2022 Rookie Rankings Post NFL draft - pick 2.07 (CLOSED) (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Link to the previous poll:

2022 Rookie Rankings Post NFL draft - pick 2.06

Standard Scoring

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (78%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (79%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (32%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (36%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (52%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (48%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (59%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (35%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (26%)

1.10  WR Christian Watson, GB (33%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (27%)

1.12  WR George Pickens, PIT (33%)

2.01 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (33%)

2.02 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (30%)

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (30%)

2.04 RB Rachaad White, TB (30%)

2.05 WR David Bell, CLE (24%)

2.06 RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (30%)

PPR Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (86%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (65%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (35%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (49%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (51%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (47%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (81%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (63%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (28%)

1.10  WR Christian Watson, GB (43%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (38%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (55%)

2.01 WR Alec Pierce, IND (31%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (28%)

2.03 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (40%)

2.04 RB Rachaad White, TB (34%)

2.05 WR David Bell, CLE (39%)

2.06 RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (23%)

Superflex Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (66%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (59%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (19%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (27%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (36%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (41%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (37%)

1.08 QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (35%)

1.09 WR Skyy Moore, KC (34%)

1.10 RB James Cook, BUF (37%)

1.11 WR Christian Watson, GB (29%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (24%)

2.01 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (37%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (14%) 

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (18%)

2.04 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (23%)

2.05 QB Malik Willis, TEN (20%)

2.06 RB Rachaad White, TB (23%)

TE Premium Scoring 

1.01 RB Breece Hall, NYJ (74%)

1.02 RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (57%)

1.03 WR Drake London, ATL (31%)

1.04 WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (31%)

1.05 WR Jameson Williams, DET (41%)

1.06 WR Treylon Burks, TEN (38%)

1.07 WR Chris Olave, NO (58%)

1.08 WR Skyy Moore, KC (40%)

1.09 RB James Cook, BUF (24%)

1.10 WR Christian Watson, GB (29%)

1.11 WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (18%)

1.12 WR George Pickens, PIT (33%)

2.01 TE Trey McBride, ARZ (22%)

2.02 RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (20%)

2.03 WR Alec Pierce, IND (26%)

2.04 RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (28%)

2.05 RB Rachaad White, TB (31%)

2.06 RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (23%)

 

[rockaction]

Went Brian Robinson again. 

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Zamir White for me over Robinson but not by much. Both have strong enough profiles (cribbing off of others)  to be lead backs at some point and both backing up RB1s. I think Antonio Gibson still hast two years left on his rookie deal though and McKissic just signed a 2 year deal. Obviously talent> situation in dynasty but in this case, feels like a tiebreaker for me. 

 

[foxco]

White, White, Bell, Bell.

Had to think about White over Robinson, very close.

 

[bostonfred]

Obviously talent> situation in dynasty but in this case, feels like a tiebreaker for me.

Talent isn't linear.  There's a clear difference in talent between the guys taken in the top 50 or so picks at rb vs guys who aren't, but after that there's very little difference in the "amount" of talent.  It's more the kind of talent. 

Sometimes teams draft a player to play a role.  Sometimes they draft them to compete with the starter. Sometimes they just need depth.  Case in point, nobody thinks bailey zappe is competing with Mac Jones for the Patriots starting job. The consensus is that James Cook was drafted more as a pass catcher than anything else, and their attempt to sign mckissick this offseason followed by drafting an undersized rb known for his receiving skills seems to support that.  

Is cook, drafted in the late second, more talented than Davis-Price, who was drafted in the third?   I don't think that's even a meaningful conversation.  They're totally different players.  There were more guys who could do what Davis-Price can do than guys who can do what cook can do, and buffalo wanted a guy who can catch, so they took him before the well went dry.  

There are a handful of guys who are a level up in terms of talent and can either do it all, or do a few things so well that teams draft specialists to pair with them. After that, it gets a lot murkier. 

If we know what kind of role a guy is drafted for, it doesn't matter whether they're "better" or "more talented" than another guy on the team who plays the same position but plays a different role.  You don't say that "the cream rises to the top" because Nyheim Hines is the pass catching back, because he's clearly not the "most talented" running back on the team.  

Drafting a jag (and i hate that term because it lacks all nuance) solely because you think he's "more talented" than another jag, is bad process.  If they're both competing for starting jobs, or for the receiving roles in their respective offenses, then maybe it's relevant.  Otherwise what matters is whether they're good compared with their teammates.  And that includes current and future teammates.  

This is why i think Rachaad White is getting overdrafted. He might have a 3 down skillset, but if he doesn't get a chance to start until fournette is gone, then you're going to have an uncomfortable offseason hoping they don't draft someone better.  Even if the current GM thinks they're grooming a future starter, they may change GMs, or coaches, or just need a warm body at running back when Fournette is gone and draft competition for him, or see a generational talent slip to them in an upcoming draft, and the cream never makes it to the top.  

Talent > opportunity when you're talking about breece vs allgeier, but opportunity > talent when you're talking about the big tier of running backs below. Even in dynasty.  

 

[Catbird]

I like and largely agree with this, but you also have to consider that the value of a starting 3rd down back usually isn't anywhere near the value of a starting lead back. White is getting drafted almost as high as Cook because while he may be less likely to reach the starting lead back role than Cook is the Bills' 3rd down role, White becomes a game changer if he surpasses Fournette (by injury or talent) while Cook (unless he reaches the lead role he seems less suited for) is more of a bye week or at best a flex option. But maybe using those 2 guys clouds the water. Another example is Chubb/Hunt. Both are very good at what they do. Chubb is worth far more, though, because what he does is worth more.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I like and largely agree with this, but you also have to consider that the value of a starting 3rd down back usually isn't anywhere near the value of a starting lead back. White is getting drafted almost as high as Cook because while he may be less likely to reach the starting lead back role than Cook is the Bills' 3rd down role, White becomes a game changer if he surpasses Fournette (by injury or talent) while Cook (unless he reaches the lead role he seems less suited for) is more of a bye week or at best a flex option. But maybe using those 2 guys clouds the water. Another example is Chubb/Hunt. Both are very good at what they do. Chubb is worth far more, though, because what he does is worth more.

Not that I'm convinced it's toing to happen-- but there were some "could be a 10-12 carries/6 targets kinda guy" vibes on the Cook hype train. He's stealing some of JA's ceiling if this becomes a thing but it seems as if they intended to develop this ability, as a team. It'll be interesting to see how much they go in this direction. 

 

[Catbird]

Agreed. Huge unknowns on how the Singletary/Cook/future picks scenario will play out.

 

[nirad3]

Call me kookoo but I'm going with McBride in standard and PPR.  Allgeier since he's still there in SF, though... and Pickett in TE-P.

 

[TripItUp]

McBride and Metchie for me here.

 

[bostonfred]

I like and largely agree with this, but you also have to consider that the value of a starting 3rd down back usually isn't anywhere near the value of a starting lead back. White is getting drafted almost as high as Cook because while he may be less likely to reach the starting lead back role than Cook is the Bills' 3rd down role, White becomes a game changer if he surpasses Fournette (by injury or talent) while Cook (unless he reaches the lead role he seems less suited for) is more of a bye week or at best a flex option. But maybe using those 2 guys clouds the water. Another example is Chubb/Hunt. Both are very good at what they do. Chubb is worth far more, though, because what he does is worth more.

I agree that a small chance at a big prize can be worth more than a big chance at a small prize, but it's an interesting math exercise. 

All else being equal, a 10 percent chance that my second round rookie pick scores 300 points a year is worth a lot more than a 30 percent chance that he scores 100 a year. Adjusting for ADP, if a replacement level player scores 150 a year, then a 10 percent chance of 300 vs a 30 percent chance of 200 would be a better comparison. And even then i think you'd take the chance at 300. 

It's not that clear though.  Rachaad is probably a backup, might earn 3rd down reps, might get a chance to start someday and fail, or might get a chance and be a stud. All in all he's got a good chance of being dead weight, a decent chance of being a spot starter, and a small chance at being a star. It's not all or nothing.  

It's also probably two years before you get to find out. Are you going to use a roster spot through 2024 in the hopes that fournette leaves and the bucs don't draft a better starter?   What's the opportunity cost of that roster spot?

It's also possible that Allgeier is better than you think.  Late round rb picks emerge almost every year.  He's been a capable receiver on dump offs and screens, maybe he can run other routes.  He's working with a coach who helped make a physical running back elite..  I'm not comparing allgeier to Henry, but there is a chance that allgeier improves in the NFL. He played linebacker for a year and credits that with making him understand what defenses are trying to do to the run game - maybe he'll take another step forward with good coaching.  I'm not saying he's a stud, but I am saying that he has some potential to become one. Guys can emerge but they need reps and they need opportunity to get reps.  And if he doesn't emerge, then it's pretty easy to move on without using a roster spot on him forever.  

If you're just comparing high upside with low upside then yeah, i get taking Rachaad.  But it's more complicated than that, and on balance i think it's pretty clear that the low upside guy deserves more love.  

I'd probably take zamir, Robinson and maybe even Davis-Price ahead of Rachaad too.  

@Biabreakable

 

[Faust]

The discussion and comments added from @rockaction @greenmountaingoat  @foxco @bostonfred  @Catbird @nirad3 and @TripItUp are appreciated.

 

[Faust]

Keep those votes coming in.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree that a small chance at a big prize can be worth more than a big chance at a small prize, but it's an interesting math exercise. 

All else being equal, a 10 percent chance that my second round rookie pick scores 300 points a year is worth a lot more than a 30 percent chance that he scores 100 a year. Adjusting for ADP, if a replacement level player scores 150 a year, then a 10 percent chance of 300 vs a 30 percent chance of 200 would be a better comparison. And even then i think you'd take the chance at 300. 

It's not that clear though.  Rachaad is probably a backup, might earn 3rd down reps, might get a chance to start someday and fail, or might get a chance and be a stud. All in all he's got a good chance of being dead weight, a decent chance of being a spot starter, and a small chance at being a star. It's not all or nothing.  

It's also probably two years before you get to find out. Are you going to use a roster spot through 2024 in the hopes that fournette leaves and the bucs don't draft a better starter?   What's the opportunity cost of that roster spot?

It's also possible that Allgeier is better than you think.  Late round rb picks emerge almost every year.  He's been a capable receiver on dump offs and screens, maybe he can run other routes.  He's working with a coach who helped make a physical running back elite..  I'm not comparing allgeier to Henry, but there is a chance that allgeier improves in the NFL. He played linebacker for a year and credits that with making him understand what defenses are trying to do to the run game - maybe he'll take another step forward with good coaching.  I'm not saying he's a stud, but I am saying that he has some potential to become one. Guys can emerge but they need reps and they need opportunity to get reps.  And if he doesn't emerge, then it's pretty easy to move on without using a roster spot on him forever.  

If you're just comparing high upside with low upside then yeah, i get taking Rachaad.  But it's more complicated than that, and on balance i think it's pretty clear that the low upside guy deserves more love.  

I'd probably take zamir, Robinson and maybe even Davis-Price ahead of Rachaad too.  

@Biabreakable

Now maybe I should watch these RB more than I have but for the most part I consider all of them To be replacement level players. Not that a player like this can't be useful given enough opportunity. But I have been voting for Picket who is at least a 1st round pick who almost surely will get opportunity.

Waiting 2 years for a RB to get their shot doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Too much can change in that amount of time as you point out. 2 years from now I don't want to still be wondering what I have or if I have anything.

The opportunity cost of clogging up a roster spot that long could be 6 or more pick ups of players over that time frame  I would rather trade the pick for picks in the future and keep that roster spot open 

Since we can't do that for the purpose of these polls give me the QB who I can at least evaluate because he will be playing.

I do kind of like Zamir White who is getting votes in this poll. He has good pad level, footwork and vision. He is also blocked for playing time as well though.

 

[bostonfred]

Now maybe I should watch these RB more than I have but for the most part I consider all of them To be replacement level players. Not that a player like this can't be useful given enough opportunity. But I have been voting for Picket who is at least a 1st round pick who almost surely will get opportunity.

Waiting 2 years for a RB to get their shot doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Too much can change in that amount of time as you point out. 2 years from now I don't want to still be wondering what I have or if I have anything.

The opportunity cost of clogging up a roster spot that long could be 6 or more pick ups of players over that time frame  I would rather trade the pick for picks in the future and keep that roster spot open 

Since we can't do that for the purpose of these polls give me the QB who I can at least evaluate because he will be playing.

I do kind of like Zamir White who is getting votes in this poll. He has good pad level, footwork and vision. He is also blocked for playing time as well though.

Yup that's my point exactly - these guys are all in the same tier pretty much talent wise, so next you separate them by opportunity, then by talent as a tiebreaker. 

Tier 1 breece, kw3. Maybe Cook

Tier 2 looks something like

pierce - competing with mack for the starting job.  If he's good enough he has the skillset to be a feature back.

allgeier - direct path to early down work and could get some dump offs. The better he plays the more he can push Cordarelle to a third down rb/ complementary role.  

zamir - competing with jacobs and co for a role. Could win the starting job in a McDaniels committee as soon as this year.  

Tier 2b 

Spiller - stuck behind ekeler but might get the early down work and gradually phase out ekeler if he's good, but probably won't happen right away.  

Robinson- stuck in a committee with Gibson and mckissick but could take over Gibson's job if they like him enough.   

Tier 2c

Rachaad - is stuck behind fournette and unlikely to take over the job without an injury or waiting until fournette is gone in 1-2 years and hoping nobody else gets drafted

I get ordering them differently within each tier or even moving guys between tier 2b and 2a (or even moving cook diwn to 2a) but i think this is generally the right process. 

 

[Faust]

I should have time to post the next poll later today.  I was hoping to see this one get to 45+ votes before closing it.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

White across the board for me.  Reverting from Ridder back to White in SF was my toughest call.

Fairly open path to a meaningful 2023 gig.   Also thought I heard the Raiders might be trending towards a committee and White was more than holding his own in OTAs, so a 2022 path to relevance might be there without a Jacobs injury.  Seems like a fair value at the 2.07 in this draft.  Bell or Wan'Dale might be better "on base" plays in 1/2 PPR+, but drafting for the upside of a top Raiders RB here.   

 

[-OZ-]

The only vote I feel remotely confident in is Riddler in SF here. 

 

[Faust]

Closed.