2016 Rookie Top 40 across the internet (1 Viewer)

[miqws]

Below is data I have collected for 2016 rookies from 48 sources, mostly PPR based.  I have been using it to gauge tiers.  Also included are NFL.com grades after the draft, and ages.   I put a space at large differences in the average to designate tiers. 


 



 Player


 


 


 


 


 


 



 Pos


 NFL Team


 


NFL grade 2016-05-15



Age 2016-07-12


Count


Average (excluding min max)


1


 Elliot, Ezekiel


RB


Dal


7.09


21.0


48


1.00


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


2


 Treadwell, Laquon


WR


Min


6.25


21.1


48


2.78


3


 Coleman, Corey


WR


Cle


6.09


22.0


48


3.13


4


 Doctson, Josh


WR


Was


6.12


23.6


48


4.00


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


5


 Shepard, Sterling


WR


NYG


5.91


22.4


47


6.02


6


 Henry, Derrick


RB


Ten


6.15


22.0


48


6.50


7


 Thomas, Michael


WR


NO


5.81


22.4


48


7.02


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


8


 Dixon, Kenneth


RB


Bal


5.70


22.5


48


9.04


9


 Boyd, Tyler


WR


Cin


5.90


22.7


48


10.85


10


 Fuller, Will


WR


Hou


6.26


22.2


47


11.62


11


 Booker, Devontae


RB


Den


5.70


24.1


47


12.53


12


 Carroo, Leonte


WR


Mia


5.49


22.5


47


13.09


13


 Prosise, CJ


RB


Sea


5.57


22.1


48


13.52


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


14


 Howard, Jordan


RB


Chi


6.10


21.7


45


16.86


15


 Perkins, Paul


RB


NYG


5.60


21.7


46


17.30


16


 Henry, Hunter


TE


SD


6.20


21.6


45


17.74


17


 Goff, Jared


QB


LA


6.51


21.7


45


17.91


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


18


 Drake, Kenyan


RB


Mia


5.52


22.8


43


19.71


19


 Mitchell, Malcolm


WR


NE


5.55


23.0


43


19.85


20


 Wentz, Carson


QB


Phi


6.53


23.5


44


20.64


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


21


 Miller, Braxton


WR


Hou


5.68


23.6


44


22.07


22


 Lynch, Paxton


QB


Den


6.17


22.4


44


22.57


23


 Washington, DeAndre


RB


Oak


5.17


23.4


40


22.87


24


 Cooper, Pharoh


WR


LA


5.67


21.3


42


23.18


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


25


 Hooper, Austin


TE


Atl


5.75


21.7


41


25.08


26


 Thomas, Mike


WR


LA


5.23


21.9


32


26.57


27


 Ervin, Tyler


RB


Hou


5.38


22.8


39


26.81


28


 Smallwood, Wendell


RB


Phi


5.12


22.5


33


27.29


29


 Marshall, Keith


RB


Was


5.26


22.4


38


27.31


30


 Williams, Jonathan


RB


Buf


5.49


22.4


44


27.62


31


 Collins, Alex


RB


Sea


5.53


21.9


40


27.79


32


 Sharpe, Tajae


WR


Ten


5.42


21.6


36


28.74


33


 Higgins, Rashard


WR


Cle


5.48


21.8


39


29.19


34


 Higbee, Tyler


TE


LA


5.64


 


34


29.94


35


 Payton, Jordan


WR


Cle


5.15


22.9


25


30.83


36


 Robinson, Demarcus


WR


KC


5.45


24.7


19


31.94


37


 Moore, Chris


WR


Bal


5.23


23.1


28


32.12


38


 Peake, Charone


WR


NYJ


5.84


23.7


26


33.08


39


 Ferguson, Josh


RB


Ind


5.39


23.1


13


33.36


40


 Garrett, Keyarris


WR


Car


5.36


23.8


24


33.55


41


 Louis, Ricardo


WR


Cle


5.46


22.3


29


34.15


42


 Lasco, Daniel


RB


NO


5.18


23.8


21


35.37


43


 Jones, Cardale


QB


Buf


5.44


23.8


21


35.47

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice topic miqws.

The NFL draft grade is Lance Zeirleins?

I have some historical data of his draft grades I complied on another computer. Could add that here for comparing 2016 to other draft classes. I will look for that when I get the chance.

 

[miqws]

Biabreakable I got the NFL grade numbers from nfl.com/combine, not sure who does the grades.  I have predraft data as well, the grades did change a bit over time.  Interesting players by NFL grade are Jordan Howard and Charone Peake.

 

[tombonneau]

Pharoh Cooper, on top of having an All Time Name, seems like a guy in good situation for dynasty. I'd hazard Austin is gone when is contract is up (this season?) and a rookie WR coming on board with rookie top QB pick could make for good chemistry. They obviously will be a run-first team with Gurley but he could be a steady WR2 type.

 

[Noah Davis]

I like Hooper at that spot.

 

[Biabreakable]

Biabreakable I got the NFL grade numbers from nfl.com/combine, not sure who does the grades.  I have predraft data as well, the grades did change a bit over time.  Interesting players by NFL grade are Jordan Howard and Charone Peake.

I am pretty sure those are Lance Zierleins ratings.

Here is a combined list of rookie players 2014 to 2016 (I only had the top 40 from your list).

7.3    Watkins, Sammy    WR
7.1    Cooper, Amari    WR
7.09     Elliot, Ezekiel    RB
6.7    White, Kevin    WR
6.53     Wentz, Carson    QB
6.51     Goff, Jared    QB
6.5    Winston, Jameis    QB
6.4    Evans, Mike    WR
6.3    Parker, DeVante    WR
6.26     Fuller, Will    WR
6.25     Treadwell, Laquon    WR
6.2    Mariota, Marcus    QB
6.2    Bortles, Blake    QB
6.2    Gurley, Todd    RB
6.2    Lee, Marqise    WR
6.2    Ebron, Eric    TE
6.2     Henry, Hunter    TE
6.17     Lynch, Paxton    QB
6.15     Henry, Derrick    RB
6.12     Doctson, Josh    WR
6.1    Hundley, Brett    QB
6.1    Petty, Bryce    QB
6.1    Grayson, Garrett    QB
6.1    Bridgewater, Teddy    QB
6.1    Carr, Derek    QB
6.1    Manziel, Johnny    QB
6.1    Gordon, Melvin    RB
6.1    Hyde, Carlos    RB
6.1    Beckham, Odell    WR
6.1    Benjamin, Kelvin    WR
6.1     Howard, Jordan    RB
6.09     Coleman, Corey    WR
6    Coleman, Tevin    RB
5.91     Shepard, Sterling    WR
5.9    Perriman, Breshad    WR
5.9    Strong, Jaelen    WR
5.9    Cooks, Brandin    WR
5.9    Moncrief, Donte    WR
5.9     Boyd, Tyler    WR
5.84     Peake, Charone    WR
5.81     Thomas, Michael    WR
5.8    Mannion, Sean    QB
5.8    Garoppolo, Jimmy    QB
5.8    Ajayi, Jay    RB
5.8    Johnson, Duke    RB
5.8    Mason, Tre    RB
5.8    Dorsett, Phillip    WR
5.75     Hooper, Austin    TE
5.7    McCarron, AJ    QB
5.7    Abdullah, Ameer    RB
5.7    Green-Beckham, Dorial    WR
5.7    Smith, Devin    WR
5.7    Adams, Davante    WR
5.7    Matthews, Jordan    WR
5.7    Williams, Maxx    TE
5.7     Dixon, Kenneth    RB
5.7     Booker, Devontae    RB
5.68     Miller, Braxton    WR
5.67     Cooper, Pharoh    WR
5.64     Higbee, Tyler    TE
5.6    Yeldon, T.J.    RB
5.6    Sankey, Bishop    RB
5.6    Williams, Andre    RB
5.6    Coates, Sammie    WR
5.6    Robinson, Allen    WR
5.6    Landry, Jarvis    WR
5.6    Niklas, Troy    TE
5.6     Perkins, Paul    RB
5.57     Prosise, CJ    RB
5.55     Mitchell, Malcolm    WR
5.53     Collins, Alex    RB
5.52     Drake, Kenyan    RB
5.5    Hill, Jeremy    RB
5.5    Archer, Dri    RB
5.5    Lockett, Tyler    WR
5.5    Greene, Rashad    WR
5.5    Agholor, Nelson    WR
5.5    Diggs, Stefon    WR
5.5    Walford, Clive    TE
5.5    Funchess, Devin    TE
5.5    Amaro, Jace    TE
5.49     Carroo, Leonte    WR
5.49     Williams, Jonathan    RB
5.48     Higgins, Rashard    WR
5.46     Louis, Ricardo    WR
5.45     Robinson, Demarcus    WR
5.44     Jones, Cardale    QB
5.42     Sharpe, Tajae    WR
5.4    Sims, Blake    QB
5.4    Halliday, Connor    QB
5.4    Thomas, Logan    QB
5.4    Johnson, David    RB
5.4    Davis, Mike    RB
5.4    Cobb, David    RB
5.4    Williams, Karlos    RB
5.4    Rawls, Thomas    RB
5.4    Artis-Payne, Cameron    RB
5.4    Freeman, Devonta    RB
5.4    Carey, Ka'Deem    RB
5.4    McKinnon, Jerick    RB
5.4    Montgomery, Ty    WR
5.4    Conley, Chris    WR
5.4    Mayle, Vince    WR
5.4    Waller, Darren    WR
5.4    Goodley, Antwan    WR
5.4    McBride, Tre    WR
5.4    Evans, Shaq    WR
5.4    Anderson, Rory 'Busta'    TE
5.4    Seferian-Jenkins, Austin    TE
5.4    Fiedorowicz, C.J.    TE
5.39     Ferguson, Josh    RB
5.38     Ervin, Tyler    RB
5.36     Garrett, Keyarris    WR
5.3    Heinicke, Taylor    QB
5.3    Bennett, Bryan    QB
5.3    Carden, Shane    QB
5.3    Mettenberger, Zach    QB
5.3    Allen, Javorius    RB
5.3    Jones, Matt    RB
5.3    Langford, Jeremy    RB
5.3    Zenner, Zach    RB
5.3    West, Terrance    RB
5.3    Thomas, De'Anthony    RB
5.3    Sims, Charles    RB
5.3    Bell, Kenny    WR
5.3    Davis, Titus    WR
5.3    Lippett, Tony    WR
5.3    Anderson, Dres    WR
5.3    Crowder, Jamison    WR
5.3    Hardy, Justin    WR
5.3    Lewis, Dezmin    WR
5.3    Ellington, Bruce    WR
5.3    Norwood, Kevin    WR
5.3    Abbrederis, Jared    WR
5.3    Janis, Jeff    WR
5.3    Jones, T.J.    WR
5.3    Bryant, Martavis    WR
5.3    O'Leary, Nick    TE
5.3    Heuerman, Jeff    TE
5.3    Kroft, Tyler    TE
5.3    Koyack, Ben    TE
5.3    Telfer, Randall    TE
5.3    Lyerla, Colt    TE
5.26     Marshall, Keith    RB
5.23     Thomas, Mike    WR
5.23     Moore, Chris    WR
5.2    Mason, Hutson    QB
5.2    Bridge, Brandon    QB
5.2    Fajardo, Cody    QB
5.2    Boone, Anthony    QB
5.2    Lovelocke, Jerry    QB
5.2    Boyd, Tajh    QB
5.2    Savage, Tom    QB
5.2    Morris, Stephen    QB
5.2    Mathews, Jeff    QB
5.2    Williams, Trey    RB
5.2    Agnew, Malcolm    RB
5.2    Varga, Tyler    FB
5.2    Johnson, Storm    RB
5.2    Seastrunk, Lache    RB
5.2    Taliaferro, Lorenzo    RB
5.2    Blue, Alfred    RB
5.2    Gaffney, Tyler    RB
5.2    Andrews, Antonio    RB
5.2    Perkins, LaDarius    RB
5.2    Fluellen, David    RB
5.2    Baker, James    RB
5.2    Harper, Josh    WR
5.2    Alford, Mario    WR
5.2    Smelter, DeAndre    WR
5.2    Richardson, Paul    WR
5.2    Latimer, Cody    WR
5.2    Street, Devin    WR
5.2    Huff, Josh    WR
5.2    Saunders, Jalen    WR
5.2    Gallon, Jeremy    WR
5.2    Pruitt, MyCole    TE
5.2    James, Jesse    TE
5.2    Bell, Blake    TE
5.2    Rodgers, Richard    TE
5.2    Leonard, A.C.    TE
5.2    Denham, Anthony    TE
5.2    Jensen, Marcel    TE
5.2    Burton, Trey    TE
5.18     Lasco, Daniel    RB
5.17     Washington, DeAndre    RB
5.15     Payton, Jordan    WR
5.12     Smallwood, Wendell    RB

It looks like he changed his rating system somewhat because ratings go to two decimal places now. I had some earlier ratings as well, but he changed his rating method too much to form a combined list from earlier draft classes.

31 of the top 100 are from 2016. So according to these ratings the 2016 draft class is pretty much even with 2014 and 2015. 

I don't think 2016 was as good as the previous two seasons, so I was a little surprised how well they placed in the top 100. Lances ratings may be tied to expected draft position in some way that makes these ratings more evenly distributed. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Pharoh Cooper, on top of having an All Time Name, seems like a guy in good situation for dynasty. I'd hazard Austin is gone when is contract is up (this season?) and a rookie WR coming on board with rookie top QB pick could make for good chemistry. They obviously will be a run-first team with Gurley but he could be a steady WR2 type.

I see Cooper as a direct replacement for Stedman Bailey but I don;t like him as much as I did Bailey.

I am pretty sure Austin is going to be a focal point of this team as long as Fisher is the HC. They have built their offense around him is a lot of ways that you don't see many teams doing.

If Cooper can block? He will get to play.

I think Mike Thomas is a better player than Cooper so as the 4th or 5th WR on the team I don't see Cooper doing much.

 

[Biabreakable]

This article takes a slightly different approach looking at start up ADP for players in their rookie seasons.

Here are the top 5


2012


Trent Richardson


RB


3.08


32


2015


Melvin Gordon


RB


3.11


35


2012


Doug Martin


RB


3.12


36


2015


Todd Gurley


RB


4.09


45


2013


Eddie Lacy


RB


4.11


47

 

[Arodin]

This article takes a slightly different approach looking at start up ADP for players in their rookie seasons.

Here are the top 5


2012


Trent Richardson


RB


3.08


32


2015


Melvin Gordon


RB


3.11


35


2012


Doug Martin


RB


3.12


36


2015


Todd Gurley


RB


4.09


45


2013


Eddie Lacy


RB


4.11


47

By that metric, drafting a rookie RB in round 1 is unprecedented.  Looks like they only went back 5 years though.  Anyone no how far back we'd have to go to find such a thing?  Has it ever happened?

 

[Biabreakable]

I know back in the 90s rookie RB were 1st round picks almost every year. Not sure when that changed.

Peterson was probably the last rookie RB drafted round 1 in redraft. Not sure if Reggie Bush was. LT was I know.

Prior to LT is was fairly common for highly regarded rookie RB to be drafted in the 1st round. Not sure how much further we have to go back than LT for that to be every year, but it was pretty much every year for about a decade or so, right or wrong.