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2010 SUICIDE/SURVIVOR POOL DISCUSSION (1 Viewer)

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Insoxicated
NOTE: For ease of use, I will keep the end of this first post up to date with links to where we start posting picks for each week.

Figured we should get one thread and go from here. I think now is a good time to start looking forward a few weeks and plotting your path toward winning this thing.

Original Text put in spoiler tags because it's out of date and I wanted to bring the links up to the top.

NE -14 (vs Bills)

MIN -11 (vs Lions)

BAL -10.5 (vs Cle)

Indy and SD both are 5.5pt favorites but both are on the road...

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INEPT TEAM BREAKDOWN

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THere is certainly something to be said for looking at the "inept" teams schedules and finding when the best times to go after them, too. Granted, every dog has it's day but it helps to plot ahead a bit and look for games where these guys are on the road against marginal to solid teams that you might not typically play (thereby saving a "good" team.

BILLS

BROWNS

PANTHERS

49ers

RAMS

and

LIONS (slightly lesser degree)

Those teams are weak teams that are having trouble putting points on the board while also getting scored on a pretty good bit.

So much can change (injuries/growth) so it's dangerous to look TOO far ahead, but here is a breakdown through the next 5 weeks of any weaknesses involving these teams:

(Games in Bold Indicate a good path)

WEEK 3: BUF @ NE / CLE @ BAL / DET @ MIN

WEEK 4: CAR @ NO / SF @ ATL / DET @ GB

WEEK 5: CHI @ CAR / / ------ IMO KC @ IND is the Play here but see week 10 below

WEEK 6: SD @ STL / CLE @ PIT / DEF @ NYG

WEEK 7: STL @ TB / BUF @ BAL / CLE @ NO

I have used TEN & ATL so far and am considering the following path

BUF @ NE / CAR @ NO / KC @ IND / CLE @ PIT / STL @ TB

Loosely looking a bit farther forward (if things go this far) I like:

WEEK 8: JAX @ DAL or DEN @ SF

WEEK 9: ARI @ MIN

WEEK 10: CIN @ IND <<< DANGEROUS WEEK (see week 5)

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();Let's get some discussion going on this and plot our path for this season...

WEEK 3 PICKS START HERE >

WEEK 4 PICKS START HERE >

WEEK 5 PICKS START HERE >

WEEK 6 PICKS START HERE >

WEEK 7 PICKS START HERE >

WEEK 8 PICKS START HERE >

WEEK 9 PICKS START HERE >

 
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Went with New England.

NE and Bal are both strong picks, but NE doesn't have any more complete gimme's (I try to stay away from road teams), and Baltimore has a home game against Buffalo in Week 7, which is a stronger pick than St. Louis @ Tampa Bay that week IMO.

 
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I don't normally pick division games but the best non-division games have a road favorite and BUF is so bad that I can't see them putting up even a cursory fight against NE.

Also, I think MIN-DET is a trap game.

 
[icon] said:
eoMMan said:
New England
Click to expand...
:boxing:Tis a theoretical cakewalk this week. Other Strong NE Weeks: NE @ CLE (9) / NE @ DET (12) / NE @ BUF (16)
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True, but all of those other easier NE games are away. I'll take NE at home at the point in the season. We can get a better idea of what teams are good and what teams suck later one. I like taking teams that I know are good now.
 
Two resources I use...

Survivorgrid.com

Surviving on Sunday Blog

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Week 3

Here are the games I am focusing on this week:

NE

The Patriots are being taken by a whopping 53% in OFP. Their future schedule is decent enough with them favored by a TD or more 3 more times, and 2 more after week 10 when double picks start. Even though this is by far their biggest line, and the biggest line of the week I am passing.

BAL

Similar to NE, but with less people taking them this week and more future value. A wash for the 2 teams. Additionally, division games in this -10.5 range have a tough time covering, so if you pick this game there is a chance you'll be sweating in the 4th quarter.

MIN

Their future value took a huge hit over the last 2 weeks with Vegas slashing a lot of their lines. They only have 3 games where they are favored over a TD. One is home for BUF in week 13 which is tempting to save. There are 3 other lines of -10 or greater that week so I don't think its a huge deal.

As far as the actual game goes, they know they have to win. 0-2 and a pre-bye week. They are in the same boat as BAL with the line being -11, but this being a pre-bye week, the numbers are very much in favor of MIN to win. They are my pick this week.

IND/PIT

My numbers have IND right behind MIN for the top spot this week, and PIT 5th, but they both have too much future value.

NYG/CIN/HOU/ARI

All in the same boat from my numbers. 3 of the 4 should win, but unless you really want to risk it with ARI, I wouldn't tough these games.

WAS

Being taken by 3% but have only a 62% chance of winning according to my numbers. Stay away.

OFP

1 Patriots 53.0%

2 Ravens 27.1%

3 Vikings 10.9%

4 Redskins 3.0%

5 Cardinals 1.4%

6 Bengals 1.2%

7 Colts 0.6%

8 Chargers 0.6%

9 Saints 0.3%

10 49ers 0.3%

11 Eagles 0.2%

12 Steelers 0.2%

13 Giants 0.2%

14 Packers 0.2%

15 Texans 0.1%

16 Chiefs 0.1%

17 Dolphins 0.1%
Click to expand...
 
Angry Beavers said:
Personally I like Balt this week so I can use NE in week 9 at CLE. :lmao:
Click to expand...
I'm leary of Baltimore because their offense isn't really clicking just yet. They should have no problem with Cleveland but I'd rather wait to use them when they look better on both sides of the ball.
 
eoMMan said:
Angry Beavers said:
Personally I like Balt this week so I can use NE in week 9 at CLE. :P
Click to expand...
I'm leary of Baltimore because their offense isn't really clicking just yet. They should have no problem with Cleveland but I'd rather wait to use them when they look better on both sides of the ball.
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MIN seems to be the popular pick on those Survivor blogs but I'm leery of Detroit who's come really close to 2 upsets even without Stafford as well as the possibility of Favre and ADP turning the ball over.I don't like picking the favorite and most popular pick but I'm thinking NE this week.
 
eoMMan said:
[icon] said:
eoMMan said:
New England
Click to expand...
:lmao:Tis a theoretical cakewalk this week. Other Strong NE Weeks: NE @ CLE (9) / NE @ DET (12) / NE @ BUF (16)
Click to expand...
True, but all of those other easier NE games are away. I'll take NE at home at the point in the season. We can get a better idea of what teams are good and what teams suck later one. I like taking teams that I know are good now.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
Im going NE. I normally like to avoid divisional games if possible, but its either a divisional game or a road team and Buf has been horrid this year. Additionally, I dont see how the blogs claim that NE has alot of future value but MIN doesn't. NE's remaining schedule at home appears brutal, meanwhile MIN gets ARI in week 9 and BUF in week 13 - both after Rice is supposed to return.

 
BUMP for week 4;

I have burned Balt and looking ahead to week 7( saving NO), I think ATL is the play this week. I think the original poster has already burned ATL. Det is banged up and I would think GB should have an easy time of it if you have not used them yet either..

 
Angry Beavers said:
BUMP for week 4;

I have burned Balt and looking ahead to week 7( saving NO), I think ATL is the play this week. I think the original poster has already burned ATL. Det is banged up and I would think GB should have an easy time of it if you have not used them yet either..
Click to expand...
While I usually buy the "west coast team to the east coast" theory, I'm concerned that, with SF having been flat, firing their OC, etc...they come out like a house on fire. Anyone else thinking this way?
 
I took NO in half my pools because Carolina's offense is so inept, and Indy in the other half because Peyton Manning vs. the Jags pass defense is about as big a mismatch as there is.

 
Noone likes the Texans at Oakland, eh?

I know people usually try to go after home teams in this... but coming off a loss to Dallas and then facing the Raiders... the Texans seem like a pretty safe play to me.

 
I have NO penciled in right now, but week 7 scares me if I can't use them at home against Cleveland. I understand you have to get there to have it matter, but I feel like with the Jets and the Chargers (I've already used GB) there are better secondary options this week and almost nothing that makes me feel warm and fuzzy after NO in week 7.

 
Miami, GB, NE.

NO is the no brainer for sure this week but from a strategy standpoint, I'm leaning towards Indy.

NO has some gimmies down the road where Indy maybe not so much. Indy does break some cardinal rules (divisional roadie) but as mentioned, Jax will not be able to stop them. I just can't see that happening. UNLESS weather is a factor. Something to consider.

 
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Crash Davis said:
I have NO penciled in right now, but week 7 scares me if I can't use them at home against Cleveland. I understand you have to get there to have it matter, but I feel like with the Jets and the Chargers (I've already used GB) there are better secondary options this week and almost nothing that makes me feel warm and fuzzy after NO in week 7.
Click to expand...
Have you used Baltimore yet?
 
Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Angry Beavers said:
BUMP for week 4;

I have burned Balt and looking ahead to week 7( saving NO), I think ATL is the play this week. I think the original poster has already burned ATL. Det is banged up and I would think GB should have an easy time of it if you have not used them yet either..
Click to expand...
While I usually buy the "west coast team to the east coast" theory, I'm concerned that, with SF having been flat, firing their OC, etc...they come out like a house on fire. Anyone else thinking this way?
Click to expand...
I did consider that, but they have a new OC and ATL is coming off of an OT win against NO. Anyone have a stat on how dogs returning home after a SU OT win as a dog fair the following week?Tenn might not be a bad play this week either or the NYJ for that matter ( but again there is a road favorite in a divsional game). Both teams are substantial favorites, but at least Tenn is home.

I am not sure I trust SD at all until we get out of the early part of the season.

As bad as Jacksonville has looked I figure they will be at home and if they have any fight in them at all they are not rolling over for Indy. Weather could also play a factor there as well.

 
I saved GB for this week instead of wasting them on Week 2.

As it turns out, my stealthy play of ATL that week isn't exactly turning out as shrewd. They'll be a good play this week as well given San Fran's offensive woes.

I'm rather leery of the Superbowl champs at this point. They needed OT to squeak out a win over a team in disarray that was soundly spanked by both the Chiefs and the Seachickens. The Saints lost last week and have injury concerns at RB, a newly re-signed kicker and the Madden curse looming over Brees with a knee brace.

The shark move might be to play Seattle on the road at the Rams. I believe they've won in St. Louis the past 5-6 years straight. But I'd avoid road teams unless it's absolutely necessary and I can't see what matchup you're saving the Packers for if you haven't pulled the trigger on them yet.

 
Lascelle said:
I saved GB for this week instead of wasting them on Week 2.As it turns out, my stealthy play of ATL that week isn't exactly turning out as shrewd. They'll be a good play this week as well given San Fran's offensive woes.I'm rather leery of the Superbowl champs at this point. They needed OT to squeak out a win over a team in disarray that was soundly spanked by both the Chiefs and the Seachickens. The Saints lost last week and have injury concerns at RB, a newly re-signed kicker and the Madden curse looming over Brees with a knee brace.The shark move might be to play Seattle on the road at the Rams. I believe they've won in St. Louis the past 5-6 years straight. But I'd avoid road teams unless it's absolutely necessary and I can't see what matchup you're saving the Packers for if you haven't pulled the trigger on them yet.
Click to expand...
Seattle, to me, looks like fool's gold. They are a significantly different team on the road then they are at home. This game is a toss up. I definitely wouldn't bet my pool on it .
 
Lascelle said:
I saved GB for this week instead of wasting them on Week 2.As it turns out, my stealthy play of ATL that week isn't exactly turning out as shrewd. They'll be a good play this week as well given San Fran's offensive woes.I'm rather leery of the Superbowl champs at this point. They needed OT to squeak out a win over a team in disarray that was soundly spanked by both the Chiefs and the Seachickens. The Saints lost last week and have injury concerns at RB, a newly re-signed kicker and the Madden curse looming over Brees with a knee brace.The shark move might be to play Seattle on the road at the Rams. I believe they've won in St. Louis the past 5-6 years straight. But I'd avoid road teams unless it's absolutely necessary and I can't see what matchup you're saving the Packers for if you haven't pulled the trigger on them yet.
Click to expand...
Seattle, to me, looks like fool's gold. They are a significantly different team on the road then they are at home. This game is a toss up. I definitely wouldn't bet my pool on it .
 
What do you guys think of Houston @ Oakland? I hate to take a road team, but it is non divisional and Houston should come out on all cylinders coming off a loss to the Cowboys.

 
harryhood said:
Crash Davis said:
I have NO penciled in right now, but week 7 scares me if I can't use them at home against Cleveland. I understand you have to get there to have it matter, but I feel like with the Jets and the Chargers (I've already used GB) there are better secondary options this week and almost nothing that makes me feel warm and fuzzy after NO in week 7.
Click to expand...
Have you used Baltimore yet?
Click to expand...
I'm rolling with NO at home this week against CAR, and if I make it to week 7, BAL at home vs BUF
 
[icon] said:
So much can change (injuries/growth) so it's dangerous to look TOO far ahead, but here is a breakdown through the next 5 weeks of any weaknesses involving these teams:

(Games in Bold Indicate a good path)

WEEK 3: BUF @ NE / CLE @ BAL / DET @ MIN

WEEK 4: CAR @ NO / SF @ ATL / DET @ GB

WEEK 5: CHI @ CAR / / ------ IMO KC @ IND is the Play here but see week 10 below

WEEK 6: SD @ STL / CLE @ PIT / DEF @ NYG

WEEK 7: STL @ TB / BUF @ BAL / CLE @ NO

I have used TEN & ATL so far and am considering the following path

BUF @ NE / CAR @ NO / KC @ IND / CLE @ PIT / STL @ TB

Loosely looking a bit farther forward (if things go this far) I like:

WEEK 8: JAX @ DAL or DEN @ SF

WEEK 9: ARI @ MIN

WEEK 10: CIN @ IND <<< DANGEROUS WEEK (see week 5)
Click to expand...
ATL / TEN / NE off the board for me. I love NO as evidenced above in Blue, however I'm now seriously considering GB as they don't have many other great games going forward according to survivorgrid.com. Weeks 6/7 look okay for GB, but there are better options.

I'm leaning heavily toward GB this week.

 
[icon] said:
[icon] said:
So much can change (injuries/growth) so it's dangerous to look TOO far ahead, but here is a breakdown through the next 5 weeks of any weaknesses involving these teams:

(Games in Bold Indicate a good path)

WEEK 3: BUF @ NE / CLE @ BAL / DET @ MIN

WEEK 4: CAR @ NO / SF @ ATL / DET @ GB

WEEK 5: CHI @ CAR / / ------ IMO KC @ IND is the Play here but see week 10 below

WEEK 6: SD @ STL / CLE @ PIT / DEF @ NYG

WEEK 7: STL @ TB / BUF @ BAL / CLE @ NO

I have used TEN & ATL so far and am considering the following path

BUF @ NE / CAR @ NO / KC @ IND / CLE @ PIT / STL @ TB

Loosely looking a bit farther forward (if things go this far) I like:

WEEK 8: JAX @ DAL or DEN @ SF

WEEK 9: ARI @ MIN

WEEK 10: CIN @ IND <<< DANGEROUS WEEK (see week 5)
Click to expand...
ATL / TEN / NE off the board for me. I love NO as evidenced above in Blue, however I'm now seriously considering GB as they don't have many other great games going forward according to survivorgrid.com. Weeks 6/7 look okay for GB, but there are better options.

I'm leaning heavily toward GB this week.
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting this link. I remember seeing this last year and now I've put it into favorites. A very useful tool for this. In fact, I've decided to roll with San Diego this week after seeing how much value NO and Indy have left.
 
Mad Mike Martz said:
What do you guys think of Houston @ Oakland? I hate to take a road team, but it is non divisional and Houston should come out on all cylinders coming off a loss to the Cowboys.
Click to expand...
I would avoid it. Houston's pass defense is atrocious. Oakland's pass defense is excellent. So I would not be at all surprised if this is a close game.
 
lefteye said:
Lascelle said:
I saved GB for this week instead of wasting them on Week 2.As it turns out, my stealthy play of ATL that week isn't exactly turning out as shrewd. They'll be a good play this week as well given San Fran's offensive woes.I'm rather leery of the Superbowl champs at this point. They needed OT to squeak out a win over a team in disarray that was soundly spanked by both the Chiefs and the Seachickens. The Saints lost last week and have injury concerns at RB, a newly re-signed kicker and the Madden curse looming over Brees with a knee brace.The shark move might be to play Seattle on the road at the Rams. I believe they've won in St. Louis the past 5-6 years straight. But I'd avoid road teams unless it's absolutely necessary and I can't see what matchup you're saving the Packers for if you haven't pulled the trigger on them yet.
Click to expand...
Seattle, to me, looks like fool's gold. They are a significantly different team on the road then they are at home. This game is a toss up. I definitely wouldn't bet my pool on it .
Click to expand...
No way would I touch this game. Division team on the road...wow. :confused:
 
Going with SD this week. Their run D is pretty stout and Fitz seems to be the only health receiver on the Cards. Plus, SD signed some guys this week just for kick coverage and a few of their vets volunteered to play on ST as well. About the only way I see them losing this game is if the turn it over multiple times.

Meanwhile, NO is a nice play, but they're too valueable later in the season, same with Indy and the Jets. Im avoiding Atl v. SF just because SF is so desperate and Atl is coming off an emotional OT win. And Im a bit worried about Hou matching up with Oak pass D with a hobbled AJ.

 
Futz said:
Thanks for posting this link. I remember seeing this last year and now I've put it into favorites. A very useful tool for this. In fact, I've decided to roll with San Diego this week after seeing how much value NO and Indy have left.
Click to expand...
To be fair, Lehigh posted the link originally in this thread on post 4 or 5 or so.
 
Pip said:
Mad Mike Martz said:
What do you guys think of Houston @ Oakland? I hate to take a road team, but it is non divisional and Houston should come out on all cylinders coming off a loss to the Cowboys.
Click to expand...
I would avoid it. Houston's pass defense is atrocious. Oakland's pass defense is excellent. So I would not be at all surprised if this is a close game.
Click to expand...
On that same token... Oakland's RUSH defense is atrocious and the Texan's rush defense is excellent... so is their rush offense. It is by no means a "lock" and I agree that it wouldn't be a surprise to see a close game here... I'm confident Houston pulls it off though, they're a better team. They beat Indy FCS!
 
mlball77 said:
I'm leaning toward SD at home against ARI. Seems like a nice place to use SD this year, imo.
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This is where I'm leaning too, but SD has recently been a slow starting team. Choosing a 1-2 team seems like a risk, but I can see SD coming together for this game, at home. I see it as a "get right" game. They should be able to beat a Derek Anderson-led Cardinals team.
 
I'm rethinking my N.O. pick. Missing both starting RBs and Drew Brees has a knee brace on today... Might switch over to the Jets.

 
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