My first-ever Anarchy draft is in the books. Critiques welcomed:
1.04 - Julio Jones, ATL (WR3). Would have taken him even at 1.02. A huge talent, in his prime, who's the Vegas favorite to lead the league in receiving yards. If the Falcons back-door their way to an NFC South title he could feasibly be the #1 non-QB.
2.13 - Delanie Walker, TEN (TE6). A "grit my teeth" pick as I expect some target regression for him ... doubly so as a Titan in a playoff league ... triply so as Mike Evans was still on the board, and I
love Evans this year. But this format seems similar to this year's SSL3 (2PPR for TEs with 1 TE + a flex), so my default strategy was the same (TEs early and often). Last year's 338 points probably a pipe dream, but should be a safe bet for 250+.
3.04 / 4.13 - Brandin Cooks, NO (WR16) / Julian Edelman, NE (WR26). Target monsters, check. #1 options on pass-first offenses, check. Future HOF QBs, check. Cooks gets a bump from the Saints' plane-crash defense, Edelman from the prospect of multiple playoff games. Barring injury, should generate 450 points between them.
5.04 - Antonio Gates, SD (TE13). There's a big enough drop between Gates and the next tier of TEs that I don't mind sewing up my starters at the quarter-pole. Should again be in the mix for 80 catches and 10 TDs opposite Keenan, especially after Stevie's injury. There's a real chance my first five picks could net 800 targets between them, which I'll take every day of the week in this type of format.
Interlude: At this point in the draft my roster likely has the highest floor of any in the league. Which would be great news in the survivor format, where the goal is "don't finish last", but probably not good enough for a league where the goal is "put up more points than 15 other teams". So around this point I switched tacks by leaning towards boom-or-bust options ahead of safe, steady types.
6.13 - Allen Hurns, JAX (WR40). Passed on a handful of borderline QB1/2s like Dalton and Stafford in order to shoot for upside with someone like Cousins or Taylor. Instead I went with a pure value play with Hurns - at #93 overall, about a round lower than in other Anarchy leagues. I'm expecting some TD regression but he should still be a good bet for 1,000 yards, as I expect the JAX pass game regression to come out of AR15's numbers before Hurns'.
7.04 - Washington, TMQB (Cousins - QB15). Shooting for the moon here with Cousins - to be honest, a half-season of lights-out performances against bad defenses carries echoes of Nick Foles to me, but in this format even a small chance at top-5 stats probably justifies a QB15 price tag.
8.13 - Chris Ivory, JAX (RB36). Now that I've finally gotten around to considering RBs, the pickins are as slim as I expected them to be. In this format, the true 'boom or bust' RBs are actually two-down GL backs, and Ivory fits the mold. I wouldn't want to count on him in a survivor, but here if he can get into the end zone 8-10 times I don't much care when they happen.
9.04 - Seahawks, DST (DST3). I had a couple guys in mind I wouldn't hate to reach for here, but I gambled I'd be able to catch at least one of them on the way back in the 10th. Instead I went with the D/ST with the greatest track record of elite performance in the NFL. A good bet for 100+ VBD, as much or more than I can get anywhere else at this point.
10.13 - Tevin Coleman, ATL (RB45). Dan Quinn is talking up a timeshare, which seems bizarre when the other guy was last year's fantasy RB1. But Coleman's got enough talent that I think he carves out a significant role regardless. Thought about Blount here, but chose to roll with the lower floor and higher ceiling.
11.04 - Ladarius Green, PIT (TE32). Welp, I said I was going boom-or-bust, right? Top-10 potential if he plays, and last season TE10 scored 243 points - so I'll take a 50/50 shot at that (or maybe that pace for a half-season) over any RB/WR left on the board here. Could be the difference between finishing 1st and 4th ... or between 12th and last.
12.13 - Chris Boswell, PIT (PK10). Solid kicker on a good offense with playoff potential - don't want to get caught out here as can happen once we get into the 20s.
13.04 - Titans, TMQB (Mariota - QB23). IMO, this spot is ridiculous value for Mariota as a rising second-year passer with lots of new offensive weapons on a bad team that will have to throw a bunch. A couple of new backs with pass-catching chops should offer additional point potential via dump-off and swing-pass TDs. Didn't really consider anyone else at this spot - and knowing this kind of value is available at QB late just reinforces my "wait forever on QB" mindset for 2016, even in leagues like this one where every QB is rostered.
14.13 - Chris Thompson, WAS (RB61). Catches a lot of balls, which doesn't matter overly much in 0PPR. Second on the depth chart behind an unproven 23-year-old with ball-control issues, which might. Don't think he has the size or stamina to be an every-down back, but it's at least a little telling that the Skins haven't been big fishermen in the FA RB pool. At least some potential for playoff points here as well.
15.04 - Chris Hogan, NE (WR74). Cornering the market on dudes named Chris - so there's that. Anyway, if there are two things we've learned about Belichick, it's that he'll make the playoffs, and that his RB and WR depth charts exist in name only. Plenty of upside on his own merits, but might also offer some handcuff value to my 4th-round pick should he again miss time.
16.13 - Roberto Aguayo, TB (PK26). Y'all are funny. I got this kid at PK26 in PDSL, then watched him go 8th off the board in my SSL, and then fall all the way back to PK26 again here. What's changed, really? Barring an Ankiel-like meltdown he isn't getting cut this year, and he should be on a solid but not spectacular offense. Middle-of-the-pack performance with top-10 upside.
17.04 - Darren MacFadden, DAL (RB66). Just because I apparently felt like cornering the market on talented backs with recurring injury issues. And because someone has to win the NFC East.
18.13 - Browns, DST (DST31). Because past the top 5, defenses are kinda random year-to-year.
Overall my mix of floor and ceiling should keep me in the fat part of the bell curve at worst. Obvious weak spots are my RBs and the relative sparsity of names with deep playoff potential. In exchange I've got a really high floor at WR and TE, a QB combo with risk but a ton of upside, and a flex who can carry this team to a title on his back if he actually comes out of that tunnel and plays a full 16 or close to it. Not sure I have the horses at QB or RB to ultimately take this puppy home, but not a squad I'm embarrassed about either.
Thanks to
@Anarchy99 for cutting me in on the fun this year and best of luck to all.
I haven't checked all the teams, but both you and DC have more players in the play-offs than I do. Don't think it is a done deal at all.
