#3 pick is a headache this year (1 Viewer)

[RICK ROMO]

12 team PPR league

all TD's are 6 pts--passing, running, receiving

Peterson and MJD should and probably will go 1 & 2

no one wants to male a trade so I have the 3rd pick

Who do I choos?

Sjax--when he on the field he is a beast and produces #1 pts but he is hurt often.

LT--I think he will have a great year but am a little gun shy.

Gore--I like him and he could put up 06' numbers but never seems to get in the endzone much.

Brady--would you dare take a QB at the 3 spot but with all TD's 6 pts he might be worth it.

I haven't done any mocks yet but will start soon. Anyone have any input from what they have picked at 3 or seen happening in mocks?

 

[massraider]

Forte is the consensus.

 

[jah2707]

well my draft just got changed to ppr but it is only 1/2 point per reception. I am thinking allot about forte.

 

[Instinctive]

Steven Jackson easily.

Just like all the other guys who have "injury problems" (like Fred Taylor) it isn't that the guy is fragile. H ejust got unlucky, maybe he didnt strecth long enough a game or two or whatever.

He is best option on a team with a coach who will want to run often. And situation absolutely cannot get worse. Only can go up from where he is.

 

[RICK ROMO]

I have thought about Forte but will they be passing more with Cutler and if they are will that open up more running lanes for Forte? Will he bounce this year and have a sophmore slump? I haven't looked at their schedule yet to see what it looks like. Forte was steady last year if not spectacular but can he improve on what he did last year?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

If I were making that pick right this second it'd be Gore.

Also don't post "who do I choose" threads.

 

[MNTom]

Micheal Turner. He may not get as many receptions but I think his TD numbers will be at least 6 more than any of the others mentioned.

 

[ajopiela]

Go with LT....don't overthink it

SD is going to have a monster year this year. They have a cupcake schedule...and the AFC west looks like crap

 

[Todem]

12 team PPR league all TD's are 6 pts--passing, running, receivingPeterson and MJD should and probably will go 1 & 2no one wants to male a trade so I have the 3rd pickWho do I choos?Sjax--when he on the field he is a beast and produces #1 pts but he is hurt often.LT--I think he will have a great year but am a little gun shy.Gore--I like him and he could put up 06' numbers but never seems to get in the endzone much.Brady--would you dare take a QB at the 3 spot but with all TD's 6 pts he might be worth it.I haven't done any mocks yet but will start soon. Anyone have any input from what they have picked at 3 or seen happening in mocks?

BreesAJCJ3Flip a coin......tell you what though when you have all TD's 6 points...Brees is one of the top's along with Brady. However when picking from the top of the draft I rather lock up my RB or WR there. It's a long way till you pick again.CJ3 or AJ is my pick there.

 

[RICK ROMO]

If I were making that pick right this second it'd be Gore.Also don't post "who do I choose" threads.

I guess your right. That is a question you ask in another forum. There seems to be a different opionion from every poster. I knew it was going to be a tought decision. Right now i am leaning towards either Sjax, LT, or Brady/Brees.

 

[Conquering Heroes]

I'm in a league with same scoring. AVT has the following:

Rnk Pos

1 RB1

2 RB2

3 RB3

4 RB4

5 REC1

6 QB1

7 RB5

8 REC2

9 QB2

10 REC3

11 REC4

12 RB6

So it looks like Forte or Steven Jackson would be the choice. Jackson has a better Playoff schedule.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I can't believe Forte is going at #3...

 

[rocketsauce]

As last year's #2 RB in PPR scoring -- why is it so hard to believe? Everything has changed for the better. Easier schedule, better QB play, better offensive line.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

As last year's #2 RB in PPR scoring -- why is it so hard to believe?

Talent.

 

[dollar demons]

What is so difficult. Lets not over think. Turner is a no brainer here. Pt per reception or not. His TD's will more than make up for his lack of catches.

Forte is the only other player worth considering at number three.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Forte is the only other player worth considering at number three.

Or LT, or SJax, or Brady, or Brees, or Turner, maybe Gore...

I am SO glad I drew a late pick this year.

 

[Instinctive]

Turner didn't do much against good run defenses though.

Now, he did absolutely shred the bad run defenses, but he wasn't exactly consistent and I don't want to be the guy praying for a short TD to save the day for my RB1.

Steven Jackson plays in the division with the worst defenses (funny, the AFC West is also the worst for that conference...) on a team that will be forced to feed him the ball. The entire offense goes through him.

Steven Jackson in this pick. Especially in PPR, because when that line fails in pass protection (LT is a rookie, run block is much much easier to pick up than pass blocking) Bulger checks to his RB, not his TE. And they lack a strong receiving corps.

I want to pick later than 3 if this many people think Steven Jackson should fall.

 

[dollar demons]

Steven Jackson has finished in the top ten RB's once in career. It is amazing to me the love that he is getting. At best end of first round early second. To many factors against him.

Like I said earlier, Turner all day with Forte being the next option

 

[Getinthemix]

As last year's #2 RB in PPR scoring -- why is it so hard to believe?

Talent.

Sonny knows things

 

[Christo]

PPR - Fitzgerald

 

[flranger]

As last year's #2 RB in PPR scoring -- why is it so hard to believe?

Talent.

amen

 

[Instinctive]

Steven Jackson has finished in the top ten RB's once in career. It is amazing to me the love that he is getting. At best end of first round early second. To many factors against him.Like I said earlier, Turner all day with Forte being the next option

Steven Jackson has been top 15 4 times, as well as rushing for 1000 yards each of the past 4 seasons in spite of missing 8 games the past 2 years.I don't understand how you cannot respect his talent and notice that he has been top 5 in PPG each of the past 4 seasons on a team that got worse and worse and worse. Hi ssituation hit rock bottom last year and he still averaged (don;t quote me, diff leagues, diff scoring) 17 points per game!!!Tell me one reason not to pick him, and then tell me who you take before him.

 

[sholditch]

Steven Jackson easily.Just like all the other guys who have "injury problems" (like Fred Taylor) it isn't that the guy is fragile. H ejust got unlucky, maybe he didnt strecth long enough a game or two or whatever.He is best option on a team with a coach who will want to run often. And situation absolutely cannot get worse. Only can go up from where he is.

please visit the "Why Sjax thread" He's been, at best, a mediocre, 4-5 round talent for two straight seasons. And missing 8 games in two years is not "bad luck."

 

[Christo]

Steven Jackson has finished in the top ten RB's once in career. It is amazing to me the love that he is getting. At best end of first round early second. To many factors against him.Like I said earlier, Turner all day with Forte being the next option

Steven Jackson has been top 15 4 times, as well as rushing for 1000 yards each of the past 4 seasons in spite of missing 8 games the past 2 years with serious injury.I don't understand how you cannot respect his talent and notice that he has been top 5 in PPG each of the past 4 seasons on a team that got worse and worse and worse. Hi ssituation hit rock bottom last year and he still averaged (don;t quote me, diff leagues, diff scoring) 17 points per game!!!Tell me one reason not to pick him, and then tell me who you take before him.

You said it: "missing 8 games the past 2 years with serious injury."Like I said, Fitzgerald

 

[chook]

Micheal Turner. He may not get as many receptions but I think his TD numbers will be at least 6 more than any of the others mentioned.

This ^

Also don't post "who do I choose" threads.

And this ^

 

[Carver Lee]

while there's been varying opinions on who the sure thing is at 3 is this year, I have to agree with the OP that the 3 spot is particularly rough this year. I can't give it away.

IMO just a bunch of interchangable guys which I'd gladly trade for better 2nd round position.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

PPR - Fitzgerald

That would be my pick too. Cant miss on that pick. No question marks. Lots of solid RB depth this year in the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is looking like a great year to go WR early.

 

[Instinctive]

PPR - Fitzgerald

That would be my pick too. Cant miss on that pick. No question marks. Lots of solid RB depth this year in the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is looking like a great year to go WR early.

Wouldnt you rather trade down to at least 6-8 range?

 

[gonzobill5]

PPR - Fitzgerald

That would be my pick too. Cant miss on that pick. No question marks. Lots of solid RB depth this year in the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is looking like a great year to go WR early.

I don't like the early Fitz pick. Not when there is a good chance Boldin is there with my 3rd pick (ADP = 26, though surely higher in ppr). We've seen over and over that these two guys have pretty equal impact when healthy. I think Boldin is the best value you'll find early in the draft again this year and with Warner's health somewhat questionable, drafting both guys seems risky.

 

[ipljeff]

PPR - Fitzgerald

That would be my pick too. Cant miss on that pick. No question marks. Lots of solid RB depth this year in the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is looking like a great year to go WR early.

I am also seriously warming up to this move. The RBs are so deep and question marks abound after ADP and MJD. This year I may not take an RB until 3.03 or later.

 

[Couch Potato]

As last year's #2 RB in PPR scoring -- why is it so hard to believe? Everything has changed for the better. Easier schedule, better QB play, better offensive line.

How about the fact that GM Angelo and OC Turner have stated they plan to reduce his workload as much as 25%, involving Kevin Jones much more this year now that he is healthy. People simply drafting off of last years numbers without keeping up with this year's news are doomed to fail.And don't go near SJax, an oft-injured player on one of the worst teams and OLs in the league. Not a recipe for lots of scores.In PPR Turner's value is reduced quite a bit.I'd be all over Gore in 2009. Lots of carries, lots of receptions, little time share, no one to steal goal line carries. All around top-3 in PPR redraft as I see it.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

PPR - Fitzgerald

That would be my pick too. Cant miss on that pick. No question marks. Lots of solid RB depth this year in the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is looking like a great year to go WR early.

I don't like the early Fitz pick. Not when there is a good chance Boldin is there with my 3rd pick (ADP = 26, though surely higher in ppr). We've seen over and over that these two guys have pretty equal impact when healthy. I think Boldin is the best value you'll find early in the draft again this year and with Warner's health somewhat questionable, drafting both guys seems risky.

I like Boldin in the 3rd round too. If thats your plan and you dont want both AZ guys then grab Calvin or AJ - or try to trade down to 6-8 as mentioned, but it sounds like there is no love for the 3 pick and a trade down is gonna be tough. Calvin put up mad numbers with Dan Orlovski at QB for much of last season. It can't get worse, right?I dont think I would trade Fitz straight up for SJax in a crappy offense with the recent injuries or an unproven Forte with a healthier Kevin Jones in the mix this season in a PPR league though. The thought of taking Forte with the 3rd pick overall makes me nauseous. Either one may prove to be the better pick at the end of the season, but the risk factors are far higher on either guy than they are on Fitz, and with the 1.3 I do not by any means want to put anything at risk. Gimme the proven sure thing. Especially this season with the RB depth. Ronnie Brown (maybe?), Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas, Addai, Bush, Moreno, Wells, McFadden, FWP, Portis, Kevin Smith, LJ, Lynch, D. Ward, Benson...all guys you can snag in the 3-5 rounds as viable starters.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

while there's been varying opinions on who the sure thing is at 3 is this year, I have to agree with the OP that the 3 spot is particularly rough this year. I can't give it away. IMO just a bunch of interchangable guys which I'd gladly trade for better 2nd round position.

Really? The whole premise of this thread kind of bugs me. Is it a "headache" just because there's no consensus after ADP and MJD? One or two of the guys getting pimped in here is going to finish Top 5, others aren't going to live up to their first-round draft slot. Their website rankings might be "interchangable" but isn't the fun part making your choice and (crossed fingers) making it correctly?

 

[Couch Potato]

while there's been varying opinions on who the sure thing is at 3 is this year, I have to agree with the OP that the 3 spot is particularly rough this year. I can't give it away. IMO just a bunch of interchangable guys which I'd gladly trade for better 2nd round position.

Really? The whole premise of this thread kind of bugs me. Is it a "headache" just because there's no consensus after ADP and MJD? One or two of the guys getting pimped in here is going to finish Top 5, others aren't going to live up to their first-round draft slot. Their website rankings might be "interchangable" but isn't the fun part making your choice and (crossed fingers) making it correctly?

Kudos to you for saying that. OP is basically saying it sucks that he has to make a determination rather than his choice being so obvious it's made for him. Excellent reply Hooligan.

 

[KellysHeroes]

AJ

 

[facook]

I absolutely WANT to be picking either 1-3 or 10-12 (12 teamer). You'll definitely end up with either 1 stud RB and 2 great WRs (1-3) or 2 stud WRs OR 1 very good RB and 1 stud WR (10-12). Maybe it's because I'm comfortable with any of a few guys at #3. (MJD, Jackson, Gore, Turner, DWil)

 

[Christo]

PPR - Fitzgerald

That would be my pick too. Cant miss on that pick. No question marks. Lots of solid RB depth this year in the 3rd and 4th rounds. This is looking like a great year to go WR early.

Wouldnt you rather trade down to at least 6-8 range?

no one wants to male a trade so I have the 3rd pickWho do I choos?

 

[Carver Lee]

while there's been varying opinions on who the sure thing is at 3 is this year, I have to agree with the OP that the 3 spot is particularly rough this year. I can't give it away. IMO just a bunch of interchangable guys which I'd gladly trade for better 2nd round position.

Really? The whole premise of this thread kind of bugs me. Is it a "headache" just because there's no consensus after ADP and MJD? One or two of the guys getting pimped in here is going to finish Top 5, others aren't going to live up to their first-round draft slot. Their website rankings might be "interchangable" but isn't the fun part making your choice and (crossed fingers) making it correctly?

Kudos to you for saying that. OP is basically saying it sucks that he has to make a determination rather than his choice being so obvious it's made for him. Excellent reply Hooligan.

Not exactly, it's simple draft theory. If you have players ABCDEF all ranked relatively the same would you takelayer A + the 18 pickor player F and the 13th pick?This thread just substantiates the fact that 3-8, and in IMO, 2-8 to 10 are almost completely interchangable.

 

[RICK ROMO]

Thanks for all the replies. I have it pretty much narrowed down to Fitz, Gore, Forte, or Jackson. No one was mentioning any QB's at all does everyone think taking a QB in the first rd @ 3 would be a bad pick? Even with scoring in my league @ TD's 6 pts and 1 pt every 3 completions and 1 pt every 25 yds passing. Just interested to hear if anyone is going QB in rd 1 that don't play in a 2 QB league.

 

[stickboy]

while there's been varying opinions on who the sure thing is at 3 is this year, I have to agree with the OP that the 3 spot is particularly rough this year. I can't give it away. IMO just a bunch of interchangable guys which I'd gladly trade for better 2nd round position.

Really? The whole premise of this thread kind of bugs me. Is it a "headache" just because there's no consensus after ADP and MJD? One or two of the guys getting pimped in here is going to finish Top 5, others aren't going to live up to their first-round draft slot. Their website rankings might be "interchangable" but isn't the fun part making your choice and (crossed fingers) making it correctly?

Kudos to you for saying that. OP is basically saying it sucks that he has to make a determination rather than his choice being so obvious it's made for him. Excellent reply Hooligan.

This was my takeaway also. The question is really at what position do I want either the top ranked player vs. the third ranked consensus RB? None of these players will be around when the snake winds around to the second pick, and in a PPR there will likely be a mix of QB, WR, and RB taken before the next pick.With this scoring system, where will you get the most differentiation against others? If you believe the Brady/Brees hype, then QB is the place to be with 6 pt TDs. If your league still goes crazy over RB, then your favorite PPR RB should be the logical choice. Fitzgerald/Moss are likely to be consistent big points and you can dominate that position.

 

[stickboy]

Thanks for all the replies. I have it pretty much narrowed down to Fitz, Gore, Forte, or Jackson. No one was mentioning any QB's at all does everyone think taking a QB in the first rd @ 3 would be a bad pick? Even with scoring in my league @ TD's 6 pts and 1 pt every 3 completions and 1 pt every 25 yds passing. Just interested to hear if anyone is going QB in rd 1 that don't play in a 2 QB league.

I would usually consider a QB, but it's the one pt per 3 completions that makes me hesitate. This seems to even out QB's quite a bit because yardage counts less and TD's/completions count a lot. Brady Quinn dumping off to Robiske and Cribbs may generate as many points as Brady with a couple of TDs.Chart last year's scoring against the scoring system and look at the slope of the lines. Where is the biggest fall off in terms of points?

 

[Tanner9919]

Forte is the consensus.

more rush yards now that Chicago has a legit QB - means less 8-man fronts

Forte does everything.

after that, I'd consider Brees at #3. he's healthy, runs the NFL's most prolific offense, and has a HC who is hell-bent on passing the ball like mad..great supporting cast, easy schedule.

has no known negatives or worries like you get with BRady ( knee) , Manning ( coaching staff), Rivers ( can he repeat), Sjax ( can he ever play a full 16-game schedule and can he come remotely close to his stats from 2006 ever again?)

if not Forte, I'd go Brees..

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

*Ahem* now that I actually got "stuck" with the 3rd pick in a (non-PPR) draft I'm thinking Tomlinson is the way to go.

 

[Banger]

I can't believe Forte is going at #3...

that's EXACTLY what I thought. I'd never take him there...maybe I'm missing the boat on him but I don't see it. I know there's a whole other thread on the topic so I don't want to veer this thread of course.

 

[Carver Lee]

*Ahem* now that I actually got "stuck" with the 3rd pick in a (non-PPR) draft I'm thinking Tomlinson is the way to go.

There's no value in LT here.. actually there's no value in anyone here, especially in non-ppr. good posting OP.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

FINE THEN I DRAFT NO ONE

 

[Bri]

Tomlinson if I couldn't trade down

I'd be fine with Forte but Tomlinson has been a great back for a long time and there's a comfort level that Jackson, Gore and others don't give.

 

[Manster]

personally, i would never draft a WR in round one unless i'm at the end. i'd go with SJAX or LT.

 

[Darko M]

12 team PPR league all TD's are 6 pts--passing, running, receivingPeterson and MJD should and probably will go 1 & 2no one wants to male a trade so I have the 3rd pickWho do I choos?Sjax--when he on the field he is a beast and produces #1 pts but he is hurt often.LT--I think he will have a great year but am a little gun shy.Gore--I like him and he could put up 06' numbers but never seems to get in the endzone much.Brady--would you dare take a QB at the 3 spot but with all TD's 6 pts he might be worth it.I haven't done any mocks yet but will start soon. Anyone have any input from what they have picked at 3 or seen happening in mocks?

Dare to take Brady? It's not a dare to take either Brees or Brady in a 6TD league - they are by far the safest picks of the 1st round. Brady going down in game 1 last year was a fluke, you can't predict something like that. 8 of 12 players selected in the first round of my draft last year didn't finish top 10 at their position.Take Brady or Brees and grab a solid back up... if Brady I'd grab someone with a cake week 8 game (Flacco plays Denver, Bulger @ Detroit, Trent Edward plays Houston).

 

[smitty7749]

Ok, so you take the RB you want at 3 (or whoever I guess), but what to do with your 2nd and 3rd pix? It looks like Jacobs, Barber, and P. Thomas are there, possibly Portis and Westbrook. That's a pretty good #2 RB to pair with your choice at pic 3. You could go WR with 3rd pick and have Boldin, Colston, Steve Smith type or some may like K. Warner there.

What are your thoughts options about building the team at the 2/3 turn, I am assuming taking a RB at pic 3.