranked as low as the 11th RB in the draft. He's a 190 pound back coming off a terrible season. It's possible that he'll go anywhere between rounds 2-4.

I was talking about rookie drafts, not the NFL draft.

Oh, sorry. It will be hard for him to fall outside the top 20 in rookie drafts given his name recognition value.

Given the propensity for RBs to go quickly in Rookie Drafts, and the emergence of late-round picks in `07 (Bradshaw, K Smith)... not to mention a very weak QB class & a so-so WR class... I would be surprised to Slaton slip past the 14-18.

You're probably right.

 

[Iron_Far]

Argh, forgot to re include slaton after he came to his senses and declared.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

why isn't this pinned anymore?

 

[loose circuits]

wow, I followed this thread off and on. I had no idea we would be so far off

Yvenson Bernard- really?

I just don't think you can underrate some of these backs. Most of them have great track records and each of them has some skills they bring to the table. I also think the WR's could fall because the group of around 7 guys that could be interchangable. If nobody stands out to you at WR, then you may be able to go RB in the 1st and get an equally valued wr in the 2nd. Obviously, it also depends on team need, but I see a very heavy RB top 2 rounds.

I even wanted to find a spot for BenJarvus. I love his no nonsense power running style- he reminds me a lot of Ryan Grant and at the least I think he'll have a short yardage role. Allen Patrick may also find a spot in the top 2 rounds, but I'm not sure about his injury. We'll have to wait and see if he can go at the combine.

1) DMC

2) Stewart

3) Mendenhall

4) Charles

5) F. Jones

6) R. Rice

7) C. Johnson

8) K. Smith (non-PPR I'd probably bump him to 7)

9) M. Ryan

10) M. Forte (depending on his combine he could rise or fall)

11) T. Choice

12) Brohm

13) Slaton

14) Forsett

15) M. Hart

16) Manningham

17) Hardy (have to love the upside)

18) D. Savage

19) Malcolm Kelly

20) Desean Jackson

21) L. Sweed

22) Thomas Brown

23) C. Boyd

24) Chad Henne

honorable mention and could move in depending on combine: Flacco, Joe Johnson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Andre Caldwell, Devin Thomas, A. Patrick (injury concerns)

 

[aposulli]

wow, I followed this thread off and on. I had no idea we would be so far offYvenson Bernard- really?I just don't think you can underrate some of these backs. Most of them have great track records and each of them has some skills they bring to the table. I also think the WR's could fall because the group of around 7 guys that could be interchangable. If nobody stands out to you at WR, then you may be able to go RB in the 1st and get an equally valued wr in the 2nd. Obviously, it also depends on team need, but I see a very heavy RB top 2 rounds. I even wanted to find a spot for BenJarvus. I love his no nonsense power running style- he reminds me a lot of Ryan Grant and at the least I think he'll have a short yardage role. Allen Patrick may also find a spot in the top 2 rounds, but I'm not sure about his injury. We'll have to wait and see if he can go at the combine.1) DMC2) Stewart3) Mendenhall4) Charles 5) F. Jones6) R. Rice7) C. Johnson8) K. Smith (non-PPR I'd probably bump him to 7)9) M. Ryan10) M. Forte (depending on his combine he could rise or fall)11) T. Choice12) Brohm13) Slaton14) Forsett15) M. Hart16) Manningham17) Hardy (have to love the upside)18) D. Savage19) Malcolm Kelly20) Desean Jackson21) L. Sweed22) Thomas Brown23) C. Boyd24) Chad Hennehonorable mention and could move in depending on combine: Flacco, Joe Johnson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Andre Caldwell, Devin Thomas, A. Patrick (injury concerns)

Yvenson Bernard has just about as impressive a track record as any of these guys, and who knows- we might see an NFL team reach on him on Day 1 ala Garrett Wolfe last year with the Bears.I think this RB class, although impressive, is looking even better than they probably should partly because of the lack of elite QB/WR talent.On the other hand, I am a big fan of BGE. Nice list.

 

[Rodeojones]

wow, I followed this thread off and on. I had no idea we would be so far off



Yvenson Bernard- really?

Yvenson Bernard is definatley flying under the radar due to the lack of national exposure at Oregon State. Over his Soph/Jun/Senior years, Bernard averaged 1300 yards, 12 tds, and 40 receptions per season. He reminds me alot of Joseph Addai and even though he is not a top tier guy, he is very talented and should be mentioned with the Matt Forte's/Kevin Smith's of the world.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

i can't wait for the draft! i picked up 2.06 & 2.07, so i now have 4 of the first 20 picks. & man oh man do i need them!

 

[aposulli]

wow, I followed this thread off and on. I had no idea we would be so far off



Yvenson Bernard- really?

Yvenson Bernard is definatley flying under the radar due to the lack of national exposure at Oregon State. Over his Soph/Jun/Senior years, Bernard averaged 1300 yards, 12 tds, and 40 receptions per season. He reminds me alot of Joseph Addai and even though he is not a top tier guy, he is very talented and should be mentioned with the Matt Forte's/Kevin Smith's of the world.

All of those guys are much bigger than Bernard, who compares more favorably to Forsett.

 

[Rodeojones]

wow, I followed this thread off and on. I had no idea we would be so far off



Yvenson Bernard- really?

Yvenson Bernard is definatley flying under the radar due to the lack of national exposure at Oregon State. Over his Soph/Jun/Senior years, Bernard averaged 1300 yards, 12 tds, and 40 receptions per season. He reminds me alot of Joseph Addai and even though he is not a top tier guy, he is very talented and should be mentioned with the Matt Forte's/Kevin Smith's of the world.

All of those guys are much bigger than Bernard, who compares more favorably to Forsett.

I was comparing Bernard's talent to that of Forte/Smith and that he should be mentioned in the same breath.Joseph Addai = 6'0 205 pounds.

Yvenson Bernard = 5'9 202.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I would like to see trades being posted here as far as rookie picks

What did it take to move into the top spot?

The top 3?

The top 5?

etc.

 

[cstu]

I would like to see trades being posted here as far as rookie picksWhat did it take to move into the top spot?The top 3?The top 5?etc.

I traded the 1.03 and 1.13 for Portis and Santana Moss. I valued the 1.03 as a top 15 RB.

 

[MAC_32]

I have a proposal out right now for the other guys 2009 1st round rookie pick for my Thomas Jones and 2.12 rookie pick.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I have a proposal out right now for the other guys 2009 1st round rookie pick for my Thomas Jones and 2.12 rookie pick.

Wrong forum, but take the deal, especially if the guys team is not that good.

 

[MAC_32]

I have a proposal out right now for the other guys 2009 1st round rookie pick for my Thomas Jones and 2.12 rookie pick.

Wrong forum, but take the deal, especially if the guys team is not that good.

I was responding to the poster above asking about trade value for rookie picks. Of course I'm going to take that deal, I proposed it. And, yes, his team does not look good for 2008. He has zero RB depth due to Caddy's health issues, hence why Thomas Jones has value for him, and his WR situation is just as bad. I'm envisioning some combo of Tebow, Harvin, and Crabtree on my team in the near future and want to make sure I get at least one of them.

 

[EBF]

New Mendenhall highlights on YouTube:

Some posters have questioned his suddenness and lateral quickness. I would say the double cut at 0:50 should put those doubts to rest. There aren't a whole lot of RBs who can do that.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

New Mendenhall highlights on YouTube:

Nice stuff there. Just posted the BDTT thread on Mendenhall. Very interesting discussion ahead comparing the top 3 guys, and possibly adding Felix Jones. Really looking forward to it leading up to the draft.

 

[corpcow]

New Mendenhall highlights on YouTube:

After watching that, I have to say Mendenhall certainly looks like a workhorse pro RB.

 

[corpcow]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

 

[higgins]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I'm facing the same dilemma at 1.05...

 

[aposulli]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall ETA: Dreaming of Ray Rice in Houston... (drooooool)

 

[aposulli]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I'm facing the same dilemma at 1.05...

The problem is, if you are in a league with at least half-wits, they are aware that there are only three (almost) guaranteed 1st Round RB prospects. Felix Jones also seems to be getting alot of support from the experts. But with Slaton's stock tumbling and questions about Rice's size and speed, no expert is pegging any RB beyond that as even a 2nd Round lock. I do see alot of love for Charles but I'm not sure anyone is looking to move into that 5 spot to draft him. I sure wouldn't.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Right now, before the NFL draft, i would say the value of the top picks tiers something like this:

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

In a non-PPR all the picks will, or at least should be RB's, probably should also be in PPR's as well.

 

[EBF]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

 

[aposulli]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.

 

[sparkky]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I'm facing the same dilemma at 1.05...

in a 12 team, PPR, standard scoring, dynasty, NON IDP, 30 man roster;I offered 1.5 and 1.12 FOR 1.4 and was turned down. counter offer of 1.4, Bulger w/backup FOR 1.5, Brees w/backup which I turned down. YMMV

 

[EBF]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.

Definitely possible. I just don't think people should draft under the assumption that a second tier back in a good situation = Mendenhall or Stewart. Most of the worst picks in my rookie drafts have been when an owner has reached for a marginally talented RB in the top 3-6 picks. Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Mike Hart, and Tashard Choice all have flaws as prospects, which is why they won't be taken in the first round. One or two of those guys will probably become good NFL players, but it's important to realize that most of them will never amount to much.

 

[aposulli]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.

Definitely possible. I just don't think people should draft under the assumption that a second tier back in a good situation = Mendenhall or Stewart. Most of the worst picks in my rookie drafts have been when an owner has reached for a marginally talented RB in the top 3-6 picks. Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Mike Hart, and Tashard Choice all have flaws as prospects, which is why they won't be taken in the first round. One or two of those guys will probably become good NFL players, but it's important to realize that most of them will never amount to much.

Well one thing to keep in mind, that I guess I didn't make clear... my point was that right now it's going to cost alot more to move up from 1.5 to 1.3 than it may after the draft. Because right now, all 1.3 owners have in mind is that Mendenhall/Stewart are much more highly ranked, therefore they will ask the farm to trade down 1-2 spots. (As we can tell by the previous post)If Houston or Cleveland doesn't sign a big-time FA and drafts a guy like Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Charles, or Rice.... then that players' perceived value will be much higher than it was going into the draft therefore making the gap between 2/3 and 4/5 smaller.I'm not saying Charles in Houston = Mendenhall in ATL by any means, but at least with that gap seemingly lessened, that it might be easier to then make that trade-up.

 

[Gamma1210]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.

Definitely possible. I just don't think people should draft under the assumption that a second tier back in a good situation = Mendenhall or Stewart. Most of the worst picks in my rookie drafts have been when an owner has reached for a marginally talented RB in the top 3-6 picks. Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Mike Hart, and Tashard Choice all have flaws as prospects, which is why they won't be taken in the first round. One or two of those guys will probably become good NFL players, but it's important to realize that most of them will never amount to much.

Well one thing to keep in mind, that I guess I didn't make clear... my point was that right now it's going to cost alot more to move up from 1.5 to 1.3 than it may after the draft. Because right now, all 1.3 owners have in mind is that Mendenhall/Stewart are much more highly ranked, therefore they will ask the farm to trade down 1-2 spots. (As we can tell by the previous post)If Houston or Cleveland doesn't sign a big-time FA and drafts a guy like Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Charles, or Rice.... then that players' perceived value will be much higher than it was going into the draft therefore making the gap between 2/3 and 4/5 smaller.I'm not saying Charles in Houston = Mendenhall in ATL by any means, but at least with that gap seemingly lessened, that it might be easier to then make that trade-up.

I agree here. In one league I have 1.2 and 1.4 and I enquired about moving up from 1.4 to 1.3 and the price was way too high, so I think I will wait until after the draft and see where Felix Jones goes and I bet I will have a lot of people asking about that pick then. I think the same can be said for 1.5 and maybe even 1.6. I agree with EBF that the talents there will be less but I can picture a Ray Rice getting drafted by CHI in the 2nd or 3rd and owners getting real excited and the price going up.So overall, I would say buy 1.4 and 1.5 now if your leaguemates are thinking like EBF and then turn around and sell post draft. I think you could have made a lot last year doing this with 1.4 and selling to someone who thought Brandon Jackson would be the starter in GB.

 

[aposulli]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.

Definitely possible. I just don't think people should draft under the assumption that a second tier back in a good situation = Mendenhall or Stewart. Most of the worst picks in my rookie drafts have been when an owner has reached for a marginally talented RB in the top 3-6 picks. Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Mike Hart, and Tashard Choice all have flaws as prospects, which is why they won't be taken in the first round. One or two of those guys will probably become good NFL players, but it's important to realize that most of them will never amount to much.

Well one thing to keep in mind, that I guess I didn't make clear... my point was that right now it's going to cost alot more to move up from 1.5 to 1.3 than it may after the draft. Because right now, all 1.3 owners have in mind is that Mendenhall/Stewart are much more highly ranked, therefore they will ask the farm to trade down 1-2 spots. (As we can tell by the previous post)If Houston or Cleveland doesn't sign a big-time FA and drafts a guy like Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Charles, or Rice.... then that players' perceived value will be much higher than it was going into the draft therefore making the gap between 2/3 and 4/5 smaller.I'm not saying Charles in Houston = Mendenhall in ATL by any means, but at least with that gap seemingly lessened, that it might be easier to then make that trade-up.

I agree here. In one league I have 1.2 and 1.4 and I enquired about moving up from 1.4 to 1.3 and the price was way too high, so I think I will wait until after the draft and see where Felix Jones goes and I bet I will have a lot of people asking about that pick then. I think the same can be said for 1.5 and maybe even 1.6. I agree with EBF that the talents there will be less but I can picture a Ray Rice getting drafted by CHI in the 2nd or 3rd and owners getting real excited and the price going up.So overall, I would say buy 1.4 and 1.5 now if your leaguemates are thinking like EBF and then turn around and sell post draft. I think you could have made a lot last year doing this with 1.4 and selling to someone who thought Brandon Jackson would be the starter in GB.

The ultimate shark move. I don't know if it would be very easy to pull off, but it's worth a shot!

 

[EBF]

Is it worth moving from 1.04 to 1.02 or 1.03, and if so how much would you be willing to give up to move up/how much would it take for you to make the trade?

I wouldn't be so quick to trade up, at least until after the Draft. There may not be much of a difference in perceived value between 1.2 and 1.4 (or even 1.5).After McFadden (who's perceived value and inevidible top-10 NFL pick status will almost gurantee him 1.1 in every draft), then you have Stewart and Mendenhall who should both be NFL 1st Rounders. I think the only thing that will separate their fantasy draft value will be the team they go to.But in taking a look at some teams' (potentiallY) big hole at RB (Oak, Hou, Cle, Sea, Den etc.)... guys like Ray Rice and Felix Jones could get put into an IDEAL situation, which would then not look like such a significant dropoff from 1.2 when you're talking 4th overall.On the plus side, Mendenhall I would say is far more likely to become an every-down 'back regardless of where he lands, but in the right scheme, Rice and Jones I think could be just as valuable.....As you can tell, I'm optimistic... since I have #5 overall

I disagree. There are only 3-4 legitimate first round RB talents in this draft class: Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones. If you have a high rookie pick then I think you need to find a way to get one of these guys on your team because there's a significant talent difference between them and the rest of the field.Don't believe the hype about the second and third tier guys. In the end, even if those players land in ideal situations they probably don't have the talent needed to survive as starters in the league. Consider the recent optimism in rookie drafts for other second tier RBs who were drafted into favorable situations: Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Michael Bush, Brian Calhoun, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton, Vernand Morency, Ryan Moats, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Onterrio Smith, Justin Fargas, and Lee Suggs. How many of these guys do you want on your FF team? Granted, there have also been some success stories (Gore, Portis, MJD), but the odds are not very good. Guys who fall into the 2nd-3rd round usually do so for a reason. I think this class will probably yield 1-2 surprise backs, but most of the guys in that second and third tier area will fail to make a major dent at the pro level. It's worth moving up for Stewart or Mendenhall if you can get a decent price.

I agree with your value assesment of the picks 1.1-1.6. The problem is... I think that it's also obvious to most owners, and I'd think it would cost a pretty penny to move up only 1 or 2 spots.

Definitely possible. I just don't think people should draft under the assumption that a second tier back in a good situation = Mendenhall or Stewart. Most of the worst picks in my rookie drafts have been when an owner has reached for a marginally talented RB in the top 3-6 picks. Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Matt Forte, Mike Hart, and Tashard Choice all have flaws as prospects, which is why they won't be taken in the first round. One or two of those guys will probably become good NFL players, but it's important to realize that most of them will never amount to much.

Well one thing to keep in mind, that I guess I didn't make clear... my point was that right now it's going to cost alot more to move up from 1.5 to 1.3 than it may after the draft. Because right now, all 1.3 owners have in mind is that Mendenhall/Stewart are much more highly ranked, therefore they will ask the farm to trade down 1-2 spots. (As we can tell by the previous post)If Houston or Cleveland doesn't sign a big-time FA and drafts a guy like Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Charles, or Rice.... then that players' perceived value will be much higher than it was going into the draft therefore making the gap between 2/3 and 4/5 smaller.I'm not saying Charles in Houston = Mendenhall in ATL by any means, but at least with that gap seemingly lessened, that it might be easier to then make that trade-up.

Yea, I'll agree with that. Another thing to consider is the possibility of Mendenhall or Stewart being drafted into a bad short-term situation like DeAngelo Williams, Chris Perry, Larry Johnson, or Steven Jackson. If that happens and someone like Ray Rice lands on the Seahawks or Broncos then the trade gap could shrink.

 

[coolnerd]

If I have picks 4-6, I hoping that the draft plays out as nomal. that is at least one of the top 3-4 players goes a less than ideal situation, while Tashard choices and Kevin smiths of the world go to teams that "need" a RB. this would either allow me to sell the pick for more than its worth or wait for somebody to select situation over talent.

Edit:

With no true elite WR or QB, i can see 8 to 10 RBs off the board in many leagues before anyone messes with Kelly, Jackson or ryan.

 

[aposulli]

If I have picks 4-6, I hoping that the draft plays out as nomal. that is at least one of the top 3-4 players goes a less than ideal situation, while Tashard choices and Kevin smiths of the world go to teams that "need" a RB. this would either allow me to sell the pick for more than its worth or wait for somebody to select situation over talent.Edit:With no true elite WR or QB, i can see 8 to 10 RBs off the board in many leagues before anyone messes with Kelly, Jackson or ryan.

Situation will dictate where in a fantasy draft these second-tier RBs get picked. And in most situations, they will be draft as backups or, at best, change of pace guys. The RBs being drafted in the 2nd-3rd Round to less-than-ideal situations won't get drafted over guys like Ryan, Kelly, or Jackson who could be picked in the top half of Rd.1 in the NFL draft.ETA: I would predict four non-RBs to go in the top 12 of a normal (non-PPR) fantasy draft.

 

[coolnerd]

If I have picks 4-6, I hoping that the draft plays out as nomal. that is at least one of the top 3-4 players goes a less than ideal situation, while Tashard choices and Kevin smiths of the world go to teams that "need" a RB. this would either allow me to sell the pick for more than its worth or wait for somebody to select situation over talent.Edit:With no true elite WR or QB, i can see 8 to 10 RBs off the board in many leagues before anyone messes with Kelly, Jackson or ryan.

Situation will dictate where in a fantasy draft these second-tier RBs get picked. And in most situations, they will be draft as backups or, at best, change of pace guys. The RBs being drafted in the 2nd-3rd Round to less-than-ideal situations won't get drafted over guys like Ryan, Kelly, or Jackson who could be picked in the top half of Rd.1 in the NFL draft.ETA: I would predict four non-RBs to go in the top 12 of a normal (non-PPR) fantasy draft.

I am not in real disagreement with 4 of the top 12...Remember I said 8-10 RBs (leaving 2-4 non), but my guess is that with rare exception none of those non-RB will occur in the top six picks. I remember a turd like mo clarett was sneaking into the late first round of FF drafts. I am not implying that you, specifically will be the one to take the marginal RB over a solid WR in a good situation, but it will happen repeatedly this FF season. It always does with RBs.this draft already has the hype (correct or not) by a good percentage of the fantasy world as being a great RB draft, I think there will be a run of backs that come off somewhere between the mid 2nd round to early forth and this is going to yield plenty of false hopes in the dyanasty world. Recall, that Alex Smith was number 1 overall and I know that year he was maybe the 9-10th player off the boards. and at WR while Malcolm Kelly or Jackson maybe the 1st selections of the NFL draft, how much more of a chance do these guys have of being a true FF number 1 than does Sweed, Ducett or Andre Caldwell?

 

[aposulli]

If I have picks 4-6, I hoping that the draft plays out as nomal. that is at least one of the top 3-4 players goes a less than ideal situation, while Tashard choices and Kevin smiths of the world go to teams that "need" a RB. this would either allow me to sell the pick for more than its worth or wait for somebody to select situation over talent.

Edit:

With no true elite WR or QB, i can see 8 to 10 RBs off the board in many leagues before anyone messes with Kelly, Jackson or ryan.

Situation will dictate where in a fantasy draft these second-tier RBs get picked. And in most situations, they will be draft as backups or, at best, change of pace guys. The RBs being drafted in the 2nd-3rd Round to less-than-ideal situations won't get drafted over guys like Ryan, Kelly, or Jackson who could be picked in the top half of Rd.1 in the NFL draft.ETA: I would predict four non-RBs to go in the top 12 of a normal (non-PPR) fantasy draft.

I am not in real disagreement with 4 of the top 12...Remember I said 8-10 RBs (leaving 2-4 non), but my guess is that with rare exception none of those non-RB will occur in the top six picks. I remember a turd like mo clarett was sneaking into the late first round of FF drafts. I am not implying that you, specifically will be the one to take the marginal RB over a solid WR in a good situation, but it will happen repeatedly this FF season. It always does with RBs.this draft already has the hype (correct or not) by a good percentage of the fantasy world as being a great RB draft, I think there will be a run of backs that come off somewhere between the mid 2nd round to early forth and this is going to yield plenty of false hopes in the dyanasty world. Recall, that Alex Smith was number 1 overall and I know that year he was maybe the 9-10th player off the boards. and at WR while Malcolm Kelly or Jackson maybe the 1st selections of the NFL draft, how much more of a chance do these guys have of being a true FF number 1 than does Sweed, Ducett or Andre Caldwell?

Personally, Jackson probably wouldn't be my #1 choice at WR, but Kelly might be. And while there isn't much of a dropoff in terms of fantasy potential between he and the next WR that will come off the board, he'll have more of an appeal than, say, a Kevin Smith drafted by a team like the 49ers where he will be a backup. I don't see more than 4-6 Rookie RBs getting a fair shot to start heading into '08. Ryan and/or Brohm may be opening day starters... and there will be at least a few top WRs taken that will be favorites for #2 WR status on teams like Buffalo, Minnesota, etc.I predicted a fantasy draft ADP a few weeks ago HERE

(not much has changed in my mind since then)

 

[coolnerd]

If I have picks 4-6, I hoping that the draft plays out as nomal. that is at least one of the top 3-4 players goes a less than ideal situation, while Tashard choices and Kevin smiths of the world go to teams that "need" a RB. this would either allow me to sell the pick for more than its worth or wait for somebody to select situation over talent.

Edit:

With no true elite WR or QB, i can see 8 to 10 RBs off the board in many leagues before anyone messes with Kelly, Jackson or ryan.

Situation will dictate where in a fantasy draft these second-tier RBs get picked. And in most situations, they will be draft as backups or, at best, change of pace guys. The RBs being drafted in the 2nd-3rd Round to less-than-ideal situations won't get drafted over guys like Ryan, Kelly, or Jackson who could be picked in the top half of Rd.1 in the NFL draft.ETA: I would predict four non-RBs to go in the top 12 of a normal (non-PPR) fantasy draft.

I am not in real disagreement with 4 of the top 12...Remember I said 8-10 RBs (leaving 2-4 non), but my guess is that with rare exception none of those non-RB will occur in the top six picks. I remember a turd like mo clarett was sneaking into the late first round of FF drafts. I am not implying that you, specifically will be the one to take the marginal RB over a solid WR in a good situation, but it will happen repeatedly this FF season. It always does with RBs.this draft already has the hype (correct or not) by a good percentage of the fantasy world as being a great RB draft, I think there will be a run of backs that come off somewhere between the mid 2nd round to early forth and this is going to yield plenty of false hopes in the dyanasty world. Recall, that Alex Smith was number 1 overall and I know that year he was maybe the 9-10th player off the boards. and at WR while Malcolm Kelly or Jackson maybe the 1st selections of the NFL draft, how much more of a chance do these guys have of being a true FF number 1 than does Sweed, Ducett or Andre Caldwell?

Personally, Jackson probably wouldn't be my #1 choice at WR, but Kelly might be. And while there isn't much of a dropoff in terms of fantasy potential between he and the next WR that will come off the board, he'll have more of an appeal than, say, a Kevin Smith drafted by a team like the 49ers where he will be a backup. I don't see more than 4-6 Rookie RBs getting a fair shot to start heading into '08. Ryan and/or Brohm may be opening day starters... and there will be at least a few top WRs taken that will be favorites for #2 WR status on teams like Buffalo, Minnesota, etc.I predicted a fantasy draft ADP a few weeks ago HERE

(not much has changed in my mind since then)

I will argue that your projection is closer to what SHOULD happen versus what will occur, especially in non-PPR leagues. I mean JJ Arrington a couple years back flew up boards to be a4th or 5th overall guy based solely on being a need pick, I see a Ray Rice, or Kevin Smith, or Charles Johnson doing the same thing.