David Yudkin
Footballguy
Since everyone and their brother has started threads on thoughts and predictions, I'd figured I 'd get into the mix. I would look for more things to point out, but I have a full slate of things to do. In any event . . .
PLAYERS TO MONITOR (or guys that have piqued my interest) . . .
1) WR Mohamed Massoquoi CLE
Yes, I know the Browns offense coould be putrid and they have Jake Delhomme to lead the offense. He of the 8 TD and 18 INT last year to go along with his 5 pick game against the Cards the year before. But Delhomme has looked good in the preseason (for whatever that's worth). Yes, Massoguoi is largely unproven.
BUT DID YOU KNOW . . . that in the 5 years that Delhomme was mostly healthy and played in at least 12 games, his #1 receiver has ranked 15, 1, 1, 8, and 5? (4 years of Smith and 1 year of Muhammad).
Delhomme has long been known to have tunnel vision and for locking on and tracking one guy the entire season. It could very well be Massoquoi.
But it doesn't stop there. Smith has missed games almost every year, so running the numbers through the FBG supercomputer, it turns out that in those 5 years, on a fantasy ppg basis, the CAR leading receiver each year averaged 13.2 fantasy ppg (0 ppr). The #1 fantasy receiver last year was Andre Johnson . . . who averaged 13.2 fantasy ppg.
2) RB Ronnie Brown MIA
I know, I know he's had one 1,000 yard rushing season and he made it by a whopping 8 yards. He seems to have injury after injury and misses more time than Steven Jackson does.
BUT DID YOU KNOW . . . over the past 3 seasons, he's ranked 8th in fantasy ppg. With Brandon Marshall in town, teams won't be able to stack the box and cheat on the run. Ricky Williams is 33 with over 2,100 carries. The Dolphins got way more mileage than they should have last year from Ricky. If, and it's a big if, Brown can stay healthy and he just keeps doing what he's been doing, he is almost a lock to be Top 10.
3) QB Vince Young TEN
No one really paid much attention to the Titans after they started the year 0-6 and got smoked by the Patriots. And with Chris Johnson going off for 2K yards, people really ignored Vince Young. Apathy would describe the general foorball populus.
BUT DID YOU KNOW . . . in the 2 months after taking over as the Titans starting QB, even with the putrid reeciving targets in TEN and with no one really standing out, Young was a QB1 in most 12-team leagues and most scoring systems. (To clarify, once the Titans were out of it late in the season and with Johnson needing more carries to get to 2,000 yards, Young was not quite as effective in the last week or two of the season.)
If Kenny Britt can do anything this year, Young should be in line for a surprise fantasy season and can be had well past all the other starters and most backups. Remember, he hadn't even practiced all that much before taking over the first team offense and barely played the season before, so it had been over a year since he say an meaningful action or first team practice reps.
4) WR Derrick Mason BAL
Sure, I get that Boldin was brought in. And TJH was just signed (CHAMPIONSHIP!). And Stallworth is the new deep threat. And Mason is old and at one point retired last year. I get that.
BUT DID YOU NOW . . . that with the following players under suspension or not on a roster (Burress, Jackson, Bryant, Holmes), Mason will suit up this week with the 18th highest fantasy ppg total of all WR over the past 3 seasons. He has been a target magnet and is Flacco's favorite target (nearly 9 targets a game over the past 48 games).
I don't care who the Ravens added, a QB's favorite target will remain his favorite target. Flacco clearly looks to Mason first and trusts him implicitly. He's not going to go away from his bread and butter just because some other guys that are new to the team and the system were added.
Mason's stock and late draft ADP have plummeted, but I still see him as the primary receiver in BAL.
5) WR Jordan Shipley CIN
This one is more of a hunch as there is no track record to go on. Shipley has been flying way under the radar and has been a fantasy after thought with the Owens/Ocho/Bryant triumpherant that was going to get rolled out. But Bryant was cut, Caldwell doesn't excite me, and from what I have heard the Bengals love Shipley. He's said to know every route inside and out, has been studying film extensively, is the son of a coach, has a coach's mentality, and catches anything thrown his way.
With teams having to consider doubling Ocho and Owens, if Shipley can work on getting separation, he should be able to have some decent weeks getting constant single coverage even as a rookie.
PLAYERS TO MONITOR (or guys that have piqued my interest) . . .
1) WR Mohamed Massoquoi CLE
Yes, I know the Browns offense coould be putrid and they have Jake Delhomme to lead the offense. He of the 8 TD and 18 INT last year to go along with his 5 pick game against the Cards the year before. But Delhomme has looked good in the preseason (for whatever that's worth). Yes, Massoguoi is largely unproven.
BUT DID YOU KNOW . . . that in the 5 years that Delhomme was mostly healthy and played in at least 12 games, his #1 receiver has ranked 15, 1, 1, 8, and 5? (4 years of Smith and 1 year of Muhammad).
Delhomme has long been known to have tunnel vision and for locking on and tracking one guy the entire season. It could very well be Massoquoi.
But it doesn't stop there. Smith has missed games almost every year, so running the numbers through the FBG supercomputer, it turns out that in those 5 years, on a fantasy ppg basis, the CAR leading receiver each year averaged 13.2 fantasy ppg (0 ppr). The #1 fantasy receiver last year was Andre Johnson . . . who averaged 13.2 fantasy ppg.
2) RB Ronnie Brown MIA
I know, I know he's had one 1,000 yard rushing season and he made it by a whopping 8 yards. He seems to have injury after injury and misses more time than Steven Jackson does.
BUT DID YOU KNOW . . . over the past 3 seasons, he's ranked 8th in fantasy ppg. With Brandon Marshall in town, teams won't be able to stack the box and cheat on the run. Ricky Williams is 33 with over 2,100 carries. The Dolphins got way more mileage than they should have last year from Ricky. If, and it's a big if, Brown can stay healthy and he just keeps doing what he's been doing, he is almost a lock to be Top 10.
3) QB Vince Young TEN
No one really paid much attention to the Titans after they started the year 0-6 and got smoked by the Patriots. And with Chris Johnson going off for 2K yards, people really ignored Vince Young. Apathy would describe the general foorball populus.
BUT DID YOU KNOW . . . in the 2 months after taking over as the Titans starting QB, even with the putrid reeciving targets in TEN and with no one really standing out, Young was a QB1 in most 12-team leagues and most scoring systems. (To clarify, once the Titans were out of it late in the season and with Johnson needing more carries to get to 2,000 yards, Young was not quite as effective in the last week or two of the season.)
If Kenny Britt can do anything this year, Young should be in line for a surprise fantasy season and can be had well past all the other starters and most backups. Remember, he hadn't even practiced all that much before taking over the first team offense and barely played the season before, so it had been over a year since he say an meaningful action or first team practice reps.
4) WR Derrick Mason BAL
Sure, I get that Boldin was brought in. And TJH was just signed (CHAMPIONSHIP!). And Stallworth is the new deep threat. And Mason is old and at one point retired last year. I get that.
BUT DID YOU NOW . . . that with the following players under suspension or not on a roster (Burress, Jackson, Bryant, Holmes), Mason will suit up this week with the 18th highest fantasy ppg total of all WR over the past 3 seasons. He has been a target magnet and is Flacco's favorite target (nearly 9 targets a game over the past 48 games).
I don't care who the Ravens added, a QB's favorite target will remain his favorite target. Flacco clearly looks to Mason first and trusts him implicitly. He's not going to go away from his bread and butter just because some other guys that are new to the team and the system were added.
Mason's stock and late draft ADP have plummeted, but I still see him as the primary receiver in BAL.
5) WR Jordan Shipley CIN
This one is more of a hunch as there is no track record to go on. Shipley has been flying way under the radar and has been a fantasy after thought with the Owens/Ocho/Bryant triumpherant that was going to get rolled out. But Bryant was cut, Caldwell doesn't excite me, and from what I have heard the Bengals love Shipley. He's said to know every route inside and out, has been studying film extensively, is the son of a coach, has a coach's mentality, and catches anything thrown his way.
With teams having to consider doubling Ocho and Owens, if Shipley can work on getting separation, he should be able to have some decent weeks getting constant single coverage even as a rookie.
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He's a pretty good Muhsin clone if you're gonna play the "5 years ago when Delhomme still had an arm" game.
