2018 Elections Thread (1 Viewer)

[TobiasFunke]

I've been thinking about how the Dems can reassert themselves if/when they regain control of government.  Obviously they can undo some of the gerrymandering at the state level after the 2020 census, but that just gets them back to the previous status quo at best.  I think they should incorporate a second Voting Rights Act into their official platform.  Automatic voter registration for all citizens and move election day to a weekend or make it a national holiday. Both moves that would increase turnout among the poor and disenfranchised .Maybe also restrict state ID requirements and establish minimum requirements for polling place hours or absentee balloting, although there might be constitutional issues with doing that through Congress.

Not only would this give the Dems a massive boost, it would also expose the GOP's concerted voter suppression efforts over the years and would be nearly impossible to reverse once it's in place.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

Texas is inching slowly but inexorably into a state where white people don't constitute a majority of voters. Dems' challenge remains the same, however -- getting the turnout. But Donald is showing a remarkable ability to get Dems to turn out.

Demographics continues to be the GOP's biggest long term vulnerability and let's face it, their policies are not attractive to the voting blocs that are growing every year.

Also... the administration’s tepid response to a hurricane hitting Puerto Rico will hurt them in Florida, both from people outraged by the response and from people leaving the island and moving there.   GOP will need to step up their voter suppression game.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Texas is inching slowly but inexorably into a state where white people don't constitute a majority of voters. Dems' challenge remains the same, however -- getting the turnout. But Donald is showing a remarkable ability to get Dems to turn out.

Demographics continues to be the GOP's biggest long term vulnerability and let's face it, their policies are not attractive to the voting blocs that are growing every year.

The Dems' #3 GOP Senate seat target in 2018 (after NV and AZ) should be Ted Cruz.  I think they can get him.

 

[Sammy3469]

Also... the administration’s tepid response to a hurricane hitting Puerto Rico will hurt them in Florida, both from people outraged by the response and from people leaving the island and moving there.   GOP will need to step up their voter suppression game.

[Korbach] Challenge Accepted! [/Korbach]

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

[Korbach] Challenge Accepted! [/Korbach]

He’s currently polling as the likely Republican nominee for the Kansas gubernatorial election next November.  It’s like everyone who said it couldn’t get worse than Brownback issued a triple-dog-dare to find out.

 

[Sammy3469]

The Dems' #3 GOP Senate seat target in 2018 (after NV and AZ) should be Ted Cruz.  I think they can get him.

I don't know if they can, but by doing do, it'll put a bunch of the House Seats in play.  I know they gerrymandered around the cities really well, but some of the college educated white swings around Birmingham (50+ points from '16 to '17) and in the college towns, would make me very nervous if I was someone like Culberson or Barton.

 

[Sammy3469]

He’s currently polling as the likely Republican nominee for the Kansas gubernatorial election next November.  It’s like everyone who said it couldn’t get worse than Brownback issued a triple-dog-dare to find out.

You are welcome to take him back...pretty please?

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

I don't think it's "might". People like King, Issa, Rohrabacher, Walters, Knight, NJ2, MacArthur, Lance, Faso, Tenney, Katko are all extremely endangered even without the tax bill.  Throw that in and well I won't be surprised if the majority of those Reps go down.  Then you throw in the upper middle west and it's doable map to flip (and that doesn't include some of the Texas districts).  

I suppose it's possible that every person in Trump's base turns out, but as AL, VA, and NJ have shown,  I sort of doubt it.  

Thanks for chiming in.  I’m more in tune with flyover country so I wasn’t comfortable making a stronger statement about the fate of the coasts.  

You bring up a good point about Trump’s (opposite of) coattails.  What’s going to energize those voters to show up at midterms? 

Also curious what the body count will be as #MeToo spreads.  This will be important at the state legislature level, too.  A lot of those seats go unchallenged, but who knows how many indictments are gonna fly the next 6-8 months?  There’s a lot of state-level legislators who are there because their past/present can’t take the scrutiny of a higher-profile race.  What if the scrutiny come down to meet them?

 

[roadkill1292]

The Dems' #3 GOP Senate seat target in 2018 (after NV and AZ) should be Ted Cruz.  I think they can get him.

 It's not nearly as long a shot as it once was.

Texas is no less vulnerable -- and, in some ways, more so -- to the regular demographic changes of rural flight to the cities and a growing bloc of educated women in addition to the steady Hispanic creep northward. At one time I thought turning Texas blue was a pipe dream, and I still think it's a decade or more away, but now I think it's pretty unavoidable unless the GOP returns to the American middle. A Trump Party can't win without Texas and Florida

 

[TobiasFunke]

I don't know if they can, but by doing do, it'll put a bunch of the House Seats in play.  I know they gerrymandered around the cities really well, but some of the college educated white swings around Birmingham (50+ points from '16 to '17) and in the college towns, would make me very nervous if I was someone like Culberson or Barton.

He's underwater in Texas and he'll have a tough time getting turnout from the Trump loyalists because he clashed with their man so often. Dems already have their man and he's a strong candidate.  I wouldn't say it's 50/50 but it's definitely doable.

Also Barton is retiring, because of the sexts.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

You are welcome to take him back...pretty please?

 

He ran for Congress in my home district in 2004.  He got crushed in the election (IIRC, he barely eked out a three-way primary) but since he was into demonizing illegal immigration back when it was still playing clubs, his profile in the party raised even after losing an election badly.  Maybe we should’ve let him win; handing him a loss seems to have had “don’t shoot Mongo, you’ll just make him mad” effect.

 

[Sammy3469]

Thanks for chiming in.  I’m more in tune with flyover country so I wasn’t comfortable making a stronger statement about the fate of the coasts.  

You bring up a good point about Trump’s (opposite of) coattails.  What’s going to energize those voters to show up at midterms? 

Also curious what the body count will be as #MeToo spreads.  This will be important at the state legislature level, too.  A lot of those seats go unchallenged, but who knows how many indictments are gonna fly the next 6-8 months?  There’s a lot of state-level legislators who are there because their past/present can’t take the scrutiny of a higher-profile race.  What if the scrutiny come down to meet them?

There are 10 Republicans from NY in the House.  I won't be surprised if 9 of them lose (Collins is the only safe one).  That's how bad the environment is here.  There's another 3 in NJ that look really vulnerable (up to 5 there).  And the Northeast isn't as nearly toxic as the West is right now (Trumps approval out there is 25% versus low 30% here).  

Trump has completely lost college educated people and non-college educated woman over the past year.  Unless that changes, there are a bunch of even safe-ish Republican districts that come into play.  At the beginning of the year, people thought there were at best 17-20 seats in play, that figure is 50+ at this point.  

 

[roadkill1292]

We have but one Republican among our eight reps here in Maryland (pea-brained Andy Harris, who has an aneurysm every time he thinks about DC residents smoking weed legally) but Dr. Andy won his mostly Eastern Shore district last year 68-28. That may be too much even for Trump-stank to overcome.

The best GOP showing in any of the other districts was 40%. 

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

We have but one Republican among our eight reps here in Maryland (pea-brained Andy Harris, who has an aneurysm every time he thinks about DC residents smoking weed legally) but Dr. Andy won his mostly Eastern Shore district last year 68-28. That may be too much even for Trump-stank to overcome.

The best GOP showing in any of the other districts was 40%. 

Yeah because we’re gerrymandered for the Dems.  

 

[roadkill1292]

Yeah because we’re gerrymandered for the Dems.  

Big time. Though one could make the parallel argument to drawing districts to ensure minority representation in southern states -- maybe Republicans win none at all with neutrally designed boundaries.

 

[Sammy3469]

Looks like TN-SEN is really in play as well.  Looks like Blackburn is seen by Trump-lite by Republicans and they flee her similar to Moore in AL.

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/14/gravis-marketing-tennessee-poll/

 

[Juxtatarot]

Very interesting discussion.  Good work guys!

 

[Lutherman2112]

Looks like TN-SEN is really in play as well.  Looks like Blackburn is seen by Trump-lite by Republicans and they flee her similar to Moore in AL.

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/12/14/gravis-marketing-tennessee-poll/

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Democrat James Mackler says he’s dropping out of the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee to replace Sen. Bob Corker, a move that appears to clear the path to the Democratic nomination for former Gov. Phil Bredesen.

 

[Sammy3469]

Oh Paul...my guess is he doesn't even make election day 2018 with this leaking and if he does, there's a decent shot Randy Bryce saves him the trouble.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/14/paul-ryan-retire-speaker-ready-leave-washington-216103

 

[TobiasFunke]

Oh Paul...my guess is he doesn't even make election day 2018 with this leaking and if he does, there's a decent shot Randy Bryce saves him the trouble.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/14/paul-ryan-retire-speaker-ready-leave-washington-216103

This is more news that's clearly helpful for the Dems in 2018 IMO. His district is more in play (only rated a +5 GOP lean), but more importantly he actually polls better than Congress overall and the GOP members overall at the moment. Independents and moderates will rightly wonder just what a GOP majority would look like with an extremist like Steve Scalise leading it instead of a guy who is perceived as a voice of reason, and vote accordingly. It also might open the floodgates to more GOP retirements- it's hard to coax other reluctant members to stick around for another term for the collective good if the speaker is retiring.

 

[roadkill1292]

The Bannon wing vows to run plenty of Trumpists in '18.  After what happened Tuesday night, this sounds like a risky strategy to me. Energize the new Dem coalition against your candidate and discourage your own moderates from participating at all.

 

[roadkill1292]

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Democrat James Mackler says he’s dropping out of the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee to replace Sen. Bob Corker, a move that appears to clear the path to the Democratic nomination for former Gov. Phil Bredesen.

Republicans are mulling over asking Peyton Manning to run, in part because he outpolls Bredesen and the current GOP frontrunner doesn't.

"Let's pass this tax cut! OMAHA! OMAHA!"

 

[Sammy3469]

This is more news that's clearly helpful for the Dems in 2018 IMO. His district is more in play (only rated a +5 GOP lean), but more importantly he actually polls better than Congress overall and the GOP members overall at the moment. Independents and moderates will rightly wonder just what a GOP majority would look like with an extremist like Steve Scalise leading it instead of a guy who is perceived as a voice of reason, and vote accordingly. It also might open the floodgates to more GOP retirements- it's hard to coax other reluctant members to stick around for another term for the collective good if the speaker is retiring.

I know Ryan loves to play the aw-shucks, I'm a martyr card, but the entire thing strike me as too cute by half (if not more).  You're asking your constituents to send you back to Washington...to retire? I mean the ads right themselves.  Even letting the story get out and then putting out a non-denial denial seems stupid.  The best I can come up with is maybe this allows them to nationalize the entire thing as Trump vs Pelosi.

 

[Lutherman2112]

Came across this video from WV state senator Richard Ojeda. He is running for Congress in WV Third District.

https://youtu.be/pqsa0c8lHv0

ETA: Background story of attack

and https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/09/west-virginia-state-senate-is-brutally-beaten-just-days-before-primary-blames-politics/?utm_term=.4bfb803a4e67 

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

There are 10 Republicans from NY in the House.  I won't be surprised if 9 of them lose (Collins is the only safe one).  That's how bad the environment is here.  There's another 3 in NJ that look really vulnerable (up to 5 there).  And the Northeast isn't as nearly toxic as the West is right now (Trumps approval out there is 25% versus low 30% here).  

Trump has completely lost college educated people and non-college educated woman over the past year.  Unless that changes, there are a bunch of even safe-ish Republican districts that come into play.  At the beginning of the year, people thought there were at best 17-20 seats in play, that figure is 50+ at this point.  

Swing Left added five districts today:MI-08, NJ-02, NJ-11, VA-05, and WA-03.  The MI district is Lansing and surrounding, which includes Michigan State University in East Lansing.  The VA district includes UVA.  

 

[Henry Ford]

Came across this video from WV state senator Richard Ojeda. He is running for Congress in WV Third District.

https://youtu.be/pqsa0c8lHv0

ETA: Background story of attack

and https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/09/west-virginia-state-senate-is-brutally-beaten-just-days-before-primary-blames-politics/?utm_term=.4bfb803a4e67 

Men and women like that need to be in our government.  I know it's a commercial, and maybe he's not really like that.  But men and women like the man portrayed in that commercial need to be in our government.

 

[joffer]

Men and women like that need to be in our government.  I know it's a commercial, and maybe he's not really like that.  But men and women like the man portrayed in that commercial need to be in our government.

 check out Mj Hegar in the Texas 31st

 

[squistion]

Democrats have a +18 advantage on a generic congressional ballot, 56-38.

“That 18-point edge is the widest Democrats have held in CNN polling on the 2018 contests, and the largest at this point in midterm election cycles dating back two decades.”

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/20/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-advantage-grows-2018/index.html

 

[joffer]

Democrats have a +18 advantage on a generic congressional ballot, 56-38.

“That 18-point edge is the widest Democrats have held in CNN polling on the 2018 contests, and the largest at this point in midterm election cycles dating back two decades.”

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/20/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-advantage-grows-2018/index.html

Are those the same polls that said the earth was flat?

 

[Gopher State]

Are those the same polls that said the earth was flat?

X2

 

[squistion]

Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 1h1 hour ago

Media elites are out of touch with how unpopular the tax bill is with real Americans.

Hugh Hewitt‏ @hughhewitt 10h10 hours ago

Amused that Ds and MSM somehow have persuaded themselves that generic ballot polls 10 months out from voting mean more than massive tax cuts

 

[TobiasFunke]

Good thread here that has polling information about specific races.

The numbers will slip once there's a nominee because generic candidates almost always poll better than actual ones since they don't have flaws.  But it still paints a pretty rosy picture, and some of them poll the incumbent against a specific challenger and still look good.  For example in NE-2, which the incumbent won by just one point (Trump won it by only two points) the 2016 challenger is now +9.

If you're fortunate enough to live in one of those districts, give 'em hell for the rest of us.

 

[Sammy3469]

Good thread here that has polling information about specific races.

The numbers will slip once there's a nominee because generic candidates almost always poll better than actual ones since they don't have flaws.  But it still paints a pretty rosy picture, and some of them poll the incumbent against a specific challenger and still look good.  For example in NE-2, which the incumbent won by just one point (Trump won it by only two points) the 2016 challenger is now +9.

If you're fortunate enough to live in one of those districts, give 'em hell for the rest of us.

This is their summation:

So that's 25 GOP held districts we've polled where the client chose to release the poll and a Democrat's been ahead. And of course we haven't polled everywhere. 11 other GOP districts we've polled it's close

It's going to be interesting to see what the Republicans actually run on.  I assume taxes and we'll see how that goes.  

 

[Slapdash]

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

 

[Hilts]

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

Interesting article. Republicans deserve to get decimated. Let's hope Democrats run a platform that's based on more than just that if these polls are going to come true.

 

[badmojo1006]

Barry Manilla wants to run for President. He has some good ideas

 

[roadkill1292]

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

If Bannon gets his way and runs a bunch of Trumpian crazies, this could get even worse for the GOP. 

I particularly liked the nugget about Americans overwhelmingly thinking the economy is in great shape (tell that to all those Trump voters in Kentucky and West Virginia) while Donald's approval rating has "stabilized" at 37%. The economy used to be pretty much a cure-all for whatever ailed a president's popularity.

 

[Hilts]

Claude Taylor‏Verified account @TrueFactsStated 23h23 hours ago

Offer. We are rolling out a series of hard hitting billboards like one below on Matt Gaetz, Steve King, Dana Rohrabacher, Jim Jordan, Devin Nunes and Darrell Issa. If any Dem House candidates wants to cosponsor a billboard going after their GOP opponent-Mad Dog PAC will pay half.

I like it

This is pretty great, but I think the money would probably be better spent getting liberals to vote. Especially the black votes. Dear God, Democrats, just do whatever you can to get the African American community to save your ### across the country and you might actually have a chance at coming away with enough wins to turn the tide. 

 

[tosberg34]

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

After last election I don't know if we should be looking at polls and getting all giddy.

I think the hope for a bloodbath is just setting yourself up for another massive letdown again.

 

[HellToupee]

Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 1h1 hour ago

Media elites are out of touch with how unpopular the tax bill is with real Americans.

Real Americans???

Real Americans, working Americans are going to be estatic with the tax bill when it kicks in

 

[squistion]

Real Americans???

Real Americans, working Americans are going to be estatic with the tax bill when it kicks in

Yes, real Americans. Only 32% approve of the tax cuts, they are not ecstatic as the rich folks like you who own vacation homes on lakefront property in New Hampshire. I'd be excited too if I had your bank account, job and property holdings.

https://nypost.com/2017/12/25/why-are-so-many-americans-angry-about-a-tax-cut/

An extension of the Bush cuts in 2010 got a 54 percent approval rating. Even a tax hike in 1993 by President Bill Clinton got a 34 percent approval rating. Yet the average approval rating from all the polls for Trump's tax cut was only 32 percent.

 

[timschochet]

Yes, real Americans. Only 32% approve of the tax cuts, they are not ecstatic as the rich folks like you who own vacation homes on lakefront property in New Hampshire. I'd be excited too if I had your bank account, job and property holdings.

https://nypost.com/2017/12/25/why-are-so-many-americans-angry-about-a-tax-cut/

An extension of the Bush cuts in 2010 got a 54 percent approval rating. Even a tax hike in 1993 by President Bill Clinton got a 34 percent approval rating. Yet the average approval rating from all the polls for Trump's tax cut was only 32 percent.

Wait, HT owns lakefront property in New Hampshire? 

Hey HT is that where you saw the tens of thousands of illegal votes? Were you sitting on your roof? 

 

[squistion]

Wait, HT owns lakefront property in New Hampshire? 

Hey HT is that where you saw the tens of thousands of illegal votes? Were you sitting on your roof? 

Yes, one of three pieces of property he owns.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Is Tim still claiming he never trolls?

 

[pecorino]

Interesting article. Republicans deserve to get decimated. Let's hope Democrats run a platform that's based on more than just that if these polls are going to come true.

Personally, I don’t care what platform the Dems run on. I refuse to vote for any Republican who has not called out Trump, which is just about all of them. As a conservative, I am ashamed by what the Republican Party has become. They deserve to be decimated and I’d encourage others to join me, independent of the issues. That said, aside from the abortion issue, I expect the Dems to roll out a decent platform that I can live with. 

 

[Henry Ford]

Personally, I don’t care what platform the Dems run on. I refuse to vote for any Republican who has not called out Trump, which is just about all of them. As a conservative, I am ashamed by what the Republican Party has become. They deserve to be decimated and I’d encourage others to join me, independent of the issues. That said, aside from the abortion issue, I expect the Dems to roll out a decent platform that I can live with. 

I’d also like to throw my support behind the literal, historical use of “decimated” on this one. 

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

I’d also like to throw my support behind the literal, historical use of “decimated” on this one. 

I literally had to do the math to figure out if this would be sufficient in the House.  

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

Ok so 1938 then.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Yeah, this'll play.

Hey other Democrats- do that.

 

[JuniorNB]

After last election I don't know if we should be looking at polls and getting all giddy.

I think the hope for a bloodbath is just setting yourself up for another massive letdown again.

The poll numbers weren't very far off in the last election.