Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
.....and because I pick 8th in my $$ league. 
Strategy for the first 6 rounds or so - what have you got? I'll give you my train of thought, feel free to tell me where I am making mistakes. Let's assume 12-team league, standard non-PPR scoring, all TDs 6 points.
Note : As a point of reference, when I discuss my OWN PERSONAL draft strategy, my league is a 12-team, non-PPR, all TD2 6 league, but differences are that the league is NO TE REQUIRED and also awards yardage at 1 pt/20 yards rushing, 1 pt/15 yards receiving (for WR and TE only, RBs get 1 pt/20 yards) and 1 pt/50 yards passing.
First round, I am really looking solely at the RB position. I think pick #8 in a 12-team is too early to start looking at Manning or the receivers, so I am pretty much dead set on an RB here. Now, it's pretty obvious that Alexander, Tomlinson, and LJ in some order are the top 3. Portis is a cinch to be gone as well, as there are 7 U of Miami grads in the league. For that matter, Edge is probably gone as well, so that's 6. I would normally think Barber would be a top choice as well, but last year, I had him ranked 9th in our scoring system going into the draft and he fell to 2.11, where I happily snapped him up. So, if he drops again, is he the sure fire pick here? Assuming he's gone as he will be in most drafts, then all but one of the following backs are available : Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams. In a non-PPR that is somewhat TD heavy as mine is, I tend towards Rudi, whose proven TD output is a real plus. People will argue over who the best pick here is : what do you think?
Second round becomes very interesting. Manning's current ADP has him going off the board at the vbottom of round 1 or very top of round 2, but the standard variance shows that there's at least a slim chance that he's there at 2.5. If so, is he worth the investment, or do you sit on a QB and wait until the later rounds? If we don't go Manning, then an interesting choice arises. Take a second back, a la Kevin Jones, Westbrook, McGahee, Dom Davis, Julius Jones, Willie Parker, etc? Or go to a top-tier WR? ADP looks like in most leagues, Steve Smith and T.O. are gone at this pick, leaving a group of Holt, Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Harrison as the available talent at this juncture. My plan is to rank the likely available RBs and WRs by VBD and simply choose the highest rated, regardless of position. Using the draft dominator and most recent projections by FBG, in my scoring system, it seems extremely likely that it's the WR spot that is going to provide the most value here, numerically. I am leaning towards a WR here.
Now, your third round from the 8 hole will depend largely on your second round choice, and your own personal strategy. Most will likely look to add a legit WR1 here if you went RB/RB in the first two rounds. However, there are those who like to take RBs until the cows come home. If a WR or QB was the second round choice, then RB becomes very attractive here as well. Available talent at this point seems like Darrell Jackson, Plaxico Burress and Santana Moss at WR (Ward and Chambers are going off a few picks before 3.8 in most drafts) and Reggie Bush, Reuben Droughns, Warrick Dunn, and DeShaun Foster at RB. Also, Carson Palmer becomes a possibility if, as in most cases, you haven't drafted Manning. To me, unless a more proven commodity like Ward drops to this spot, I might go RB here regardless. Frankly, DJax scares me with his recent injury woes and Burress is inconsistent. Moss would likely be my first choice of those three, but his targets are likely to plummet, making a reasonable facsimile of last year's numbers seem like a pipe dream. If I went WR in round 2, I'd almost definitely take a second back here, as the 4 guys I listed above are likely to be gone by round 4, according to ADP. Now, of those four, Bush is the x factor, Droughns is a powerful back on a lousy team, which limits his TD #s, Dunn is a steady yardage performer whose stock slips a bit in my TD-heavy scoring, and Foster has terrific upside potential in the Carolina offense, but a history of injuries. I might lean towards swinging for the fences with Bush here. However, I have to admit, Palmer is intriguing here, as his upside most likely provides the highest VBD ceiling of any player around at this spot. If you play in a TE-required league, do you consider Gates here?
Fourth round - if Palmer is still there, do you grab him now? If not, do you grab another QB here, or wait? QBs typically seem to start flying off the board in rounds 4 & 5 in my drafts, so without another pick until 5.8, one must at least consider it. Brady, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Palmer, Eli, Culpepper, and Delhomme could all conceivably be gone before we choose again - more likely 4-5 of those QBs are, and maybe Delhomme and Culpepper last until the late 5th. RBs going in this range include Tatum Bell, Corey Dillon, Joe Addai, Cedric Benson, and Deuce McAllister. Risk/reward picks, every one of them. Would a McAllister pick here make sense if you drafted Bush in the previous round? Deuce is going on average at 5.4, but as early as 2.11 and as late as 8.2. Would you wait a round and take your chances? I think so, because the WR value here is solid, IMO. Andre Johnson, Donald Driver, Javon Walker, and Antonio Gates (in non-TE leagues) are all typically on the board at this point, and IMO, represent more solid choices than the RBs I listed above. Assuming we have 2 RBs and 1 WR at this point, where would you go with this pick?
Fifth round - Looking briefly at some players typically available here.... Dominic Rhodes is an enticing possibility as an RB3. McNabb is there about 50% of the time, but I think I'd wait until round 6 for a QB if I hadn't drafted one yet. Houshmandzadeh, Branch, and Mason are possibilities, as their ADPs are 5.5, 5.6, and 5.7 respectively. If they're all gone, Galloway is likely still on the board. This seems to be a spot in the draft where people ease off receivers and start grabbing the remaining few solid backs and mid-first tier QBs, so I think I'd wait on a receiver too, unless maybe Houshmandzadeh or Mason fell to me. Aside from Rhodes, Thomas Jones, Frank Gore, and Ron Dayne are on the board at this point. If you go RB here, who's the best choice?
Sixth round - Bulger is sitting there, if you have the stones to draft him. He killed it for me as a 4th round selection last year, until his injury and Brunell's simultaneous collapse destroyed my season. Other QBs who may be there, but aren't likely to be there in round 7 include Delhomme, Bledsoe, and Kurt Warner. Would this be the spot to jump on a QB if you haven't drafted one already, or would you wait on a Plummer or Aaron Brooks in rounds 7-8? RBs by now are sketchy - Dayne MAY still be there, other than him, you're looking at DeAngelo Williams, Chris Brown, Curtis Martin, and LenDale White. One more reason why I think round 5 is best spent on an RB. At the WR spot, we see Michael Clayton, Reggie Brown, Rod Smith, and Nate Burleson. I'm personally not enamored with any of those guys, and think equal production can be found in rounds 7-10, so I think I'd go QB here.
Thus, to sum up, my thinking right now would likely land me a first 6 picks of :
QB : Bulger
RB1 : Steven Jackson
RB2 : Reggie Bush
RB3 : Dominic Rhodes
WR1 : Torry Holt
WR2: Donald Driver
Another possible outcome :
QB : Bledsoe
RB1 : Rudi Johnson
RB2 : Warrick Dunn
RB3 : Ron Dayne
WR1 : Chad Johnson
WR2 : Javon Walker
What do you guys think of these two starts? What might you do differently?
Let's get some good dialogue going.
Strategy for the first 6 rounds or so - what have you got? I'll give you my train of thought, feel free to tell me where I am making mistakes. Let's assume 12-team league, standard non-PPR scoring, all TDs 6 points.
Note : As a point of reference, when I discuss my OWN PERSONAL draft strategy, my league is a 12-team, non-PPR, all TD2 6 league, but differences are that the league is NO TE REQUIRED and also awards yardage at 1 pt/20 yards rushing, 1 pt/15 yards receiving (for WR and TE only, RBs get 1 pt/20 yards) and 1 pt/50 yards passing.
First round, I am really looking solely at the RB position. I think pick #8 in a 12-team is too early to start looking at Manning or the receivers, so I am pretty much dead set on an RB here. Now, it's pretty obvious that Alexander, Tomlinson, and LJ in some order are the top 3. Portis is a cinch to be gone as well, as there are 7 U of Miami grads in the league. For that matter, Edge is probably gone as well, so that's 6. I would normally think Barber would be a top choice as well, but last year, I had him ranked 9th in our scoring system going into the draft and he fell to 2.11, where I happily snapped him up. So, if he drops again, is he the sure fire pick here? Assuming he's gone as he will be in most drafts, then all but one of the following backs are available : Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams. In a non-PPR that is somewhat TD heavy as mine is, I tend towards Rudi, whose proven TD output is a real plus. People will argue over who the best pick here is : what do you think?
Second round becomes very interesting. Manning's current ADP has him going off the board at the vbottom of round 1 or very top of round 2, but the standard variance shows that there's at least a slim chance that he's there at 2.5. If so, is he worth the investment, or do you sit on a QB and wait until the later rounds? If we don't go Manning, then an interesting choice arises. Take a second back, a la Kevin Jones, Westbrook, McGahee, Dom Davis, Julius Jones, Willie Parker, etc? Or go to a top-tier WR? ADP looks like in most leagues, Steve Smith and T.O. are gone at this pick, leaving a group of Holt, Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Harrison as the available talent at this juncture. My plan is to rank the likely available RBs and WRs by VBD and simply choose the highest rated, regardless of position. Using the draft dominator and most recent projections by FBG, in my scoring system, it seems extremely likely that it's the WR spot that is going to provide the most value here, numerically. I am leaning towards a WR here.
Now, your third round from the 8 hole will depend largely on your second round choice, and your own personal strategy. Most will likely look to add a legit WR1 here if you went RB/RB in the first two rounds. However, there are those who like to take RBs until the cows come home. If a WR or QB was the second round choice, then RB becomes very attractive here as well. Available talent at this point seems like Darrell Jackson, Plaxico Burress and Santana Moss at WR (Ward and Chambers are going off a few picks before 3.8 in most drafts) and Reggie Bush, Reuben Droughns, Warrick Dunn, and DeShaun Foster at RB. Also, Carson Palmer becomes a possibility if, as in most cases, you haven't drafted Manning. To me, unless a more proven commodity like Ward drops to this spot, I might go RB here regardless. Frankly, DJax scares me with his recent injury woes and Burress is inconsistent. Moss would likely be my first choice of those three, but his targets are likely to plummet, making a reasonable facsimile of last year's numbers seem like a pipe dream. If I went WR in round 2, I'd almost definitely take a second back here, as the 4 guys I listed above are likely to be gone by round 4, according to ADP. Now, of those four, Bush is the x factor, Droughns is a powerful back on a lousy team, which limits his TD #s, Dunn is a steady yardage performer whose stock slips a bit in my TD-heavy scoring, and Foster has terrific upside potential in the Carolina offense, but a history of injuries. I might lean towards swinging for the fences with Bush here. However, I have to admit, Palmer is intriguing here, as his upside most likely provides the highest VBD ceiling of any player around at this spot. If you play in a TE-required league, do you consider Gates here?
Fourth round - if Palmer is still there, do you grab him now? If not, do you grab another QB here, or wait? QBs typically seem to start flying off the board in rounds 4 & 5 in my drafts, so without another pick until 5.8, one must at least consider it. Brady, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Palmer, Eli, Culpepper, and Delhomme could all conceivably be gone before we choose again - more likely 4-5 of those QBs are, and maybe Delhomme and Culpepper last until the late 5th. RBs going in this range include Tatum Bell, Corey Dillon, Joe Addai, Cedric Benson, and Deuce McAllister. Risk/reward picks, every one of them. Would a McAllister pick here make sense if you drafted Bush in the previous round? Deuce is going on average at 5.4, but as early as 2.11 and as late as 8.2. Would you wait a round and take your chances? I think so, because the WR value here is solid, IMO. Andre Johnson, Donald Driver, Javon Walker, and Antonio Gates (in non-TE leagues) are all typically on the board at this point, and IMO, represent more solid choices than the RBs I listed above. Assuming we have 2 RBs and 1 WR at this point, where would you go with this pick?
Fifth round - Looking briefly at some players typically available here.... Dominic Rhodes is an enticing possibility as an RB3. McNabb is there about 50% of the time, but I think I'd wait until round 6 for a QB if I hadn't drafted one yet. Houshmandzadeh, Branch, and Mason are possibilities, as their ADPs are 5.5, 5.6, and 5.7 respectively. If they're all gone, Galloway is likely still on the board. This seems to be a spot in the draft where people ease off receivers and start grabbing the remaining few solid backs and mid-first tier QBs, so I think I'd wait on a receiver too, unless maybe Houshmandzadeh or Mason fell to me. Aside from Rhodes, Thomas Jones, Frank Gore, and Ron Dayne are on the board at this point. If you go RB here, who's the best choice?
Sixth round - Bulger is sitting there, if you have the stones to draft him. He killed it for me as a 4th round selection last year, until his injury and Brunell's simultaneous collapse destroyed my season. Other QBs who may be there, but aren't likely to be there in round 7 include Delhomme, Bledsoe, and Kurt Warner. Would this be the spot to jump on a QB if you haven't drafted one already, or would you wait on a Plummer or Aaron Brooks in rounds 7-8? RBs by now are sketchy - Dayne MAY still be there, other than him, you're looking at DeAngelo Williams, Chris Brown, Curtis Martin, and LenDale White. One more reason why I think round 5 is best spent on an RB. At the WR spot, we see Michael Clayton, Reggie Brown, Rod Smith, and Nate Burleson. I'm personally not enamored with any of those guys, and think equal production can be found in rounds 7-10, so I think I'd go QB here.
Thus, to sum up, my thinking right now would likely land me a first 6 picks of :
QB : Bulger
RB1 : Steven Jackson
RB2 : Reggie Bush
RB3 : Dominic Rhodes
WR1 : Torry Holt
WR2: Donald Driver
Another possible outcome :
QB : Bledsoe
RB1 : Rudi Johnson
RB2 : Warrick Dunn
RB3 : Ron Dayne
WR1 : Chad Johnson
WR2 : Javon Walker
What do you guys think of these two starts? What might you do differently?
Let's get some good dialogue going.
No way on Earth Holt drops to #28. I see a run on receivers starting around the top of round 2, with CJ, Owens, Smith, Holt, Harrison, and Fitzgerald all likely going in the 2nd, and Moss, BOldin, Chambers, and Ward in the top half of round 3. It's for this exact reason that I am leaning towards going WR in round 2, as I think more receivers than backs come off between 2.5 and 3.8.
What should have been obvious is whether I was referring to a 10 or 12 team league since it clearly states it in at least 2 different places, particularly the initial post.
