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A question for David Dodds (1 Viewer)

ATG

Footballguy
I know that I will be accused of being overly critical for posing this question, but here goes. I have been utilizing David Dodds MyFBG rankings for my drafts.He is great.That being said I found todays twitter interview very disturbing. When asked what player he would definitely not select at any draft position,he mentioned M J Drew, yet he ranks him sixth overall, ahead of Brady, Richardson, C Johnson, D Mcfadden etc. Based on his projections I have him in first round in 2 of. my 3 drafts so far. Please explain.By the way. He ranks A Peterson at 61 consistent with his take on his injuries.

 
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I think his interview explains it pretty well. Projectiions are based on a "healthy" MJD staying healthy, but DD doesn't want to take the risk that he doesn't. That's entirely different than reducing ADP's projections because of an injury he already has.

 
If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.

 
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If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.
You're responsible for your own picks.Own it.
 
If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.
And if his bone-on-bone condition doesn't affect him this year? Come December you'd be complaining that Dodds prevented you from drafting the #5 (or whatever) RB because of his irrational concerns.
 
I think his interview explains it pretty well. Projectiions are based on a "healthy" MJD staying healthy, but DD doesn't want to take the risk that he doesn't. That's entirely different than reducing ADP's projections because of an injury he already has.
thats poor projecting. you should math the probability of mjd missing games or whatever risk you deem which should reduce his ranking accordingly. based on that reduced ranking if he will never be availale at the spot you would be comfortable taking him that is a different story...i.e. mjd is reduced to only taking him as a 4th round pick which means he would necer draft him since he would not be there.
 
If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.
You're responsible for your own picks.Own it.
Wait.... we don't pay for Dodd's to draft our team?I WANT A REFUND!
 
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I know that I will be accused of being overly critical for posing this question, but here goes. I have been utilizing David Dodds MyFBG rankings for my drafts.He is great.That being said I found todays twitter interview very disturbing. When asked what player he would definitely not select at any draft position,he mentioned M J Drew, yet he ranks him sixth overall, ahead of Brady, Richardson, C Johnson, D Mcfadden etc. Based on his projections I have him in first round in 2 of. my 3 drafts so far. Please explain.By the way. He ranks A Peterson at 61 consistent with his take on his injuries.
Use this site as a resource to bounce ideas, gauge value, find diamonds in rough etc. But if u think this site has all the "experts" that know everything such as when to draft said player, who to draft, where to draft them and all your other questions your in the wrong hobby. No one knows what will happen on gameday, nobody. This game is based purely on luck at the end of the day so learn to enjoy it for what it is, a game. I promise the pressure will ease and you will enjoy it even more.
 
I invest hundreds of dollars a year playing this game. I chose this site due to Dodds proven success over the years. As a logical person all I'm asking for is logic in the position you take.Dont rank someone sixth and then say you wouldnt draft him in the Sixteenth round.

 
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I invest hundreds of dollars a year playing this game. I chose this site due to Dodds proven success over the years. As a logical person all I'm asking for is logic in the position you take.Dont rank someone sixth and then say you wouldnt draft him in the Sixteenth round.
Ok just my 2 cents.Rankings are devised to serve a wide audience, If I was to publish rankings for use by a general audience I would have to rank Andre Johnson somewhere in the first 2-3 rounds, because of his likely potential scoring. I myself would not take him until much much later as I am not risking my team on his past injuries and the games he has cost me.Just because I would not draft a player for whatever reason does not mean that the particular player should be ranked lower.JMHO
 
I'm just asking for consistency.If you rank Peterson 61 due to concerns about recovering from injury,then do the same for Drew.Peterson may fully recover and be the number one back but you have decided to factor in the risk that this doesnt occur.

 
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If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.
You're responsible for your own picks.Own it.
Wait.... we don't pay for Dodd's to draft our team?I WANT A REFUND!
it's not that you are paying Dodd's to draft your team, it's that Dodd's is covering all his bases on this one. MJD runs for 1800 yards? Dodd's had him at #6. MJD holds out for 8 weeks, Dodd's said he wouldn't go near him. It doesn't matter if he had him at #6 or #106, just be consistent in your rankings so that the subscriber can form a useful opinion on where he stands. Otherwise he is of no use to use as a secondary source.
 
I invest hundreds of dollars a year playing this game. I chose this site due to Dodds proven success over the years. As a logical person all I'm asking for is logic in the position you take.Dont rank someone sixth and then say you wouldnt draft him in the Sixteenth round.
View PostATG, on 24 June 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.

If you are dropping serious cash on this game, then you have no business depending on other "experts". You should be doing your own projections and your own gut feeling. If I was dropping cash on the game, there is absolutely no way I would depend on other people's projections. I don't care how good their reputation is, I am still responsible for making my picks. You are simply looking for an excuse when you lose. We have a shirt for that. :ptts:

Even the best "experts" are only a hair above 60% correct at the end of the year. That's just a shade better than 50/50. Good luck depending on those.

 
I invest hundreds of dollars a year playing this game. I chose this site due to Dodds proven success over the years. As a logical person all I'm asking for is logic in the position you take.Dont rank someone sixth and then say you wouldnt draft him in the Sixteenth round.
So if you are intelligent as well, use your logic and don't rely solely on any website (even a pay website) to make all of your decisions for you. They are a guide. You have to use them in context along with your own experience and knowledge of your leagues' rules.Your numerous post complaints have already been well chronicled (thanks rizzler)... I'm certain Joe and David don't want to lose you as a customer, but if you use the very logic you request and you are consistently unhappy with the product you are receiving, most logical people would look elsewhere.

The reality is no matter how much you pay, no one can play the game for you (which is what you appear to desire). Without even looking, it's obvious that you are new here, and for whatever reason you've felt the need to announce your presence in the absolute worst way. You might consider addressing your concerns privately with Joe and David in the future because your public rants make you look like someone who seriously doesn't have a clue.

 
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I invest hundreds of dollars a year playing this game. I chose this site due to Dodds proven success over the years. As a logical person all I'm asking for is logic in the position you take.Dont rank someone sixth and then say you wouldnt draft him in the Sixteenth round.
I really don't think that's what he means...I assume he means that he wouldn't draft someone at their ADP, and when he says "any draft position", he means regardless of how high or low that ADP is. The second part of the question seems to suggest this.
Name two players that will not be on your roster at any draft position. Explain why you think these busts could drastically underperform their ADP:
There's just no way he meant that he wouldn't take the leading rusher from last year in any round due to a perceived potential for future injury.
 
So is this guy a sctick, or actually this clueless?

Personally, I don't want to touch MJD until late 2nd/early 3rd this season, more due to the contract issues than health reasons. Because of that, I likely won't end up with him on any of my teams this year.

 
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If he has serious concerns based on Drews bone on bone condition then this should have been reflected in his personal rankings.Even ranking him 15th instead of 6th would have spared me from drafting him twice so far.
So you play fantasy football based on what everyone else thinks? I might use other sites/peoples rankings to guide my way, but if I like a player and want him I will draft him regardless of what others say. It is your pick own up to it, or send you money to Dodds and let him play fantasy leagues for you.
 
OP is a total schmuck.
:thumbdown: The guy is asking a question, stop acting like a bunch of uptight know-it-all jerks. He expects honest feedback from this site for the money he puts into it, then the owner of the site makes a statement which is a contradiction to his own rankings. ADP 6th overall and states he would not draft him. I think if that is the case, unless he is trying to mislead people (Which I am sure he is not), correct the rankings. I am sure if he was there at the end of round 2, he would jump on him, but he is clearly saying he would not take him at #6, which is exactly where he ranks him. Very fair question, you people need to relax a bit.
 
OP is a total schmuck.
:thumbdown: The guy is asking a question, stop acting like a bunch of uptight know-it-all jerks. He expects honest feedback from this site for the money he puts into it, then the owner of the site makes a statement which is a contradiction to his own rankings. ADP 6th overall and states he would not draft him. I think if that is the case, unless he is trying to mislead people (Which I am sure he is not), correct the rankings. I am sure if he was there at the end of round 2, he would jump on him, but he is clearly saying he would not take him at #6, which is exactly where he ranks him. Very fair question, you people need to relax a bit.
Click on the OP, then his content.
 
Exactly Desmond... I enjoy reading your posts, but you need to read up on this guy's short history in this case. He already has a dozen or so complaint threads and just joined in February.

If this post was his first complaint, you wouldn't be seeing the same response. It's not this particular question that's at issue, all the guy has done is complain about one thing or another from the day he signed up.

 
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I'm a new subscriber so I've asked several questions regarding when certain site features would become available. I feel that I've raised a legitamite question here. I had hopes that this would be an open forum in which one could express ideas and pose questions. I'll refrain from posting in the future. Sorry if I offended anyone.

 
Exactly Desmond... I enjoy reading your posts, but you need to read up on this guy's short history in this case.
Thank you. I apologize, I honestly never look at that stuff, I read the questions and responses and that is all I responded to. This may be a case of someone trolling/fishing or whatever, but this is a fantasy football site and the question seemed valid. I just hate seeing people get jumped on when they go against the norm or don't just conform like everyone else. This may be a case where the OP had it coming, I just usually try to give the benefit of the doubt. (Sorry for the use of an idiom on the forum)
 
I think this is a somewhat valid thread but IMO it is due to the fact that Dodds' rankings are sort of a weighted average of the range of possibilities. The problem is that very few projection systems reflect how much risk is involved in a player. It would be nice if they included upside and downside projections along with an estimate of the probability of each occuring. That would allow owners who are more risk averse to avoid players who have more boom or bust potential.

 
OP is a total schmuck.
:thumbdown: The guy is asking a question, stop acting like a bunch of uptight know-it-all jerks. He expects honest feedback from this site for the money he puts into it, then the owner of the site makes a statement which is a contradiction to his own rankings. ADP 6th overall and states he would not draft him. I think if that is the case, unless he is trying to mislead people (Which I am sure he is not), correct the rankings. I am sure if he was there at the end of round 2, he would jump on him, but he is clearly saying he would not take him at #6, which is exactly where he ranks him. Very fair question, you people need to relax a bit.
Click on the OP, then his content.
I originally thought the OP raised a valid question, but after looking at all his content it appears all he does is start complaint threads. Makes me wonder if he works for an alternative site. If not, and if you have that many criticisms, I would write a private email to the owner.
 
Projections and Rankings are 2 different things. Correct?
Correct.If someone does projections, thats all they are, projections. It doesn't necessarily mean that the person doing the projections would necessarily draft someone at that position. Let's say for example that I have MJD as the 6th best runningback based on how I project him to perform. I could decide not to draft him at that ranking based on my personal opinion/strategy to not draft any Jaguar players this season.If projections and rankings were directly tied together, I would project MJD for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns so that I ensure that I do not draft him. I could also omit MJD entirely from my projections to ensure I don't draft him. If I were to do that, I'd be criticized for producing an unrealistic projection or for omitting him entirely.
 
'bagger said:
'apalmer said:
I think his interview explains it pretty well. Projectiions are based on a "healthy" MJD staying healthy, but DD doesn't want to take the risk that he doesn't. That's entirely different than reducing ADP's projections because of an injury he already has.
thats poor projecting. you should math the probability of mjd missing games or whatever risk you deem which should reduce his ranking accordingly. based on that reduced ranking if he will never be availale at the spot you would be comfortable taking him that is a different story...i.e. mjd is reduced to only taking him as a 4th round pick which means he would necer draft him since he would not be there.
cant do that. here's whysay you do the math and you expect mjd to average 20 ppg but miss the last 6/16 games. where do you rank him?do you put him with a healthy turner, who will score 200 total points this season as well? no, because when mjd is out, you are not taking a 0 at that position. you are replacing him with your rb3. now who is that? how many teas are in your league? you cant take that into account with rankings that are for everyone.do you rank him with mccoy at 20ppg? no, because you expect him to miss 6 games. the games that he misses will be replaced with your rb3. are you in a 16 team league? which would be someone like mcgehee, or a 10 team league? which would be someone like reggie bush. big difference.in between? ok, where? you total production from mjd and his 10 games will vary drastically depending on many other factors that cannot be covered in a single rankings sheet.what im saying is, you can do this, but only for yourself. you can't do this once for everyone. that would make for incredibly inaccurate rankings.
 
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I know that I will be accused of being overly critical for posing this question, but here goes. I have been utilizing David Dodds MyFBG rankings for my drafts.He is great.That being said I found todays twitter interview very disturbing. When asked what player he would definitely not select at any draft position,he mentioned M J Drew, yet he ranks him sixth overall, ahead of Brady, Richardson, C Johnson, D Mcfadden etc. Based on his projections I have him in first round in 2 of. my 3 drafts so far. Please explain.By the way. He ranks A Peterson at 61 consistent with his take on his injuries.
This is one of those situations where Dodds cant win. if he ranks MJD at 12 or 15 (or wherever Dodds would draft him at) he will get roasted for ranking him so low.The reality, he has ranked him at 6 but feels he is not willing to take the risk to draft him there because of his chances of getting injured. That's about as fair as it gets.There are a lot of people I rank higher than what I'd draft them for for the very same reason.What I'd actually like to see in a ranking system is a system that ranks them based on stat projections, then gives a second rank based on where you should draft them based on all risk/return factors. In my hockey pool rankings, I ranked one player at 10, but listed him at good value to draft at 25 due to injury, feud with coach, and off ice issues. That's not to say he wont put up top 10 numbers. There's a good chance that he will. it just means you draft him in a different place due to the risks.it's just like your sleepers. You may think an upstart receiver they will put up WR1 numbers, but that does not mean it's smart to draft them as a WR1. You win drafts when you can draft guys like that as WR2 or WR3. When a guy has off field issues or injury issues, that top 10 ranking probably means you actually draft him 1 or 2 rounds later due to the issue. Inevitably, there is someone who overvalues this 'proven' player every year and drafts him early. All he is saying is dont do it. Fair advice overall. That's all I have to say.
 
I will not be drafting Calvin Johnson. I believe in the Madden curse. Does that mean I shouldn't rank him top 5 for WRs? Should he be removed from my list? Stupid OP.

 
The OP definitely has issues, but there's also a good point in there somewhere.

First, I'll say that obviously FBG should only be used as a helpful source of information, not a rigid order from which to draft from.

With that said, those of you saying "Dodds didn't force you to draft MJD" are totally missing the point. The rankings are next to worthless if they don't even reflect the view of the expert who is compiling them. Why base MJD's ranking on him playing 16 games if you guess that he'll only play 8 (hypothetical)?

This guy clearly values Dodds' opinions, I'm guessing enough to pay for the content later, but Dodds' rankings clearly don't accurately reflect his opinions on the players.

Ranking players based on 'best case scenario' makes no sense and seems pretty lazy to be honest. I expect more from the best FF site around. I agree with a prior post saying it's probably just to cover all the bases at the end of the season. I'm a yearly paying subscriber and would hope that the rankings accurately reflect the opinions of the writers/experts when we get closer to the season.

 
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OP is a total schmuck.
:thumbdown: The guy is asking a question, stop acting like a bunch of uptight know-it-all jerks. He expects honest feedback from this site for the money he puts into it, then the owner of the site makes a statement which is a contradiction to his own rankings. ADP 6th overall and states he would not draft him. I think if that is the case, unless he is trying to mislead people (Which I am sure he is not), correct the rankings. I am sure if he was there at the end of round 2, he would jump on him, but he is clearly saying he would not take him at #6, which is exactly where he ranks him. Very fair question, you people need to relax a bit.
Click on the OP, then his content.
I don't care what else he has posted. I don't see how it isn't a fair question. Even if he is trolling, the question seems legitimate.
 
I feel that I've raised a legitamite question here.
It is a legitimate question, but it is easily explained.Anyone who publishes rankings/projections for general public consumption has to hedge their bets and stay somewhat close to the general consensus rankings put out by everyone else. They have to keep that "gut feeling" in check a little bit. If they went wildly off-page then they would risk being rejected by the consuming public (i.e. people that pay for their web site and information). So if he ranked MJD down to Round 16, there would be far more people crying foul about that, as compared to just this one thread talking about his current rank.

And to explain this specific case - MJD put up great numbers last year and didn't miss a single game, even after people were questioning his knee a year ago during the 2011 pre-season. So to say that THIS will be the year he struggles with injury is just a gut feeling, not a projection. And Dodds has handled those two things properly in this case. He gave his projection for mass consumption, and then talked about his gut feeling, which is also valuable info that you should take into account. If you share that gut feeling or opinion about a player, you should actually be thankful that the consensus rankings don't reflect that, so the other less-informed drafters in your league will jump on that land mine for you.

 
I know that I will be accused of being overly critical for posing this question, but here goes. I have been utilizing David Dodds MyFBG rankings for my drafts.He is great.That being said I found todays twitter interview very disturbing. When asked what player he would definitely not select at any draft position,he mentioned M J Drew, yet he ranks him sixth overall, ahead of Brady, Richardson, C Johnson, D Mcfadden etc. Based on his projections I have him in first round in 2 of. my 3 drafts so far. Please explain.By the way. He ranks A Peterson at 61 consistent with his take on his injuries.
This is one of those situations where Dodds cant win. if he ranks MJD at 12 or 15 (or wherever Dodds would draft him at) he will get roasted for ranking him so low.The reality, he has ranked him at 6 but feels he is not willing to take the risk to draft him there because of his chances of getting injured. That's about as fair as it gets.There are a lot of people I rank higher than what I'd draft them for for the very same reason.What I'd actually like to see in a ranking system is a system that ranks them based on stat projections, then gives a second rank based on where you should draft them based on all risk/return factors. In my hockey pool rankings, I ranked one player at 10, but listed him at good value to draft at 25 due to injury, feud with coach, and off ice issues. That's not to say he wont put up top 10 numbers. There's a good chance that he will. it just means you draft him in a different place due to the risks.it's just like your sleepers. You may think an upstart receiver they will put up WR1 numbers, but that does not mean it's smart to draft them as a WR1. You win drafts when you can draft guys like that as WR2 or WR3. When a guy has off field issues or injury issues, that top 10 ranking probably means you actually draft him 1 or 2 rounds later due to the issue. Inevitably, there is someone who overvalues this 'proven' player every year and drafts him early. All he is saying is dont do it. Fair advice overall. That's all I have to say.
I would say that if you are in the business of fantasy football, you should be able to explain why you have someone ranked significantly different than most.I don't understand ranking someone higher than where you draft them. Makes no sense to me at all. Is it just so, you won't feel silly if you are wrong at the end of the season?
 
I think this is a somewhat valid thread but IMO it is due to the fact that Dodds' rankings are sort of a weighted average of the range of possibilities. The problem is that very few projection systems reflect how much risk is involved in a player. It would be nice if they included upside and downside projections along with an estimate of the probability of each occuring. That would allow owners who are more risk averse to avoid players who have more boom or bust potential.
I think some good might be able to come out of this thread if we expand on this topic a little bit. IMO, full replication of stats with a ceiling and a floor would be too much work for anyone doing projections. Projections can be considered old the day after they are published, so the issue is not the work involved with doing this one time before the season starts, but consistently updating and modifying that data would be overload.I think two pieces of "projection data" are missing for a full service FF site. I would like to see some sort of a "ceiling" score and a "lineup risk" score. I will define and then expand on what I mean:

Ceiling Score: Can this player finish as the #1 overall player at his position? Good example for this year is Lloyd. Most people would consider Lloyd an upgrade in 2012 because Tom Brady is now throwing to him. Others think that there are too many mouths to feed in NE, so his ceiling is capped.

Lineup Risk: For some reason, guys like Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne and Chris Johnson are usually healthy and consistent for your fantasy squad. Guys like McFadden, J Best and Antonio Gates are much riskier. I would like to see some sort off a catchall score for "lineup risk" that includes injury, contract issues, possible suspension looming, etc.

One of my techniques when drafting rounds 4-9 is to only draft guys that pass the "eliminate the suck" article test and my own gut feel "Ceiling Score". I do not want guys on low-level offenses and I do not want guys with low ceilings.

How would this data be used? Inside of MyFBG people are setting up their leagues scoring data in order to get a league-specific draft list. It would be really nice if you could continue to customize this list by bolding players with a high ceiling and putting a strike-through on players above my level of risk tolerance. Highlight yellow players that pass the "eliminate the suck" test. Pretty slick visual aid when you have to make a decision under 2 minutes in a live draft...

 
This is why I prefer the later drafts....I can field more of my draftees at the start of the season. Training camp and pre-season have the ability to cause havoc on your roster. Long live the glory of the gridiron.

 
I'm a new subscriber so I've asked several questions regarding when certain site features would become available. I feel that I've raised a legitamite question here. I had hopes that this would be an open forum in which one could express ideas and pose questions. I'll refrain from posting in the future. Sorry if I offended anyone.
Honestly, if this is the case, I will give you an honest answer...I have a good deal of posts logged here and have subscribed for many years...In the case of MJD, I actually agree 100% with Dodds...I feel he is "ranked" as pick 6-8, but I have no intentions of owning him either. My opinion (which I am guessing Dodds also shares) is that there is a "gray area" in drafting between "where they will go, and where they SHOULD go". I have no problem with the statement that Rodgers should go #1 and will even put him in my top 5, but if I am staring at him at 7-9, I am not taking him. Why? Because I feel his value is there, but if I grab a QB there I feel I am a round behind the competition at RB/WR/TE and can't make up for that as well as I can wait on QB, grab an Eli-type in round 5, or even wait and go back-to-back with Cutler Schaub later...basically, I see his value there, and will even rank him there, but don't feel he fits my personal style there. If you have followed the site for a while, Dodds does a "Perfect Draft" article...we do not know what 2012 will say, but years ago, it said to wait on QB, because it was too hard to grab a QB early and make up for the ground of the decision...still believed the Warners of the world were 1st rounders, but he just chose to draft a different style. I believe/hope that (1) makes sense and (2) is the answer the OP is looking for.
 
I don't think it inconsistent to rank a player, like MJD, 6th at his position yet also state that he will NOT be on your team. Think about the radical difference between these two statements; I wouldn't draft MJD as Mr. Irrelevant; and I think the injury risk is too great to draft MJD as high as he will be taken!

Is it "any draft position" or "any draft position (that he would be available)"?

 
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