2014 Player/Team Spotlight -- Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2014 Team & Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. We are trying something different this year. We will still publish more than 100 PLAYER SPOTLIGHT articles on the main site. But we are going to solicit discussion on them in these TEAM threads.

Why the change?

NFL success is contingent on the sum of a team's parts. To think that a wide receiver succeeds simply because of himself would be foolhardy. What if a team has three excellent fantasy WR options (e.g., Denver with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders)? Is a person's enthusiasm for a given player being properly offset against lesser expectations for one of their teammates?

Frankly, there was a lot of redundancy in former Spotlight threads. Asking you all to discuss the Giants new OC Ben McAdoo in threads for Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Odell Beckham and Rashad Jennings seems inefficient. Now, in this new format, you can factor McAdoo (or any other team change) and it's impact on ALL the relevant skill players.

Thread Topic: Miami Dolphins

The NEW Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the fantasy relevant players in question, and your expectations for said players
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the relevant players on each team. We would note that it's important that your statistics makes sense. For example, projecting two running backs on the same team with 2,000 yards is an obvious gaffe. You might have three WR/TEs projected for 1,000+ yards, but that would be aggressive and a historical rarity. Back it up.

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Recommended Players to Discuss:

• QB Ryan Tannehill
• RB Knowshon Moreno
• RB Lamar Miller
• WR Mike Wallace
• WR Brian Hartline
• WR Jarvis Landry
• TE Charles Clay

Each PLAYER SPOTLIGHT article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web, including intriguing pull quotes from this thread
• FBG Projections

 

[FF Ninja]

I think this could be one of the more exciting situations to monitor. Everyone on this offense can be had cheaply, via a discount due to a lackluster 2013 that was capped off by blowing a shot to make the playoffs.

However, much has changed since the end of 2013:

-fired Mike Sherman, brought in an inexperienced OC (QB coach for Phi last year)

-signed Moreno to a 1-year deal

-massively upgraded the O-line (4 out of 5 new starters)

Here are the details about that offensive line:

Signed Brandon Albert, former first round pick, solid but unspectacular LT

Drafted Ja'wuan James 19th overall to likely play RT

Drafted Billy Turner 67th overall who can play tackle or guard

Signed Shelley Smith who should be a very capable starter at guard for them

They won't be a top unit in 2014, but they should move from bottom 3 to the middle of the pack. This will help both the running game and the passing game.

At QB, Tannehill took a step forward, reaching 24 TDs, but failed to crack 7 YPA. Now would be a good time to point out that he is, at worst, in the middle of the pack as far as deep ball accuracy goes. He and Wallace had atrocious chemistry last year which really hurt his deep numbers and led to many ridiculous assumptions that he is a horrible deep passer to be stated as fact. There are statistical breakdowns to refute these assertions. Thus, I've got quite a bit of faith that Tannehill can see an improvement in year 3, but that improvement could range from small to significant depending on a few factors:

-effectiveness of new OC

-actual improvement from theoretically improved o-line

-chemistry with Wallace

If all three of those things pan out, Tannehill could easily eclipse 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. But a factor working against him is that he threw the ball 588 times last year while the Eagles only threw the ball 508 times, so if Lazor takes a page out of Chip Kelly's book then there may not be as many pass attempts. Then again, Moreno/Miller won't pack quite the punch that McCoy did so he might be forced to pass regardless of intended game plan.

Speaking of Moreno/Miller, I had been hoping to snag Miller late - not due to overwhelming talent - but just due to situation. Moreno hasn't been the more durable over the years and Miller is probably good enough to produce reasonable numbers if he were to find himself starting. He wasn't good enough to make his own yards last year, but with an improved line he should be a serviceable fantasy play. And if Moreno can get back on track, he should do sufficiently as well, although he won't be seeing nearly as many nickel or dime defenses as he saw last year. Damien Williams out of OU is a guy to keep an eye on, too. He's got the size and speed to be a force should he get a chance.

Back to the passing game, I'm not high on Landry. I actually think Matthews was a very nice slot receiver last year and will hold off the slow, small Landry at least in 2014. Hartline should continue to function sufficiently as the WR2. He's shown good chemistry with Tannehill the last two years. Wallace has nowhere to go but up in the chemistry department and should be somewhat of a draft day steal if he can improve there. He's one of the most likely guys I see going as a WR3 to sneak back into the WR1 rankings by the end of the year. Beyond his inability to connect deep, he came down with a very bad case of the dropsies last year, which he'd been rather immune to his whole career. Should the perfect storm of underperformance lift, I don't see how he doesn't at least produce as a high end WR2, given he finished just outside of WR2 territory last year. It should be noted that Gibson looked very good in the slot last year prior to injury, but his health may keep him from making the final cut this year.

I'd still like to see Miami sign Keller or Finley, but Clay proved surprisingly capable last year at the TE position. If no one is added to the roster then he'll probably finish around the bottom of the top 10 once again, providing some value relative to his ADP, but not likely propelling your team to fantasy greatness on his own.

While I'm very optimistic about this offense, I'm going to try to keep my projections closer to my anticipated floor rather than ceiling. So these stats are not their floor, but they are not near the upside I think this offense could produce. Should they sign a TE and opt for two TE sets rather than a slot receiver, then Mathews and Clay will see significant changes, although I'll probably be too lazy to edit these projections.

Tannehill - 550 att x 7.5 ypa = 4125 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT

Wallace - 130 targets x 58% = 75 rec x 16 ypr = 1200 yards 9 TDs

Hartline - 120 targets x 57% = 68 rec x 14 ypr = 950 yards 5 TDs

Matthews - 100 targets x 62% = 62 rec x 11 ypr = 680 yards 4 TDs

Clay - 100 targets x 65% = 65 rec x 11 ypr = 715 yards 5 TDs

Miller + Moreno - 350 carries x 4.3 ypc = 1505 yards, 9 TD, 70 targets x 75% = 53 rec x 7.5 ypr = 400 yards, 2 TD

 

[swirvenirvin]

The Dolphins are expected to implement read-option plays into their offense this season.
With old Chip Kelly OC Bill Lazor now running the show, the Dolphins want to take advantage of Ryan Tannehill's athleticism. Cement-footed Nick Foles quietly had three rushing TDs and 221 rushing yards in only ten starts under Kelly and Lazor last season. Tannehill, a college wide receiver, has managed 449 yards rushing and three touchdowns through his first two seasons. Adding a run element to his repertoire would be a boost. He's a solid two-QB-league target

I think this is pretty big news or if not news at least something to consider here.

I've got him projected for 67 attempts for 365 and 3 td's it pushes him up a little when considering your backup QB.