wasted space 25
Footballguy
I think taking a QB after those 4 RB's is the way to go. Our scoring is 6 pts for TD's including QB's. Am i wrong for going QB there at the 5 spot?
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Aaron Rodgers after big 4 RB's? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wasted space 25
- Start date
which fo?
wasted space 25
Footballguy
Which four? CJ2, AP, Rice, MJD
Donsmith753
Footballguy
You should search for the qb in the first thread and have a read of that
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I've seen him go in the 1st 8 picks in almost every draft I have been in and I think those owners are making a huge mistake.
Unless your feeling a 5000 yard / 40 - 50 TD season coming why not just take Brees or Manning in the 2nd
Unless your feeling a 5000 yard / 40 - 50 TD season coming why not just take Brees or Manning in the 2nd
cr8f
Footballguy
I would add Gore to that. In one league Andre Johnson went 4. I took him at 2.07 here1.01 1. Between the Bunz - bleacher Johnson, Chris TEN RB Sun Jul 18 3:02:40 p.m. ET 20101.02 2. Honey Bunz - Scooby Peterson, Adrian MIN RB Sun Jul 18 3:03:03 p.m. ET 20101.03 3. Land of the Rising Bunz - buddahj Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB Sun Jul 18 3:03:04 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List1.04 4. Blue Steel Bunz - rajncajn Rice, Ray BAL RB Sun Jul 18 3:03:04 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List1.05 5. Bunz n Crumpetz - Monkey One Gore, Frank SFO RB Sun Jul 18 4:35:03 p.m. ET 20101.06 6. No Bunz Intended - Do Jaded Johnson, Andre HOU WR Mon Jul 19 1:13:04 p.m. ET 20101.07 7. Wash Ds Bunz - WashingtonD Turner, Michael ATL RB Mon Jul 19 1:13:05 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on My Draft List1.08 8. Bunz of Fury - smithkt Moss, Randy NEP WR Mon Jul 19 1:38:39 p.m. ET 20101.09 9. Burger Bunz - Shaman Mathews, Ryan SDC RB ® Mon Jul 19 1:44:18 p.m. ET 20101.10 10. Sore Bunz - tbimm Jackson, Steven STL RB Mon Jul 19 1:51:38 p.m. ET 20101.11 11. Got Bunz Hunz? - Scooby's Hubby Grant, Ryan GBP RB Mon Jul 19 2:33:21 p.m. ET 20101.12 12. Mercedes Bunz - Randall Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB Mon Jul 19 2:37:56 p.m. ET 20101.13 13. Bunzilla - Clubfoothead Wayne, Reggie IND WR Mon Jul 19 2:50:55 p.m. ET 20101.14 14. Ittybittybunz - REZ Willis, Patrick SFO LB Mon Jul 19 2:54:58 p.m. ET 20101.15 15. Bunz on the Run - taznib1 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB Mon Jul 19 2:59:33 p.m. ET 20101.16 16. Evil Monkey Bunz - Carry The Rock Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR Mon Jul 19 3:12:00 p.m. ET 20102.01 17. Evil Monkey Bunz - Carry The Rock Austin, Miles DAL WR Mon Jul 19 3:16:24 p.m. ET 20102.02 18. Bunz on the Run - taznib1 Johnson, Calvin DET WR Mon Jul 19 3:23:19 p.m. ET 20102.03 19. Ittybittybunz - REZ Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB Mon Jul 19 3:31:30 p.m. ET 20102.04 20. Bunzilla - Clubfoothead Brees, Drew NOS QB Mon Jul 19 3:35:46 p.m. ET 20102.05 21. Mercedes Bunz - Randall Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Mon Jul 19 5:31:58 p.m. ET 2010 Not a fan of any of these choices....oh well
cr8f
Footballguy
You have announcers in a draft?
Mr. Fusion
Footballguy
If anything, I think a league that rewards 6pts/TD for passing makes Rodgers a little less valuable - not more. Unless you have no shot of getting Manning/Brees in the 2nd or Romo in the 3rd I would lay off for sure.
Add to that the fact that you're in a PPR league and I'd lean towards Andre Johnson or Gore at 5.
Add to that the fact that you're in a PPR league and I'd lean towards Andre Johnson or Gore at 5.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I agree. 6pt passing TDs should bump Manning closer to #1. I don't have a link for hard stats but my gut says the Colts probably lead the league in red zone pass attempts vs. rush attempts.
wasted space 25
Footballguy
Uh, sure ill take a look at that. What i was asking was should i take him 5th in a 14 team draft. Not sure that was asked in the thread you speak of. Thanks anyways though.
capmeo
Footballguy
Myabe early second but I have seem him go the mid to late first often. No way he drops to the late second unless you are drafting with amateurs.
Pipes
Footballguy
:( Historically half the projected top 10 RB's going into the season don't finish in the top 10. It's your team so run your projections and if you feel Rodgers is what's best and you want him, take him. There is little to no chance he'll be there in the 2nd for you and with the 6 point TD passes others are going to be grabbing QB's too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brees & Manning off the board before your 2nd round pick as well. Plus that will only help you get a better RB in the 2nd.
HenryMuto
Footballguy
I was in the Red vs Blue Footballyguys players championship draft where the draft was announced live on that internet fantasy football show.
kutta
Footballguy
Well, I disagree. Of course, he might be gone. But is he really that much more valuable than Brees and Manning? One of those guys will probably be there, and if they aren't, then a very good WR is going to fall to that spot in the 2nd round anyway.BTW, in the SI Mock draft just released, Rogers went at 2.11. It's not only "amateurs" that don't draft a QB in the first round.Historically half the projected top 10 RB's going into the season don't finish in the top 10. It's your team so run your projections and if you feel Rodgers is what's best and you want him, take him. There is little to no chance he'll be there in the 2nd for you and with the 6 point TD passes others are going to be grabbing QB's too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brees & Manning off the board before your 2nd round pick as well. Plus that will only help you get a better RB in the 2nd.
link
ETA: QB TD's are worth 6 points in this mock.
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Captain Hook
Footballguy
The reason TL and DD didn't like the pick Henry was VALUELook at the other players you could have had....and look at the subsequent QB value in that draft:Eli & Cutler in the 7th roundRivers & Kolb in the 8th round
Captain Hook
Footballguy
You are definitely off track with that pick - you could still have Gore or Andre Johnson at the fifth pick and get a STUD quarterback later in the draft
fightingillini
Footballguy
This.At the 5 spot, take Gore....or consider AJ if it's a PPR league.....and look to take P Manning in Round 2 or Romo in Round 3 (which I think is bigger steal)
Pipes
Footballguy
LOL...this "expert" mock has Brees and Manning going in the 1st so apparently even some "experts" take a QB in the 1st. I still think it's a stretch for him to think/hope that Rodgers will be there in the 2nd.kutta said:Well, I disagree. Of course, he might be gone. But is he really that much more valuable than Brees and Manning? One of those guys will probably be there, and if they aren't, then a very good WR is going to fall to that spot in the 2nd round anyway.BTW, in the SI Mock draft just released, Rogers went at 2.11. It's not only "amateurs" that don't draft a QB in the first round.
link
ETA: QB TD's are worth 6 points in this mock.
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HenryMuto
Footballguy
I did the math. Look at last year's stats AR 402, H-Miller 228 = total 630 ptsIf I had made a non QB pick in 2nd round it would have been V-Davis 291, I would have then taken a 7th round QB like Rivers 336 total 617 pts.Looks like the math checks out to me 630 vs 617. Also this assumes everyone scores the same as last year which won't happen.Davis and Rivers are both likely to produce well below those numbers this year. Cutler/Kolb are they scoring 336+ points this year ? Unlikely.Give me a sure fire QB that will lock down 400 pts plus a TE that will catch alot of passes.So now that I have presented both the plan and the numbers used you still gonna rip me for the strategy ?630 > 617 and that doesn't even account for the safety in having a top super elite QB compared to a questionable QB (Kolb's 1st year, Cutler Mr. INT, Rivers w/o Jackson) V-Davis or Finely or whatever other TE I could have got in round 2 offers downside to me not upside like AR will)Miller will be a big weapon with no Holmes and Leftwich checking down in the 1st 4 weeks.Call me crazy but I did the math and 630 is better than 617 plus all the added security and upside vs the downside of the 7th round QB/2nd round TEBy all means though rip away at my strategy.
HenryMuto
Footballguy
What I love the most of all though is BFD rankings by Mr. Tranqulli who ranked overall Rodgers 1st and Brees 2nd in the fantasy football index.
We are talking OVERALL rankings not QB rankings he has AR 1st and Brees 2nd OVERALL.
Then I draft with him and he has slot 7/18 and he passes on both QB's with both picks.
I am sorry but if your OVERALL rankings have AR 1, Brees 2 then why would I buy your info when you don't even draft either of them at pick 18 ?
Moral of the story - don't rank them #1/#2 overall if your not going to draft them anywhere near that slot that just makes you look bad on your rankings.
We are talking OVERALL rankings not QB rankings he has AR 1st and Brees 2nd OVERALL.
Then I draft with him and he has slot 7/18 and he passes on both QB's with both picks.
I am sorry but if your OVERALL rankings have AR 1, Brees 2 then why would I buy your info when you don't even draft either of them at pick 18 ?
Moral of the story - don't rank them #1/#2 overall if your not going to draft them anywhere near that slot that just makes you look bad on your rankings.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I haven't seen Lou's rankings.....but are you sure that list is not projected points and not draft rankings?Lou ALWAYS waits on his first QB - IMO he waited too long in that draft, but he has been very successful with the strategy as have other very good players.As far as your numbers, you can make stats say anything you want. WHY would you specifically limit the choices for round 2 vs 7 to TE? Also why would you assume that Rodgers will repeat his numbers and everyone else won'tYou drafted a good team Henry, but there are reasons why many better players/analysts/writers would suggest that drafting a quarterback - Any quarterback in the second round is not the best strategy with the scoring for that particular league.If you win the league I will come back here and tell you it worked out to be a great pick........don't count on it though
kutta
Footballguy
The point isn't whether Rogers will be there in the 2nd. The point is that there are a few QBs (Rogers, Brees, Manning) who most consider very close to equal, and one of them will probably be there in the 2nd. And if they aren't, then he is going to get a very good WR or RB2 on his roster. So it just doesn't make sense to take Rogers (or any QB) at that spot when he can get a top RB and an outstanding QB one round later.LOL? Really? How old are you?LOL...this "expert" mock has Brees and Manning going in the 1st so apparently even some "experts" take a QB in the 1st. I still think it's a stretch for him to think/hope that Rodgers will be there in the 2nd.kutta said:Well, I disagree. Of course, he might be gone. But is he really that much more valuable than Brees and Manning? One of those guys will probably be there, and if they aren't, then a very good WR is going to fall to that spot in the 2nd round anyway.BTW, in the SI Mock draft just released, Rogers went at 2.11. It's not only "amateurs" that don't draft a QB in the first round.
link
ETA: QB TD's are worth 6 points in this mock.
HenryMuto
Footballguy
Take a look at a copy of the Fantasy Index page 41, OVERALL TOP 25 RAKINGS20 experts ranked the players Lou was the only person of the 20 to have AR and Brees ranked 1/2.Straight from the book it says....For Tranquilli, the decision to rank quarterbacks in four of his top eight slots comes down to reliability. "They're higher than the top running backs because of their ability to repeat last season's performance", he says, "Running backs bounce up and down. It rook Chris Johnson 2,000 yards and a couple of insanely productive games to reach 300 plus points in standard leagues. Rodgers cracked 400 and Brees 370 points and they have the offenses to pull that off again"The only thing I will say is it looks like these rankings are for NON PPR but still you wouldn't think anyone would rank a QB #1 overall especially this year.Also your not really jumping out on a limb there by saying "Don't count on winning the league" 12 teams = 8.33% chance for each team to win the league. Not going out on a branch there. If I miss or make the playoffs it won't have anything to do with picking Rodgers in the 2nd round. The player I would have taken in round 2 anyway would have been D-Williams and the player in round 3 would have been Rodgers so I just got him in round 2 since I knew in round 3 I would either get Williams or another player of his equal. If Rodgers isn't a top 2 QB scoring and doing it with a 40-50 point margin over the #3 QB then it was probably a bad pick.You need to look for value in a draft and my thought was Rodgers was value at that point.I am sure I will do another 10-15 drafts this year and will most likely not take a QB again in round 2 in any of them as I never take a QB early but since the heard of players in that draft feel the same way Rodgers became a value in the late 2nd/early 3rd...does it matter if I went D-Will then Rodgers in the 3rd ? He wasn't making it back to me in the 4th and I wouldn't have got Romo or Brady in the 5th the way it fell.This is only 1 draft not the end of the world if my strategy fails I just wanted to do something different and in the end I was taking Davis or Rodgers so it didn't really matter as long as Miller puts up another 220+ point season.Best of luck to you this year Hook should be a fun season.PS I took Brady in the 2nd round in an NFFC league last year and won that league so it can work.
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Pipes
Footballguy
I LOL'd you because your post about "it's not only amateurs that don't draft a QB in the 1st round" was a little condecending. Plenty of people have had success taking a QB in the 1st round. There are numerous strategies in selecting a team. I'm not sure if one is any better than the other since it takes both skill an luck to be successful. All I know is you can't win a league with your 1st round pick but you can certainly put yourself behind the 8 ball if your 1st rounder doesn't work out. Rodgers has had 2 tremendous fantasy seasons in a row and is entering him prime so there is no reason to believe he's not going to do that again. Manning and Brees have proven to put up great numbers consistently. I think there is a little bit of a dropoff then you have Romo, Shaub and Rivers are probably the next 3. After that I think there is a decent drop off so I don't see anything wrong with going the safe route and taking a top notch QB in the 1st.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
And for his first tremendous season people were drafting him in Round 7.There weren't any such breakout QBs last year, but I think there will be this year. The trick is to predict the future. It's simple, really.
HenryMuto
Footballguy
And Ray Rice was being drafted in the 5th round and Jamaal Charles was being drafted in the 12th round and Miles Austin was being drafted in the 18th round and Sidney Rice was being picked up off waivers.Everything is relative to a person's personal preference.There is no right or wrong way despite the fact that the "experts" want you to believe that their way is the only way.And for his first tremendous season people were drafting him in Round 7.There weren't any such breakout QBs last year, but I think there will be this year. The trick is to predict the future. It's simple, really.
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kutta
Footballguy
I used the word "amateurs" because the post above yours used it to describe that the only way Rogers would fall is if he was drafting with "amateurs." So I'm glad you found that word condescending, because I did too.And my point was simply to show that in a draft of "experts," Rogers fell to the spot he was hoping, so there are a whole lot of "experts" who do not draft QB's in round 1.Anyway, this is dumb. He may or may not fall. I think the 5 pick is too early. You and others don't. Oh well.
TheLastDispatch
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Oh, I'd say there is definitely a wrong way.But there are many right ways, absolutely.
As I said in another thread, I believe that the only bad pick is a player who would have still been on the board for your choice in the next round. If your gut says that Rodgers will throw 52 TDs and run for 8 more, plus you are certain that someone else will draft him before your 2.09 pick comes around, then take at him 1.04. Do it.
I'm not one of those guys who will tell you that drafting a QB early will doom your season. You just have to pick a lot of lottery ticket guys later and hope one or more of them pays off. In my main league, the Super Bowl champ for each of the past 4 seasons has been someone who drafted a QB in the first round.
wasted space 25
Footballguy
Wow a lot of different views on this. Great stuff fellas
footballsavvy
Footballguy
Point differential within the position is more important than the total points scored. For example, if you were in a league where the top QB scored 500 fantasy points and the #12 QB scored 480 fantasy points..... and the #1 Kicker scored 200 fantasy points and the #12 kicker scored 70 fantasy points, then logic would dictate that Kickers are much more valuable than QB's because you get such a large point gain against your opponent by having a better kicker. As opposed to the #1 QB versus the #12 QB where you would only gain 20 fantasy points on the guy with the worst possible QB for the entire season.This is an exaggeration to display a point. So what is my point? Basically that you can wait on QB on not be at a huge disadvantage, whereas you can not wait very long at RB or receiver without putting yourself into a significant disadvantageous position.Now if you were talking about Dynasty, I woudl be very tempted to pull the trigger on Arron Rodgers at 25 yrs old. Not to mention the predictable nature of stud QBs versus other positions.
Instinctive
Footballguy
So this year only, are we considering Rodgers to be worth more than Brees? I kind of feel like Brees could be better...they have flip flopped the past 2 seasons, so why not again?
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Ask the 8-ballReally no one knows the answer to who will have more points - I think one of them will be the top QB this year.....but OTOH it could be Peyton....or Brady....or...Just another reason why you can wait on a QB (at least in ten and twelve teamers)
