A discussion on WAR (1 Viewer)

[guru_007]

I very much enjoy baseball statistics, and WAR in particular is a very interesting metric, but does anyone really understand how it is calculated?  

For instance I'd like to compare two very awesome seasons.

Player A

746 PA's, 213 hits, 25 doubles, 15 triples, 46 hrs, 121 runs, 139 rbis, .315 ave, .970 OPS, 157 OPS+

Player B

717 PA's, 210 hits, 46 doubles, 5 triples, 34 hrs, 99 runs 114 rbis, .323 ave .940 ops, 162 OPS+

These are two obviously outstanding seasons, both MVP like.  What surprises me is that Player B's offensive WAR was 9.2.  Player A's offensive WAR was 6.7.  That's a pretty massive difference and to me it looks like Player A's season was at least equal if not better than Player B's.  Am I missing something here that would factor into one player's stats.

I'm just curious mostly.  

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I very much enjoy baseball statistics, and WAR in particular is a very interesting metric, but does anyone really understand how it is calculated?  

For instance I'd like to compare two very awesome seasons.

Player A

746 PA's, 213 hits, 25 doubles, 15 triples, 46 hrs, 121 runs, 139 rbis, .315 ave, .970 OPS, 157 OPS+

Player B

717 PA's, 210 hits, 46 doubles, 5 triples, 34 hrs, 99 runs 114 rbis, .323 ave .940 ops, 162 OPS+

These are two obviously outstanding seasons, both MVP like.  What surprises me is that Player B's offensive WAR was 9.2.  Player A's offensive WAR was 6.7.  That's a pretty massive difference and to me it looks like Player A's season was at least equal if not better than Player B's.  Am I missing something here that would factor into one player's stats.

I'm just curious mostly.  

did these occur in the same year?  it's relative to the rest of the league for that year, right?  Maybe not, as fangraphs says it context, league and park neutral.  https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Also WAR includes defense also though, right?

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

 

[guru_007]

did these occur in the same year?  it's relative to the rest of the league for that year, right?  Maybe not, as fangraphs says it context, league and park neutral.  https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Also WAR includes defense also though, right?

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

Well, WAR does include defense, but the figures I posted above were only offensive WAR totals.

They did not occur in the same year, but they were within 15 years of each other.  I didn't pull one sample from the 1920's and the other from early 2000s.  These players careers overlapped each other.  They played in the same league, same division.  Different parks, but I mean Player A led the majors in all of the stats detailed above except doubles, average and runs.  Player B led the majors in no categories. 

Seems crazy to me that Player B's offensive season was SIGNIFICANTLY worth more games than Player's A, but obviously I'm missing something

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Well, WAR does include defense, but the figures I posted above were only offensive WAR totals.

They did not occur in the same year, but they were within 15 years of each other.  I didn't pull one sample from the 1920's and the other from early 2000s.  These players careers overlapped each other.  They played in the same league, same division.  Different parks, but I mean Player A led the majors in all of the stats detailed above except doubles, average and runs.  Player B led the majors in no categories. 

Seems crazy to me that Player B's offensive season was SIGNIFICANTLY worth more games than Player's A, but obviously I'm missing something

sorry, I missed a couple things in your initial explanation.

I think other things that may be missing in your stat line are walks and stolen bases/baserunning.  WOBA and Baseruns are key components of the stat.

I am also still unclear whether position comes into play with oWAR (e.g. relative only to other players at your position) or if that only affects dWAR.

 

[oso diablo]

Well, WAR does include defense, but the figures I posted above were only offensive WAR totals.

They did not occur in the same year, but they were within 15 years of each other.  I didn't pull one sample from the 1920's and the other from early 2000s.  These players careers overlapped each other.  They played in the same league, same division.  Different parks, but I mean Player A led the majors in all of the stats detailed above except doubles, average and runs.  Player B led the majors in no categories. 

Seems crazy to me that Player B's offensive season was SIGNIFICANTLY worth more games than Player's A, but obviously I'm missing something

well, 15 years can be very important, especially if we're talking about, say 2000 vs 2015. There was about a 20% difference in runs scored.

Ballpark DOES matter, too (that's what fangraphs means when they say it's park-neutral). So, say Coors Field vs. Petco makes a huge difference.

Defensive position does not matter when it comes to offensive WAR.

 

[PIK95]

Stats like WAR are ruining baseball imo.  I miss the good old days when all that mattered were the triple crown stats and sb's was the cool stat.  Everyone would talk about it at school and work.  Now I'm too embarrassed to even try and mention WAR in front of people.  R.I.P. baseball by 2050.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Figuring out defensive WAR has always seemed tricky to quantify.

Today, in the Cubs/Phillies game, Kyle Schwarber badly misjudged the angle of a ball, letting it get past him. But then he made an excellent right on target throw to Kris Bryant to get the batter out at third.

How does that get credited? If he had played the ball right, the batter would have reached second with a double, but the superb throw took him off the basepaths. It seems too simple to say they cancel each other out.

 

[oso diablo]

Defensive position does not matter when it comes to offensive WAR.

i was wrong about this part. when separating total WAR into the offensive and defensive subcomponents, there actually IS an adjustment for both parts. 

and that is likely the chief explanation for why Cal Ripken's 1991 season rates so much higher than Jim Rice's 1978 season, even on oWAR.

 

[guru_007]

i was wrong about this part. when separating total WAR into the offensive and defensive subcomponents, there actually IS an adjustment for both parts. 

and that is likely the chief explanation for why Cal Ripken's 1991 season rates so much higher than Jim Rice's 1978 season, even on oWAR.

I figured positions had to be a component.  Ripken's 1991 oWAR numbers are insane in my eyes.  It's also higher than Miggy's 2012 triple crown winning year by a wide margin, but I didnt think it would be fair to compare stats from 2013 v 1991.  I also excluded the Coors guys due to park effect.  But still, I didn't think Ripken's year was that good.

 

[Hov34]

i was wrong about this part. when separating total WAR into the offensive and defensive subcomponents, there actually IS an adjustment for both parts. 

and that is likely the chief explanation for why Cal Ripken's 1991 season rates so much higher than Jim Rice's 1978 season, even on oWAR.

I figured positions had to be a component.  Ripken's 1991 oWAR numbers are insane in my eyes.  It's also higher than Miggy's 2012 triple crown winning year by a wide margin, but I didnt think it would be fair to compare stats from 2013 v 1991.  I also excluded the Coors guys due to park effect.  But still, I didn't think Ripken's year was that good.

"Replacement Player" relative to that position.  A lot easier to find a LF or 1B that compares to Rice and Miggy than a SS that compared to Ripken in 1991.

 

[jiffy]

Stats like WAR are ruining baseball imo.

Yep.  This is 100% true.

Get rid of StatCast while you are at it.

 

[Epic Problem]

 

 

[guru_007]

Going back to the well here, I really think I've over-relied in the past on WAR as a metric to evaluate players. 

I'm an unabashed Jeff Kent guy.  I'm going over his 'case' for the HOF here and well I'm not sure how good it looks in particular when evaluating him against his peers using WAR.  But when I dig deeper I am just not getting it.

In 1991, Willie Randolph played 124 games at 2B for the Brewers.  He had 17 extra base hits TOTAL (14 doubles and 3 triples) in over 500 PA's leading to a .374 slugging percentage.  He had 60 runs scored, and 54 rbi's - and a total of 4 SB's.  I would say pedestrian stats at best.  Yet, his oWAR that year was 4.1 .  Say what?  gtfoh.

In 1994 Jeff Kent played 107 games at 2B for the NYM.  14 hr's, 68 rbis, 53 runs with 1 sb.  This with about 450 pa's.  So I mean other than a lower OBP, he's pretty much at least on par or better than Randolph's year above.  And I mean it's just a few years difference yet his oWAR that year was 2.2.  

I know WAR is blind to the player name but a dude in the 90's with 17 extra base hits for the year and not stealing about 60 bases with a oWAR over four seems a bit, odd.

 

[Epic Problem]

So a .424 OBP over 512 PAs is pedestrian?  Among 2B with at least 500 PAs in a season, its tied for the 4th best OBP since 1990.

It was also 2nd best in all of baseball in 1991.

Making outs is bad and WAR knows this. 

Not putting the ball in play, striking out is even worse, and WAR knows this. His 1991 K rate of 7.4% is tied for 44th among 2Bs over that 1990 - present time frame and was 11th lowest in all of baseball in 1991

Meanwhile, 1994 Jeff Kent got on base at a .341 clip (51st out of 68 batters with 450 PAs that year) and K'd in 18.6% of his ABs (58th out of the same 68 batters)

 

[guru_007]

Seems to me that it's way overvaluating getting on base for WAR.     Dude had 17 extra base hits for the entire season.  Walks don't necessarily create runs.  Further, getting on base to me would have more importance if you were a good base runner and able to take advantage of being on base.  I dunno.  I know I am kinda cherry picking around here, but to me runs created should have more of a weighting in evaluating offensive wins above replacement.  

 

[Eephus]

Jeff Kent gets a mandatory points deduction for being a jerk

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Jeff Kent gets a mandatory points deduction for being a jerk

Yes, I remember that vowel in his last name being changed to a different one a lot.

 

[Spartans Rule]

MLB teams averaged 4.31 runs per game in 1991 and 4.92 in 1994, so that's a significant change to the replacement level they're trying to get above.

Even without taking that into account, a .424 OBP is excellent.

 

[Don Quixote]

Yes, I remember that vowel in his last name being changed to a different one a lot.

He did remind me of Immanuel Kant.

 

[heckmanm]

He did remind me of Immanuel Kant.

:golfclap:

 

[oso diablo]

He did remind me of Immanuel Kant.

this post was categorically imperative

 

[Mr. Mojo]

My friends and I are into many baseball stats and we all agree that WAR is fairly useless. For one thing, different sites seem to calculate it differently as opposed to other calculations that are practically set in stone (OBP, slugging %, ERA, etc)

 

[PIK95]

I still hate all the nerd stats.  Give me the classics back please.

 

[cheese]

"Replacement Player" relative to that position.  A lot easier to find a LF or 1B that compares to Rice and Miggy than a SS that compared to Ripken in 1991.

This is even more true looking back.  People thinking in terms of 2018 hitters don’t account for just how bad middle infielders were at hitting 25 years ago. Almost every “this WAR is way too high!” example comes from older middle infielders. 

 

[guru_007]

Almost every “this WAR is way too high!” example comes from older middle infielders

Well this is me.

Bucky Dent in 1974 had a 2.5 oWAR.  His offensive stats that year?  5 hrs, 45 rbis, 55 runs 3 sb's and a .316 obp, .662 ops and 89 ops+ 

That is disgusting.  He played in 154 games and that is worth 2 1/2 games better than replacement?  

 

[Spartans Rule]

Well this is me.

Bucky Dent in 1974 had a 2.5 oWAR.  His offensive stats that year?  5 hrs, 45 rbis, 55 runs 3 sb's and a .316 obp, .662 ops and 89 ops+ 

That is disgusting.  He played in 154 games and that is worth 2 1/2 games better than replacement?  

Also in 1974, Red Sox SS Mario Guerrero slashed 246/282/282 with a 58 OPS+ in 304 PA. He had 8 extra-base hits and ground into 12 double plays. His oWAR was 0.1.

If that’s above replacement level, than Bucky ####### Dent was actually pretty awesome.

 

[Spartans Rule]

And 1974 is nothing. You want to get really gross, check out Cardinals SS Dal Maxvill’s 1968.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

And 1974 is nothing. You want to get really gross, check out Cardinals SS Dal Maxvill’s 1968.

Larry Bowa's 1984 line for a championship caliber Cubs team is something to behold in an awful sort of way. Ryne Sandberg accumulated more in any given month than Bowa did with over four hundred PA's.  

 

[Hov34]

I still hate all the nerd stats.  Give me the classics back please.

Great, this how Don Baylor wins an MVP.

 

[shadyridr]

I didn't realize dWAR for first baseman almost always is in the negatives. I realize now they are comparing first baseman defense to all positions. But then when combining with offense a gold glove first baseman will almost always have worse a WAR than an average fielding SS with comparable offensive numbers. Seems silly.