2015 Fantasy: Real vs. Fluke? (1 Viewer)

[Good Posting Judge]

Steve Pearce?

 

[MAC_32]

If it's real it can happen on someone else's team.

 

[Eephus]

Fluke. He benefitted from big jumps in BABIP and HR/FB% that probably aren't sustainable in a full-time role. He's helped a lot of teams this year including mine but some other 1B/OF type will be 2015 Pearce.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Devin Mesoraco

 

[MAC_32]

Devin Mesoraco

Post April Mesoraco is real. Although knowing he has hot streaks in him like that is good to know.

I'm hoping to use his ytd #'s to trade him in my dyno, but I'm keeping him for a $1 (plus inflation) in my salary cap auction.

 

[Eephus]

Even Mesoraco's 2nd Half (.800 OPS) is decent production for a catcher.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Yeah Mesoraco will definitely be on my "to consider" list.

 

[oso diablo]

Devin Mesoraco

real, but won't be available in keeper league, and will be overpriced in redraft leagues.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Charlie Blackmon

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Charlie Blackmon

He's not a viable fantasy player on the road. Plate discipline still isn't that great, despite having solid ratios in AAA, it's yet to translate. Improved over last year, and he obviously had a scorching April, but there's some not to like.

Guess it depends a bit on format. If you have daily transactions and have room to ferry him in and out, he might be useful. But I don't think I'd bid that much on a guy who I'm not going to be able to realistically use a lot of the time.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Devin Mesoraco

real, but won't be available in keeper league, and will be overpriced in redraft leagues.

Think I'd be OK spending $12-15 on him. Probably middle of the pack, and not enough to land him.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

A guy I really like to make a Kluber-esque leap is Matt Shoemaker. Petit as well, I don't know why the Giants have been screwing around with this guy so long and wasting their time/money on Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, etc.

 

[MAC_32]

Charlie Blackmon

He's not a viable fantasy player on the road. Plate discipline still isn't that great, despite having solid ratios in AAA, it's yet to translate. Improved over last year, and he obviously had a scorching April, but there's some not to like.

Guess it depends a bit on format. If you have daily transactions and have room to ferry him in and out, he might be useful. But I don't think I'd bid that much on a guy who I'm not going to be able to realistically use a lot of the time.

Yep. If he gets dropped in either of my deep daily leagues I'll target him, but I won't even rank him in my weekly H2H's.

Cuddy is a free agent, so there could be less competition for AB's in case he hits a lull though.

 

[MAC_32]

A guy I really like to make a Kluber-esque leap is Matt Shoemaker. Petit as well, I don't know why the Giants have been screwing around with this guy so long and wasting their time/money on Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, etc.

Can't keep either of them in my salary cap auction, but I'm trying to find a way to keep both of them in my dynasty. Curious what their prices will be like draft day next year, probably depends how October goes.

 

[pantagrapher]

J. D. Martinez

He saved my team, but I rarely see Tigers games, so I really have no idea what kind of hitter he is.

 

[MAC_32]

J. D. Martinez

He saved my team, but I rarely see Tigers games, so I really have no idea what kind of hitter he is.

I kept waiting for the bottom to fall out and it kept not happening. He has the profile of a guy you want to stay far, far away from when he is slumping, but when he is on you want to be there, when he makes contact it is usually very hard. The K:BB and HR:FB rates will scare me away in drafts next year, but if he starts off slow and his owner drops him I'll be waiting.

 

[Eephus]

A guy I really like to make a Kluber-esque leap is Matt Shoemaker. Petit as well, I don't know why the Giants have been screwing around with this guy so long and wasting their time/money on Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, etc.

Brian Sabean is a genius

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Josh Harrison

 

[MAC_32]

Josh Harrison

Can't say I watched much of him this year, but the stats don't add up. Before this year he never had > 5 HR's in a season, at any level. Just analyzing the numbers, a line can be drawn to explain the uptick in numbers - big spike in LD --> big spike in BABIP. Increase in swgstrk could explain a more aggressive swing leading to harder hit balls when he does make contact. I just have a hard time getting over his numbers in every other season leading up to now, I need to see him do it again. The speed may be real (20 SB is probably the absolute ceiling though), but this looks like a 270-290 bat with 5-10 bombs. Since he doesn't walk much if he gets into a slump he'll probably find himself in the 8 hole where it is harder to run too.

I can't imagine targeting him next March, but we'll see what prices are like. Curious to read if his approach changed too.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Even when JD was slumping, he hit for power.

He'll be an every day player next year and the power is undeniable. He might not hit .315 but something in the .280 range with 25 homers would be my early projection. He always hit in the minors and had some nice power seasons through AA. I was surprised the Astros gave up on him, even more surprised he's had the season he has. He probably won't repeat this next year but power is so hard to find these days, he's certainly going to be worth a long look on draft day.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

A guy I really like to make a Kluber-esque leap is Matt Shoemaker. Petit as well, I don't know why the Giants have been screwing around with this guy so long and wasting their time/money on Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, etc.

Brian Sabean is a genius

He literally Boggles my mind.

 

[pantagrapher]

Even when JD was slumping, he hit for power.

He'll be an every day player next year and the power is undeniable. He might not hit .315 but something in the .280 range with 25 homers would be my early projection. He always hit in the minors and had some nice power seasons through AA. I was surprised the Astros gave up on him, even more surprised he's had the season he has. He probably won't repeat this next year but power is so hard to find these days, he's certainly going to be worth a long look on draft day.

Looking ahead, he's a bubble keeper for me—I have him neck-and-neck with Starling Marte.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Even when JD was slumping, he hit for power.

He'll be an every day player next year and the power is undeniable. He might not hit .315 but something in the .280 range with 25 homers would be my early projection. He always hit in the minors and had some nice power seasons through AA. I was surprised the Astros gave up on him, even more surprised he's had the season he has. He probably won't repeat this next year but power is so hard to find these days, he's certainly going to be worth a long look on draft day.

Good article on Martinez. Flipside of this is that his BABIP can't sustain at .389.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-how-good-has-j-d-martinez-become/

 

[RnR]

Even when JD was slumping, he hit for power.

He'll be an every day player next year and the power is undeniable. He might not hit .315 but something in the .280 range with 25 homers would be my early projection. He always hit in the minors and had some nice power seasons through AA. I was surprised the Astros gave up on him, even more surprised he's had the season he has. He probably won't repeat this next year but power is so hard to find these days, he's certainly going to be worth a long look on draft day.

Looking ahead, he's a bubble keeper for me—I have him neck-and-neck with Starling Marte.

I may be late on this, but keep Starling Marte.

 

[pantagrapher]

Even when JD was slumping, he hit for power.

He'll be an every day player next year and the power is undeniable. He might not hit .315 but something in the .280 range with 25 homers would be my early projection. He always hit in the minors and had some nice power seasons through AA. I was surprised the Astros gave up on him, even more surprised he's had the season he has. He probably won't repeat this next year but power is so hard to find these days, he's certainly going to be worth a long look on draft day.

Looking ahead, he's a bubble keeper for me—I have him neck-and-neck with Starling Marte.

I may be late on this, but keep Starling Marte.

I love Marte, but he gets plunked a lot, which has lead to him missing about 25 games each of the past two seasons. And HR/RBI bats are in short supply these days. Not saying my mind is made up either way—hell, could end up keeping both.