Amidst a nightmare of a season that never seemed to feel right from the get go (even dating back to training camp), the Falcons are a team that I would term in significant transition. This is my team, so I feel like I have better insight into the ethos of the franchise than I do the others. At the end of the day, what it really came down to for the Falcons and Falcons fans was this. For as bad as 2013 was, it did not rival how bad losing the NFC Conference Championship Game was at home against the 49ers in 2012. Up 17-0 and 24-14 at home, the fact that the Falcons offense couldn’t score in the second half and the defense almost escorted 49er offensive players down the field…well, even 2013 felt like residue from 2012’s missed opportunity.
The hangover that was the 2013 season is gone now…replaced by a certain amount of doubt as to whether or not the way this team has been constructed provides it a chance to stay relevant in an increasingly competitive NFC. Certainly there are pieces in place that are great building blocks. But there are other gaping holes on this team that still seem to hold it back from achieving true greatness (they haven’t had a headliner defensive player for forever). Were they crippled by injury…? Yes and no. When you build your offense around a prolific passing attack and your two stud WR’s get injured or are never healthy, that’s going to cause issues. But their O-Line was garbage and their LT coming into 2014 is still Sam Baker. Sure they drafted Jake Matthews and signed Jon Asomoah, but this units credibility is shot at the moment. So there is a lot of ground to make up. And for the league worst rushing attack, swapping Devonta Freeman for Jason Snelling was a nice start. But I’m also someone who feels that one of Dimitroff’s great errors during his tenure in Atlanta has been to ignore building depth in their rushing attack. A lot of questions for the Falcons to answer as it relates to 2013 being a fluke.
Matt Ryan – He’s not flashy. He’s almost anti-flashy. While there are some things to not like about Ryan, he really has turned out to be a QB that seemingly doesn’t get his due from a FF perspective. Consider that he’s going QB9 at the moment. This despite the fact that with a diminishing/diminished run game, Ryan has hoisted an average of 611 passes/season since 2011 (the year they drafted Julio) and completed 66% of them. Plus, he doesn’t miss games even despite the beating he took last year. Now I’m not here to pump up my QB. Outside of FF, what concerns me is that a guy we just gave $100M contract to couldn’t win more games than Chad Henne did in 2013. I know it’s not all his fault, but I can’t help but think that these elitely paid QB’s should be good for 6-7 wins alone. So there is that.
And even with all the huffing and puffing the Falcons are doing at moment to become a more physical team again which they feel will be manifested in a renewed commitment to the running game, I don’t think they have the horses to carry the ball 450-475 times as a team. Last year, they carried the ball 321 times, fewest in the NFL. That’s where my criticism of Dimitroff is probably the loudest. You don’t have to be spending 1st or 2nd round sections on RB’s every other year. But Devonta Freeman represents the highest drafted RB Atlanta has drafted under Dimtroff. And he was drafted in the 4th round.
While Julio/Roddy may have ceded the top spot in WR combos to Marshall/Jeffrey…you’d be hard-pressed to find two more better than them. Losing Tony Gonzalez hurts a lot. Production wise he can be replaced for the most part, but he was Ryan’s security blanket in tough spots. That’s not easily replacable. The bottomline though is that I don’t see the Falcons changing that much offensively in terms of what they’ll do. While you won’t see a repeat of last years 68:32 pass/run ratio…It’s not going to be dipping below 60:40. And I suspect it’ll settle in the 62:38 area. And with Roddy/Julio back presumably healthy, the Falcons should be able to run more than the 1017 plays they ran last year.
In real life, is Andrew Luck better than Matt Ryan…? It’s debatable…Luck looks awfully good so far. Ryan hasn’t been chopped liver at all but I could see the argument for Luck. FF wise though? Luck at the moment profiles as being selected two full rounds (FFC) before Ryan. That’s where I would struggle to justify Luck’s value vs. Ryan.
Steven Jackson – Coming into last year, I thought Jackson would do a more than adequate job of replacing Michael Turner as the fulcrum of the Falcons rushing attack. But at the end of the day, Jackson’s questionable durability and inability to consistently move the ball on the ground (not to mention a propensity to drop passes) didn’t leave me feeling to confident that he’d change the negative perception that formed in my mind of him. And I don’t want to sound too harsh. The guys been a fantastic pro. But he’s also 7 touches away from 3000 in his career. He’s a big RB who has taken a lot of hits on a lot of bad teams and is now 31. While last year may not be a great barometer of how effective Jackson could be given the Falcons O-Line struggles, I would anticipate defenses playing nickel a lot of the time against them. While Jackson may be able to pound on those fronts to get an extra yard here or there, he doesn’t have the speed to expose gaps those fronts may present. In an offense that still retains the capacity to be very dangerous attacking through the air, to have their primary ball carrying option not possess any element of danger…well then that’s going to make the sledding tougher for the Falcons. As such, I think that by Week 5, the Falcons will be in full RBBC mode.
Devonta Freeman – When the Falcons 4th round selection came up in the draft, I thought it would have been almost irresponsible of Dimitroff if he didn’t take Devonta Freeman. Normally you don’t say that about a 4th round draft choice. And it’s not that I believe so much in Freeman’s abilities that I thought he needed to be the pick there, but moreso because the cupboard at RB was so bare for the Falcons that they almost had no choice. In Freeman, I thought they did get great value and he steps into an RB situation where he can be an immediate and sizable contributor. While the Falcons have tried to position Jacquizz Rodgers as a change-of-pace RB for the last three years, Rodgers has failed to change-the-pace. If Turner and Jackson were big and slow, well Rodgers has been small and slow as his career 3.6 YPC attests. I don’t think Freeman has the talent of Giovanni Bernard, but I think he’s landed in a situation where he can have just as great a rookie year impact as him. So long as he can pick up pass protection quickly (and it appears he did fairly well during mini-camp season) he’ll be on the field a lot for the Falcons. Where he’ll be limited in terms of his FF production will be the red zone. I can’t see him having a big role down by the goal line in 2014 so I would think he could only top out at 3-4 TD’s. That said, if Jackson gets injured, even for a couple of weeks, Freeman might be given the opportunity to run away with the job. At RB45, he has a lot of projectable upside but there are some obstacles for him to be put in a position to become a force.
Jacquizz Rodgers – Actually see him not making it out of TC. I see Antone Smith being the Falcons RB3.
Julio Jones – 41/580/2. In 5 games. At the time of his foot injury, Julio was becoming the centerpiece of the Falcons passing attack. That’s really what made his injury so devastating for the Falcons. At the time, you’ll remember that Roddy was still struggling with his ankle injury and was a shadow of his former self. And yet, with 12 targets/game, Julio was bringing in 68% of them averaging 116 YPG. Even his final catch of the season was spectacular. A one handed grab of a Ryan bomb against the Jets with Antonio Cromartie essentially holding the other arm…while the Falcons season was descending into a pit of ugliness, it was as gorgeous a catch as you’ll see. Physically, Jones is the closest thing to Megatron the NFL has to offer. And while he’s been very productive so far during his career (when he’s been on the field), it’s telling that he’s never exceeded 79/1198/10 (all in 2012). While part of that has been due to his inability to stay on the field, it’s also because he’s been part of a receiving troika for Matt Ryan that provided multiple great options depending upon situation. With White showing signs of age and Gonzalez retired, it’s going to be Julio. All. The. Time. He may have a bad game here or there…but the for the Falcons, it’s time now to build the offense around Ryan/Julio. Prior to this year, it’s been a diversified offense that provided a smart QB the opportunity to get to his 2nd/3rd reads confidently because his stable of pass catchers was superior. No more. I think Julio could very well lead the NFL in targets (200 range) and when you consider how accurate Ryan has been along with the fact that Julio is a DB’s nightmare, I just sense that the Falcons are going to ride Julio. Even last year, you would hear White/Julio refer to themselves as Option 1A & 1B. Julio is the clear 1 now…he was built to be the #1 WR on an NFL team and now it’s time for him to carry the Falcons passing attack on his back.
Roddy White – White had always been very durable and to my knowledge had never missed a game. So I think he wound up doing himself a disservice when he tried to play through a HAS. When Roddy finally got his legs back beneath him, he was able to somewhat salvage his 2013 with a 43/502/2 line over his final 5 games. So a healthy White is still an effective White. But he’s finally the #2 WR on this team and while he had a dominant 5 game stretch at the end of 2013, it was without Julio on the other side. Now I think there is plenty of production to go around. I‘m skeptical of the Falcons depth at WR past these two players. So I expect that should be stay healthy, Roddy should have a nice bounceback year. But he strikes me as a high FF WR2 (maybe low WR1) now vs. the perennial WR1 he was from 2007-2012 (6 year average of 94/1295/8).
Harry Douglas – So I’ll be honest here. I’ve never been a big fan. Well, that’s not true…after his rookie year, I thought he showed a lot of potential. Then he tore his ACL. He struggled to come back from it…by the time he did, Julio was on board. So with a full deck, Douglas was always the #4 option in a stacked passing game. With a chance to become more of a leading player when the Falcons were beset by injuries…he wasn’t bad, but I also think he demonstrated some shortcomings that have always prevented him from becoming a more integral part of the Falcons passing attack. For one, in 207 career receptions…he has 6 TD’s. Last season was his first season with multiple receiving TD’s (2, in a 113 targets). With Gonzalez retired, the Falcons have stated that they plan to go with more 3 WR sets…which makes sense, that’s where there talent is. But Douglas has never struck me as especially effective from the slot. With the multi-dimensional talents though of the Falcons other 2 WR’s, I could see all 3 being leveraged to vary up looks and formations against defenses. But at 6’0 180-185 pounds, Douglas doesn’t possess the speed to take the tops off of defenses, he doesn’t possess the shiftiness to get open in small spaces or generate YAC once he does get the ball. And his size prevents him from being much of a red zone threat. He’s a between the 20’s guy. However, now the #3 option in a passing offense, with defenses focusing on Julio/Roddy, there should be opportunity here for Douglas to be productive.
Levine Toilolo – He’s 6’8 265 pounds. His rookie year, he caught 11 passes for 55 yards and 2 TD’s. The Falcons have stated that he could profile as a red zone option in the passing game. But for a team that had as many issues running the ball as they’ve had the last 2 years because of either 1) poor line play or 2) old and slow RB’s, they’ll need as much help as they can get from their in-line TE. So I’m not even sure if Toilolo gets the starting assignment ahead of a guy like Bear Pascoe. Ultimately he profiles as a poor man’s Kyle Rudolph at best.
Predictions
Ryan – 402 Completions 626 Attempts 4728 Passing Yards 29 TD’s 15 INT’s; 32 Rushes 59 Rushing Yards 1 TD.
Jackson – 157 Rushing Attempts 593 Rushing Yards 7 TD’s. 37 Receptions 248 Receiving Yards
Freeman – 167 Rushing Attempts, 720 Rushing Yards 2 TD’s. 40 Receptions 311 Receiving Yards 1 TD.
Smith – 32 Rushes, 144 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.
Julio – 121 Receptions 1778 Receiving Yards 12 TD’s; 5 rushes 32 Rushing Yards
Roddy – 85 Receptions, 1158 Receiving Yards 7 TD’s.
Douglas – 62 Receptions, 752 Receiving Yards 3 TD’s.
Toilolo – 14 Receptions, 86 Receiving Yards 4 TD’s.
