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2014 Show Off Your New Toys (1 Viewer)

FFPC Scoring (TE Premium)

1.1 Watkins

1.2 Ebron

1.9 ODB (traded back from 1.5, swapped a 2015 2nd for a 2015 1st)

1.10 Tre Mason

2.5 Devonta Freeman (passed on Benjamin and Lee)

2.8 Terrance West

 
10 Team IDP

1.1 Watkins

1.5 Beckham

1.6 Ebron

1.10 Lee

2.4 Ladarius Green

2.10 Hill

4.4 Paul Worillow

5.4 Everson Griffen

Traded Nicks for 2016 1st

Traded Welker for Hill

 
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12 team PPR

1.01- Sammy Watkins

1.11- Allen Robinson

2.02- Devonte Freeman

4.05- Jeremy Gallon

4.09- Marion Grice

5.09- AC Leonard

12 team PPR

1.01 -Sammy Watkins

1.05/1.12 traded for -Cordarelle Patterson

1.07 -Odell Beckham

1.11- Marquis Lee/3.11 traded for 2.03/3.01

2.01- Devonte Freeman

2.03- Allen Robinson

2.08- Martavis Bryant

3.01- Teddy Bridgewater

3.02- Lorenzo Taliaferro

3.06- Travis Kelce

4.10- Stephen Houston

4.11- Shaq Evans

16 team PPR/IDPs

1.07-Eric Ebron

2.07-CJ Mosley

3.07-Kadeem Carey

3.13-Christian Kirksey

 
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All PPR, start 1 QB, 12-14 Tm:

J. Hill (3): 1.08, 1.13, 2.03

J. Landry (3): 3.02, 3.03, 3.09

T.Mason (2): 2.01, 2.02

B. Cooks: 1.06

O.Beckham: 1.07

E. Ebron: 1.08

M. Lee: 1.11

J. Manziel: 2.06

J. McKinnon: 3.10

 
Somebody should collect the names and number of posts and see who we all seem to be drafting. I'm sure there have to be a few Shark Pool favorites.
Working on this now actually, I'll edit this post when I'm done with the results.

EDIT: Here's the spreadsheet sorted by most picks... figured it'd be easiest viewed in a public google doc. If you notice any errors in team, position, spelling or counts let me know. I'll try to keep this updated as much as possible. I did not include any IDPs as there were only like 2 posts w/ IDP players in them. So I figured I'd separate them out.

Last Updated: Tuesday - 5/27/2014 - 10:41AM EST
Updated to this point

 
12 Team PPR Q/R/R/W/W/T/F/F/K/D

This is initial rookie draft of a startup dynasty league. Basically Traded Dobson for 1.09 (Beckham)

1.03 TE Eric Ebron DET

1.09 WR Odell Beckham NYG

2.03 RB Tre Mason STL

3.03 QB Teddy Bridgewater MIN .... Traded Bridgewater for 2015 2nd.

12 Team PPR Q/R/R/W/W/W/T/F/K/D

1.02 WR Mike Evans TB

1.08 TE Eric Ebron DET *

2.02 WR Davante Adams GB

2.08 RB Devonta Freeman ATL *

3.02 RB Isaiah Crowell CLE

4.02 WR Paul Richardson SEA

5.02 RB Marion Grice SDC

* Completes trade of H.Nicks for Dobson,1.08 (Ebron),2.08 (Freeman)

First draft I thought I did OK. My plan was if I didn't get Evans was to take Ebron then the best WR available. No way I thought it would be Beckham there so it played out better than I expected.

Second draft I think I nailed it. Landed Ebron again but much cheaper. I think I took Crowell too high but RB's were drying up and thought at 3.02 he was worth a shot. I almost took Grice at 4.02 but could not pass up the value of Richardson there, and still got Grice at 5.02.

 
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16 team PPR IDP contract league. Start 1QB, 2-3RB, 2-3WR, 1-2TE, PK, 3DL, 4LB, 2CB, 2S. 46 roster spots + 8 taxi squad spots.

1.05 Eric Ebron TE DET

1.07 Odell Beckham WR NYG

1.13 Blake Bortles QB JAC

1.15 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR

2.09 Allen Robinson WR JAC

2.15 Andre Williams RB NYG

3.01 Jace Amaro TE NYJ

3.07 Storm Johnson RB JAC

3.08 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB

3.09 Christian Kirksey LB CLE

3.10 Martavis Bryant WR PIT

3.11 Dominique Easley DT NE

4.11 Kony Ealy DE CAR

5.06 Chris Borland LB SF

6.13 John Brown WR ARI

8.10 Chris Smith DE JAC

8.11 Darqueze Dennard CB CIN

8.14 Carl Bradford LB GB

I also have 20 2015 draft picks. I took over this team last season and tore the team down and now I'm in the middle of rebuidling it.

 
My point being... that the statistics at the RB position are a changing.
Either that or it was just a one year aberration. I think I may have misspoken when I used "FF relevant" as my criteria. Lots of guys like Julius Jones, Steve Slaton, and A-Train have come along and given a team a shot in the arm for a year. Quite a few of them faded into obscurity in the long run though. I think last year's 2nd round RB group is looking pretty good, but would not be surprised to see Bell or Ball wash out soon.

I'm not going to get into an argument about the league's changing valuation of the RB position, but I don't put a lot of stock in that noise. If you really look at the athletic traits and college careers of the last two RB classes you'll see why nobody went as high as the likes of Spiller, Mathews, Martin, and Trent. It's more about the player pool than the league's shifting approach to the position.

Anyways, it just seems like you're advocating situation over talent. Looking for a quick pop instead of taking the true best player available. That can work out well and situation is really important for RBs and for non-elite WRs. All the same, I don't see a credible argument for how you can compare the outlook of a 2nd round WR like Robinson to the outlook of 4th+ round players like Crowell, Bryant, Lattimore, and Carey. That stuck out to me as odd and doesn't really add up.

I'm always a little puzzled when people downgrade a WR because he goes to a bad team. The way I see it there are two types of good situations for a WR. One is going to a team with such a great QB that he can support multiple strong FF options (i.e. Packers, Patriots, Broncos, Saints). The other is going to a team with such a weak WR group that the player can dominate all the targets because there's no one else viable to catch the ball. A lot of the better rookie WRs of recent years came from that latter cluster (Gordon, Blackmon, Wright, Boldin, Mike Williams, Michael Clayton, AJ Green).

From that perspective, I don't see how Robinson on the Jags where he can potentially be the #1 guy from day one is worse than Adams on the Packers or Latimer on the Broncos where they're likely the 3rd most talented receiver on the roster at best. I'd say the same for Watkins in Buffalo. The Bills suck and are a joke of a front office. Isn't that kind of a good thing though? He'll be the man there if he's as talented as they think and could get 150+ targets per season.
Disagree with this. I think a few years ago many teams were against any RB in the first with a few holdouts still willing to invest a 1st. Now, pretty much everyone is on the same page after seeing Trent Richardson and others not pan out (and the value found later). Next year if we again don't have any 1st round RBs, I think we can put this argument to rest.

My strong suspicion is that no 1st round RBs is the new normal and not a fluke based upon the talent level of the last 2 classes.

If so, you can throw all the old stats about RBs taken in round 2-4 out the window.

 
Already written at length about that. The "RBs are devalued" argument will be worth considering when the league starts passing on the kind of backs that it has historically taken in the first round. That hasn't happened in either of the last two drafts, so for the time being it's much ado about nothing.

I have a whole spreadsheet with workout numbers for all the first round RBs since the Steven Jackson/Chris Perry/Kevin Jones class.

If you're interested in some of the results, I made this post a while back:

This would be more meaningful to me if the arbitrary cut off for big vs. small wasn't 210, when two of the upper tier prospects were measured at 207 and 209. So if Sankey was one pound heavier, he'd be a lock for the 1st round? He would certainly meet all the of the other criteria you mentioned.
Here is the list of players by BMI along with their 40 times:

NAME BMI 40 Jonathan Stewart 33.5 4.46 Trent Richardson 33.5 4.48 Doug Martin 32.7 4.46 Rashard Mendenhall 32.2 4.41 Mark Ingram 31.7 4.62 DeAngelo Williams 31.6 4.45 Ronnie Brown 31.4 4.43 Cedric Benson 31.4 4.62 Beanie Wells 30.9 4.52 Kevin Jones 30.8 X Knowshon Moreno 30.7 4.5 Cadillac Williams 30.5 4.43 Steven Jackson 30.1 4.55 Chris Perry 30 4.56 Donald Brown 30 4.46 Ryan Mathews 30 4.37 David Wilson 30 4.38 Marshawn Lynch 29.9 4.46 Laurence Maroney 29.7 4.48 Joseph Addai 29.7 4.4 Felix Jones 29.6 4.44 Jahvid Best 28.5 4.34 Reggie Bush 28.3 4.37 Adrian Peterson 28.3 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 4.33 CJ Spiller 27.7 4.27 Chris Johnson 27.5 4.24

The average BMI is 30.3. Once you start to get around ~1.5 points off that mark, I think you start to get into the territory of "big" and "small" backs. It is a little bit arbitrary, but there is a pretty large gap between that bottom cluster and the rest of the group. It's also very interesting that all six of the 28.5 or lower BMI backs ran at least a 4.40 in the 40. It demonstrates how critical it is to be blazing fast if you're a RB with a lean frame.

If you sort by weight, you get something like this:

Joseph Addai 29.7 214 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 211 4.33 Donald Brown 30 210 4.46 Felix Jones 29.6 207 4.44 David Wilson 30 206 4.38 Reggie Bush 28.3 201 4.37 Jahvid Best 28.5 199 4.34 Chris Johnson 27.5 197 4.24 CJ Spiller 27.7 196 4.27

The same general pattern holds true. Ignoring BMI, it's accurate to just look at weight and conclude that lighter backs have to be faster to be drafted high.

You can argue about the specifics all you want, but the general pattern is obvious. Any RB lower on the weight/BMI scale will generally have to run a blazing 40 time to get picked in the 1st round. Look at the 40 times for guys like Gio Bernard (4.50), Tre Mason (4.50), Lache Seastrunk (4.51), and Bishop Sankey (4.49). Those guys all weigh between 200-209 pounds and none of them has even above average measured track speed. The combination of the low overall weight and the lack of 40 speed probably explains why you didn't/won't see those guys come off the board in the first 32 picks.

It's a very similar story for the big backs. Even if they're heavy, they still have to test well. Of the 27 first round RBs, only 6 ran 4.50 or slower (Beanie, SJax, Benson, Perry, Moreno, Ingram). Of that group, only two ran 4.60 or slower (Benson and Ingram). That's a bad sign for Eddie Lacy (4.64), Carlos Hyde (4.66), and Jeremy Hill (4.66). LeVeon Bell ran 4.56 in the 40 (slower than everyone besides Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, and Cedric Benson). He also did very poorly in the jumps with a 31.5" vertical and 9'10" broad jump. Both well off the average marks.

teams won't pay up for a starting RB unless he's viewed as a supreme talent.
That is the key idea. It's not enough to be serviceable to get picked this high. A RB prospect generally needs to be either insanely explosive (i.e. Spiller, McFadden, Bush) or be big with solid explosiveness for that size (i.e. Stewart, Martin, Mathews).

None of the highly-touted RB prospects from the 2013 class or 2014 class fit that mold, which has nothing to do with the league's valuation of RBs and everything to do with the player pool. You can't say that the NBA doesn't value franchise centers when all the centers in the draft are 6'9". That's essentially what's been going on the past two years. The argument that the league has moved away from coveting franchise backs would be a lot more compelling if there were somebody with awesome measurables, versatility and production who still somehow slipped out of the first round. I haven't seen that.

What we're seeing is probably just a temporary down cycle in the quality of the backs coming out of college. It doesn't help that a guy like Lattimore blew up his knee twice while a guy like Dyer who has freaky mass/speed/explosiveness went off the rails. If those things don't happen, maybe we're talking about how this 2014 class is a huge disappointment relative to the two first round RBs we had last year.
Some CliffsNotes details that stuck out to me:

- The average first round RB is 217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

- 21 of 27 had a BMI of 29.6 or higher. All 6 below that threshold ran at least a 4.40 in the 40.

There is an inverse correlation between body thickness and 40 time, which is why almost all of the fastest times came from the lightest/thinnest backs (i.e. Jahvid Best, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush). Ryan Mathews is the only back with a 30+ BMI to also run a 4.3X or faster in the 40. McFadden and Mathews were the only 210+ pound backs to run 4.3X or better and McFadden is near the very bottom of the BMI scale (he has a decent weight, but only because he's tall).

If you want to look at this stuff more, let's go back to the averages for a second...

217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

It's not quite accurate to view these as cutoffs since a really fast/explosive back can get away with being lighter than 217/30.3 and a really heavy/thick back can get away with being slower/less explosive than 4.44/35.8"/10'2". In fact, MOST first round RBs won't hit the mark in every drill. But in general, these are good ballpark figures for what a first round RB needs to look like physically. Now consider this year's RB class, as ranked by Draft Scout:

Tre Mason - 207 pounds, 31.1 BMI, 4.50 40, 38.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump.

Carlos Hyde - 230 pounds, 31.5 BMI, 4.66 40, 34.5" vertical, 9'6" broad jump

Bishop Sankey - 209 pounds, 30.5 BMI, 4.49 40, 35.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump

Jeremy Hill - 233 pounds, 31.2 BMI, 4.66 40, 29" vertical, 9'5" broad jump

KaDeem Carey - 207 pounds, 30.3 BMI, 4.70 40, 32.5" vertical, 9'7" broad jump

Andre Williams - 230 pounds, 31.8 BMI, 4.56 40, 38" vertical, 10'9" broad jump

Terrance West - 225 pounds, 33.0 BMI, 4.54 40, 33.5" vertical, 10'0" broad jump

Lache Seastrunk - 201 pounds, 29.3 BMI, 4.51 40, 41.5" vertical, 11'2" broad jump

The fact that none of these guys has a totally clean profile shouldn't be very alarming, as it's almost impossible to find a RB who wouldn't have at least one red mark here. Peterson would get dinged for his BMI. Chris Johnson for his BMI and weight. Steven Jackson for any number of things. Of the guys on my list, only Jonathan Stewart and Marshawn Lynch clear the bar in every category. Mathews and Martin are extremely close. The fact that none of these rookies met that standard isn't really that damning on its own.

However, there are some interesting things in these rookie results. First off, if you look at all of the guys who are red-flagged for low weight, every single one of them is also red-flagged for a slow 40 time. In other words, the light backs in this draft are also not very fast. So there's no CJ Spiller or Reggie Bush this year.

Hyde and Hill pass the weight/BMI barriers easily, but they're off the mark in the speed/explosiveness. That's to be expected to a certain extent, as thicker/heavier backs tend to run a little slower and jump a little worse. It's not the fact that they missed the averages that's alarming. It's the fact that they missed by such a huge margin. Their 4.66 40 times aren't even remotely close to the 4.46 average. Hyde has a moderately decent vertical and putrid broad jump. Hill was just awful in the jumps. Far, far off the standard of guys like Doug Martin, Steven Jackson, and Ryan Mathews.

Carey's profile is just an absolute mess, as he's at or below average in every category. Usually by a huge margin.

If you believe that Seastrunk's pro day time is more accurate than his combine time, he starts to look like he has a shout at being a Jahvid Best/Reggie Bush/CJ Spiller/David Wilson type who compensates for small size with dynamic workout measurables. Therein lies the problem though. He ran a 4.51 at the neutral environment of the combine. Hardly a 1st round time for a 201 pound back.

Terrance West is intriguing because of his respectable 40/broad/vertical at a high weight and BMI, but all the same he's below par in all of those drills. Add in the small school factor and he's certainly not a first round back.

Oddly enough, Andre Williams comes out with the cleanest profile. On paper, he has many of the physical qualities of a first round back. He's big. He's explosive. He's reasonably fast for his height. I think he's a prime candidate to be picked higher than projected, but ultimately he's probably not quite special enough. Especially when you factor in subjective analysis and his total lack of elusiveness/receiving ability.

That's a really long-winded post, but I'm just trying to illustrate why I don't buy the "RBs are devalued narrative."

If Hyde had blown up the combine with a 4.45 40, a 38" vertical, and a 10'5" broad jump at his same height/weight, he'd likely be right in the first round mix.

It takes the right combination of physical traits and nobody out there seems like a strong candidate this year.
 
14 team IDP PPR - RB, WR, TE, 3FLEX,

2.13 - Allen Robinson

2.14 - Devonta Freeman

3.14 - Isaiah Crowell

4.14 - Paul Richardson

5.14 - CJ Anderson

Traded up to 2.13 as I had a group of 4 players I wanted. Got Robinson, Freeman then Crowell fell to my next pick (Martavis Bryant was the other guy, FWIW). Delighted.

 
In a startup, these are the rookies I selected and where:

5.06 Mike Evans
12.10 Isaiah Crowell

13.03 Paul Richardson

19.03 Derek Carr

25.03 John Brown

UDFA David Fales

 
EBF said:
Already written at length about that. The "RBs are devalued" argument will be worth considering when the league starts passing on the kind of backs that it has historically taken in the first round. That hasn't happened in either of the last two drafts, so for the time being it's much ado about nothing.
I disagree with this. The NFL has punted on the RB position in the first round twice in history--back-to-back, the last two seasons. The odds that the these are also the worst RB classes in history, again, back-to-back, are very slim.

The classes have lacked Richardson, Peterson, McFadden prospects, but not Chris Perry level prospects.

 
I disagree with this. The NFL has punted on the RB position in the first round twice in history--back-to-back, the last two seasons. The odds that the these are also the worst RB classes in history, again, back-to-back, are very slim.

The classes have lacked Richardson, Peterson, McFadden prospects, but not Chris Perry level prospects.
Perry flopped in the NFL and that has caused some hindsight bias. Let's look at him as a prospect though:

5'11.8"

220 pounds

BMI - 30.0

40 - 4.56

Vertical Leap - 34.5"

Broad Jump - 10'4"

Three Cone - 7.02 seconds

He pretty much fits the bill physically. Slower than average, but he's slightly heavier than average and his jumps were almost right on the average for a first round back. He roughly fits the Lynch/Addai mold as a big back with solid measurables in every category. His college production was good too. He had two thousand yard seasons at Michigan. In his final season there he rushed for 1674 yards and 18 TDs. He also caught 44 passes, showing rare versatility for a big back.

You act as if Chris Perry was a bad prospect, but on paper he's almost the perfectly average 1st round back. Just a bit too slow.

If the league has been passing on Chris Perry level prospects the last two years, I'd ask who in the last two classes was a Chris Perry level prospect? I don't see one. To be honest, most of the people banging the "RB is devalued" drum haven't done the legwork to actually look at the numbers. So you get statements like, "RB is devalued. Carlos Hyde would've been a first round pick ten years ago."

On the surface, that sounds credible enough. If you actually look at the numbers, you'll see why it's a pretty ridiculous claim. Here's how Hyde stacks up:

5'11 7/8" 230 pounds

BMI - 31.5

40 - 4.61

Vertical Leap - 34.5"

Broad Jump - 9'6"

Three Cone - ???

So he has above average size, but his 40 time was very bad. Of the 27 first round RBs I looked at, only two ran slower (Benson and Ingram at 4.62). Hyde's vertical leap was solid, but still slightly below average. Where he really suffers is the broad jump. His 9'6" leap would literally be worse than any of the 27 RBs in my sample. When you combine the slow 40 and the anemic broad jump, you get the picture of a player who's sorely lacking north-south explosiveness. That is largely the same story with LeVeon Bell, who had bad numbers overall. Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Hill were almost comically awful in the testing.

This is a player pool issue, not a team preference issue. It's just a flukey run of variance. If Christine Michael and Mike Dyer don't have their respective issues, both probably go in the 1st round in 2013. If Todd Gurley has another strong CFB season and breaks the 1st round averages in a few of the combine drills, he'll likely have a good case for breaking the streak. Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and David Wilson all basically fit the mold of historical 1st round backs. Not surprisingly, they went in the 1st round. When the players worth coveting are out there, the league will covet them.

I'd actually argue that Bell, Ball, Hill, Lacy, and Hyde going as high as they did with such pedestrian athletic traits is proof that the league is pretty desperate for good backs.

 
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RB has clearly been devalued. Plenty of people have done the leg work and it's been provided over and over again. RBs are not just getting drafted later, they are also getting paid less in FA and paid less on average comparatively to other positions in the NFL. It's a litany of support that says RBs are being devalued and you choose to only look at the draft.

 
Here is another scary little factoid with Hyde:

His 10 yard split in the 40 was 1.69 seconds. Greg Robinson and Taylor Lewan, two of the top OL in the draft, each ran it in 1.71 seconds.

Robinson weighs 100 pounds more than Hyde.

Maybe it was a technique issue. If you have bad technique, it can wreck your start. Hyde's overall 40 time was a bit faster than the linemen. All the same, it's not really what you want to see out of a potential 1st round back. A typical 1st round back will run the 10 yard split in the 1.5X range and a real burner like Spiller, Mathews, or Best will usually clock in the high 1.4X range.

 
Perry flopped in the NFL and that has caused some hindsight bias. Let's look at him as a prospect though:
Combine numbers are one part of a much bigger picture. But if you'd like--you set the criteria, then I track it down. I am sure Jerrick McKinnon will meet whatever it is. And if not, I'll have every draft in NFL history save the last two to pick from. I like those odds.

If Perry doesn't work--how about Ingram?

 
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Here is another scary little factoid with Hyde:

His 10 yard split in the 40 was 1.69 seconds. Greg Robinson and Taylor Lewan, two of the top OL in the draft, each ran it in 1.71 seconds.

Robinson weighs 100 pounds more than Hyde.

Maybe it was a technique issue. If you have bad technique, it can wreck your start. Hyde's overall 40 time was a bit faster than the linemen. All the same, it's not really what you want to see out of a potential 1st round back. A typical 1st round back will run the 10 yard split in the 1.5X range and a real burner like Spiller, Mathews, or Best will usually clock in the high 1.4X range.
The NFL clearly doesn't put as much stock into this combination of 3 to 5 stats as you do.

 
12 Team, non-ppr IDP (Zealots league)

1.08 - Devonta Freeman
1.10 - Davante Adams
2.03 - C.J. Mosley
2.10 - Teddy Bridgewater
3.08 - Lorenzo Teliaferro
3.10 - Demarcus Lawrence
5.10 - Zach Mettenberger
6.10 - Josh Huff

That's really late for Huff. I feel good about this one.
 
Here is another scary little factoid with Hyde:

His 10 yard split in the 40 was 1.69 seconds. Greg Robinson and Taylor Lewan, two of the top OL in the draft, each ran it in 1.71 seconds.

Robinson weighs 100 pounds more than Hyde.

Maybe it was a technique issue. If you have bad technique, it can wreck your start. Hyde's overall 40 time was a bit faster than the linemen. All the same, it's not really what you want to see out of a potential 1st round back. A typical 1st round back will run the 10 yard split in the 1.5X range and a real burner like Spiller, Mathews, or Best will usually clock in the high 1.4X range.
The NFL clearly doesn't put as much stock into this combination of 3 to 5 stats as you do.
On the contrary, they seem to put a lot of stock in it. That's why there's such a clear link between those numbers and draft slot. If you put in the work to actually investigate this stuff, you'd probably reach a lot of the same conclusions. You probably haven't really looked at the numbers much. I might sound like a condescending jerk here, but I've put in the time and most of the people talking about this haven't. I don't take their opinions seriously when they don't really know what they're talking about.

Combine numbers are one part of a much bigger picture. But if you'd like--you set the criteria, then I track it down. I am sure Jerrick McKinnon will meet whatever it is. And if not, I'll have every draft in NFL history save the last two to pick from. I like those odds.

If Perry doesn't work--how about Ingram?
As far as McKinnon goes, he's a good example of the difference between necessary and sufficient. Saying that all first round NBA centers are tall does not suggest that all tall college basketball players will become first round NBA centers. Likewise, it's more accurate to say that the overwhelming majority of first round NFL RBs will have special athletic traits than it is to say that all RB prospects with special athletic traits will become first round NFL RBs. Christine Michael and Knile Davis did not make it due to injuries and questionable college production (both came into the draft on the heels of disappointing seasons).

Jerick McKinnon also has some obvious things to suppress his value. He played at a small school. That's strike #1. Small school players tend to be drafted a little lower than their talent warrants. It's the league factoring in some risk based on the lower level of competition. McKinnon also played frequently as an option QB in college. He never carried the ball more than 109 times in a season. Can he carry the load? Can he thrive as a full-time back? Nobody knows. If you watch Georgia Southern play, you'll see that they ran a very weird offense that doesn't resemble an NFL offense in any way. So you have a triple whammy here of a small school, a position change, and a funky scheme. All of those things muddy the projection. Athletically, he reminds me a lot of David Wilson and if he had been playing at a major D1 program as a full-time RB, he might well have snuck into the 1st round. We'll never know. As it stands, it's not that difficult to see why he didn't.

As for your Ingram example, there are two backs in my group of 27 who stand out as being especially bad athletes. They're Mark Ingram and Cedric Benson. Based solely on their athletic ability, they had no business going in the first round. They have good size, but the explosiveness isn't there. They're absolutely bottom of the barrel in all of the drills. How did they still go in the first round? I pointed out above how McKinnon playing at a small school was likely a contributor to his modest draft slot. I think there's a flipside of that. I think players who play on a national stage at major BCS programs are a little more likely to become overrated. Let's call it the "visibility" variable. When you play on a big national stage, I think it's just a little bit easier to fool scouts. I would classify both of those picks as "mistakes" based on the performance of those players in the NFL.

Carlos Hyde is a similar type of guy in the sense that he's a bad athlete who dominated at a big program. He would have a shout for going in the 1st round as a high visibility prospect, but only if a team mistakenly let the college performance overshadow the bright flashing red warning signals.

There are always going to be exceptions to rules, but the general patterns are pretty clear. The league doesn't use first round picks on a back unless he brings special athletic qualities to the table. That typically means a small back with rare explosiveness (i.e. Best, Spiller, Bush) or a big back with rare explosiveness and versatility for that size (i.e. Lynch, Mathews, Martin). And generally they also have to come into the league with good college production and a clean bill of health. Players who don't fit either mold don't really have a good case for being first round picks. It wasn't any different ten years ago. But since we're experiencing a drought of elite RB talent and since most of the pundits haven't actually spent any real effort to look at the numbers, the lazy narrative is that backs are slipping in the draft because the position is devalued.

 
On the contrary, they seem to put a lot of stock in it. That's why there's such a clear link between those numbers and draft slot. If you put in the work to actually investigate this stuff, you'd probably reach a lot of the same conclusions. You probably haven't really looked at the numbers much. I might sound like a condescending jerk here, but I've put in the time and most of the people talking about this haven't. I don't take their opinions seriously when they don't really know what they're talking about.
No offense, but I'll put more time into researching your favorite metrics when I see them pay off in your rankings.

I know how this conversation goes--I find an example and the criteria is retroactively caveated. Rinse. Repeat. Then, years later, when I'm right (Lacy, Reed), it's "look how lucky these average prospects got!" When I'm wrong (Martin), it's obviously because of the homework I didn't do on combine numbers (I'm lazy).

 
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Somebody should collect the names and number of posts and see who we all seem to be drafting. I'm sure there have to be a few Shark Pool favorites.
Working on this now actually, I'll edit this post when I'm done with the results.

EDIT: Here's the spreadsheet sorted by most picks... figured it'd be easiest viewed in a public google doc. If you notice any errors in team, position, spelling or counts let me know. I'll try to keep this updated as much as possible. I did not include any IDPs as there were only like 2 posts w/ IDP players in them. So I figured I'd separate them out.

Last Updated: Tuesday - 5/29/2014 - 3:21PM EST
Updated to this point... this is actually becoming a really interesting spreadsheet now that we have a lot more drafts written down here. Some guys at the top I really didn't expect to see and a bunch at the bottom I didn't expect either.

Also on another note, I feel like this thread is getting derailed with random bickering and losing the point of the OP.

 
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Somebody should collect the names and number of posts and see who we all seem to be drafting. I'm sure there have to be a few Shark Pool favorites.
Working on this now actually, I'll edit this post when I'm done with the results.

EDIT: Here's the spreadsheet sorted by most picks... figured it'd be easiest viewed in a public google doc. If you notice any errors in team, position, spelling or counts let me know. I'll try to keep this updated as much as possible. I did not include any IDPs as there were only like 2 posts w/ IDP players in them. So I figured I'd separate them out.

Last Updated: Tuesday - 5/29/2014 - 3:21PM EST
Updated to this point... this is actually becoming a really interesting spreadsheet now that we have a lot more drafts written down here. Some guys at the top I really didn't expect to see and a bunch at the bottom I didn't expect either.

Also on another note, I feel like this thread is getting derailed with random bickering and losing the point of the OP.
Agreed on all counts. :-)

 
On the contrary, they seem to put a lot of stock in it. That's why there's such a clear link between those numbers and draft slot. If you put in the work to actually investigate this stuff, you'd probably reach a lot of the same conclusions. You probably haven't really looked at the numbers much. I might sound like a condescending jerk here, but I've put in the time and most of the people talking about this haven't. I don't take their opinions seriously when they don't really know what they're talking about.
No offense, but I'll put more time into researching your favorite metrics when I see them pay off in your rankings.

I know how this conversation goes--I find an example and the criteria is retroactively caveated. Rinse. Repeat. Then, years later, when I'm right (Lacy, Reed), it's "look how lucky these average prospects got!" When I'm wrong, it obviously because of the homework I didn't do on combine numbers.
I had Lacy ranked as the top RB in the draft last year.

You seem to get really defensive when people make honest and accurate criticisms of players that you like. It isn't personal. You might like Hill and Lacy. Doesn't change the fact that the concrete numbers don't support the idea that they were ever likely to be first round picks. If you based your opinion more on analysis and less based on your own subjective feelings, you would see that it's not a controversial statement.

I like Tre Mason. I also understand that as a 207 pound RB with 4.50 speed he was never ever going in the 1st round. If I didn't have a frame of reference with the historical combine data, maybe I would view him as another example of a guy who proves the devaluation of RBs. What I'm saying is that when you put in the work to build up the information on this topic, you come to see this lack of first round RBs as a natural result of the player pool.

It's hard to have a meaningful conversation about that with people who don't know the numbers and haven't put in the time to build the historical context.

 
I'm wondering if conversations like this could be had via PM instead of airing the dirty laundry for all of the rest of us to smell.

I wonder...

 
I'm wondering if conversations like this could be had via PM instead of airing the dirty laundry for all of the rest of us to smell.

I wonder...
Despite the snark, which the you can't throw a rock at and not hit in the Shark Pool, I don't see how this doesn't qualify as relevant. EBF and I are leaguemates and have had conversations on prospects for years. Because of this, we're more likely to skip the pleasantries, but are hardly airing dirty laundry.

My apologies to anyone who doesn't find our conversation productive, but I don't think it falls outside of any rules, and is related to the topic.

 
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I'm wondering if conversations like this could be had via PM instead of airing the dirty laundry for all of the rest of us to smell.

I wonder...
Despite the snark, which the you can't throw a rock at and not hit in the Shark Pool, I don't see how this doesn't qualify as relevant. EBF and I are leaguemates and have had conversations on prospects for years. Because of this, we're more likely to skip the pleasantries, but are hardly airing dirty laundry.

My apologies for anyone that doesn't find our conversation productive, but I don't think it falls outside of any rules, and is related to the topic.
I like both of your guys' insights but you're not really talking about prospects now and this isn't the thread to do it in anyway.

 
On the contrary, they seem to put a lot of stock in it. That's why there's such a clear link between those numbers and draft slot. If you put in the work to actually investigate this stuff, you'd probably reach a lot of the same conclusions. You probably haven't really looked at the numbers much. I might sound like a condescending jerk here, but I've put in the time and most of the people talking about this haven't. I don't take their opinions seriously when they don't really know what they're talking about.
No offense, but I'll put more time into researching your favorite metrics when I see them pay off in your rankings.

I know how this conversation goes--I find an example and the criteria is retroactively caveated. Rinse. Repeat. Then, years later, when I'm right (Lacy, Reed), it's "look how lucky these average prospects got!" When I'm wrong, it obviously because of the homework I didn't do on combine numbers.
I had Lacy ranked as the top RB in the draft last year.

You seem to get really defensive when people make honest and accurate criticisms of players that you like. It isn't personal. You might like Hill and Lacy. Doesn't change the fact that the concrete numbers don't support the idea that they were ever likely to be first round picks. If you based your opinion more on analysis and less based on your own subjective feelings, you would see that it's not a controversial statement.

I like Tre Mason. I also understand that as a 207 pound RB with 4.50 speed he was never ever going in the 1st round. If I didn't have a frame of reference with the historical combine data, maybe I would view him as another example of a guy who proves the devaluation of RBs. What I'm saying is that when you put in the work to build up the information on this topic, you come to see this lack of first round RBs as a natural result of the player pool.

It's hard to have a meaningful conversation about that with people who don't know the numbers and haven't put in the time to build the historical context.
You ranked Lacy as your top RB, and then went on to compare him to BJGE; suggesting he could put up plodding RB2 numbers in the right situation. You've been low on him every step of the way, with the exception of your ranking, which was hardly consistent with your expressed thoughts on him as a player. You put Lacy as the top back for the same reason that you moved Lache so far down: the NFL dictated it. And, as someone who invests a lot into draft position as a market--that is not meant to be an insult. If you truly liked him as much as your ranking suggested, you'd be thumping your chest for the foresight, rather than starting "Couldn't Toby Gerhart do the same?" threads.

But let's be honest: you've never liked Lacy and spent a lot of time bringing up his pro-day numbers to justify it. Despite there being plenty of reasons to question the value of those numbers, as Lacy was out of shape, jogging through drills, and couldn't even finish the mock combine.

Both of our feelings on the players are subjective, even if you rely more on combine numbers than I do. There is hardly a consensus in the NFL regarding the value of combine numbers as a whole, let alone each individual drill. The numbers aren't subjective, but what we take out of them very much is.

 
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You ranked Lacy as your top RB, and then went on to compare him to BJGE; suggesting he could put up plodding RB2 numbers in the right situation. You've been low on him every step of the way, with the exception of your ranking, which was hardly consistent with your expressed thoughts on him as a player. You put Lacy as the top back for the same reason that you moved Lache so far down: the NFL dictated it. And, as someone who invests a lot into draft position as a market--that is not meant to be an insult.

But let's be honest: you've never liked Lacy and spent a lot of time bringing up his pro-day numbers to justify it. Despite there being plenty of reasons to question the value of those numbers, as Lacy was out of shape, jogging through drills, and couldn't even finish the mock combine.
I never liked Lacy? Let's investigate that claim.

Lacy is no Richardson, but at this point I might take him over Ingram. He looks quite a bit bigger and will probably run faster in his workouts. I think his skills will translate pretty well to the NFL and I could see him being an effective power back. Would be a mild surprise to see him go in the first round, but he's certainly got the talent to justify a second rounder.
Lacy would be my clear #1 choice for rookie drafts right now simply because he's the only back in this class who looks like a safe bet to become a workhorse starter in the NFL.
1. RB Eddie Lacy - Not amazing, but good in every facet of the game. Put him in a starting role and he should be a top 10-15 FF back.
Lacy is good, but he's hardly a special prospect in his own right. He might not even be a first round pick when the dust settles. As of right now here's his overall ranking on some of the draft sites: CBS/NFL Draft Scout - 33rd Scout.com - 30th NFL.com (draft prospects sorted by grade) - 51st SI.com (Chris Burke) - 35th The consensus seems to have him as a late 1st-early 2nd rounder. That doesn't mean he won't end up being a good pro. With his frame and well-rounded skill set, I like his chances to be successful.
I think Lacy is the best back on the Packers and there's really no reason why he can't rush for 1200 yards next year. The downside is that he isn't a great weapon in the passing game and Green Bay will continue to be a pass-first team.
Not the worst list, but there are a few wacky picks.

If you're going to rank Lacy at #6, I don't think you can have Franklin at #10. Green Bay isn't some kind of rushing juggernaut. There aren't enough carries to go around for both of them. Whoever wins the job will likely have good value. Whoever loses will be pretty irrelevant. I favor Lacy in that battle and I rank him pretty highly among this rookie class for redraft outlook.
Benson was doing pretty well here last season before his injury. At this point Lacy is probably more talented than a 30 year old Benson, so we can probably expect even better from him. He's shaping up to be a nice value pick in redraft, where people are often gunshy about taking a chance on a rookie.
Hard for me to rank them.

In dynasty, I'm optimistic about Lacy, Bernard, and Michael.

In redraft, I like Lacy and Bernard.
I think you struggle with the distinction between "good" and "great." I have felt for 1.5 years that Lacy was a good prospect. I didn't and still don't think he's great. I did compare him to BJGE at times, but was optimistic about him overall. I actually went out of my way to get him early in my only redraft league last year. He was the top rookie on my RB board for most of the offseason/preseason last year, so it's funny now to hear that I "never liked him." Sometimes you can be dead on the money about a prospect's outlook and people will still find reasons to criticize your analysis.

 
14 Team PPR, 1 QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-2 TE, K, D

3.09 Paul Richardson

3.10 Josh Huff

3.11 Lache Seastrunk

4.10 Brandon Coleman

4.11 Jeff Janis

 
Can we keep this topic on the subject at hand which is about people's new fantasy toys. Intead of rehashing the same RB argument that was covered in other threads already. Thank You.

 
1.07 Hyde

Trade 2.8 and 2.9 and 3.7 for Jordan Matthews (drafted 1.10) and 5.1

I like it :shrug:

ETA: We have a sprinkling of FA veterans available in our draft based on last years cuts

 
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1 QB / 2 RB / 3 WR / TE / Flex (RB/WR/TE) --- 12 Team Standard PPR, 13 picks in 1st Rd.

1.12 - Tre Mason

2.01 - Kelvin Benjamin

2.08 - Allen Robinson

3.01 - Jace Amaro

 
I've had ONE dynasty draft of 2. This one was a 16 Team TE Premium PPR (.75-1.00-1.50, RB-WR-TE) non-IDP

9 Starters consist of: 1QB / 1-3RB / 2-4WR / 1-3 TE / 1PK / 1DEF (2FLEX)

1.07 - Odell Beckham Jr - WR - NYG: Wasn't expecting him to fall here so he wasn't really on my radar. I hesitate on his size but I couldn't pass up his value. Plus the NYGs seem to hit on WRs more than most teams, so I had to strongly consider that.

1.08 - Davante Adams - WR - GBP: I've been in love with him since February and really like his landing spot. He is a bit of a risk as well because of said landing spot but his college production was incredible and most of his metrics are elite.

1.15 - Cody Latimer - WR - DEN: Again, great value that fell so I had to take him. I needed RBs more in this league but there were still a few I was on the fence about. Love Latimer's upside especially if he gets 2 years with Manning.

2.01 - Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE - TBB: In a TE premium league, I had to take him here. I'm pretty luke warm on this TE class but this value was too good to pass up on.

2.06 - Tre Mason - RB - STL: And I finally got my RB and my personal #2. So to get my #2 RB in a class with no clear front-runner was a big WIN, imo. I'm pretty sure Mason can be an effective lead back in the NFL. In a class with no elite RBs, getting a guy with as good a chance as any to be relative with the 20th overall pick… I like that risk/reward ratio!
And my 2nd Dynasty league draft results, same scoring system as above:

1.04 - Odell Beckham Jr. - WR - NYG

1.06 - Jordan Matthews - WR - PHI

1.08 - Davante Adams - WR - GBP

1.11 - Allen Robinson - WR - JAC

1.12 - Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE - TBB

1.14 - Jace Amaro - TE - NYJ

I'm thrilled that I got my personal favorite top 4 WRs not named Sammy Watkins. I traded my 1.02 to move back in the draft and secure a bunch of mid-round picks. I really needed RB more than anything but the guys I wanted weren't available when I was willing to draft them. Back-to-back TE pick pissed off some league-mates but at that point I was drafting BPA. Coulda taken Jeremy Hill (he's still available) but I like the upside of Jace Amaro better than Hill. All in all, I nailed this draft per my own rankings etc. I couldn't be more happy with my final results and I still have the 2.14 coming up in the next day or so.

 
12 Team, Zealots, non-ppr, IDP

[SIZE=10.5pt]4.06 Smith, Telvin JAC LB [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]5.04 Huff, Josh PHI WR [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]5.06 White, James NEP RB [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]6.06 Brown, John ARI WR [/SIZE]

 
10 team Dyno .5 PPR te bonus of 1ppr. High idp scoring.

Major rb hungry league.

1.4 Hyde

1.7 mason

2.1 hill

2.3 Lee

2.6 Manziel

2.8 cj mosley

3.8 Seastrunk

4.8 asj

5.8 Allen robinson

Udfa telvin smith.

Feel great about this draft! I didn't really need any position as I have a pretty strong team in this one. I took either bpa my rankings or I went with a guy with a higher adp if I thought a guy would fall to me. Thought I'd get m Bryant in the 4th as he kept fallin so I passed on em in the third. Big mistake on my part but oh well as he did go early 4th.

 
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10 .5 PPR te bonus of 1ppr. High idp scoring.

Major rb hungry league.

1.4 Hyde

1.7 mason

2.1 hill

2.3 Lee

2.6 Manziel

2.8 cj mosley

3.8 Seastrunk

4.8 asj

5.8 Allen robinson

Udfa telvin smith.

Feel great about this draft! I didn't really need any position as I have a pretty strong team in this one. I took either bbaby my rankings or I went with a guy with a higher adp if I thought a guy would fall to me. Thought I'd get m Bryant in the 4th as he kept fallin so I passed on em in the third. Big mistake on my part but oh well as he did go early 4th.
ASJ at 4.08 in TE premium (or any format) and Allen Robinson at 5.08 is totally insane. It should not be possible.

 
12 team PPR w/ superflex

1.04- Johnny Manziel

1.09- Carlos Hyde

1.10- Kelvin Benjamin

4.10- James White

(traded Johnny Football during draft along w/ 3.10 for Demarco Murray)

12 team .5 PPR for RB, 1 for WR, 1.5 for TE

2.06 Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

3.08 Paul Richardson

4.01 Richard Rodgers

(traded 1.09 and 2.06 for Andre Ellington and 3.06)

(traded 2.12 and 3.06 for 2.06)

(traded 1.11, 1.12, future 2nd for Percy Harvin, 3.08, 4.01, future 1st)

 
10 .5 PPR te bonus of 1ppr. High idp scoring.

Major rb hungry league.

1.4 Hyde

1.7 mason

2.1 hill

2.3 Lee

2.6 Manziel

2.8 cj mosley

3.8 Seastrunk

4.8 asj

5.8 Allen robinson

Udfa telvin smith.

Feel great about this draft! I didn't really need any position as I have a pretty strong team in this one. I took either bbaby my rankings or I went with a guy with a higher adp if I thought a guy would fall to me. Thought I'd get m Bryant in the 4th as he kept fallin so I passed on em in the third. Big mistake on my part but oh well as he did go early 4th.
ASJ at 4.08 in TE premium (or any format) and Allen Robinson at 5.08 is totally insane. It should not be possible.
I agree! Nobody wanted robinson because of Lee I think. No idea what the guys were thinkin on asj. Dudes gonna be wide open a ton w evans n Jackson there. Felt like robbery to me! I'm def not complaining. I was really surprised to see lyerla go the pick before asj. Ebron went six fyi
 
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Just finished my first IDP draft for a team I took over in a 12 team PPR IDP. 3 slot 1 year rookie only taxi.

1.01 WR Watkins, Sammy BUF Traded TRich and Michael for 1.01

1.06 TE Ebron, Eric DET

2.06 RB West, Terrance CLE 8th RB off the board.

3.06 Traded for 2015 2nd

4.06 LB Smith, Telvin JAC

5.06 RB Marion Grice SDC

6.06 QB Tom Savage HOU

7.06 WR Huff, Josh PHI

8.06 S Bucannon, Deone ARZ

Planning on putting Grice, Savage and Huff on taxi for now. I think I did pretty good. RB's were flying off the board early and often.

 
Somebody should collect the names and number of posts and see who we all seem to be drafting. I'm sure there have to be a few Shark Pool favorites.
Working on this now actually, I'll edit this post when I'm done with the results.

EDIT: Here's the spreadsheet sorted by most picks... figured it'd be easiest viewed in a public google doc. If you notice any errors in team, position, spelling or counts let me know. I'll try to keep this updated as much as possible. I did not include any IDPs as there were only like 2 posts w/ IDP players in them. So I figured I'd separate them out.

Last Updated: Tuesday - 5/29/2014 - 3:21PM EST
Updated to this point

 
12 tm ppr/idp with 80 man active roster and 20 man taxi squad.

Here are the starting requirements:

Total Starters: 35 Number of Starting QBs: 1-2 Number of Starting RBs: 3-4 Number of Starting WR+TEs: 7-8 Number of Starting DTs: 3-4 Number of Starting DEs: 4-5 Number of Starting LBs: 7-8 Number of Starting CBs: 4-5 Number of Starting Ss: 4-5

1.03 Sankey, Bishop TEN RB

1.07 Lee, Marqise JAC WR

3.07 Moncrief, Donte IND WR

4.07 Barr, Anthony MIN LB

6.05 Taliaferro, Lorenzo BAL RB

6.07 Fiedorowicz, C.J. HOU TE

7.05 Street, Devin DAL WR

7.07 Abbrederis, Jared GBP WR

8.07 Pierre-Louis, Kevin SEA LB

9.07 Jones, Christian CHI LB

10.07 Webster, Larry DET DE

 
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3 drafts down, 8 more to go

12tm ppr

Mike Evans

Kelvin Benjamin

Terrance West

Charles Sims

Lorenzo Taliaferro

Marion Grice

AJ Jenkins (FA)

Tim Flanders

10 tm nonppr

Jordan Matthews

Kelvin Benjamin

Cody Latimer

Johnny Manziel

Paul Richardson

Adrien Robinson (FA)

12 tm ppr superflex idp

Teddy Bridgewater

Jeremy Hill

Jerick McKinnon

Lache Seastrunk

Marquess Wilson (FA)

Mikel Leshoure (FA)

Keenan Robinson (FA)

Aaron Murray

 
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12 Team PPR, TE premium, Superflex

1.02 Watkins

1.03 Evans

1.04 Ebron

1.06 Bridgewater

1.09 Hyde

2.02 Freeman

This was essentially the result of a complete rebuild

12 Team PPR TE Premium Superflex Draft #2

1.04 Bridgewater (now since traded for a 2015 1st and 2nd, Will be mid to early)

1.05 Evans

2.01 Hill

2.02 (during the Draft, I traded a mid-range 2015 first to acquire this pick) Bortles

So essentially, all I need is Bortles to outperform Teddy in the long run...

 
12 team PPR Dynasty

2.11 Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB

3.03 Moncrief, Donte IND WR

4.11 Brown, John ARI WR

5.11 Bibbs, Kapri DEN RB

6.03 Coleman, Brandon NOS WR

 

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