2017 1st Round in FF (2 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mike Evans should be on every list. Kinda glad he's not - gives me hope if I land a late pick. 

 

[Pwingles]

I didn't really think so either.  Goff looked like a bust right out of the gate...the WRs were uninspiring and he looked to be facing 8 in the box all year

Goff doesnt need to be Tom Brady to turn around and hand the ball to someone. Their o line sucks. Not sure how you thinking Goff being a bust would change Gurleys pre season rankings for anyone. He did what he did last year with what seemed like a worse O line and nobody at qb. I just dont see how anyone before the season could form this opinion from using a reasonable line of thinking.

Not at all.  I said it in various threads here, and he was on my AVOID list in every money league I did.  10 leagues and he is not on any of them.  He had bust written all over him.  

Im not saying you didnt say or think those things, Im saying its absurd that you did, given the information we had and the things he did prior. Unless thats what you do here, just spit contrarian hot takes and hope to hit on one?

 

[kneeshooter]

No love for Carlos Hyde? 

Over 1,000 yds and 8 TDs through 11 games on a pretty awful SF offense. RB9 on a PPG average in my PPR League. I think he belongs in the RB discussion after the top 3.

 

[fightingillini]

No love for Carlos Hyde? 

Over 1,000 yds and 8 TDs through 11 games on a pretty awful SF offense. RB9 on a PPG average in my PPR League. I think he belongs in the RB discussion after the top 3.

Three problems with Hyde

1) good defenses shut him down consistently

2) gets dinged up a lot

3) doesn't catch a ton of passes.....a lot will depend on who is QB for SF next year.

Still will likely be a 2nd round pick next year.  

 

[kneeshooter]

Three problems with Hyde

1) good defenses shut him down consistently

2) gets dinged up a lot

3) doesn't catch a ton of passes.....a lot will depend on who is QB for SF next year.

Still will likely be a 2nd round pick next year.  

I don't think #1 is valid - Hyde had productive outings vs DAL, NE, SEA this year, who are all Top 12 defenses. And while 2+3 may be applicable I don't think his questions marks are drastically higher than the others in this tier. While I agree he is likely a 2nd rounder, if he continues to finish this year strong (and SF makes the right offseason moves) I might consider him in the end of the 1st in larger leagues.

 

[Ack88]

Originally had S. Ware in my first two rounds. Think, if the draft was tomorrow, he would be outside of the top 24.

 

[MattFancy]

Originally had S. Ware in my first two rounds. Think, if the draft was tomorrow, he would be outside of the top 24.

Agreed. I was really looking forward to him being one of my keepers in one league (we get to keep to at 2 rounds higher than their original pick), but now I don't know if he's worth holding onto. He looked so good the first few weeks, but has really been pretty mediocre since.

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

PPR:

10. Amari Cooper

Not seeing this happening.

 

[BlueDredSo]

It used to be that you had to be aware of time shares in RBBC, but now you have to pay attention to how that RBBC is split. 

In some cases, you have really good receiving RBs that don't get receptions anymore because their back-up comes in on passing downs and 2 minute drives. You can make a case that Booker, Ware, and Forte are better receivers than Bibbs, West, and Powell, yet they get almost no action on passing downs.  That kills their PPR value. I rather have these RBs share series.

People that put Ware that high next year haven't been paying attention to this year.

I'll take a stab at the first round of what I think it will be (PPR):

1. David Johnson - Stud both running and receiving. , No pre-season concerns about a timeshare. Focus of the offense.

2. EE - I think we see a shift to getting a premiere RB again next season. Lots of good receivers available.

3 Antonio Brown - Drops to third due to a shift back to RB.

4. L. Bell - Without the injury and drug suspension history would be in the to 2 or 3. Antonio is a safer pick at 3.

5. Evans - Ascending star gets a slight edge over volatile OBJ.

6 OBJ - Character maturity concerns add an element of risk to make him lower than Evans.

7. Julio Jones- A stud, but a stud with injury concerns plus Ryan is more open to spreading the ball around now that he has more options.

8. AJ Green - The offense should go through him. Less risk than others below.

9. Murray - Great season, but there will be concerns that his back-up eats into his role.

10. Ajayi - The hype will be in full swing. No depth and healthy oline will fuel that hype.

11. Gordon - There will be some Woodhead concerns that will make some people people it's a risky pick.

12. Howard - More off-season hype as the offense will roll through him.

Early second round just missing the first.  Dez Bryant.(should be healthy) Gurley (people will be turned off by this year and scared the offense won't improve much), McCoy's injury history scares off some people. AP will land somewhere in the second.

McCoy should be ahead of every RB besides Johnson, EE & Bell. They have no choice but to keep pounding the ball and are great at it, so why change? Guy has been a stud this year - 1st player in NFL history to have 4 games of 100+ yds & 2 TDs rushing in less than 20 carries. I trust his situation and talent WAY more than Murray, Ajayi, Gordon or Howard.

 

[BlueDredSo]

Came back from an injury this year and looked to be a top 5 WR in a high powered offense.

Typically the better RB is fantasy relevant, and Prosise is that.

Yeah, more fantasy relevant. You're saying he's 1st round relevant AND will be sharing carries. Seattle's RBs have almost always been exclusive this year because of injuries, they've mostly featured 1 guy. How many weeks this year has that guy (I realize it was rarely Prosise) been a top 10 RB? Once or twice? Rawls ran all over Carolina and Michael had 1 or 2 good games. Sorry, not seeing this.

 

[Run It Up]

I dont think he will be sharing anything. He will play the main role and whoever spells him will get whats left.

Prosise is a dynamic back capable of playing every down and actually adds layers to the offense.

 

[Ack88]

Does anyone think that Ryan's firing has the potential to drop McCoy a bit?

 

[icehouse]

I'm back to thinking that if you can't land part of what i  would call the top 5 (elliott, Johnson, Julio, Evans, Bell) I go top qb.  In two leagues I am riding rodgers and brees with a bunch of waiver wire pickups into first place.  You just can't replace a guy like brees who put up 40pts for me last week.  I traded Julio Jones on that team 3 weeks ago for picks and have started Tyrell Williams in his place and have won 3 in a row.  

That can work, depending on your league scoring.  I've had Rodgers the last two years in one league and have finished 3rd both times (quite close to winning but injuries killed me).  I plan on keeping him again even though he will cost a 2nd rounder.  With a stud QB you know what you are getting weekly, assuming they can stay healthy.

 

[BigTex]

I'm targeting Hopkins as a buy low. Looks like most are down on him and after the NFL draft I plan to ship a few draft fantasy picks to try and land him.

Tex

 

[DropKick]

Good thoughts.  Are you saying this is what will happen or what should?  

If the former, I think it would surprise me to see gurley and Miller actually fall out.

i would probably take out gronk with this latest injury and I think that people will probably cool on Jeffrey.

Jeffrey could be somewhere else which might raise/lower expectations.

Yes, good list although Ware's inclusion surprised me.  I think he was the bell-cow this year.  OK; not great and the lack of use as a receiver (plus the slow finish) probably drops him out of the first two rounds.  I'd replace him with Howard.

 

[DropKick]

I'm targeting Hopkins as a buy low. Looks like most are down on him and after the NFL draft I plan to ship a few draft fantasy picks to try and land him.

Tex

Agreed.  Maybe Allen Robinson is another under-performing WR that might bounce back with better QB play.

 

[DropKick]

Does anyone think that Ryan's firing has the potential to drop McCoy a bit?

Besides Ryan himself? No.

 

[DropKick]

I dont think he will be sharing anything. He will play the main role and whoever spells him will get whats left.

Prosise is a dynamic back capable of playing every down and actually adds layers to the offense.

Agree that he could be a dynamic play maker.  Looks a little slender to me and it didn't take long to get banged up. 

I wouldn't discount Rawls completely yet.  Wasn't healthy to start the season (bad ankle injury late last season) and never really got going.  Lots of criticism of the OL too...

I think we'll see both guys next year, which will lessen each of their fantasy values.

 

[FF Ninja]

Came back from an injury this year and looked to be a top 5 WR in a high powered offense.

If healthy, Allen would've had a ridiculous year and definitely be in the 1st round next year, but he got hurt immediately and his ADP will get dinged for that. No way he gets close to a 1st round ADP. Thus, I think he'll be a great value pick next year.

 

[Arodin]

If healthy, Allen would've had a ridiculous year and definitely be in the 1st round next year, but he got hurt immediately and his ADP will get dinged for that. No way he gets close to a 1st round ADP. Thus, I think he'll be a great value pick next year.

He'll get dinged for two straight years of starting a season on fire and being knocked out for the second half.  Durability questions will make him seem riskier than everyone in his tier except Watkins.

Definitely will be a steal IF he stays healthy, but a lot of strategists will be advocating taking the draft discount and flipping him early in the season.

 

[FF Ninja]

He'll get dinged for two straight years of starting a season on fire and being knocked out for the second half.  Durability questions will make him seem riskier than everyone in his tier except Watkins.

Definitely will be a steal IF he stays healthy, but a lot of strategists will be advocating taking the draft discount and flipping him early in the season.

I don't disagree with anything you just said. I guess I should've added that he missed part of 2015, too. The masses will definitely shy away from him due to this, which is why I said there's no way he sniffs the 1st round next year. Personally, his injuries don't scare me. One was a lacerated kidney - total freaking fluke. The other was an ACL which was the first of his career. That injury still has a stigma from back when it was a career killer 15 years ago, but Jordy Nelson at age 31 is doing pretty well this year.

 

[Milkman]

I'll give this a crack. Top 24. 12 team league. Regardless of PPR or not- this is my preference, as scarcity dictates that top 3 selections should be RB, regardless of format.

1. Zeke- Elite talent with huge workload on a run committed team with league's best line.

2. Johnson- Great balance of rush and receiving talent.

3. Bell- The top 3 are all pretty close, Bell is last because of suspensions

4. A. Brown- Most consistent performer in the league

5. Evans- He's arrived. Enormous volume with even more upside. TD sustainability the only question.

6. OBJ- Despite a few clunkers and histrionics, an elite player.

7. J. Jones- A no brainer first round pick, could go as high as 5, but not lower than 7.

(As of this writing, this is my first drop off point, meaning I'd be most comfortable having a top 7 pick).

8. Bryant- Nagging injuries a concern, but has round bond w/ Dak.

9. AJ Green- He's ahead of Dez if there's no lingering injury concern.

10. Nelson- A little TD dependent but still a solid choice.

11. A . Cooper- Lack of consistency and Crabtree's resurgence drop him to back of round #1.

12. M. Gordon- Has put it together this year despite line play. TDs may shrink next year

13. L. McCoy- Has injuries here and there but delivers when he plays. Still a homerun hitter.

14. D. Murray- Only 28, has rebounded well. Not as desirous in dynasty due to volume concerns.

(Next drop off point for me- for those that tier)

15. J. Ajayi- Has emerged this year. Would not take him any higher than the middle of round #2, but is legit RB1.

16. D. Hopkins- I believe Houston will be fixed enough to have Hopkins return to WR1 status.

17. ADP- Of course, this is predicated on a full recovery. Still a beast. Less value, of course, in dynasty format.

18. M. Thomas- Becoming the #1 option in NO. Still a risk because of Snead and Cooks, but merits back of round 2 consideration.

19. S. Ware- If Charles in gone, he vaults up the ladder into round 1. I believe he's the bellcow next year.

20. D. Freeman- Still 8th in standard RB scoring with Coleman's role.

21. TY Hilton- 7th in standard WR scoring.

22. A. Jeffrey- body of work merits second round selection.

23. R. Gronkowski- Still the single biggest matchup advantage when healthy. For those comfortable with risk.

24. L. Fournette- Elite talent. Moves up if final destination favorable.

Others in the conversation:

Gurley- A level talent on bad team

Miller- Volume remains despite poor results

J. Howard- Could be a late second rounder if bellcow.

Cooks- still room in NO for multiple high round WR.

Rodgers- given body of work, cannot exclude, but I don't go QB in first two rounds.

There will be at least one other rookie RB who lands well and is in the discussion for top 24.

At quick glance T.Y. Hilton is way to low. He's still young, a target hog, and the #1 option on an explosive offense with an elite QB. He's in line for another monster season next year. I've noticed everybody undervaluing him like this so he will be a target of mine in drafts next year. He's a lock to end next season at WR5-10 and potential to break into the top 3 if he gets hot with TDs.

 

[joey]

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[Milkman]

How I rank them but not how it will go.

1. LeVeon Bell - Elite RB in the running game and passing game on a great offense with an elite QB

2. David Johnson - Elite RB in the receiving game and great in the running game. Slightly more risky than Bell in regards to on field performance. Not as good of a QB on the team and not as safe of an offense. 

3. Zeke- Good RB in elite situation. Not the receiver the other two RB's above him are keeps him a tier below.

4.  ODB- Best WR in football in good situation.

6.  Evans- Top 3 WR but Winston is just meh. Would be my #1 WR if not for QB play. Still looks like next year will be another year of a monster target load. Plus this guy is great in the red zone.

5.  Antonio Brown- Top WR in one of the best situations. Getting older and what looks like a shift to LeVeon Bell as the 1A option on offense drops him below Evans.

7.  Dez- Elite QB. Elite Red zone option. Top 3 WR. Lower volume passing offense with great run game keeps him below Evans for now. Some durability concerns but his relationship with Dak should continue to grow and they should open the offense up more with Dak because he's an elite QB.

8. Hilton- Top 5 WR in the best situation if they don't draft another WR. They shouldn't. They should be looking to improve that OL which helps his situation. Super durable. doesn't miss games. Target hog. Improving situation. Safe pick.

9. Julio - top WR + target hog but durability concerns. Is he breaking down? 28 next year. Only 5 TD's this year?

10. Green- Great WR and situation is good just not as good as WR above.

11. Murray- Stud RB behind him. Averaged 234 carries a year the last 6 years. Could see his carries get reduced a little more next year.

12. Cooks - Don't laugh he's 13th in scoring ppg average for all non QB skill players in PPR and he'll be 23 when the season starts. Could be traded which could move him up or down this list. Doesn't move in the slot enough like Hilton does or would be in the running for #1WR in PPR. Just doesn't see enough targets to be considered at this point.

13. Baldwin - Go ahead and laugh. Jimmy Graham is possibly gone this offseason. Locket is hurt/not 100% to start the year. So less competition for targets. Wilson loves him. Seattle should improve the OL this off season. 16th in scoring on a PPG average for all non QB skill players and the offense struggled a bit. Two years in a row top 8 WR in PPR but this year he didn't differently. He was targeted almost 2 more times a game with one game left to go. Less TD dependent this year so if no Jimmy Graham next year red zone looks likely to increase and targets already increased. It's seems everything might be coming together for a monster year for Baldwin.

Just missed the cut.

Jordan Howard, Davante Adams, Cooper, McCoy......

Nelson is ancient and will be 32.5 years old at the start of the season. He's a longshot to be a WR1 next year. I would let someone else draft him. Yes he could have a Brandon Marshall type season or he could fall off completely. Gordon is not a great RB. He ran hot in TDs this year. I don't see him exceling if SD starts to feature him more. I expect the opposite actually. I'm not drafting McCoy in the 1st round. To much volatility/risk for me.  

 

[rockaction]

16 team, standard, no PPR, 4 pt TD passes (my favorite league)

1.1 Ezekiel Elliott - One of the best RBs behind the best OL in football. This guy was a monster towards the end, and was only getting better

1.2 Le'Veon Bell - Great all-around back, great OL

1.3 David Johnson - Probably the best back in football

1.4 LeSean McCoy - Most underrated performance this year

1.5 Antonio Brown - Anything need to be said, really?

1.6 Julio Jones - If he's healthy, he's still the best WR in football with an elite QB

1.7 Mike Evans - All this guy does is put up points. 

1.8 OBJ - Great receiver, elite QB

1.9 Jay Ajayi - After fighting for a job, he was the sixth leading rusher in the NFL behind a good OL with little competition

1.10 Jordan Howard - Another top flight rusher on a lousy team just like...

1.11 Carlos Hyde - His situation is terrible, but he's a top back on talent, much like

1.12 Todd Gurley - Maybe a new coach and a year under Goff's belt helps him?  

1.13 A.J. Green - Should come back strong next year. Smart move to sit him

1.14 TY Hilton - See above for reasons

1.15 DeMarco Murray - Henry behind him knocks him down

1.16 Jordy Nelson - Still going strong, elite QB

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm back to thinking that if you can't land part of what i  would call the top 5 (elliott, Johnson, Julio, Evans, Bell) I go top qb.  In two leagues I am riding rodgers and brees with a bunch of waiver wire pickups into first place.  You just can't replace a guy like brees who put up 40pts for me last week.  I traded Julio Jones on that team 3 weeks ago for picks and have started Tyrell Williams in his place and have won 3 in a row.  

Bad advice imo. Don't forget the top drafted QBs were Cam, AR, RW and Luck. Only AR provided a big advantage over QBs. Cam and RW were disasters for teams. Year before Luck and Rodgers were top 2 drafted QBs. Luck was a total bust. Rodgers was a low end QB1. Both years there were lots of solid to great QBs drafted betweeeb rounds 8 and undrafted.  

 

[Ilov80s]

Off the top of my head:

1. Zeke

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Brown

5. OBJ

6. Evans

7. AJ

8. Julio 

9. McCoy

10. Gordon 

11. Jordy 

12. TY

 

[Ghost Rider]

5.  Antonio Brown- Top WR in one of the best situations. Getting older and what looks like a shift to LeVeon Bell as the 1A option on offense drops him below Evans.

I'd love to see this one unpacked a little more. 

You do realize that despite this shift to Bell, Brown is still the number 1 WR this year, right?

Brown will be 29 at the start of next season. That is not old by WR standards. 

Yeah, his receptions and yards are down this year, but WRs numbers aren't crazy high this year in general, relative to recent years.  We might not see a 1,500-yard WR this year; there were four last year (two of whom went over 1,800).  There will probably only be 3-4 WRs this year with 100+ catches; there were seven last year. 

 

[Andrew74]

I'd love to see this one unpacked a little more. 

You do realize that despite this shift to Bell, Brown is still the number 1 WR this year, right?

Brown will be 29 at the start of next season. That is not old by WR standards. 

Yeah, his receptions and yards are down this year, but WRs numbers aren't crazy high this year in general, relative to recent years.  We might not see a 1,500-yard WR this year; there were four last year (two of whom went over 1,800).  There will probably only be 3-4 WRs this year with 100+ catches; there were seven last year. 

As a AB owner, I felt disappointment since he never gave me those insane games like last year. Then I look each week and he's still the #1 WR.  I think my expectations were so high that it seemed an absolute disappointment while not a relative one. Also, the last couple of games the Steelers seemed to just feed Bell and not open up the passing game. 

But I'm not down on Brown. He's still a top 3 WR asset to me.

 

[grateful zed]

allen robinson should rebound

 

[Milkman]

I'd love to see this one unpacked a little more. 

You do realize that despite this shift to Bell, Brown is still the number 1 WR this year, right?

Brown will be 29 at the start of next season. That is not old by WR standards. 

Yeah, his receptions and yards are down this year, but WRs numbers aren't crazy high this year in general. 

He's still an elite WR but this team seems to be shifting to Bell. Really it's a league wide shift to pass catching RB. Brown's targets are down close to 15% this year and M. Bryant is coming back. Plus Ladarius Green possibly being healthy. I'm assuming another 5-10% reduction in targets next year. 

 

[Ack88]

ARob should rebound, but don't see him going any earlier than round 3. 

 

[Ack88]

He's still an elite WR but this team seems to be shifting to Bell. Really it's a league wide shift to pass catching RB. Brown's targets are down close to 15% this year and M. Bryant is coming back. Plus Ladarius Green possibly being healthy. I'm assuming another 5-10% reduction in targets next year. 

I agree with this completely. Brown is still a top 3 WR but has peaked. IMO- if you are a rebuilding team and he is your best asset, the time to deal him is now. If you are a contender I would hold, obviously, but his value will only regress going forward.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He's still an elite WR but this team seems to be shifting to Bell. Really it's a league wide shift to pass catching RB. Brown's targets are down close to 15% this year and M. Bryant is coming back. Plus Ladarius Green possibly being healthy. I'm assuming another 5-10% reduction in targets next year. 

I don't buy it.  He will still be their number 1 target in the passing game, Roethlisberger loves to feed him the ball, and counting on Bryant (too dumb to avoid getting suspensions) or Green (concussions keep piling up, unfortunately) to actually play a lot and snag targets away seems foolish, IMO. 

 

[Bigboy10182000]

.

 

[cheese]

After the last few seasons, there is no way I'm going with the 2nd tier of RBs before some of the top WRs.  I'll take guys like Jordy and Hilton over Ajayi, Murray, Gordon, Howard, Hyde.

The bust rate is just too high for numerous reasons.  I'm either coming away with Bell, DJ, Zeke or a WR in rd1.

 

[Ilov80s]

After the last few seasons, there is no way I'm going with the 2nd tier of RBs before some of the top WRs.  I'll take guys like Jordy and Hilton over Ajayi, Murray, Gordon, Howard, Hyde.

The bust rate is just too high for numerous reasons.  I'm either coming away with Bell, DJ, Zeke or a WR in rd1.

 Bell, DJ and Zeke offer such a huge upside that they are worth the 1st round gamble. After that, I want safety- guys with proven track records, even if they don't offer the upside of Melvin Gordon or Jay Ajayi. I would take TY Hilton over those guys 10 times out of 10 because I am very confident that I can start Hilton every week without any thought.  

The guy I am thinking of adding is Shady. He was so good this year, will be 29 next year. New coach and schemes could throw things off though. Plus, McCoy has a track record of following great seasons with pretty good seasons.  

 

[Milkman]

Hilton has been super durable too. He's a 1st round pick imo. A top 6 WR again next year.....

 

[Biabreakable]

Good lists guys thanks for sharing.

While I expect Peterson to be playing and most likely starting for a team next season, I do not think he belongs in the top 25 players for fantasy in 2017.

I am a bit surprised by the high rankings of Jay Ajayi by a couple of you. Based on his thread I thought everyone hated the guy. After what he has done, you would think his role as their starter would be safe, but I am not entirely sure about that.

There are some very good RB coming into the league through the draft this year and there are some quality RB such as Eddie Lacy coming back from injury as well. So some of these players being listed, such as Ajayi, Hyde, Howard seem like safe bets at this point to be starters next season, free agency and the draft will likely change that outlook for at least one of these players, possibly more.

I was looking at total plays in the NFL recently as the season is almost complete now.

While the league is not quite on the same pace as record setting 2015 that almost reached 33000 total plays that year.

In 2016 total plays are on pace for 32724 total plays 

Passing attempts went up.. again on pace for 18325 passing attempts which is slightly more than the record of 18298 passing attempts last season.

Rushing attempts are down. On pace for 13283 rushing attempts which is about 200 less than 2015 (13488) which was about 200 less than the previous seasons total rushing attempts.

I think there was a bit less up tempo offense this year or total plays might have been higher. No Peyton Manning changes things league wide in a somewhat noticeable way.

While fantasy scoring for RB as a whole has improved from a pretty poor 2015 season for RB, the total plays and run/pass distribution shows the same trend of more passing and less running.

Just based on fantasy points, the top 20 or so RB did more this year than last season and scored closer to the WRs than they have been the past couple seasons.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

There are some very good RB coming into the league through the draft this year and there are some quality RB such as Eddie Lacy coming back from injury as well. So some of these players being listed, such as Ajayi, Hyde, Howard seem like safe bets at this point to be starters next season, free agency and the draft will likely change that outlook for at least one of these players, possibly more.

This is a very good point, of course, but in reality, how many NFL RBs are there for which this isn't the case? (Maybe a half-dozen.) Is that number any different from the past few seasons? (Not really.)

So is this really a disguised lesson that we should all be drafting Tier 2 WRs before Tier 2 RBs? (It's not a rhetorical question, BTW.)

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Our league is a little different as high end QBs have significant value, so take this with a grain of salt -

1. David Johnson

2. Le'Veon Bell

3. Antonio Brown

4. Ezekiel Elliot

5. Odell Beckham, Jr.

6. Mike Evans

7. Julio Jones

8. AJ Green

9. Tom Brady

10. Aaron Rodgers

11. Lesean McCoy

12. Devonta Freeman

I say top 4 are no brainers - they will be gone.  5-12 will be a bit of a crapshoot.  6 will definitely be Evans if he is not gone at 5 (Buc fan had 6 slot).  The real wildcard is we have a few speculative drafters that always take guys WAY too early so even though I think this top 12 is pretty accurate, I guarantee when my 12 pick rolls around I will have multiple options from this list.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is a very good point, of course, but in reality, how many NFL RBs are there for which this isn't the case? (Maybe a half-dozen.) Is that number any different from the past few seasons? (Not really.)

So is this really a disguised lesson that we should all be drafting Tier 2 WRs before Tier 2 RBs? (It's not a rhetorical question, BTW.)

That is true this this would apply to all of the RB aside from a select few such as Bell, Elliot and Johnson.and no it isn't that different than last season or the season before. You have to back pretty far now (a little more than a decade) before you see the RB opportunity used to be a higher percentage of the total plays being run than it is now. 200 rushing attempts may not seem like a lot across 32 teams, but the trend has been a steady decline in the total number of rushing attempts league wide.

It could be one way to approach the avoidance of risk that comes with the tier two RB by selecting players from other positions until later on in the draft. This kind of thinking can lead to zero RB type strategy or if you do draft a RB in round one, then the need to fill other positions with second and third picks becomes more important.

I think leagues are won by identifying the undervalued (tier 2 players) who are falling in the draft (after pick 60) at all positions, but for early draft planning yes I think the numbers lead to a logical conclusion that a tier 2 WR should be drafted before a tier 2 RB. 

The total points should have you leaning towards the WR.

The VBD (scarcity) should have you leaning towards the RB.

All other things being equal there are fewer potential tier 2 RB than WR each year so that should have you leaning towards the RB in redraft.

In dynasty where career length is more important, should have owners preferring the WR.

Now if you apply the tiering the way I do, how many tier 2 players at each position remaining will also influence your decision about who to take first when it is your pick. As there are fewer tier 2 RB than WR, this could have you drafting the RB over the WR, when there are only a few tier 2 RB left but still over a dozen tier 2 WRs.

 

[Turk]

Hyde managed to pull out a decent season despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the league, being dinged up, having a vulture QB part time, and a terrible D.  If SF gets a nice draw next year schedule wise he will be a lock for a top 10 back.

Turk

 

[fasteddie_21]

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[Franknbeans]

There was a dude awhile back who researched it and discovered there are about 5 backs who fall out of the top 10 each year.

In my main PPR league, the top backs are...

Johnson

Elliott

Bell

McCoy

Murray

Freeman

Gordon

Howard

Ingram

Ajayi 

through 16 weeks

To me, the more interesting questions are who will fall out and who will take their place?

 

[petekrum]

There was a dude awhile back who researched it and discovered there are about 5 backs who fall out of the top 10 each year.

In my main PPR league, the top backs are...

Johnson

Elliott

Bell

McCoy

Murray

Freeman

Gordon

Howard

Ingram

Ajayi 

through 16 weeks

To me, the more interesting questions are who will fall out and who will take their place?

From that list I'd guess McCoy, Murray, Gordon, and Ingram.

 

[FUBAR]

Our league is a little different as high end QBs have significant value, so take this with a grain of salt -

1. David Johnson

2. Le'Veon Bell

3. Antonio Brown

4. Ezekiel Elliot

5. Odell Beckham, Jr.

6. Mike Evans

7. Julio Jones

8. AJ Green

9. Tom Brady

10. Aaron Rodgers

11. Lesean McCoy

12. Devonta Freeman

I say top 4 are no brainers - they will be gone.  5-12 will be a bit of a crapshoot.  6 will definitely be Evans if he is not gone at 5 (Buc fan had 6 slot).  The real wildcard is we have a few speculative drafters that always take guys WAY too early so even though I think this top 12 is pretty accurate, I guarantee when my 12 pick rolls around I will have multiple options from this list.

Overall your list looks good but there's zero chance I take a qb in the top 10, even Brady or Rodgers.  Give me Nelson and hilton.  But really I want a top 7 pick as I'm not super confident after Julio.  

He's still an elite WR but this team seems to be shifting to Bell. Really it's a league wide shift to pass catching RB. Brown's targets are down close to 15% this year and M. Bryant is coming back. Plus Ladarius Green possibly being healthy. I'm assuming another 5-10% reduction in targets next year. 

There's no guarantee bell is a Steeler next year.  Probably will be, but they don't tend to overpay for their own players. 

 

[FUBAR]

From that list I'd guess McCoy, Murray, Gordon, and Ingram.

Disagree on McCoy but agree on the others.  I'd guess Howard or Ajayi.  Sure it's possible McCoy gets dinged up or his new coach doesn't utilize him. 

 

[Gandalf]

In a 1 QB league, I don't want any QB in round 1 or 2 for that matter. Also with round one I pay more for safety. If you swing and miss on your first rounder it really hurts. Just ask Gurley and Arob owners. I want a bell cow RB with more than 1 year track record or WR with a decent QB. So for me Ajayi or Howard are not on my first round list.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hyde managed to pull out a decent season despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the league, being dinged up, having a vulture QB part time, and a terrible D.  If SF gets a nice draw next year schedule wise he will be a lock for a top 10 back.

Turk

While that might be true that team is a 

Hyde will be nothing more than a 3rd round selection, and I'd be hesitant to select him there until 

1. They hire a GM

2. They draft competently

3, 4, 5, & 6. We know who the starting QB is

7. The Yorks pry open their coin purse (creeeeeaaaak) and spend some of their ridiculous amount of cap budget on FAs and show that they possess even the smallest amount of f**ks about winning. 

Until then Hyde is a desperation 2nd or "I can live with it" 3rd RB.

Not a 1st rounder in FFB, IMO. Not unless he's traded for draft picks to a team that needs a RB, in which case I'm on it like a fat kid on a ho ho.