2009 Redraft Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Link to latest 2009 redraft rankings (LB)

The link above is set to 28 days. At times in future months, you may need to go directly to the forecast page to get the rankings if they grow older than a month.

I did a reasonably detailed set of projections as a jumping off point but the rankings are still a work in progress. Focusing on the linebackers for now, but I'll have a set of DB and DL rankings up sometime before the draft.

For those new to my general philosophy, I'm a tier guy who favors tackles over big plays, every down roles and upside within tiers. You guys are always a huge help in fine tuning the first pass rankings, so all challenges and questions are welcome.

Have at 'em.

 

[tec79]

where does HBBlades fit into the Was scheme of things? and on this redraft list or on a Dynasty list?

 

[Jene Bramel]

where does HBBlades fit into the Was scheme of things? and on this redraft list or on a Dynasty list?

They are redraft rankings.Not sure what to do with Blades yet. McIntosh isn't entrenched at WLB for the long term, but I think he's still the favorite for an every-down WLB role. Blades seems likely to end up replacing Marcus Washington, but the Redskins may be interested in bringing Washington back and Blades would have a lot of competition for tackles whether he earns snaps in subpackages or not. If the Skins don't bring in another option and McIntosh falters, Blades would have LB3ish upside. Right now, I think he's going to hold "plug me in when someone gets dinged" value again this year.

 

[kethnaab]

A few names and positionings that kinda jumped at me

1) DJ Williams, OLB - considering all the turmoil that is surrounding Denver, can you elaborate a bit as to why you have him that high as an OLB?

2) Stephen Cooper - I like him a ton, just happy that I'm not alone.

3) Kirk Morrison - do you see him getting less tackle opportunities? You have him ranked below Lofa Tatupu. Lofa's broken 90 solos once. Kirk's done it every season since 2005. Just curious about that. Even if they are on the same "tier", I'd be surprised.

 

[Jene Bramel]

A few names and positionings that kinda jumped at me1) DJ Williams, OLB - considering all the turmoil that is surrounding Denver, can you elaborate a bit as to why you have him that high as an OLB? 2) Stephen Cooper - I like him a ton, just happy that I'm not alone. 3) Kirk Morrison - do you see him getting less tackle opportunities? You have him ranked below Lofa Tatupu. Lofa's broken 90 solos once. Kirk's done it every season since 2005. Just curious about that. Even if they are on the same "tier", I'd be surprised.

I believe DJ Williams will play WILB in the base 3-4 and remain on the field in all the nickel packages. That's been a very productive tackle spot and a good role within the scheme over time. The turmoil and transition in that defense should only help Williams' tackle opportunity. I don't see him playing outside at all.I'm worried that Morrison might fall prey to the same things that cost Lofa Tatupu in Seattle under John Marshall. Still, it's hard to drop his tackle projection much given the lack of a decent surrounding cast and a questionable ball control offense. I could see him ranked somewhere in the low top ten through the mid teens depending on what we hear out of Oakland this spring. And I think Jim Mora's more aggressive defense could push Tatupu back up into the 92+ solo tackle range. With his big play and coverage ability, I think he's got a shot at finishing in the top 12 this year.Cooper is quietly a very good all-around talent. He's in a scheme that allows him to attack the LOS and rush the passer and he's consistently able to find the ball in coverage. I'm not yet convinced that Merriman will be recovered enough to put a dent in the number of snaps that defense sees and not sure the Chargers will find a more consistent WILB to play with him. If they find a decent every-down option to play WILB, however, Cooper will drop at least a full tier in tackle heavy systems, with that WILB possibly ranking above Cooper.

 

[kethnaab]

considering making a move involving Cooper, also got an offer for a 2010 2nd rounder, Keith Bullock, and an 8, 9, and 10th for Morrison

Bullock's too damn old though, doesn't help me get younger, but the 2010 2nd sure does. I might do that one.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Jene - good stuff, thanks for posting. Couple of questions:

1) how do you see Bart Scott being used in NY? Will he play the Ray Lewis role? What does that imply for David Harris?

2) Why do you have Poz so low?

3) What's your view on Channing Crowder?

4) Chad Greenway was pretty good last year. Why do you have him ranked down where he is?

 

[Jene Bramel]

1) how do you see Bart Scott being used in NY? Will he play the Ray Lewis role? What does that imply for David Harris?

I'm hedging for now. David Harris isn't Ray Lewis by any stretch, but he may still be a better thumper than Bart Scott and certainly not Scott's equal in coverage. I hear the talk from Scott that he'll be the focal point of the defense, but I'm not convinced that Rex Ryan won't use him in coverage as often as he did in Baltimore. I've got both projected in the 82-88 solo tackle range for now. Scott's a reasonable gamble, though, since there's a chance that he'll be an every-down in-the-box RILB.

2) Why do you have Poz so low?

He could reasonably be ranked in the late teens, but I've got him lower in the LB2 tier because of a relative lack of upside and some concern that he could be moved outside if the Bills bring in a better MLB. I liked Posluszny's scouting reports, but he's had enough tackle opportunity and poor enough competition that his numbers should have been better. And the relative lack of big plays hurts him if he's not a lock to top 92 solos. He'll move up a bit if the Bills don't improve at linebacker, but I'll have a hard time putting him in the top 15 this year.

3) What's your view on Channing Crowder?

I was a huge Crowder supporter very early last spring, thinking that high tackle opportunity and no competition for tackles made him a very good bet for 95 solos. The tackle opportunity never materialized and Yeremiah Bell racked up tackles behind him. I still like Crowder, but the injury history, lack of what could have been some extra contract year motivation, addition of Gibril Wilson and potential that the team could add a much better RILB soon are tempering my enthusiasm this year. I think the mid-LB2 tier is a reasonable expectation.

4) Chad Greenway was pretty good last year. Why do you have him ranked down where he is?

He's probably too low. I really like EJ Henderson, but may be projecting him for a more successful recovery than is likely. I think a healthy EJ makes the bulk of the tackles and gets the majority of the pass rush opportunities. I'm nervous that Greenway's tackle numbers on the strong side, potential rotation in the subpackages again and slim chance of repeating last season's five sacks could add up to an 80 solo, rare big play season.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Have you cooled on Gary Guyton?How about Stephen Tulloch? I need to decide soon whether to extend their contracts in a 16 team, start 3 LB, 2 points per tackle dynasty league. They have very cheap contracts and have one year remaining.ThanksScott

These are redraft rankings, so they don't take into account long term upside. I haven't so much cooled on either as adjusted their 2009 projections according to their current expectations.Guyton may still have LB3 value as an every-down ILB, but that's still a questionable proposition for 2009. I think Bill Belichick will still use Tedy Bruschi on early downs if able for now. Tulloch is still stuck behind the veteran OLB for an every down role right now. Neither are locks for 65 solos at this point, which keeps them out of the top 60. It won't at all be surprising to see Tulloch's career follow the path of Barrett Ruud. When he finally breaks into the lineup for good, he's got a very good chance at LB2 production or better.Long term, though, both are solid bets in a league with 48 starters.