Team Legacy
Footballguy
Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
Whose Mr Skip Hicks?Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
I'm not a Steelers fan, but I'm thinking of going with Parker at #3 on Sunday if LJ isn't signed by then. He's the most proven of the other non-LJ running backs there and is still on the upswing, I think.I have the third pick for a redraft, non-ppr league this sunday (26th) and i think i am going to stay as far away from LJ as i can. I just have a bad feeling about the whole situation. Mostly the heavy workload and bad OL and QB situations. However i was thinking about taking Willie Parker @ #3 behind LT and SJ (hopefully #2 pick goes Manning, start 2 qb league). Everyone on this topic that is going with Parker seems to be a Steelers fan, so i dont know if they are being homers or what. I just really like what i have seen from him so far and i expect big things this year.
What is this guy talking about re: Skip Hicks "blasting through those holes"?How does that relate to Larry Johnson?Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
He's saying to draft Gore over LJ. Maurice Hicks = Skip Hicks i guess.OneWhat is this guy talking about re: Skip Hicks "blasting through those holes"?How does that relate to Larry Johnson?Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
Ohhhhhh, Maurice Hicks. Yes, that makes a little more sense.But what Maurice Hicks really "blasting through those holes"? I haven't had a chance to see the 49ers play yet this preseason.One said:He's saying to draft Gore over LJ. Maurice Hicks = Skip Hicks i guess.bocksheesh said:What is this guy talking about re: Skip Hicks "blasting through those holes"?How does that relate to Larry Johnson?Team Legacy said:Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out.I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out.I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
You make very valid points and I would say this....if you take Gore at 3 I can easisly see that. He is borderline total stud. He just needs to get those TD's up.Addai is the safe pick...but I rather have LJ or Gore at 3.Good post though.Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out.I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.bocksheesh said:Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.Todem said:A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out.I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
A very fair point, to be sure.I would just counter by saying nearly the exact same argument was made last year with respect to Shaun Alexander. Now sure, Alexander got hurt. But for anyone watching him at the starts of the season BEFORE he got hurt, it was clear that he was headed for an off year.Was some of what happened with Alexander predictable in hindsight? It sure was. A depleted Offensive Line, a lot of carries the season before, an overall offense that was not what it was due to injuries.Applying a straight, blanket percentage discount on LJ's performance fails to take into account potential seismic shifts in factors that could impact his performance. I'm not saying they will, but they could.Conversely, a guy like Joe Addai is in a very safe situation - he's in a great offense that's going to be great again. He has a stud QB and WRs keeping defenses honest. He's going to get all the carries. He has a proven, very good offensive line, etc.I'm not saying that Addai is going to have a better season than LJ. I'm just saying that, barring injury, Addai's worst case scenario is not nearly as bad as LJ's. Then again, LJ's best case scenario is much better than Addai's.If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.bocksheesh said:Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
Injury is a scenario. He was beaten like one of Mike Vick's dogs last year. The PFP guys have been studying RB abuse for years. Guys with > 380 carries in a season tend to decline sharply and get hurt. See Shaun Alexander last year. Plus KC lost a HOF OL. Plus Brody Croyle is his QB. Addai was the #10 fantasy RB last year in normal leagues according to one of the roto putzes on ESPN. Assuming that is true there's no way he finishes outside of the Top 10 in a non-injury season either. Even if it isn't I don't see it. Has a fulltime Indy RB in the Manning era ever finished outside of the top 10?Your point about a declining LJ still being a stud is very good though. Personally, I'd draft Addai. It may be a reach but many things about LJ scare me, especially the number of carries that he had last year. Of course, I drafted Alexander #1 overall last year so I may be extra sensitive ;-)If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.
See the adjustments I made to your statement above. The 49'ers and Chiefs may be pretty similar this year. Though Alex Smith is probably a tad better than what the Chiefs will stroll out at QB. I'm not sure the O-lines are that much apart as far as talent. The defenses may even be similar too...lots of young talent or pro-bowlers.bocksheesh said:Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.Todem said:A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fum
More than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out.I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick.
What are your thoughts?
Thanks!
Then draft LJ.
And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore LJ is a huge part of the 49ers Chiefs offense but he does have DJackson Kennison (previous pro-bowler)/Bowe and Vernon Davis TG around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.
Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.
Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.
And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.
I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
I like how some people cite LJ's offensive line as a negative but ignore Tarik Glenn's retirement.Here are some questions for you.1. Which team will have more RB carries? Probably KC.2. Which RB will have a higher percentage of his team's RB carries? Probably LJ.3. Which team will have more RB rushing TDs? Probably KC.4. Which RB will have a higher ypc? Hard to say... if forced to guess, I'd say Addai.5. Which RB will have more rushing fantasy points? I think it is clearly LJ.6. Which team will have more RB receptions? Probably IND.7. Which RB will have a higher percentage of his team's RB receptions? Probably LJ.8. Which team will have more RB receiving TDs? Hard to say, no reason to predict one above the other.9. Which RB will have a higher ypr? Probably LJ.10. Which RB will have more receiving fantasy points? Probably Addai, but IMO it will be much closer than most people think.With regard to #10, note that KC RBs last year had 512/2 receiving, compared to 576/1 for IND RBs. Virtually identical fantasy numbers.I think it is clear the overall edge goes to LJ. This is the expected case. I think LJ wins best case, expected case, and worst case barring injury.A very fair point, to be sure.I would just counter by saying nearly the exact same argument was made last year with respect to Shaun Alexander. Now sure, Alexander got hurt. But for anyone watching him at the starts of the season BEFORE he got hurt, it was clear that he was headed for an off year.Was some of what happened with Alexander predictable in hindsight? It sure was. A depleted Offensive Line, a lot of carries the season before, an overall offense that was not what it was due to injuries.Applying a straight, blanket percentage discount on LJ's performance fails to take into account potential seismic shifts in factors that could impact his performance. I'm not saying they will, but they could.Conversely, a guy like Joe Addai is in a very safe situation - he's in a great offense that's going to be great again. He has a stud QB and WRs keeping defenses honest. He's going to get all the carries. He has a proven, very good offensive line, etc.I'm not saying that Addai is going to have a better season than LJ. I'm just saying that, barring injury, Addai's worst case scenario is not nearly as bad as LJ's. Then again, LJ's best case scenario is much better than Addai's.If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.bocksheesh said:Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
I don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.
I've got the 4 pick so will probably end up with Gore, but it sounds like you didn't see last year's awful preseason either. It was just as bad.FWIW: I don't think Croyle will be the starter when week 1 rolls around. He hard to watch. sheeshI don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.
Well, that is indeed one of the fundamental questions about LJ and the KC Offense.Did they look just as bad last preseason as they do now? And does that argue for LJ playing just as well despite the Chief's awful appearance?Or, as even Herm Edwards concedes, is their offense so ineffective now so as to be a real concern for LJ?To me, the real deadly factor for LJ in that KC offense is not purely that they look so bad. It's that they face a very stiff set of defenses in their first 4 out of 5 games - Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville. For a team that may struggle out of the gate and take a few weeks to find themselves and is reliant on their stud RB who hasn't played with the team all preseason, I just think that could be a hurdle they can't overcome.As I said previously: I want to take LJ, my gut tells me to just sack up and take LJ, but my brain is telling me to go with Gore who has a better situation, a better QB, WRs, and OLine, and a much softer schedule.Sigh.One said:I've got the 4 pick so will probably end up with Gore, but it sounds like you didn't see last year's awful preseason either. It was just as bad.bocksheesh said:I don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.
Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out.I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!