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3rd spot, Is it really LJ? (1 Viewer)

Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.

 
I'm 3rd in my redraft- no ppr - It has been Johnson/Gore the whole time for me.

The fact that Addai that high on lists just shows that there is enough Hype Flavored Kool-aid™ to go around for everybody. :( :lmao: :shrug:

 
Draft LJ in the 3rd 3rd 3rd 3rd....Let this be the end of it. Even if he doesnt play until Week 4, he'll probably still have the 3rd best Fantasy points out of all RB's. Come on guys.

 
I have the third pick for a redraft, non-ppr league this sunday (26th) and i think i am going to stay as far away from LJ as i can. I just have a bad feeling about the whole situation. Mostly the heavy workload and bad OL and QB situations. However i was thinking about taking Willie Parker @ #3 behind LT and SJ (hopefully #2 pick goes Manning, start 2 qb league). Everyone on this topic that is going with Parker seems to be a Steelers fan, so i dont know if they are being homers or what. I just really like what i have seen from him so far and i expect big things this year.
I'm not a Steelers fan, but I'm thinking of going with Parker at #3 on Sunday if LJ isn't signed by then. He's the most proven of the other non-LJ running backs there and is still on the upswing, I think.
 
Some little tidbits for the guys drafting today:

Pulled from an AP article on Priest Holmes yesterday: But with general manager Carl Peterson out of town -- reportedly attending to negotiations with holdout running back Larry Johnson, Holmes' status remained the same.

And this morning(no link) I was listening to 610 this morning and according to Ronda Moss LJ is now in the KC area. Id say this is a good sign CP got something done over the weekend.

 
Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
What is this guy talking about re: Skip Hicks "blasting through those holes"?How does that relate to Larry Johnson?
 
Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
What is this guy talking about re: Skip Hicks "blasting through those holes"?How does that relate to Larry Johnson?
He's saying to draft Gore over LJ. Maurice Hicks = Skip Hicks i guess.One :)
 
One said:
bocksheesh said:
Team Legacy said:
Did you see Mr. Skip hicks blasting through those holes the other night? I'm a 3 pick owner and this one is a no-brainer for me, especially with no contract in hand for LJ.
What is this guy talking about re: Skip Hicks "blasting through those holes"?How does that relate to Larry Johnson?
He's saying to draft Gore over LJ. Maurice Hicks = Skip Hicks i guess.
Ohhhhhh, Maurice Hicks. Yes, that makes a little more sense.But what Maurice Hicks really "blasting through those holes"? I haven't had a chance to see the 49ers play yet this preseason.
 
I have to say that I just watched the SF-OAK preseason game. I am a Gore fan, but I have to say I didn't see Maurice Hicks blowing through any holes nor the SF OLine getting a huge push on the ground.

If anything, the Raiders looked better running the ball.

Gut telling me to go with Gore, even if LJ signs his contract, but I'm not 100% sold as I can't tell if the 49er OLine is as good as I'd like them to be.

 
Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out. :lmao: I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.
 
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Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out. :goodposting: I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
 
Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out. :wall: I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
You make very valid points and I would say this....if you take Gore at 3 I can easisly see that. He is borderline total stud. He just needs to get those TD's up.Addai is the safe pick...but I rather have LJ or Gore at 3.Good post though.
 
bocksheesh said:
Todem said:
Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out. :lmao: I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?Then draft LJ.
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.
 
bocksheesh said:
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.
A very fair point, to be sure.I would just counter by saying nearly the exact same argument was made last year with respect to Shaun Alexander. Now sure, Alexander got hurt. But for anyone watching him at the starts of the season BEFORE he got hurt, it was clear that he was headed for an off year.Was some of what happened with Alexander predictable in hindsight? It sure was. A depleted Offensive Line, a lot of carries the season before, an overall offense that was not what it was due to injuries.Applying a straight, blanket percentage discount on LJ's performance fails to take into account potential seismic shifts in factors that could impact his performance. I'm not saying they will, but they could.Conversely, a guy like Joe Addai is in a very safe situation - he's in a great offense that's going to be great again. He has a stud QB and WRs keeping defenses honest. He's going to get all the carries. He has a proven, very good offensive line, etc.I'm not saying that Addai is going to have a better season than LJ. I'm just saying that, barring injury, Addai's worst case scenario is not nearly as bad as LJ's. Then again, LJ's best case scenario is much better than Addai's.
 
I will take LJ at the 10th spot - but I think he might be gone no later than the 3rd spot.

Actually, if I had the 2nd spot I would debate long and hard between LJ and Jackson...and I am a Rams fan.

 
If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.
Injury is a scenario. He was beaten like one of Mike Vick's dogs last year. The PFP guys have been studying RB abuse for years. Guys with > 380 carries in a season tend to decline sharply and get hurt. See Shaun Alexander last year. Plus KC lost a HOF OL. Plus Brody Croyle is his QB. Addai was the #10 fantasy RB last year in normal leagues according to one of the roto putzes on ESPN. Assuming that is true there's no way he finishes outside of the Top 10 in a non-injury season either. Even if it isn't I don't see it. Has a fulltime Indy RB in the Manning era ever finished outside of the top 10?Your point about a declining LJ still being a stud is very good though. Personally, I'd draft Addai. It may be a reach but many things about LJ scare me, especially the number of carries that he had last year. Of course, I drafted Alexander #1 overall last year so I may be extra sensitive ;-)
 
bocksheesh said:
Todem said:
Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fum

More than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out. :blackdot: I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks!
A resounding Yes!!!!The entire offense is based around LJ who is a Stallion and in the prime of his career. Do you want 2000 total yards 40-50 receptions and 15 TD's?

Then draft LJ.
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.

And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore LJ is a huge part of the 49ers Chiefs offense but he does have DJackson Kennison (previous pro-bowler)/Bowe and Vernon Davis TG around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.

Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.

Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.

And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.

I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
See the adjustments I made to your statement above. The 49'ers and Chiefs may be pretty similar this year. Though Alex Smith is probably a tad better than what the Chiefs will stroll out at QB. I'm not sure the O-lines are that much apart as far as talent. The defenses may even be similar too...lots of young talent or pro-bowlers.

 
bocksheesh said:
Unfortunately, I don't think it's quite that simple. I think it reall boils down to a question of balancing system versus talent in terms of LJ, Gore, and Addai.LJ is the most talented and proven RB of the three. Gore is, at this point, a shade less of a beast than LJ but is in a better offensive system. And Addai, to me, is clearly the least talented of the three RBs, but is unquestionably in the best offensive system.And then you have the fact that LJ, aside from Gonzo, is the Chiefs entire offense. Gore is a huge part of the 49ers offense but he does have DJackson and Vernon Davis around, and Addai is but one piece of several amazing offensive weapons.Honestly, I think Joe Addai is the safest pick of the three. If he gets all or the majority of carries in Indy, and with the schedule they're facing, I don't see how he doesn't get 1400 yds and 12 TDs. That's his floor. That's not incredible, but it's all but gauranteed.Gore, by virtue of his talent and the system he's playing in, has more upside than Addai, but with the injury concerns and the still yet to be proven 49er offense, it's not inconceivable that SF and/or Gore regresses this year.And LJ, if he plays to form, is a monster and the clear cut best of these three. BUT, LJ also has more question marks than either Gore or Addai.I wish at the #3 pick, one didn't have to weigh risk. It would hopefully be a no-brainer. But at this point, it's not. Sigh.
If LJ's production was cut by 20%, his numbers would have ranked as RB4 last season (FBG scoring). A 40% cut and he would have been RB9. I'll stop while you read that again.Do you really see any scenario other than injury in which LJ finishes out of the top 10? If so, I'd like to see you post and explain those projections. Can you say the same about Addai? That is, can you say there is no way Addai finishes out of the top 10? I don't think so. And it's obvious that LJ has higher upside; he has proven that on the field.I like Addai, but to suggest he is a safer pick than LJ is not justifiable IMO.
A very fair point, to be sure.I would just counter by saying nearly the exact same argument was made last year with respect to Shaun Alexander. Now sure, Alexander got hurt. But for anyone watching him at the starts of the season BEFORE he got hurt, it was clear that he was headed for an off year.Was some of what happened with Alexander predictable in hindsight? It sure was. A depleted Offensive Line, a lot of carries the season before, an overall offense that was not what it was due to injuries.Applying a straight, blanket percentage discount on LJ's performance fails to take into account potential seismic shifts in factors that could impact his performance. I'm not saying they will, but they could.Conversely, a guy like Joe Addai is in a very safe situation - he's in a great offense that's going to be great again. He has a stud QB and WRs keeping defenses honest. He's going to get all the carries. He has a proven, very good offensive line, etc.I'm not saying that Addai is going to have a better season than LJ. I'm just saying that, barring injury, Addai's worst case scenario is not nearly as bad as LJ's. Then again, LJ's best case scenario is much better than Addai's.
I like how some people cite LJ's offensive line as a negative but ignore Tarik Glenn's retirement.Here are some questions for you.1. Which team will have more RB carries? Probably KC.2. Which RB will have a higher percentage of his team's RB carries? Probably LJ.3. Which team will have more RB rushing TDs? Probably KC.4. Which RB will have a higher ypc? Hard to say... if forced to guess, I'd say Addai.5. Which RB will have more rushing fantasy points? I think it is clearly LJ.6. Which team will have more RB receptions? Probably IND.7. Which RB will have a higher percentage of his team's RB receptions? Probably LJ.8. Which team will have more RB receiving TDs? Hard to say, no reason to predict one above the other.9. Which RB will have a higher ypr? Probably LJ.10. Which RB will have more receiving fantasy points? Probably Addai, but IMO it will be much closer than most people think.With regard to #10, note that KC RBs last year had 512/2 receiving, compared to 576/1 for IND RBs. Virtually identical fantasy numbers.I think it is clear the overall edge goes to LJ. This is the expected case. I think LJ wins best case, expected case, and worst case barring injury. :football:
 
I don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.

And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.

The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.

I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.

 
Throw 20 red flags there about LJ and i cannot ignore them. Obvious that he and his superior talent are on an island at Arrowhead this year. Herm Edwards, Brody Croyle, that O-line, its extremely concerning.I have to take Gore with my #3 slot pick. Alex Smith has improved every month, the O-line is building.

I don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.
 
I don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.
I've got the 4 pick so will probably end up with Gore, but it sounds like you didn't see last year's awful preseason either. It was just as bad.FWIW: I don't think Croyle will be the starter when week 1 rolls around. He hard to watch. sheesh
 
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One said:
bocksheesh said:
I don't know how many people drafting from the #3 spot had a chance to watch the pivotal Week 3 KC-NO preseason game, but the Chiefs offense .... looked .... awful.And yes, it's just the preseason, and yes, LJ wasn't in there. But it's not exaggerating to say that the KC Offense looked like they couldn't do a thing. And that was facing the NO Saints Defense which is not exactly stiff.The Offensive Line was a seive, Brodie Croyle was horrendous, Damien Huard is still out hurt, and they could do nothing.I like Larry Johnson. I want to draft Larry Johnson. But I'm thinking long and hard about it right now. And I'm moving away from him, not towards him.
I've got the 4 pick so will probably end up with Gore, but it sounds like you didn't see last year's awful preseason either. It was just as bad.
Well, that is indeed one of the fundamental questions about LJ and the KC Offense.Did they look just as bad last preseason as they do now? And does that argue for LJ playing just as well despite the Chief's awful appearance?Or, as even Herm Edwards concedes, is their offense so ineffective now so as to be a real concern for LJ?To me, the real deadly factor for LJ in that KC offense is not purely that they look so bad. It's that they face a very stiff set of defenses in their first 4 out of 5 games - Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville. For a team that may struggle out of the gate and take a few weeks to find themselves and is reliant on their stud RB who hasn't played with the team all preseason, I just think that could be a hurdle they can't overcome.As I said previously: I want to take LJ, my gut tells me to just sack up and take LJ, but my brain is telling me to go with Gore who has a better situation, a better QB, WRs, and OLine, and a much softer schedule.Sigh.
 
i think it really is just a simple risk assesment. he hasn't missed much time, the team was pretty abissmal last year, and you know he will get touches.i think his history makes him hte safe pick, but gore sure is the sexy pick mr "i want dickersons record" you gotta love that.i like westbrook but he has issues staying healthy, and LJ looks like a tankand with my scoring system he wins the risk factor at the number 3 spot. still doesn't mean i like drafting him . . .i would actually try and trade down to the end of the first round and take someones 4th or 5th round pick. but thats me

Ok I have the thrid spot in a 12 team re-draft. RB gets 1/10 Ruyd , 1/10 Recyd, 0.5/recp, 6/TD and -1 for fumMore than likely LT goes 1 followed by SJ. Is LJ really the pick here? I know he should be but with a new QB and line problems plus the possibilty of a hold out. :wall: I don't draft until the last weekend in August so I should know more about the hold out. Was thinking Gore until he broke his hand. Addai and Westbrook are my other choices or am I missing someone? I really starting to not like the 3rd pick. What are your thoughts?Thanks!
 
I'm drafting 3rd tomorrow and just offered my 1 & 2 to anyone drafting later who wants to move into my slot those two rounds. I'd then go back to picking 3rd in round 3. I'm in a .5 PPR (for RBs & WRs) league and I would feel much better drafting in the 8-10 range and getting a guy like Westbrook or Bush, then having an earlier pick in the 2nd to grab RB2 or a stud WR - then Gates (1PPR for TEs) or another stud WR at 3.3.

If nobody bites I'll probably go with LJ though and hope for the best.

eta: so far I have an offer from the guy in the 7 hole to swap 1 and 2's - so I'd have 1.7, 2.6 and 3.3. Any opinions on this strategy?

 
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Had my draft a couple days ago: 1ppr 1/2/3/1/1

1.1 LT

1.2 S-Jax

1.3 LJ Now, I realize that in a 1ppr league that LJ is not the consensus here. In fact, draft dominator advised me to take Bush, but I cannot and would not overlook just how good he was last year. I realize that he lost Shields and that he had an absurd number of carries, but I don't think those are compelling arguments to move someone who has never done it over him. There are three guys who are young, have proven they can carry the full load and they should go 1,2,3 IMO

1.4 Peyton (bad pick there)

1.5 Alexander

1.6 Gore

1.7 Addai (this PO'd me just a tad, cause the Peyton pick pushed these guys down a slot and I didn't benefit, but what are you going to do?)

1.8 Westbrook

1.9 Johnson (too high in a PPR for my liking)

1.10 Parker

1.11 Bush

1.12 McGahee

2.01 Benson (Think it might be a long year for the guy in the 12 spot)

2.02 Maroney (Good pairing with Bush)

2.03 Ronnie Brown

2.04 Travis Henry

2.05 Steve Smith

2.06 Harrison

2.07 Holt

2.08 Chad Johnson (There is a WR run in the middle of round two here. This may make the end of round one the place to be to lock up two good RB's in a 12 man league)

2.09 MJD (Damn, I was salivating seeing him sitting there)

2.10 Terrell Owens I wanted MJD bad, but after this didn't see another RB that would make up for missing out on one of the big seven WRs

2.11 Tom Brady

2.12 Brandon Jacobs (This is why I really didn't want to reach for a RB)

3.01 Carson Palmer

3.02 Edge

3.03 Reggie Wayne I was all set to go with Gates here, but Wayne was still on the board. I couldn't pass up pairing Owens with Wayne in a start 3WR league. Secondly, the RB's don't do it for me. I think that if a RB doesn't slip to 2.10, the third pick lends itself really well to going WR-WR or WR-Gates.

3.04 Portis

3.05 Gates

3.06 Thomas Jones (Interestingly, the three other guys I would have taken went right after I took Wayne)

3.07 Brees

3.08 Fitzgerald

3.09 Bulger

3.10 Hoosh

3.11 Colston

3.12 Rivers (Too high for my liking)

4.01 Boldin

4.02 Roy Williams

4.03 Lee Evans

4.04 T. Gonzalez (3 years ago maybe)

4.05 McNabb

4.06 Deuce Mcallister

4.07 Andre Johnson

4.08 Cadillac Williams

4.09 Javon Walker

4.10 Adrian Peterson Initially I was flirting with the idea of taking Evans, Johnson or Walker, but they got picked just before me. In hind sight, this was probably a good thing because I needed to try to find a RB2.

4.11 R Moss (Sucked in by the name I bet)

4.12 Driver

5.01 Ward

5.02 Burress

5.03 Marshawn Lynch Quite possibly the least favorite pick I made. I was thinking about taking Ahman here, but thought there was a good chance I could get him in the sixth. My RB depth scared me a little and I actually thought to myself, at least 1 or 2 rookie RB's finish with good years it seems, why not try to grab both of them and just hope one hits.

5.04 Calvin Johnson

5.05 Vince Young

5.06 Lav Coles

5.07 Reggie Brown

5.08 Santana Moss

5.09 Deion Branch

5.10 Braylon Edwards

5.11 Jamal Lewis

5.12 Isaac Bruce

The other picks, I got in at the beginning of the TE run in the sixth, snagging Winslow, after Ahman went two picks before me, then grabbed Chambers after Cotchery went two picks before me. Grabbed Lamont Jordan in the eighth, then the FBG darling boy Rothlesburger in the ninth. Before I took Big Ben there was a span of 31 picks in which only one other QB (Romo) was drafted. Was very glad I waited until the guys who I wanted for my QBBC, Leinart and Cutler went before me and I was left taking Alex Smith. Even worse, I screwed up and didn't realize that Ben and Smith had the same bye weeks. Afc North and NFC West, who would've thunk it? 11th round was Chris Brown (thanks to FBG), 12th was Ron Curry ( I always seem to take this guy :thumbup: ) 13 was Jason Campbell to cover my bye week problem (Maybe A. Smith will have a big game and I can trade him, otherwise Campbell is cut week 7) 14th was Elam, 15th was Detroit D (they play Oakland week 1)

 
I went with LJ over Bush as well, the dominator is off on this one.

1ppr 1/1/1/1/1/1 (3flex)

10yds rush/rec = 1pt

TDs = 6pts

My first five in order:

LJ

S. Smith

M. Harrison

A. Gates

C. Portis :thumbup:

T. Jones

 
I took LJ at #3 in my 12 team league last night. Here is how it played out for my first 4 picks:

LJ

Harrison

Holt

Portis :popcorn:

I am very happy with this core of studs.

 

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