3rd year WR BREAKOUT -heading into 2009... (1 Viewer)

[comfortably numb]

Whether you are a believer of the 3rd year BREAKOUT WR theory or not, here is the drafted list of WR's heading into year 3.

Followed by last years list of WR's on year 3.

Do you subscribe to theory at all, some, none at all?

If so, who do you like?

Seems like quite a few names with the potential heading into 09.

Calvin Johnson	WR	GEORGIA TECH	1	2(2)	Detroit Ted Ginn, Jr.	WR	OHIO STATE	1	9(9)	Miami Dwayne Bowe	WR	LSU	1	23(23)	Kansas City Robert Meachem	WR	TENNESSEE	1	27(27)	New Orleans Craig Davis	WR	LSU	1	30(30)	San Diego Anthony Gonzalez	WR	OHIO STATE	1	32(32)	Indianapolis Sidney Rice	WR	SOUTH CAROLINA	2	12(44)	Minnesota Dwayne Jarrett	WR	USC	2	13(45)	Carolina Steve Smith	WR	USC	2	19(51)	New York Jacoby Jones	WR	LANE	3	9(73)	Houston Yamon Figurs	WR	KANSAS STATE	3	10(74)	Baltimore Laurent Robinson	WR	ILLINOIS STATE	3	11(75)	Atlanta Jason Hill	WR	WASHINGTON STATE	3	12(76)	San Francisco James Jones	WR	SAN JOSE STATE	3	14(78)	Green Bay Mike Walker	WR	CENTRAL FLORIDA	3	15(79)	Jacksonville Paul Williams	WR	FRESNO STATE	3	16(80)	Tennessee Johnnie Lee Higgins	WR	UTEP	3	35(99)	Oakland Ryne Robinson	WR	MIAMI (OHIO)	4	19(118)	Carolina Chris Davis	WR	FLORIDA STATE	4	29(128)	Tennessee Steve Breaston	WR	MICHIGAN	5	5(142)	Arizona Aundrae Allison	WR	EAST CAROLINA	5	9(146)	Minnesota David Clowney	WR	VIRGINIA TECH	5	20(157)	Green Bay Roy Hall	WR	OHIO STATE	5	32(169)	Indianapolis Legedu Naanee	WR	BOISE STATE	5	35(172)	San Diego Joel Filani	WR	TEXAS TECH	6	14(188)	Tennessee Courtney Taylor	WR	AUBURN	6	23(197)	Seattle Jordan Kent	WR	OREGON	6	36(210)	Seattle Dallas Baker	WR	FLORIDA INTL	7	17(227)	Pittsburgh John Broussard	WR	SAN JOSE STATE	7	19(229)	Jacksonville Chandler Williams	WR	FLORIDA INTL	7	23(233)	Minnesota Syndric Steptoe	WR	ARIZONA	7	24(234)	Cleveland Chansi Stuckey	WR	CLEMSON	7	25(235)	New York Derek Stanley	WR	WISCONSIN WHITEWATER	7	39(249)	St. Louis Johnathan Holland	WR	LOUISIANA TECH	7	44(254)	Oakland

WR's who entered 2008 in year 3

[b]Santonio Holmes	WR	OHIO STATE	1	25(25)	Pittsburgh[/b] Chad Jackson	WR	FLORIDA	2	4(36)	New England Sinorice Moss	WR	MIAMI (FLA.)	2	12(44)	New York [b]Greg Jennings	WR	WESTERN MICHIGAN	2	20(52)	Green Bay[/b] Travis Wilson	WR	OKLAHOMA	3	14(78)	Cleveland Derek Hagan	WR	ARIZONA STATE	3	18(82)	Miami Brandon Williams	WR	WISCONSIN	3	20(84)	San Francisco Maurice Stovall	WR	NOTRE DAME	3	26(90)	Tampa Bay Michael Robinson	RB	PENN STATE	4	3(100)	San Francisco Brad Smith	WR	MISSOURI	4	6(103)	New York Cory Rodgers	WR	TCU	4	7(104)	Green Bay Jason Avant	WR	MICHIGAN	4	12(109)	Philadelphia Demetrius Williams	WR	OREGON	4	14(111)	Baltimore Will Blackmon	DB	BOSTON COLLEGE	4	18(115)	Green Bay[b] Brandon Marshall	WR	CENTRAL FLORIDA	4	22(119)	Denver[/b] Skyler Green	RS	LSU	4	28(125)	Dallas Domenik Hixon	WR	AKRON	4	33(130)	Denver Marques Hagans	WR	VIRGINIA	5	11(144)	St. Louis Tony Moll	OT	NEVADA	5	32(165)	Green Bay Mike Hass	WR	OREGON STATE	6	2(171)	New Orleans Jonathan Orr	WR	WISCONSIN	6	3(172)	Tennessee Delanie Walker	WR	CENTRAL MISSOURI	6	6(175)	San Francisco Adam Jennings	WR	FRESNO STATE	6	15(184)	Atlanta Jeff Webb	WR	SAN DIEGO STATE	6	21(190)	Kansas City Ethan Kilmer	DB	PENN STATE	7	1(209)	Cincinnati Todd Watkins	WR	BYU	7	10(218)	Arizona Benny Brazell	WR	LSU	7	23(231)	Cincinnati Devin Aromashodu	WR	AUBURN	7	25(233)	Miami Ben Obomanu	WR	AUBURN	7	41(249)	Seattle David Anderson	WR	COLORADO STATE	7	43(251)	Houston[b] Marques Colston	WR	HOFSTRA	7	44(252)	New Orleans[/b] Kevin McMahan	WR	MAINE	7	47(255)	Oakland

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I thought someone did a study where they showed it was more often a 2nd year WR breakout? Chase, Doug?

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I do not necessarily subscribe to the theory, but I do like James Jones and Jason Hill for 2009. Clowney is a guy that could surprise, mainly because his injury history.

 

[MTskibum]

I thought someone did a study where they showed it was more often a 2nd year WR breakout? Chase, Doug?

I dont know if he posts here, but NaNo or NAN, at fftoday and fflivewire forums respectivly did a study that showed that the WR's essentially had an equal chance of breaking out in their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th seasons.

 

[comfortably numb]

I thought someone did a study where they showed it was more often a 2nd year WR breakout? Chase, Doug?

I dont know if he posts here, but NaNo or NAN, at fftoday and fflivewire forums respectivly did a study that showed that the WR's essentially had an equal chance of breaking out in their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th seasons.

Sounds like moral of the story is give your WR's 1-4 years to do something.With that said, we have a list of WR heading into year 3 and year 4.Any thoughts on any players in particular?Class of 2007 seems like it has many more names that stick out to me with the potential to do some damage.GinnMeachemJames JonesA GonzalezSidney RiceLaurent RobinsonSteve SmithSteve BreastonChancey StuckeyDavid Clowneyetcetc1 or 2 of these players could have a big impact IMO

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

most 2yearWR from that class have already done it if they are gonna break out

and no one said Mike Walker yet??? LOL

 

[MTskibum]

Sounds like moral of the story is give your WR's 1-4 years to do something.With that said, we have a list of WR heading into year 3 and year 4.Any thoughts on any players in particular?Class of 2007 seems like it has many more names that stick out to me with the potential to do some damage.GinnMeachemJames JonesA GonzalezSidney RiceLaurent RobinsonSteve SmithSteve BreastonChancey StuckeyDavid Clowneyetcetc1 or 2 of these players could have a big impact IMO

3rd year wr does hold true, but statistically speaking just by a few percentage pts.Players are just as likely to break out in years 2 and 4:Breakout WRs from 1983-2004Year Percent2nd 25%3rd 27%4th 23%5th 10%6th 3%7th 5%8th 4%9th 0%10th 2%11th 012th 1%Based on this sample size, the strict version of the Third Year Theory appears to have the highest percentage. But does a fantasy owner really want to base his breakout pick on receivers only in their third year? The percentage isn't high enough to warrant that kind of decision. Clearly, a breakout season is not exclusive to the third year. This data supports the looser version of the theory. If one takes a more cumulative view of this sample, we discover similar, but a slightly higher, percentage trend that Tony initially provided Yours Truly:52% of the receivers broke out between years 2 or 3.75% of the receivers broke out between years 2-4.85% of the receivers broke out between years 2-5.

I did not do this research. NaNo, or NaN did, depending on what other forums that you visit. I will send him a PM with a link to this thread, maybe he will post his research data.

 

[Cookiemonster]

HONDA, and it's only been a week. 2 days since the last post!!! Ahhhh. The NFL season is creeping closer, closer, closer...

 

[FUBAR]

I'm not sure whether to call these breakouts or just guys I expect to have good years, exceeding their previous.

Ted Ginn, Jr. WR OHIO STATE 1 9(9) Miami

Robert Meachem WR TENNESSEE 1 27(27) New Orleans

Sidney Rice WR SOUTH CAROLINA 2 12(44) Minnesota

Steve Smith WR USC 2 19(51) New York

James Jones WR SAN JOSE STATE 3 14(78) Green Bay

Mike Walker WR CENTRAL FLORIDA 3 15(79) Jacksonville

Johnnie Lee Higgins WR UTEP 3 35(99) Oakland

Steve Breaston WR MICHIGAN 5 5(142) Arizona

David Clowney WR VIRGINIA TECH 5 20(157) Green Bay

 

[lyon812]

Wouldn't you say that Breaston's already broken out? At least in my leagues, his excellent 08 has put him on everyone's radar.

 

[cstu]

Robert Meachem WR TENNESSEE 1 27(27) New Orleans

The best hope for Meachem is that someone like the Colts or Titans think Lance Moore is worth a 2nd round pick and then all he has to beat out for the starting job is Henderson.

 

[az_prof]

I do subscribe to the theory in a limited fashion. It isn't like it is ONLY the third year when guys break out--just the most frequent. And in general, the second and third together are by far the most common. And, if a guy doesn't break out by his fifth year you can pretty much write him off. There are a few exceptions to prove the rule, but they are few and very far between.

I like the following this year:

Ginn (one mark against him is that his QBs' skills do not match his; but I still like his talent and he was raw coming out of college)

Meachem: he showed alot of play making ability last season when he played. He should get more PT this year and I am very high on him.

Gonzo: I am less high on him than most because he has had alot of opportunity already, plays with arguably the best QB and offense in the game, and has put up average numbers. I see him as a good WR3 for a long time; not sure he will do that much better than he has.

Steve Smith: I like him. Somehow he has fallen behind Hixon on depth chart but I like what I have seen from him and there should be more opportunity this season.

Jason Hill: I like him but that is a horrible offense

James Jones: I like him alot.

Mike Walker: if he can stay healthy, big if,,,,he can be a stud and he should get his chance this season.

Breaston: I like.

Paul Williams with Tennessee is also intriguing.

 

[FUBAR]

Wouldn't you say that Breaston's already broken out? At least in my leagues, his excellent 08 has put him on everyone's radar.

probably, which is why I stated "I'm not sure whether to call these breakouts or just guys I expect to have good years, exceeding their previous." I think Breaston can improve on last year. Especially if Boldin leaves town.

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

I'm not sure whether to call these breakouts or just guys I expect to have good years, exceeding their previous. Ted Ginn, Jr. WR OHIO STATE 1 9(9) Miami Robert Meachem WR TENNESSEE 1 27(27) New Orleans Sidney Rice WR SOUTH CAROLINA 2 12(44) Minnesota Steve Smith WR USC 2 19(51) New York James Jones WR SAN JOSE STATE 3 14(78) Green Bay Mike Walker WR CENTRAL FLORIDA 3 15(79) Jacksonville Johnnie Lee Higgins WR UTEP 3 35(99) Oakland Steve Breaston WR MICHIGAN 5 5(142) Arizona David Clowney WR VIRGINIA TECH 5 20(157) Green Bay

Fubar, we think too much alike,lol. Probably why I didn't draft to well in WSDL4 with you right behind me. I like all the guys you have listed plus a few. I think at least one maybe two of these guys could make some noise.Anthony Gonzalez- with Harrison gone he'll certainly get more looks.Jason Hill- Brandon Jones coming in to the 49ers is gonna help Hill get opps IMO. Lot of guys are high on Josh Morgan as well but I think it'll be Hill who'll improve. His chances could be hurt if they bring in Torry Holt.Laurent Robinson- Matt Ryan's td's are gonna improve and if Robinson can stay healthy he could see an uptick in production. Probably not a breakout but maybe a sleeper.Mike Walker- I'm looking for him to make the biggest leap but it's gonna depend on QB Garrard's play. Someone has to be the leading WR for Jax and it could just as easy be Walker as Matt Jones(went to jail instead of rehab, not good)We know Jax is gonna run the legs off MJD and Garrard needs to step up his game to help MJD.Sidney Rice- I still think he's got good talent but he needs to stay healthy and hopefully Rosenfels will look his way more. His upside is still limited and dependant on the QB play.

 

[MAC_32]

I thought someone did a study where they showed it was more often a 2nd year WR breakout? Chase, Doug?

Read one elsewhere saying a player is most likely to breakout in their 2nd or 3rd year but not one more than the other.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I thought someone did a study where they showed it was more often a 2nd year WR breakout? Chase, Doug?

Read one elsewhere saying a player is most likely to breakout in their 2nd or 3rd year but not one more than the other.

Thanks and thanks for the other answers guys.

 

[Matt Waldman]

I don't subscribe to the 3rd Year Theory, but I do like to attempt a statistical profiling method of receivers that provides a range of years, receptions, yards, and scores to determine a minimum number of each to narrow down the pool of potential breakout candidates.

I've been writing about this for a few years now and I will likely write about it again in the preseason. Basically, a fantasy owner I knew did some research into receiver performance for a period of years and determined that the baseline year for a breakout candidate the year before he had a breakout season was something like 41 receptions, 400 yards, and 2 scores.

This will yield a wide range of candidates, but you can then narrow the pool to players in a good situation to make a run at a breakout season. Over the past five seasons an average of five receivers per season attain what I consider breakout status, which is 150 fantasy points. This equates to a top-15 year at the position on average.

The safest bet is to look at rookie receivers who had between 50-59 receptions and 700-799 yards. They had the highest likelihood of achieving breakout status the following season. Of course, they were pretty close already and you're looking at a very specific subset of players.

I think if you're not following every player or lack access to watch players in depth (which most do, just due to time in the day), statistically profiling a position as a predictor for future success isn't a bad way to begin.

 

[az_prof]

Wouldn't you say that Breaston's already broken out? At least in my leagues, his excellent 08 has put him on everyone's radar.

probably, which is why I stated "I'm not sure whether to call these breakouts or just guys I expect to have good years, exceeding their previous." I think Breaston can improve on last year. Especially if Boldin leaves town.

Depends on how you define "breakout," which is one of the reasons that there are different conclusions about the third year "breakout" I suppose.In my mind, a breakout year is when a WR becomes a reliable fantasy starter, which will vary depending on league format, but for me that usually means close to 900 yards, 65 receptions, and 6 TDs--or close to 190 fantasy points.

 

[B Will]

Steve Smith (NYG) ... hopefully no Toomer. And with the Plax situation i think he will step up. He is great friends with Jerry Rice.Jerry gave him advice, Rice said,"if you want to be a superstar in the NFL, you have to make yourself one."

 

[az_prof]

Steve Smith (NYG) ... hopefully no Toomer. And with the Plax situation i think he will step up. He is great friends with Jerry Rice.Jerry gave him advice, Rice said,"if you want to be a superstar in the NFL, you have to make yourself one."

I like Smith but there was opportunity last season and I ask myself why Hixon got the PT and not Smith if Smith is the up and comer?

 

[MAC_32]

Steve Smith (NYG) ... hopefully no Toomer. And with the Plax situation i think he will step up. He is great friends with Jerry Rice.Jerry gave him advice, Rice said,"if you want to be a superstar in the NFL, you have to make yourself one."

I like Smith but there was opportunity last season and I ask myself why Hixon got the PT and not Smith if Smith is the up and comer?

Hixon has big play making potential, Smith is more of a complimentary WR. His skill set's rather limited, but he's definitely a player I'd want on my team. Enough skills to get by but plays with the heart and desire of a true competitor - he'll block, run across the middle, whatever you ask. A better real player than fantasy.

 

[saintfool]

Meachem: he showed alot of play making ability last season when he played. He should get more PT this year and I am very high on him.

i would have agreed with this but they re-signed devery henderson to a multiyear extension for decent money. they have lance moore as a RFA, too, and everyone expects him to come back. so that leaves meachem as the odd man out, i think. re-signing henderson is a big no-confidence vote in meachem because they share similar skillsets. he will get balls thrown to him because the offense is like that but, barring injury, i wouldn't expect anything meaningful.

 

[cstu]

Meachem: he showed alot of play making ability last season when he played. He should get more PT this year and I am very high on him.

i would have agreed with this but they re-signed devery henderson to a multiyear extension for decent money. they have lance moore as a RFA, too, and everyone expects him to come back. so that leaves meachem as the odd man out, i think. re-signing henderson is a big no-confidence vote in meachem because they share similar skillsets. he will get balls thrown to him because the offense is like that but, barring injury, i wouldn't expect anything meaningful.

I think that was more of protection in case someone does sign Lance Moore. They wouldn't want to be left with just Colston and Meachem. Henderson fills a need in that offense, but he's not #2 material. Meachem's main competition is Lance Moore.

 

[bcr8f]

I do not necessarily subscribe to the theory, but I do like James Jones and Jason Hill for 2009. Clowney is a guy that could surprise, mainly because his injury history.

Jones worked hard and was ready last year but was hurt. I do like him this season.

 

[saintfool]

Meachem: he showed alot of play making ability last season when he played. He should get more PT this year and I am very high on him.

i would have agreed with this but they re-signed devery henderson to a multiyear extension for decent money. they have lance moore as a RFA, too, and everyone expects him to come back. so that leaves meachem as the odd man out, i think. re-signing henderson is a big no-confidence vote in meachem because they share similar skillsets. he will get balls thrown to him because the offense is like that but, barring injury, i wouldn't expect anything meaningful.

I think that was more of protection in case someone does sign Lance Moore. They wouldn't want to be left with just Colston and Meachem. Henderson fills a need in that offense, but he's not #2 material. Meachem's main competition is Lance Moore.

i would agree that he's #2. he's a downfield and vertical passing threat. pretty one-dimensional really. he's a great complement to players like colston (big, physical target) and moore (quick, sure-handed). like many, i am surprised by the lack of interest this offseason in moore actually. he may be a bit of a system guy but he's a worker, regardless, with a relatively low pricetag (R2 pick, i think). he's expected to sign, based on everything i have read.payton has said he still believes in meachem, pointing out roddy white as a player who needed time. meachem has shown flashes and i really thought he'd be further along. i cannot help but think signing devery to a long contract has made meachem irrelevant.

 

[az_prof]

Meachem: he showed alot of play making ability last season when he played. He should get more PT this year and I am very high on him.

i would have agreed with this but they re-signed devery henderson to a multiyear extension for decent money. they have lance moore as a RFA, too, and everyone expects him to come back. so that leaves meachem as the odd man out, i think. re-signing henderson is a big no-confidence vote in meachem because they share similar skillsets. he will get balls thrown to him because the offense is like that but, barring injury, i wouldn't expect anything meaningful.

I think that was more of protection in case someone does sign Lance Moore. They wouldn't want to be left with just Colston and Meachem. Henderson fills a need in that offense, but he's not #2 material. Meachem's main competition is Lance Moore.

i would agree that he's #2. he's a downfield and vertical passing threat. pretty one-dimensional really. he's a great complement to players like colston (big, physical target) and moore (quick, sure-handed). like many, i am surprised by the lack of interest this offseason in moore actually. he may be a bit of a system guy but he's a worker, regardless, with a relatively low pricetag (R2 pick, i think). he's expected to sign, based on everything i have read.payton has said he still believes in meachem, pointing out roddy white as a player who needed time. meachem has shown flashes and i really thought he'd be further along. i cannot help but think signing devery to a long contract has made meachem irrelevant.

Guys like Henderson get signed and a year later cut all the time. I don't think the Henderson signing means that much. The point above about him being insurance for Moore makes alot of sense. You need more than two or three WRs. This doesn't mean that Henderson will be above Meachem when the depth chart is finalized at the end of camp.