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2018 Wins Over/Under: Pick 3 & Explain Your Work (1 Viewer)

Eephus

Eephus

Footballguy
The numbers are from a few weeks ago but this is for fun, not money

Code: 
Arizona Diamondbacks     85.5
Atlanta Braves         74.5
Baltimore Orioles     73
Boston Red Sox         91.5
Chicago Cubs         94.5
Chicago White Sox     68
Cincinnati Reds     73.5
Cleveland Indians     94.5
Colorado Rockies     82
Detroit Tigers         68.5
Houston Astros         96.5
Kansas City Royals     71.5
Los Angeles Angels     84.5
Los Angeles Dodgers     96.5
Miami Marlins         64.5
Milwaukee Brewers     84.5
Minnesota Twins     82.5
New York Mets         81
New York Yankees     94.5
Oakland A's         74.5
Philadelphia Phillies     75.5
Pittsburgh Pirates     73
San Diego Padres     69.5
San Francisco Giants     81.5
Seattle Mariners     81.5
St. Louis Cardinals     85.5
Tampa Bay Rays         77.5
Texas Rangers         77.5
Toronto Blue Jays     81
Washington Nationals     92.5


 
Tampa under 77.5 seems like a gimme since the line has probably moved since the fire sale.  I'm historically terrible at this which means the Rays will be in playoff contention until the final week of the season. 

I like Toronto over 81.  There's enough pitching there and I think they made some nice unheralded moves during the off-season.  They'll probably win 81 though and I'll regret the half win on the line.

Phillies over 75.5.  I think they're the second best team in a weak division.  The NL has some very bad teams which should help teams like Philadelphia who aren't tanking.  They also seem like an organization that would make deals to improve the big league team if they have a decent first half.

 
Oakland and Atlanta have the same number? Atlanta, over. Oakland, under.

Atlanta has the right mix of vets and kids, on both the mound and the box. Lack of stars may keep them a year out, but in that division I think it'll be hard to hit the under. If they hit then they may buy some stars in July.

Speaking of the division, Oakland's is brutal. And they have no pitching. Good luck. 

Third one is ole reliable, betting against the Mets doctors. Under, because they'll all be in the infirmary by Memorial Day. Maybe Manfred's next round of crack pot ideas will allow Dr. Nick to put together the healthy pieces and parts of the team to build a 9 player team of cyborgs. That'd be fun.

 
Cleveland o94.5

last year team won 102 games.  They lost Carlos Santana, but basically replaced him with a year or two younger Yonder Alonso who put up eerily similar stats.  They should have Brantley for at least a stretch before he gets hurt again.  But really, look at that division.  White Sox are still in rebuild mode.  Only team in the AL that I think is as bad is Detroit - and both are project at 68 or so wins.  KC has pretty much dismantled their team and are only projected at 71 1/2 wins, and Minnesota is maybe getting better, but I still only peg them at or about .500.  Pitching on the Indians is a bit sketchy, but I still think this team challenges for AL Best record and at or about 100 wins.

Cubs u94.5

Just think this team is quite a bit overvalued and plays in a very competitive division.  Lester is the #1 starter, just turned 34, and let's face it there are a lot of innings on that arm now.  10 years straight of 180+ innings, with 8 or those 10 years over 200 ip. And while I think Darvish rebounds a bit, and Hendricks and Quintana are solid enough, I just don't think that's an elite staff anymore.  Offense with Bryant and Rizzo is nice, but the offense is not really a sabremetician's dream.  Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Heyward are all OBP black holes getting on less than .330 last year?  Even Zobrist only managed a paltry 318 obp, this is not the kind of team I'd back to get ton of wins.  Sure, they may hit 4-5 hr's in a game, but more than likely all solo shots.  Milwaukee has seemingly improved in the offseason adding Yelich and Cain.  I expect St Louis to also be better.  Cincy and Pittsburgh should be doormats, but I think the Cubs top out around 87-88 wins.

Yankees u94.5

Yankees unders are pretty much auto bets.  Always team is overvalued.   And I know everyone thinks Stanton is going to be great in NY, but let's see him perform in a pressure situation first.  And that pitching staff has way too many questions for me to be backing this team to get 90+ wins.  Great bullpen, but I don't think I can trust any of those starters outside maybe Severino to get me 5-6 quality innings on a routine basis.

 
Padres over 69.5. - Their pitching is awful but I don't think they're any worse than last year when they won 71. I think the tremendously unsexy additions of Hosmer, Galvis, Headley, Mitchell have a similar "raise the floor" impact as the Blue Jays mess of unheralded additions, plus maybe they get some rookies up later in the year and start looking like a halfway decent team.

Royals under 71.5 - I don't even like the guys they lost that much but that is just an awful looking lineup. Duda is the only one with even passable on base skills. At best they have what, 4 average MLB players and one starter?  Plus, I just don't like them.

Phillies over 75.5 - Lots of upside in their lineup now as they've incorporated most of their young guys. Full year of Hoskins, rotation looks to be coming along, division isn't overly strong, I can see a pretty clear path here. I think I took them to be over last year as well and they finished with the third worst record in baseball, so they owe me.

I would agree with @Eephus on Tampa under and Toronto over but I have no hint of objectivity in either pick, so...

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Northern Voice said:
Padres over 69.5. - Their pitching is awful but I don't think they're any worse than last year when they won 71. I think the tremendously unsexy additions of Hosmer, Galvis, Headley, Mitchell have a similar "raise the floor" impact as the Blue Jays mess of unheralded additions, plus maybe they get some rookies up later in the year and start looking like a halfway decent team.

@Eephus
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I was surprised that the Padres outperformed their Pythagorean W/L by 11 games last year.  Based on runs scored and given up, they would have been expected to finish 2017 at 59-103.

 
Giants Over 81.5

i like the offseason additions and a healthy madbum. Should be in wildcard hunt. 

Orioles over 73

Buck Showalter gonna Buck Showalter.  Plus the AL has a lot of bad teams 

Blue Jays Under 81

I’d swap them with the Orioles. The lineup is weak and the pitching suspect. I don’t see .500. 

 
FishTacoTuesday said:
Orioles over 73

Buck Showalter gonna Buck Showalter.  Plus the AL has a lot of bad teams 
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I used this logic last year and the O's finished 5 or 6 games under their line.  There's definitely some offense but any plan that involves Cashner and Tillman isn't a very good one.

 
Eephus said:
I used this logic last year and the O's finished 5 or 6 games under their line.  There's definitely some offense but any plan that involves Cashner and Tillman isn't a very good one.
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Baltimore amazingly found a way to finish behind Toronto last year when the Jays gave 1300 PA's to Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney and Jose Bautista's corpse, got nothing from Aaron Sanchez and missed 40 some games of Donaldson but I assume DD's post was just to troll me. 

 
Northern Voice said:
Baltimore amazingly found a way to finish behind Toronto last year when the Jays gave 1300 PA's to Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney and Jose Bautista's corpse, got nothing from Aaron Sanchez and missed 40 some games of Donaldson but I assume DD's post was just to troll me. 
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Nope, Orioles>Blue Jays. I believe that, 

 
Royals u71.5 and Rays u74.5 (current line) for the same reason - both teams are actively tanking. They've cleaned house, the atmosphere is toxic, they'll let young guys scuffle to "see what they have", they'll hold back the prospects for an extra year of arb, and they'll look to trade-off any remaining assets at the deadline. They want to lose. And they will.

Nationals o92.5 - I think this is the best team in the NL and I think they play the whole season with a sense of urgency. 100+ wins.

 
Tigers Under 68.5 - This team won 64 games last year, 6 of the top 8 WAR from 2017 are gone, and the number is 68.5? Pitching is the strength of the farm system right now, but if we see anyone this year, which is unlikely, its probably via a Sept call up. After Fulmer, whose elbow could implode at any moment, the 2-5 of their rotation (Zim, Boyd, Fiers, Liriano) is simply awful. Roster Resource has Leonys Martin (career .300 OBP) and Jose Iglesias (.316) penciled into the top 2 slots of the lineup. Even if that doesn't happen, they'll be at the bottom of the lineup, keeping it from flipping over on a regular basis. The only positive I can see with this team is that they'll be strong up the middle defensively, but the corners are a keystone cops ensemble of butchers.

Rangers Under 77.5 - Speaking of teams with an awful 2 through 5, I present to you Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Doug Fister and Matt Bush. Couple that with every team in the AL West being as good if not better than last year and this team easily goes under last year's win total of 78.

Rockies Over 82 - I'm defaulting here to the logic that bullpens win games in today's MLB and they appear to have put together a rather solid one in Colorado.  Infield defense right up there with the best in baseball. Blackmon and Arenado are obviously 2 of the best hitters in baseball, hopefully a full season on Gray. I think they challenge for a Wild Card spot again and even if they don't, I'm not of the opinion that this team is 4-5 games worse than it was last year.

 
E-Z Glider said:
Rays u74.5 they'll look to trade-off any remaining assets at the deadline. 
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This is why I stayed away from Tampa.  I think they will surprise in the 1st half, but will be just bad enough at the deadline to justify being seller's.

The AL Central is bad, so there's going to be some canibalization there unless Manfred starts authorizing ties.  I could see all of the non-Indians end up between 70 and 80.

 
TB Under 77.5 - That infield is just atrocious and I think Toronto, Yanks & Red Sox will hammer them in those 60 games.  Baltimore is competitive.  TB is the worst team in that division IMO and if you finish last you aren't approaching .500.

Miami Under 64.5 - Worst team easily in this division.  This rotation is one of the worst i have seen recently.  Can't see anyone showing up or them caring much about winning.  Mattingly is also good to blow some games they may have a chance to win.

Detroit Under 68.5 - Old, bad roster.  Terrible rotation.  Pen stinks.  Their everyday lineup seems awful when i look at it.  Cabrera looks like a corpse.  VMart actually may be one.  Those also seem like their two best players. 

 
Eephus said:
Tampa under 77.5 seems like a gimme since the line has probably moved since the fire sale.  I'm historically terrible at this which means the Rays will be in playoff contention until the final week of the season. 

I like Toronto over 81.  There's enough pitching there and I think they made some nice unheralded moves during the off-season.  They'll probably win 81 though and I'll regret the half win on the line.

Phillies over 75.5.  I think they're the second best team in a weak division.  The NL has some very bad teams which should help teams like Philadelphia who aren't tanking.  They also seem like an organization that would make deals to improve the big league team if they have a decent first half.
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That Phillies over is looking even better today

 
Posted this one in the FFA wagering thread....

under 213.5 hits 

altuve (2) is the only player to go over the past bunch of years and he needed 159 and 161 games to do it.

 
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