2011 WR1 being drafted outside Top 100? (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

Laurent Robinson won some fantasy owners some cash last season. He kind of came out of nowhere to score WR1 numbers last season. Now he's in Jacksonville where it's good news and bad news. The good news is he's their top wideout (and probably by a pretty good margin as Blackmon gets his feet wet). No Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant to contend with here. The bad news is Blaine Gabbert struggled last season and appears to have the lead for the starting job there). I doubt the quarterback play has anywhere to go but up. And I think Robinson has the skill to put up some numbers.

Current ADP has him near WR 46. That seems like a very steep fall. He's behind guys like Randy Moss, Sidney Rice, and even Justin Blackmon. I put the chances at about 20% that Blackmon outperforms Robinson this season (barring injury off course). Even if Blackmon does emerge, that would probably help Robinson and the team get more opportunities anyway. Rising tide raises all ship here, because they are at rock bottom.

And let's not forget that we have a new coaching staff in Jacksonville so you might not see MJD get 4 gazillion carries. They might try to evolve into a more balanced attack. Could Robinson be a poor man's Roddy White here? I can see 70 catches pretty reasonably.

 

[Shutout]

Hrmmmm.

Interesting one. We have seen this cat be a guy people were excited about. We have seen him be a guy that got released by 2 teams was it?

we have seen him do nothing and we ahve seen him, like you said, help people win leagues last year.

He is probably going to be MUCH BETTER than I am going to give him credit for here and I will just be wrong, maybe, for saying this but my I'm going to say he's justified to be higher than top 100 but nowhere near being impactful for FF this year.

I can go along with the idea that the QB will play better in JAX. Heck, Even Garcon did well with me and my sister playing QB for Indy last year. But the big difference here is JAX doesn't have the talent to make Robinson the 3rd or 4th priority where he can just matchup against weaker secondary and single teams a good portion of the time. He SHOULD be a focus of the defense for JAX opponents, where in Dallas, I'm sure people had Miles, Witten, Dez, Demarco, and Felix on their mind before Robinson. Of course, that's a various degree of truth because of all the missed games by most of those guys last year, but is a general statement.

FWIW, I think most people expect a huge falloff just based on knowing how valuable he was last year and seeing this year where people have said they can't trade him.

 

[chickensoup]

I personally don't see it. I think the guy thats drafted late that has a better opportunity to become an every week starter outside the top 36 or so is Rice. With him it's not really a matter of talent, more of a matter of health. If you are taking him as your WR4 there is almost nothing but upside to him.

My problem with Robinson is the significant downgrade in QB and WRs surrounding him. I firmly believe Gabbert will be a backup next year (to Barkley perhaps?) because he is just straight up scared in the pocket.

 

[Sabertooth]

Hrmmmm.Interesting one. We have seen this cat be a guy people were excited about. We have seen him be a guy that got released by 2 teams was it?we have seen him do nothing and we ahve seen him, like you said, help people win leagues last year.He is probably going to be MUCH BETTER than I am going to give him credit for here and I will just be wrong, maybe, for saying this but my I'm going to say he's justified to be higher than top 100 but nowhere near being impactful for FF this year.I can go along with the idea that the QB will play better in JAX. Heck, Even Garcon did well with me and my sister playing QB for Indy last year. But the big difference here is JAX doesn't have the talent to make Robinson the 3rd or 4th priority where he can just matchup against weaker secondary and single teams a good portion of the time. He SHOULD be a focus of the defense for JAX opponents, where in Dallas, I'm sure people had Miles, Witten, Dez, Demarco, and Felix on their mind before Robinson. Of course, that's a various degree of truth because of all the missed games by most of those guys last year, but is a general statement. FWIW, I think most people expect a huge falloff just based on knowing how valuable he was last year and seeing this year where people have said they can't trade him.

Indy is a great example. But instead of comparing him to Garcon, I think Wayne is the better comparison. I think it's a pretty safe bet that Robinson is the top target in Jacksonville in 2012. I could see 75 for 900 and 4 being realistic for Robinson. That is what Wayne did last season with Painter and company. I don't think Robinson is as good as Wayne was last year but, that doesn't always matter for stat compilation. Lots of variables enter the picture. New coach, way better rushing game in Jax, better defense, etc. I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I just dont see enough production for him to crack the lineup.

 

[Sabertooth]

I just dont see enough production for him to crack the lineup.

Depending on league size, I can see WR3 production

 

[zamboni]

I think Blackmon will emerge later on in the year, pushing Robinson down the pecking order.

And even if Blackmon does have a sluggish rookie year, I don't see Robinson as being good enough to be the focal point of the passing game. As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

 

[Hartliner]

I might be more inclined to vouch for him above the others around his ADP, since I see his floor as higher. But yea, I might have fun and see how low I could get him. As far as worrying about the outside variables that don't deal with Robinson directly. The jaguars recently got a new OC that specializes in bolstering QB play so in a perfect world he should be a great QB now! ehhh..., I suspect it is to become a more balanced attack and if that fails garbage time fantasy points are where its at for Robinson then.

Bleacher report gives him 830-6 for what that's worth.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think Blackmon will emerge later on in the year, pushing Robinson down the pecking order.And even if Blackmon does have a sluggish rookie year, I don't see Robinson as being good enough to be the focal point of the passing game. As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Defenses will focus on Maurice Jones-Drew. Blackmon isn't going to pass Robinson this season. He may have games where he outperforms him but I don't foresee an AJ Green/Julio Jones type of talent or opportunity. I just think Robinson's experience will keep him afloat for at least a year.

 

[zamboni]

I think Blackmon will emerge later on in the year, pushing Robinson down the pecking order.

And even if Blackmon does have a sluggish rookie year, I don't see Robinson as being good enough to be the focal point of the passing game. As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Defenses will focus on Maurice Jones-Drew. Blackmon isn't going to pass Robinson this season. He may have games where he outperforms him but I don't foresee an AJ Green/Julio Jones type of talent or opportunity. I just think Robinson's experience will keep him afloat for at least a year.

You seem pretty confident on this - no way to tell. You could be right, but the team drafted Blackmon VERY highly to be their go-to receiver. Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure if Blackmon's got the Green/Julio goods. Sure, the odds are against it, but he still could be good enough right out of the gate and get enough looks to make Robinson just another receiver.

 

[pghrob]

If Gabbert improves a bit from last year, shouldn't we also expect better #'s from Marcedes Lewis too?

 

[PhantomJB]

Could Robinson be a poor man's Roddy White here? I can see 70 catches pretty reasonably.

Sorry, but just not seeing this at all.Robinson was only a "WR1" for a 7-8 week period due to Miles injury and lots of TD's. Many of the TD's came on broken plays with Romo scrambling or due to Dez and Miles drawing focus from the defenses.According to Rotoworld, Robinson is being pegged as the X receiver (vertical) in Mularkey's offense. Same as Julio Jones last year who with all his talent plus Matt Ryan only got 54 catches. Blackmon will fill the Roddy role and therefore probably get more looks.The last time JAX had a WR with 70 catches (exactly) was 2005 with Jimmy Smith.JAX still has their leading receiver from 2010 (Mike Thomas = 66 catches) and added Lee Evans. Not all-world talents but neither is Robinson.Maybe if Chad Henne takes the reins Robinson might be draftable. But at that ADP chances are good a) he will still be on the waiver wire after the first week or so or b) there are guys equal or greater upside even cheaper (A. Collie, N. Washington, Vincent Brown, Doug Baldwin, etc.)

 

[gandalas]

I have taken Robinson in pretty much every draft I have been involved in this offseason. Just ridiculous value for where he is being taken.

16.05, or 185 overall in my dynasty startup as my WR4. (WR51!!) This dude is 27 and the #1 target on his team now. Even if he crashes and burns, he didn't really cost me too much at all.

 

[renesauz]

Robinson's floor is high, but his ceiling is very low. In the end, I think his ADP rank is about right. If you took big gambles at WR1 and 2, maybe he's a guy you target for security. If you have solid safe options at WR 1/2, I think you look for more upside at this ADP.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

if you've got the roster space, I like him just because he's practically undrafted, but the situation really worries me.

his value last year was puffed up by the td -- he caught 7 of them from inside the 10, getting a good chunk of romo's 30.

last year, gabbert threw only 9 all year to players other than mjd.

gabbert maybe completes 10 balls per game to a wr, so robinson would basically have to catch half of those for 80 catches on the year to help support the lagging td production -- and that'd probably be, like, 150 targets.

that's about what he caught in the games he subbed for austin with romo throwing the ball, and romo completed about 60% more passes than gabbert last year.

he's so cheap, though, it really comes down to a question of roster space, I suppose.

 

[Sabertooth]

If Gabbert improves a bit from last year, shouldn't we also expect better #'s from Marcedes Lewis too?

Maybe, but this thread is about Robinson.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think Blackmon will emerge later on in the year, pushing Robinson down the pecking order.

And even if Blackmon does have a sluggish rookie year, I don't see Robinson as being good enough to be the focal point of the passing game. As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Defenses will focus on Maurice Jones-Drew. Blackmon isn't going to pass Robinson this season. He may have games where he outperforms him but I don't foresee an AJ Green/Julio Jones type of talent or opportunity. I just think Robinson's experience will keep him afloat for at least a year.

You seem pretty confident on this - no way to tell. You could be right, but the team drafted Blackmon VERY highly to be their go-to receiver. Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure if Blackmon's got the Green/Julio goods. Sure, the odds are against it, but he still could be good enough right out of the gate and get enough looks to make Robinson just another receiver.

They paid Robinson 5 year, 32 Million, 14 guaranteed. That's nothing to sneeze at either.

 

[Sabertooth]

Could Robinson be a poor man's Roddy White here? I can see 70 catches pretty reasonably.

Sorry, but just not seeing this at all.Robinson was only a "WR1" for a 7-8 week period due to Miles injury and lots of TD's. Many of the TD's came on broken plays with Romo scrambling or due to Dez and Miles drawing focus from the defenses.

According to Rotoworld, Robinson is being pegged as the X receiver (vertical) in Mularkey's offense. Same as Julio Jones last year who with all his talent plus Matt Ryan only got 54 catches. Blackmon will fill the Roddy role and therefore probably get more looks.

The last time JAX had a WR with 70 catches (exactly) was 2005 with Jimmy Smith.

JAX still has their leading receiver from 2010 (Mike Thomas = 66 catches) and added Lee Evans. Not all-world talents but neither is Robinson.

Maybe if Chad Henne takes the reins Robinson might be draftable. But at that ADP chances are good a) he will still be on the waiver wire after the first week or so or b) there are guys equal or greater upside even cheaper (A. Collie, N. Washington, Vincent Brown, Doug Baldwin, etc.)

New coach and owner pretty much negates any meaning in that stat.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

the more I think about it, the less I like him.

how different is his current situation from 2010 in stl, other than in 2010 he had the 1st overall pick and offensive rookie of the year throwing to him?

 

[Sabertooth]

the more I think about it, the less I like him.how different is his current situation from 2010 in stl, other than in 2010 he had the 1st overall pick and offensive rookie of the year throwing to him?

I don't think he was healthy for most of that season.

 

[az_prof]

Laurent Robinson won some fantasy owners some cash last season. He kind of came out of nowhere to score WR1 numbers last season. Now he's in Jacksonville where it's good news and bad news. The good news is he's their top wideout (and probably by a pretty good margin as Blackmon gets his feet wet). No Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant to contend with here. The bad news is Blaine Gabbert struggled last season and appears to have the lead for the starting job there). I doubt the quarterback play has anywhere to go but up. And I think Robinson has the skill to put up some numbers. Current ADP has him near WR 46. That seems like a very steep fall. He's behind guys like Randy Moss, Sidney Rice, and even Justin Blackmon. I put the chances at about 20$ that Blackmon outperforms Robinson this season (barring injury off course). Even if Blackmon does emerge, that would probably help Robinson and the team get more opportunities anyway. Rising tide raises all ship here, because they are at rock bottom. And let's not forget that we have a new coaching staff in Jacksonville so you might not see MJD get 4 gazillion carries. They might try to evolve into a more balanced attack. Could Robinson be a poor man's Roddy White here? I can see 70 catches pretty reasonably.

I think you make a good argument that he is under valued. A starting WR who is the featured WR, even on a bad team, has to be at least a WR3. That would put him at WR36 as the floor. Now, you suggest he could be as good as Roddy White. That I find a stretch. For that to happen, Gabbert would have to become Matt Ryan. And your suggestion that there is no where to go but up for Gabbert is wrong: he could stay right where he is. Lots of bad, young QBs stay bad. I would say that upside ceiling is closer to mid range WR2--say Stevie Johnson or Nate Washington. Johnson was the primary target on a bad team, with an average QB. So, if Gabbert can improve markedly as Fitzpatrick did, then Robinson could catch 70/1000/6. That puts him around Wr16-WR18. Still a bargain, no doubt, but the Roddy White comparison is over the top. No way Robinson is a top 10 WR in Jacksonville no less.

 

[Sabertooth]

Laurent Robinson won some fantasy owners some cash last season. He kind of came out of nowhere to score WR1 numbers last season. Now he's in Jacksonville where it's good news and bad news. The good news is he's their top wideout (and probably by a pretty good margin as Blackmon gets his feet wet). No Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant to contend with here. The bad news is Blaine Gabbert struggled last season and appears to have the lead for the starting job there). I doubt the quarterback play has anywhere to go but up. And I think Robinson has the skill to put up some numbers.

Current ADP has him near WR 46. That seems like a very steep fall. He's behind guys like Randy Moss, Sidney Rice, and even Justin Blackmon. I put the chances at about 20$ that Blackmon outperforms Robinson this season (barring injury off course). Even if Blackmon does emerge, that would probably help Robinson and the team get more opportunities anyway. Rising tide raises all ship here, because they are at rock bottom.

And let's not forget that we have a new coaching staff in Jacksonville so you might not see MJD get 4 gazillion carries. They might try to evolve into a more balanced attack. Could Robinson be a poor man's Roddy White here? I can see 70 catches pretty reasonably.

I think you make a good argument that he is under valued. A starting WR who is the featured WR, even on a bad team, has to be at least a WR3. That would put him at WR36 as the floor. Now, you suggest he could be as good as Roddy White. That I find a stretch. For that to happen, Gabbert would have to become Matt Ryan. And your suggestion that there is no where to go but up for Gabbert is wrong: he could stay right where he is. Lots of bad, young QBs stay bad.

I would say that upside ceiling is closer to mid range WR2--say Stevie Johnson or Nate Washington. Johnson was the primary target on a bad team, with an average QB. So, if Gabbert can improve markedly as Fitzpatrick did, then Robinson could catch 70/1000/6. That puts him around Wr16-WR18. Still a bargain, no doubt, but the Roddy White comparison is over the top. No way Robinson is a top 10 WR in Jacksonville no less.

No, I suggest he could fill that role, not be "as good." Hence the "poor man's" Roddy White comment. I thought was pretty clear. I think he can be around WR 25-35 at WR45 price. That's all.As for Gabbert, I never said HE WILL GET BETTER. I said the QB play will improve. If Gabbert stinks it up (this coach and owner have no allegiance to him) he'll be replaced in the lineup.

 

[zamboni]

I think Blackmon will emerge later on in the year, pushing Robinson down the pecking order.

And even if Blackmon does have a sluggish rookie year, I don't see Robinson as being good enough to be the focal point of the passing game. As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Defenses will focus on Maurice Jones-Drew. Blackmon isn't going to pass Robinson this season. He may have games where he outperforms him but I don't foresee an AJ Green/Julio Jones type of talent or opportunity. I just think Robinson's experience will keep him afloat for at least a year.

You seem pretty confident on this - no way to tell. You could be right, but the team drafted Blackmon VERY highly to be their go-to receiver. Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure if Blackmon's got the Green/Julio goods. Sure, the odds are against it, but he still could be good enough right out of the gate and get enough looks to make Robinson just another receiver.

They paid Robinson 5 year, 32 Million, 14 guaranteed. That's nothing to sneeze at either.

Yes, they did. Peerless Price once got a lot of money from Atlanta, too.Seriously though, Robinson got more than he should have, but he timed a good season at the right time with a demand for receiving talent by many teams.

Dollars doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be the guy though, especially with a hot shot rookie drafted in the top 5 likely being asked to be an important cog, and in what will likely be a less prolific offense.

Not saying Robinson won't have some value - I could see a 60-700-5 type season out of him. But you could get lots of receivers that put up similar numbers IMO.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think Blackmon will emerge later on in the year, pushing Robinson down the pecking order.

And even if Blackmon does have a sluggish rookie year, I don't see Robinson as being good enough to be the focal point of the passing game. As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

Defenses will focus on Maurice Jones-Drew. Blackmon isn't going to pass Robinson this season. He may have games where he outperforms him but I don't foresee an AJ Green/Julio Jones type of talent or opportunity. I just think Robinson's experience will keep him afloat for at least a year.

You seem pretty confident on this - no way to tell. You could be right, but the team drafted Blackmon VERY highly to be their go-to receiver. Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure if Blackmon's got the Green/Julio goods. Sure, the odds are against it, but he still could be good enough right out of the gate and get enough looks to make Robinson just another receiver.

They paid Robinson 5 year, 32 Million, 14 guaranteed. That's nothing to sneeze at either.

Yes, they did. Peerless Price once got a lot of money from Atlanta, too.Seriously though, Robinson got more than he should have, but he timed a good season at the right time with a demand for receiving talent by many teams.

Dollars doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be the guy though, especially with a hot shot rookie drafted in the top 5 likely being asked to be an important cog, and in what will likely be a less prolific offense.

Not saying Robinson won't have some value - I could see a 60-700-5 type season out of him. But you could get lots of receivers that put up similar numbers IMO.

Neither does draft slot. Blackmon could be another BMW or Charles Rogers instead of the next Boldin. He's already got the booze issues so he's flirting with Goodell already.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

Last year, in a passing crazed season, there were 19 WR with 70 catches. 3 teams had 2 players, meaning that half of NFL franchises DID NOT have a WR with 70 receptions. I'm not so sure JAX is a great option to join that list.As for a 75-900-4 season, last year that would have ranked as WR33. Sure, that's better than WR45, but that's really not a game changer in terms of fantasy value. Last year, the difference between WR33 and WR45 was 13 fantasy points. That's one broken tackle for a long TD.COULD Robinson really have a Top 15 season or repeat what he did with the Cowboys? Maybe, but I wouldn't bank on it.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He's going about where he should all things considered. I agree that he'll lead JAX in targets, say 100 (more than their leader last year). Given Gabbert, and the fact that he'll now be seeing opposing teams' top cover guy, 50% catch rate for about 50 catches seems reasonable, if not generous. Robinson's career YPC average is 13, and I'll generously project him to maintain that despite now being in the worst passing offense that he's seen in his career. So 50 - 650. TDs? No one in Jacksonville caught more than 3 last year, and MJD and Marcedes Lewis should be options 1 & 2 in the redzone. 4 TDs seems reasonable. 50 - 650 - 4 makes him a WR4 or WR5, which is exactly where he's going.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

What about the stretch that was a month long when Austin wasn't in the line up? He produced then. I'm not saying I'm going to get hot and bothered about his potential in 2012, but I think we may be discounting last year a bit too much.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

What about the stretch that was a month long when Austin wasn't in the line up? He produced then. I'm not saying I'm going to get hot and bothered about his potential in 2012, but I think we may be discounting last year a bit too much.

yeah, he caught 28 balls in 6 games, I think, with romo throwing to him.cowboys have a somewhat better offense.

 

[Shutout]

I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

Last year, in a passing crazed season, there were 19 WR with 70 catches. 3 teams had 2 players, meaning that half of NFL franchises DID NOT have a WR with 70 receptions. I'm not so sure JAX is a great option to join that list.As for a 75-900-4 season, last year that would have ranked as WR33. Sure, that's better than WR45, but that's really not a game changer in terms of fantasy value. Last year, the difference between WR33 and WR45 was 13 fantasy points. That's one broken tackle for a long TD.

COULD Robinson really have a Top 15 season or repeat what he did with the Cowboys? Maybe, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Cool perspective. I know we all tend to just manufacture numbers or actually derive them by some formula but your type of statement is very telling: Think about it guys...in a season wehre we saw the ball thrown like never before and with Manning and Shaub as the only two "significant" QBs that missed time, half the league still didn't have a guy meet the suggested mark of 70 catches, etc. So thinking that one of the dirges of the eague will achieve it may suggest we temper the expecations.

 

[MAC_32]

Laurent bounced off and on my teams throughout his 3 team career because of his skills, guy just didn't get play because he couldn't stay healthy. He finally got a healthy stretch and an opportunity in a good situation and parlayed it into a hell of a payday. His problem now - just because a guy is a #1 WR does not mean he's a quality fantasy asset. He's on an offense with (imo) the league's worst QB and instead of being the 3rd or 4th target is the primary guy and will get more attention from defenses. The Jags WR's had less TD's combined than Laurent did himself in a 1/2 season. Laurent absolutely helped his cause some, it wasn't all Romo, but the quality of QB throwing him the ball has been murdered here.

Maybe he will be more productive than last year's #1 WR Mike Thomas, 44/415/1, but how much more? I don't think enough to be more than at best injury/bye week filler. Pass on him in drafts and look for him after he is dropped in October.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

Last year, in a passing crazed season, there were 19 WR with 70 catches. 3 teams had 2 players, meaning that half of NFL franchises DID NOT have a WR with 70 receptions. I'm not so sure JAX is a great option to join that list.As for a 75-900-4 season, last year that would have ranked as WR33. Sure, that's better than WR45, but that's really not a game changer in terms of fantasy value. Last year, the difference between WR33 and WR45 was 13 fantasy points. That's one broken tackle for a long TD.

COULD Robinson really have a Top 15 season or repeat what he did with the Cowboys? Maybe, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Cool perspective. I know we all tend to just manufacture numbers or actually derive them by some formula but your type of statement is very telling: Think about it guys...in a season wehre we saw the ball thrown like never before and with Manning and Shaub as the only two "significant" QBs that missed time, half the league still didn't have a guy meet the suggested mark of 70 catches, etc. So thinking that one of the dirges of the eague will achieve it may suggest we temper the expecations.

The only thing about taking aggregate numbers for a season is people get hurt. When I project for a season, I project for a full season of health for a player. Guys get dinged in games, miss games, play hurt. That drives down year end numbers as a whole. The better query might be, how many teams got total of 70 catches from their top wideout for a season? Meaning you'd count the WR1 for the team each week, even if the actual player wasn't the same. So if Greg Jennings got hurt, you'd count Jordy Nelson as the WR1 the rest of the game (and following week if Jennings missed that game). But I have no idea how to do that.

 

[bonesman]

As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

What about the stretch that was a month long when Austin wasn't in the line up? He produced then. I'm not saying I'm going to get hot and bothered about his potential in 2012, but I think we may be discounting last year a bit too much.

I don't. Too many TD's to replicate. Jacksonville had 12 passing TDs all last year. Laurent had 11.

 

[Sabertooth]

As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

What about the stretch that was a month long when Austin wasn't in the line up? He produced then. I'm not saying I'm going to get hot and bothered about his potential in 2012, but I think we may be discounting last year a bit too much.

I don't. Too many TD's to replicate. Jacksonville had 12 passing TDs all last year. Laurent had 11.

Yep. I only had him down for 4 in the initial post.

 

[zamboni]

As others mentioned, it was a bit easier for him to produce when defenses were mainly focusing on Bryant/Austin/Witten.

What about the stretch that was a month long when Austin wasn't in the line up? He produced then. I'm not saying I'm going to get hot and bothered about his potential in 2012, but I think we may be discounting last year a bit too much.

Fair enough, but weren't Witten and Bryant still in the lineup? Don't know off the top of my head, but guessing they were.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

Last year, in a passing crazed season, there were 19 WR with 70 catches. 3 teams had 2 players, meaning that half of NFL franchises DID NOT have a WR with 70 receptions. I'm not so sure JAX is a great option to join that list.As for a 75-900-4 season, last year that would have ranked as WR33. Sure, that's better than WR45, but that's really not a game changer in terms of fantasy value. Last year, the difference between WR33 and WR45 was 13 fantasy points. That's one broken tackle for a long TD.

COULD Robinson really have a Top 15 season or repeat what he did with the Cowboys? Maybe, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Cool perspective. I know we all tend to just manufacture numbers or actually derive them by some formula but your type of statement is very telling: Think about it guys...in a season wehre we saw the ball thrown like never before and with Manning and Shaub as the only two "significant" QBs that missed time, half the league still didn't have a guy meet the suggested mark of 70 catches, etc. So thinking that one of the dirges of the eague will achieve it may suggest we temper the expecations.

The only thing about taking aggregate numbers for a season is people get hurt. When I project for a season, I project for a full season of health for a player. Guys get dinged in games, miss games, play hurt. That drives down year end numbers as a whole. The better query might be, how many teams got total of 70 catches from their top wideout for a season? Meaning you'd count the WR1 for the team each week, even if the actual player wasn't the same. So if Greg Jennings got hurt, you'd count Jordy Nelson as the WR1 the rest of the game (and following week if Jennings missed that game). But I have no idea how to do that.

I don't really have the time or the desire to figure that out, but here are the numbers for how many receptions each team had by WR over the past 3 seasons. They are arranged by greatest total to lowest total over that time frame and the years are 2011, 2010, followed by 2009.

IND	199	277	212	688ARI	192	208	272	672NYG	213	219	236	668GBP	235	228	193	656NEP	196	177	273	646PIT	225	185	222	632NOS	206	235	181	622CIN	183	238	182	603SEA	184	203	206	593MIA	170	222	195	587DEN	132	230	219	581STL	187	221	170	578ATL	204	203	168	575PHI	203	186	175	564BUF	220	211	132	563HOU	129	199	225	553MIN	169	167	207	543DAL	182	169	170	521DET	222	153	145	520WAS	175	162	174	511CHI	159	156	185	500KCC	184	118	183	485TBB	176	148	141	465SDC	148	151	153	452TEN	191	131	125	447NYJ	146	153	136	435JAX	124	134	176	434CAR	160	129	142	431BAL	115	157	149	421CLE	162	129	124	415SFO	144	121	136	401OAK	176	112	99	387

At the very least, people can see how much or or little things changed from year to year and how frequently each team utlized their receivers.

 

[baconisgood]

I completely understand the apprehension on Robinson, the last guy I can think of to come out of nowhere and put up a year like he did was Antonio Bryant and a knee injury doomed his fantasy owners in subsequent years. He has also been unable to stay healthy.

That said I'm planning on picking him up in probably half of my leagues- anytime I'm looking for a #4 WR who is a risk but has a lot of upside he will be one of a couple of guys I am taking. I think his talent, due to injuries, has been underrated by many detractors and he is reportedly been at Fitz' WR camp so I am not worried about him ballooning up after his first fat contract.

As for QB play this season either Gabbart will be better or Chad Henne will be in. I know, I know- Chad Henne, but Gabbart was a 50% completion 5.4 y/a passer last season and Henne's worst year in MIA was a LOT better than that- and that was with Bess as his #1 WR. As far as total offense they still have a strong running game, Mike Thomas moves back into a more natural position (one where he put up 66/820/4 as a sophmore) and have 3 other contenders in Evans, Lewis and Blackmon to produce and draw some attention.

Upside wise there is 65/1000/9 potential here with a floor of Pulls Hammy, barely sees field (more likely that I care to admit with his history) with basically every thing in between a possibility.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Upside wise there is 65/1000/9 potential here

Wat? The Jags' top 3 WRs combined in 2011: 1074 / 5. Laurent is a decent player, but Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't score 9 times in a Jags uni this year.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Upside wise there is 65/1000/9 potential here

Wat? The Jags' top 3 WRs combined in 2011: 1074 / 5. Laurent is a decent player, but Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't score 9 times in a Jags uni this year.

it's fun to pretend

 

[baconisgood]

Upside wise there is 65/1000/9 potential here

Wat? The Jags' top 3 WRs combined in 2011: 1074 / 5. Laurent is a decent player, but Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't score 9 times in a Jags uni this year.

I'm pretty sure I gave my reasons above but the Jags had the worst QB play in the league last season and could upgrade VERY easily. They have also added 3 WRs who are better than their 2-4 guys last season.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Upside wise there is 65/1000/9 potential here

Wat? The Jags' top 3 WRs combined in 2011: 1074 / 5. Laurent is a decent player, but Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't score 9 times in a Jags uni this year.

I'm pretty sure I gave my reasons above but the Jags had the worst QB play in the league last season and could upgrade VERY easily. They have also added 3 WRs who are better than their 2-4 guys last season.

Whether it's Gabbert or Henne, they still have one of the absolute worst QBs in the NFL. Better is relative. A JUGGS machine would have been a step up from Gabbert last year; that doesn't mean the machine is tossing 9 scores to Laurent Robinson in 2012.Adding more competition for the limited and likely low quality targets in Jacksonville will help the team NFL-wise, but won't do anything good for anyone's fantasy team in terms of one guy seeing the 120+ targets needed for the 65 - 70 catches a few of you guys are talking about.Bad team, run first offense, bottom 5 if not absolute worst QB play, and lots of new receiving options doesn't add up to career high borderline WR1 numbers out of a journeyman WR like Laurent Robinson. He's a guy who needs a great situation (like he fell into last year) to be fantasy relevant. Jacksonville is about as far from a great situation as it gets for a WR.

 

[Sabertooth]

Upside wise there is 65/1000/9 potential here

Wat? The Jags' top 3 WRs combined in 2011: 1074 / 5. Laurent is a decent player, but Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't score 9 times in a Jags uni this year.

I'm pretty sure I gave my reasons above but the Jags had the worst QB play in the league last season and could upgrade VERY easily. They have also added 3 WRs who are better than their 2-4 guys last season.

Whether it's Gabbert or Henne, they still have one of the absolute worst QBs in the NFL. Better is relative. A JUGGS machine would have been a step up from Gabbert last year; that doesn't mean the machine is tossing 9 scores to Laurent Robinson in 2012.Adding more competition for the limited and likely low quality targets in Jacksonville will help the team NFL-wise, but won't do anything good for anyone's fantasy team in terms of one guy seeing the 120+ targets needed for the 65 - 70 catches a few of you guys are talking about.

Bad team, run first offense, bottom 5 if not absolute worst QB play, and lots of new receiving options doesn't add up to career high borderline WR1 numbers out of a journeyman WR like Laurent Robinson. He's a guy who needs a great situation (like he fell into last year) to be fantasy relevant. Jacksonville is about as far from a great situation as it gets for a WR.

We are going to see this season probably. Numbers are numbers but he sure looked the part last season. And if the Cowboys WR3 spot is so "plug and play" who should I be targetting over there? Should I just pencil in Robinson's numbers. Because whoever THAT guy is, he's going undrafted.

 

[cstu]

We are going to see this season probably. Numbers are numbers but he sure looked the part last season. And if the Cowboys WR3 spot is so "plug and play" who should I be targetting over there? Should I just pencil in Robinson's numbers. Because whoever THAT guy is, he's going undrafted.

There's are a few players in the mix, but my money is on Andre Holmes who seems to be Jerry Jones' favorite.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

We are going to see this season probably. Numbers are numbers but he sure looked the part last season. And if the Cowboys WR3 spot is so "plug and play" who should I be targetting over there? Should I just pencil in Robinson's numbers. Because whoever THAT guy is, he's going undrafted.

We'll have to just disagree. You saw him looking the part, I saw a guy who just caught an unsustainably high number of TDs, which IMO is a stat that carries less year to year predictive value than most. That same guy moved from a situation where Dallas throws for > 75% of it's TDs, to a team that runs a ton at the goalline, while scoring about half as many TDs.If any of Austin, Witten, or Dez miss a big chunk of time again, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the WR3 was again a viable fantasy starter, based on the Cowboys QB and system.

 

[Sabertooth]

We are going to see this season probably. Numbers are numbers but he sure looked the part last season. And if the Cowboys WR3 spot is so "plug and play" who should I be targetting over there? Should I just pencil in Robinson's numbers. Because whoever THAT guy is, he's going undrafted.

We'll have to just disagree. You saw him looking the part, I saw a guy who just caught an unsustainably high number of TDs, which IMO is a stat that carries less year to year predictive value than most. That same guy moved from a situation where Dallas throws for > 75% of it's TDs, to a team that runs a ton at the goalline, while scoring about half as many TDs.If any of Austin, Witten, or Dez miss a big chunk of time again, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the WR3 was again a viable fantasy starter, based on the Cowboys QB and system.

That's fine, and I'm giving Robinson a steep discount on the touchdowns too, I only penciled him in for about 4. Basically I looked at his situation as being very similar to what the Colts had last season. And really do think the Jags Quarterbacks are going to struggle. But they have had success with Jones-Drew and will continue to ride him. Gabbert has had an offseason and seems to have organizational support. Mularkey was brought in to "fix" Gabbert and he's had some pretty good success. Let's face it, Jack Del Rio never developed a quarterback in his whole career. Half empty/half full I guess. But with few targets around I think he sees a lot of catches, mediocre yards and scores. 70-900-4 if healthy. He's a great guy to have as a WR4, and will probably be functional as a WR3/ bye week filler for you. No more, no less. And in dynasty, if the Jags really stink, you could see Matt Barkley or Ryan Mallet brought in next season. The new owner wants a better product than the old owner put forth.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

That's fine, and I'm giving Robinson a steep discount on the touchdowns too, I only penciled him in for about 4.

TDs aside, what's the track record of guys with Robinson's spotty history of production joining their 4th team and setting career highs for catches and yards right out of the gate? I haven't researched it, but I seem to recall more than a few journeyman type guys struggling when asked to be the focus of a passing attack and beat top-CBs and double teams for the first time.

Basically I looked at his situation as being very similar to what the Colts had last season.

I agree. But the 2011 Jaguars seem like a better place to start than the 2011 Colts, in terms of predicting WR usage.

And in dynasty, if the Jags really stink, you could see Matt Barkley or Ryan Mallet brought in next season. The new owner wants a better product than the old owner put forth.

By the time the situation might improve, Blackmon will be the WR that benefits. He's twice the player that Laurent Robinson is.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

Last year, in a passing crazed season, there were 19 WR with 70 catches. 3 teams had 2 players, meaning that half of NFL franchises DID NOT have a WR with 70 receptions. I'm not so sure JAX is a great option to join that list.As for a 75-900-4 season, last year that would have ranked as WR33. Sure, that's better than WR45, but that's really not a game changer in terms of fantasy value. Last year, the difference between WR33 and WR45 was 13 fantasy points. That's one broken tackle for a long TD.

COULD Robinson really have a Top 15 season or repeat what he did with the Cowboys? Maybe, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Cool perspective. I know we all tend to just manufacture numbers or actually derive them by some formula but your type of statement is very telling: Think about it guys...in a season wehre we saw the ball thrown like never before and with Manning and Shaub as the only two "significant" QBs that missed time, half the league still didn't have a guy meet the suggested mark of 70 catches, etc. So thinking that one of the dirges of the eague will achieve it may suggest we temper the expecations.

I'm not a believer in Robinson, but that stat can be somewhat deceiving in that injuries to WRs become a factor as well. I'm sure if we looked at all players that lined up as the top WR for their team each week we'd see a lot more teams break the 70 reception barrier. Also if we included TEs (and lets face it, in this day and age a TE is really just a big WR) that number would go up as well.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think 75, 900, 4 is possible and plausible. That's more like WR25 numbers than WR45 numbers.

Last year, in a passing crazed season, there were 19 WR with 70 catches. 3 teams had 2 players, meaning that half of NFL franchises DID NOT have a WR with 70 receptions. I'm not so sure JAX is a great option to join that list.As for a 75-900-4 season, last year that would have ranked as WR33. Sure, that's better than WR45, but that's really not a game changer in terms of fantasy value. Last year, the difference between WR33 and WR45 was 13 fantasy points. That's one broken tackle for a long TD.

COULD Robinson really have a Top 15 season or repeat what he did with the Cowboys? Maybe, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Cool perspective. I know we all tend to just manufacture numbers or actually derive them by some formula but your type of statement is very telling: Think about it guys...in a season wehre we saw the ball thrown like never before and with Manning and Shaub as the only two "significant" QBs that missed time, half the league still didn't have a guy meet the suggested mark of 70 catches, etc. So thinking that one of the dirges of the eague will achieve it may suggest we temper the expecations.

The only thing about taking aggregate numbers for a season is people get hurt. When I project for a season, I project for a full season of health for a player. Guys get dinged in games, miss games, play hurt. That drives down year end numbers as a whole. The better query might be, how many teams got total of 70 catches from their top wideout for a season? Meaning you'd count the WR1 for the team each week, even if the actual player wasn't the same. So if Greg Jennings got hurt, you'd count Jordy Nelson as the WR1 the rest of the game (and following week if Jennings missed that game). But I have no idea how to do that.

I should have read further before posting what I did. Yes, that's why that stat is deceiving.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

As for QB play this season either Gabbart will be better or Chad Henne will be in.

We don't really know that that's true. What if Gabbert continues to struggle (but shows some signs of improvement) and the team sits at 2-6? If they still beleive Gabbert is their future franchise QB, would they really make the swicth to what looks to be a journeyman type QB in order to maybe win a extra game or two down the stretch?

 

[baconisgood]

As for QB play this season either Gabbart will be better or Chad Henne will be in.

We don't really know that that's true. What if Gabbert continues to struggle (but shows some signs of improvement) and the team sits at 2-6? If they still beleive Gabbert is their future franchise QB, would they really make the swicth to what looks to be a journeyman type QB in order to maybe win a extra game or two down the stretch?

Gabbart was historically bad last season. 50% and 5.4 y/a. If hes around those numbers you would have to be blind to stick with him. Even a poor 55% 6.0y/a season would mean 250-300 yards + more TD opportunities, and he should still be benched at that point for a guy like Henne (60%, 6.7 for his career) very quickly. Frankly it shouldn't take 2-6 games. New ownership and new coaches frequently want to distance themselves from previous regimes and a struggling gabbart in the preseason will give them the opportunity to bench/trade him and there will be no outcry.

 

[Sabertooth]

That's fine, and I'm giving Robinson a steep discount on the touchdowns too, I only penciled him in for about 4.

TDs aside, what's the track record of guys with Robinson's spotty history of production joining their 4th team and setting career highs for catches and yards right out of the gate? I haven't researched it, but I seem to recall more than a few journeyman type guys struggling when asked to be the focus of a passing attack and beat top-CBs and double teams for the first time.

Basically I looked at his situation as being very similar to what the Colts had last season.

I agree. But the 2011 Jaguars seem like a better place to start than the 2011 Colts, in terms of predicting WR usage.

And in dynasty, if the Jags really stink, you could see Matt Barkley or Ryan Mallet brought in next season. The new owner wants a better product than the old owner put forth.

By the time the situation might improve, Blackmon will be the WR that benefits. He's twice the player that Laurent Robinson is.

Is Robinson's history spotty or injury-riddled?