5th-10th round RBs for the Waldman Upside Down Stategy (1 Viewer)

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

As of now, I think you can again call the strategy a success. A couple stud receivers like Calvin and Nicks (or Fitz or AJ - although now AJ is hurt)

In a 12 team league I don't think you were getting those combos - if you picked early enough to get Calvin or AJ, Nicks and Fitz would be gone by your second pick. Besides, Nicks has been a dud two out of four weeks. Fitz was a dud at least one week that I recall. AJ would've hurt you yesterday and it sounds like he'll miss additional time. Roddy White was right up there in ADP as well, and he's not blowing the doors off the league either. Calvin's been an uberstud, of course.

with a top TE in Witten early

Or Finley (dud), Gates (dud), Clark (dud)...

and as long as you hit the right RBs late, you're sitting pretty:WellsFJaxTolbert - up and down, but a serviceable RB2 so farMcGahee - Thank you CecilBen Tate - I don't know if anyone else did this, but I drafted him late just to play him week 1 and got 3 weeks of production out of him...I'm ok with thatAddai - has been ok as a weak RB2

I wouldn't be comfortable rolling out some combo of two of those guys every week. Felix Jones has had one or two duds so far. Wells has played well but he's also already missed a game. If you hit the "right ones" (whichever ones those are) you might be sitting pretty. But go back and look at the list of RBs Waldman suggested you target in rounds 5-10. It's littered with duds, and hardly any (if any at all) guys you'd want to start every week.

And more guys will come still, like Torain just did, like Ridley, etc...

...and in many leagues, Denarious Moore, Eric Decker, David Nelson, Cam Newton, etc. Basically it all boils down to this:

it is no different than any other "you have to draft the right guys with it" strategy.

I pointed out in the "Upside-down drafting" thread back in the preseason that there was really no actual analysis done to show that this strategy was any more useful than a normal VBD strategy, and cherry-picking a roster through week 4 doesn't lend any credence to this strategy either. Let me hand pick a roster drafted the old-fashioned way (e.g. Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Wes Welker, Steve Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Matt Stafford, etc.) and I could "prove" that traditional VBD is the right strategy, too.

 

[Steed]

I got lead to this thread from how did you do upside down drafting and your post stuck out to me. Your assessment was way off yet you were able to pick out some great rbs late, you should reconsider this strategy and not be afraid to follow your instincts as a RB virtuoso. That 2nd team is a championship team with some waiver maintenance.

You can always find WRs later on in the sweet spot rounds, you cannot find bell cows later on in the draft. I'm not saying you go RB/RB, but I do think that grabbing 2-3 of the top12-15 RBs on FBG current rankings is a better plan than taking 2 WRs, a QB, and a TE. I love the top6 QBs but I would rather someone go RB-QB-RB, then go WR/WR/WR the next 3 rounds where you would have a roster something like this....

1st-RB Shady McCoy

2nd-QB A.Rodgers/Brady...either one

3rd-RB A.Bradshaw

4th-WR M.Williams

5th-WR M.Manningham

6th.WR S.Moss

7th-RB J.Addai

8th-TE Pick one

vs

1st-WR H.Nicks

2nd-WR G.Jennings

3rd-QB D.Brees

4th-TE Vernon Davis

5th-RB C.Wells

6th RB M.Lynch

7th-RB R.Bush

8th-WR L.Moore

To me the winner is clear but I guess others see it differently. The 1st team has a strong RB1, solid RB2, and a good RB3 in Addai. Top QB, and then a nice blend at WR, remember they are inconsistent so you never really know when they will actually go off. In the 8th round you can still find plenty of quality TEs. The 2nd team has a nice 1-2 punch at WR, the QB is good but not not superior to the 1st team, and then you look at RB and you have to wheel out some combo of Well/Lynch/Bush...no thanks. I find the whole exercise disturbing because people are taking a classroom theory of sorts and using it like it's LAW. I think this theory has a long way to go to be proven and I don't want to be one of the guinea pigs this year. On the flip side I would love drafting in a 12 teamer where 1-2 people are using this theory.

 

[The Jerk]

I got lead to this thread from how did you do upside down drafting and your post stuck out to me. Your assessment was way off yet you were able to pick out some great rbs late, you should reconsider this strategy and not be afraid to follow your instincts as a RB virtuoso. That 2nd team is a championship team with some waiver maintenance.

You can always find WRs later on in the sweet spot rounds, you cannot find bell cows later on in the draft. I'm not saying you go RB/RB, but I do think that grabbing 2-3 of the top12-15 RBs on FBG current rankings is a better plan than taking 2 WRs, a QB, and a TE. I love the top6 QBs but I would rather someone go RB-QB-RB, then go WR/WR/WR the next 3 rounds where you would have a roster something like this....

1st-RB Shady McCoy

2nd-QB A.Rodgers/Brady...either one

3rd-RB A.Bradshaw

4th-WR M.Williams

5th-WR M.Manningham

6th.WR S.Moss

7th-RB J.Addai

8th-TE Pick one

vs

1st-WR H.Nicks

2nd-WR G.Jennings

3rd-QB D.Brees

4th-TE Vernon Davis

5th-RB C.Wells

6th RB M.Lynch

7th-RB R.Bush

8th-WR L.Moore

To me the winner is clear but I guess others see it differently. The 1st team has a strong RB1, solid RB2, and a good RB3 in Addai. Top QB, and then a nice blend at WR, remember they are inconsistent so you never really know when they will actually go off. In the 8th round you can still find plenty of quality TEs. The 2nd team has a nice 1-2 punch at WR, the QB is good but not not superior to the 1st team, and then you look at RB and you have to wheel out some combo of Well/Lynch/Bush...no thanks. I find the whole exercise disturbing because people are taking a classroom theory of sorts and using it like it's LAW. I think this theory has a long way to go to be proven and I don't want to be one of the guinea pigs this year. On the flip side I would love drafting in a 12 teamer where 1-2 people are using this theory.

Ironically, the so-called weaker RB team arguably is stronger, even with McCoy on team 1. Certainly it's better depth-wise. No doubt that the RB heavy team is a near-disaster at WR.It's just one specific example, but in many ways it's an inadvertent poster child for drafting upside down.

 

[bonesman]

Anyone got a link to that league where Waldman took Witten #1 overall? I'm wondering how things shook out there.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I think using this strategy is dangerous and a mistake IMO. - Almost all WRs, even the top4-5 have streaks where they disappear. Building your team around WRs in the 1st 3-4 rounds is like building a house of cards. It's no different than the Lions picking WRs in the 1st round 3 years in a row or whatever they did. In fact if you look at Detroit, they have weapons but what they lack is an OL, a good one anyways. You build from the inside out. Most of these WRs are only going to get 5-6 receptions a game on avg tops so they are limited to begin with. What if the weather is bad? Anyone else notice that teams tend to run the ball more late in the season when it's freezing outside? Ever had a WR heavy team that just disappears in the playoff weeks when the weather turns on everyone? - If you are not a savvy drafter, if you can't be ready to draft right now on a moment's notice inside of a couple minutes just off the top of your head, I would say this strategy is going to be very dangerous for you. If Matt gets into the 5th or 6th round and all the RB1/RB2 types are gone, maybe with his skill set he can still maneuver through and come out alright but I sure wouldn't recommend it to anyone I am working with. There is a reason I write a weekly RB thread and not a WR thread. Wide Receivers are unpredictable outside of a few elite guys. if I tried to predict what a WR would do every week I wouldn't have a thread. Someone tried to do one for awhile and it did not work IIRC. You are playing games or taking a risk to try and prove your smarter than the rest of your league. In a best ball format I could maybe understand this theory a little better because you don't have to worry about match ups as much but in a league where you have to fill out your roster and you must start at least 2 RBs a week, I just cannot say enough how fatal I think this could be to your team. You can always find WRs later on in the sweet spot rounds, you cannot find bell cows later on in the draft. I'm not saying you go RB/RB, but I do think that grabbing 2-3 of the top12-15 RBs on FBG current rankings is a better plan than taking 2 WRs, a QB, and a TE. I love the top6 QBs but I would rather someone go RB-QB-RB, then go WR/WR/WR the next 3 rounds where you would have a roster something like this....1st-RB Shady McCoy2nd-QB A.Rodgers/Brady...either one3rd-RB A.Bradshaw4th-WR M.Williams5th-WR M.Manningham6th.WR S.Moss7th-RB J.Addai8th-TE Pick onevs1st-WR H.Nicks2nd-WR G.Jennings3rd-QB D.Brees4th-TE Vernon Davis5th-RB C.Wells6th RB M.Lynch7th-RB R.Bush8th-WR L.MooreTo me the winner is clear but I guess others see it differently. The 1st team has a strong RB1, solid RB2, and a good RB3 in Addai. Top QB, and then a nice blend at WR, remember they are inconsistent so you never really know when they will actually go off. In the 8th round you can still find plenty of quality TEs. The 2nd team has a nice 1-2 punch at WR, the QB is good but not not superior to the 1st team, and then you look at RB and you have to wheel out some combo of Well/Lynch/Bush...no thanks. I find the whole exercise disturbing because people are taking a classroom theory of sorts and using it like it's LAW. I think this theory has a long way to go to be proven and I don't want to be one of the guinea pigs this year. On the flip side I would love drafting in a 12 teamer where 1-2 people are using this theory.

Staff material.

 

[Ashem]

Anyone got a link to that league where Waldman took Witten #1 overall? I'm wondering how things shook out there.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11bramel_tiers.phphttp://www.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/65781Waldman 7-9

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I got lead to this thread from how did you do upside down drafting and your post stuck out to me. Your assessment was way off yet you were able to pick out some great rbs late, you should reconsider this strategy and not be afraid to follow your instincts as a RB virtuoso. That 2nd team is a championship team with some waiver maintenance.

You can always find WRs later on in the sweet spot rounds, you cannot find bell cows later on in the draft. I'm not saying you go RB/RB, but I do think that grabbing 2-3 of the top12-15 RBs on FBG current rankings is a better plan than taking 2 WRs, a QB, and a TE. I love the top6 QBs but I would rather someone go RB-QB-RB, then go WR/WR/WR the next 3 rounds where you would have a roster something like this....

1st-RB Shady McCoy

2nd-QB A.Rodgers/Brady...either one

3rd-RB A.Bradshaw

4th-WR M.Williams

5th-WR M.Manningham

6th.WR S.Moss

7th-RB J.Addai

8th-TE Pick one

vs

1st-WR H.Nicks

2nd-WR G.Jennings

3rd-QB D.Brees

4th-TE Vernon Davis

5th-RB C.Wells

6th RB M.Lynch

7th-RB R.Bush

8th-WR L.Moore

To me the winner is clear but I guess others see it differently. The 1st team has a strong RB1, solid RB2, and a good RB3 in Addai. Top QB, and then a nice blend at WR, remember they are inconsistent so you never really know when they will actually go off. In the 8th round you can still find plenty of quality TEs. The 2nd team has a nice 1-2 punch at WR, the QB is good but not not superior to the 1st team, and then you look at RB and you have to wheel out some combo of Well/Lynch/Bush...no thanks. I find the whole exercise disturbing because people are taking a classroom theory of sorts and using it like it's LAW. I think this theory has a long way to go to be proven and I don't want to be one of the guinea pigs this year. On the flip side I would love drafting in a 12 teamer where 1-2 people are using this theory.

Ironically, the so-called weaker RB team arguably is stronger, even with McCoy on team 1. Certainly it's better depth-wise. No doubt that the RB heavy team is a near-disaster at WR.It's just one specific example, but in many ways it's an inadvertent poster child for drafting upside down.

He really couldn't have picked a worse team to denigrate Upside down drafting. Now imagine that team with Megatron at the 1 pick.

 

[karmarooster]

Attempted a slight variation of the Upside Down Strategy in 10 team, .5PPR (2-3-1-flex) in case anyone was interested (doubt it). $100 local league with a few guppies. From the 10 spot:QB - Matt Ryan (7)RB - Felix (3) , Ingram (5), Wells (6), Tate (11)WR - Calvin (1), Roddy (2), Santana Moss (8), Julio Jones (9), Lee Evans (10), Nate Burlson (12), Antonio Brown (14)TE - Gates (4), Hernandez (13)Now a devout Waldman disciple. But... a few variations that I feel are in order: especially in smaller leagues, I think it makes more sense to wait on your WR3, because there is so much talent that falls, and this is only amplified when drafting with less than sophisticated fantasy owners. So by going WR-WR-TE in the first three rounds, you are left with the option of taking an Elite QB, or grabbing a mid-round RB sleeper (or 2). So by going WR-WR-TE-RB I think it softens the blow to your RB corps, and it's possible to still get a few guys who you think could jump into the stud category. The WR talent pool declines much less steeply, and this steers me away from going all out WR-WR-WR-TE-QB. Of course these factors could change for a 12 team league or full PPR.WR options at the 3/4 turn that I could've taken over Felix: Dez, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne. Sometimes it's just more fun to go out and get your guys.I was actually targeting Ryan and Stafford and hoped Stafford would fall an extra round, but he didn't. That way I could play matchups with either Ryan or Stafford and have the Roddy or Calvin connection each week. Hopefully can work out some kind of trade, but i think I choose two up-and-coming offenses on turf that could both be very high flying: Atlanta and Detroit.

Made the Championship with this team but largely because of Demarco Murray. Ended up with:Ryan/TebowMurray, Beanie, Felix, Ingram (worthless).Calvin, Roddy, Harvin, Julio, DThomas, Brown (start 3 plus a flex). HernandezI think the key if you go with this strategy is to eschew the big play RBs (like felix) in favor of the workhorse types like Benson. And obviously you're set if you hit on a stud like FJax.I've also been betting big on either the Broncos or the Falcons lately, for example playing Ryan, Roddy, and Julio in week 14, then going with Tebow and Thomas last week.also now stuck with starting either Sammy Morris, Gerhart, or LT at the RB2 for the championship. This isn't really a flaw in the strategy but in my management, and inability to trade one of the 6 good WRs I have for a RB, because Murray went down after the stupid trade deadline.

 

[Matt Waldman]

From the FBGs Fantasy Players Champion

My link

Thanks for the well wishes guys. I still can't believe I won, it's a surreal feeling. I still feel like a rookie to high stakes games, but I remember making it to the championship round of the NFFC about 5 or 6 years ago, and drafting in the same league as Team Legacy, thinking I would be crushed, and somehow making it to leading the field after week 14. I dropped to a finish of 8th that year, so tried not to get my hopes up this year after leading the 15th week.

Just want to do a shout out to Matt Waldman, whose upside down drafting strategy I followed pretty closely. You can see from my squad that I drafted a lot of the guys that he recommended on this site and on his rookie scouting portfolio blog (hits like CJ, Lynch, Hernandez, Bush, and Decker, as well as misses like Ingram, Harrison, Hardesty or Hill).

1.11 Calvin Johnson

2.2 Roddy White

3.11 Micheal Turner

4.2 Mark Ingram

5.11 Tom Brady

6.02 Marshawn Lynch

7.11 Aaron Hernandez

8.02 Rob Gronkowski

9.11 Michael Bush

10.02 Sidney Rice

11.11 Jermaine Gresham

12.02 Eagles D/ST

13.11 Donald Driver

14.2 Jerome Harrison

15.11 Montario Hardesty

16.2 Jason Hill

17.11 Stephen Gostkowski

18.02 Donovan McNabb

19.11 Terrell Owens

20.02 Eric Decker

--Ron