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AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?
By AccuScore
Jul 15, 5:39 pm EDT
AccuScore’s NFL simulator was used to analyze how much Brett Favre would help a variety of teams rumored to be possible destinations. The simulations do not expect Favre to have as much impact on other teams as one might expect simply because he would be joining a team just months before the start of the season. It obviously takes far more than eight weeks to master a new offense.
CHICAGO AND MINNESOTA – NO WAY PACKERS ALLOW THIS
At this point it looks like the Green Bay Packers are welcoming Favre to return as a backup. Here’s why they would never allow him to sign with a division rival like the Chicago Bears or Minnesota Vikings. AccuScore has simulated every game of the 2008 season 10,000 times to calculate the probability of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a wild card. AccuScore’s baseline forecast for the NFC North has the Vikings with the best chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Vikings’ strong running game and improved pass rush gives them a +7 percent edge on the defending NFC North champs, Green Bay. AccuScore does expect Green Bay to make the playoffs as a wild card (sixth in the NFC).
Even though Green Bay is forecasted for second in the division, the gap would widen to a 40-percentage point difference if Favre went to Minnesota.
Baseline Playoffs Win div Favre to Minn Playoffs Win div
Minnesota Vikings 59% 45% Vikings 78% 65%
Green Bay Packers 52% 38% Packers 44% 24%
Chicago Bears 19% 11% Bears 17% 7%
Detroit Lions 11% 6% Lions 9% 4%
Copyright AccuScore.com
The Bears are winning the division just 11 percent of the time in simulations and are not expected to make the playoffs. However, if Favre joined Chicago, the Bears are expected to win the NFC North.
Favre to Chicago Playoffs Win division
Bears 56% 39%
Vikings 49% 33%
Packers 41% 25%
Lions 8% 3%
Copyright AccuScore.com
TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON AND ARIZONA
These numbers only confirm what the Packers’ management already knows. They could never let Favre go to a division rival. Some other possible NFC destinations include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals. Interestingly, Tampa Bay is not seeing a significant bump with Favre starting. Projected Bucs starter Jeff Garcia was a Pro Bowler last year thanks to his highly accurate passing and ability to minimize interceptions. Tampa Bay’s playoff chances only increased by two percentage points with Favre starting.
Washington’s chances of making the playoffs increase by over 10 percentage points (18 percent to 29). However, the NFC East is extremely competitive with defending division champion Dallas Cowboys, defending Super Bowl champion, New York Giants, and the always dangerous Philadelphia Eagles. Even though the Redskins would be better, the chances of Favre leading the team to the playoffs is unlikely. In other words, Favre probably would not want to end his career on a team finishing third in their division.
The Cardinals do get a big boost in performance with Favre. The upgrade from Matt Leinart is enormous and Arizona’s chances of making the playoffs nearly double from 24 percent in the baseline to 47 with Favre. The Cardinals would be better off with Favre and he would have a legitimate chance of competing in the playoffs. However, Green Bay would nix this possibility since a more competitive Cardinals team could cost Green Bay their spot in the playoffs. Or, if both teams make the playoffs they could find themselves facing Favre which is also a situation they would want to avoid.
Baseline Playoffs Win division With Favre Playoffs Win division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45% 34% Buccaneers 47% 36%
Washington Redskins 18% 3% Redskins 29% 7%
Arizona Cardinals 24% 19% Cardinals 47% 35%
Copyright AccuScore.com
RAVENS ARE A GOOD FIT
Green Bay would be wise to focus solely on AFC teams that they do not face in the regular season to avoid Favre unless they meet in the postseason. Two seasons ago, Steve McNair was dumped by the Tennessee Titans and signed with the Ravens. Despite not being nearly as good as he was at his peak, the Ravens won 13 games. Injuries and horrific turnover problems caused the Ravens to drastically dip in 2007 and McNair subsequently retired at season’s end. However, when healthy, the defense is still a Top 5 unit and Willis McGahee was eighth in the league in rushing last season. Favre may have to learn a new system, but so does everyone else in Baltimore with coach John Harbaugh taking over for a fired Brian Billick in the offseason. He is obviously a gigantic upgrade this season over Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco. If the Ravens’ defense and TE Todd Heap are healthy in ‘08, AccuScore expects the Ravens to win seven games with a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, if Favre led the team they would have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs. While this figure is not as high as other teams with Favre, it would be good enough for the sixth-highest percentage in the AFC.
Teams Playoff chances
New England Patriots 98.73%
Indianapolis Colts 90.46%
San Diego Chargers 83.28%
Jacksonville Jaguars 77.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers 73.02%
Baltimore Ravens 33.95%
Copyright AccuScore.com
AccuScore recommends the Ravens pursue Favre in a trade because they have an aging team and should look at him as a last chance of getting back to the Super Bowl. Green Bay should be receptive to dealing him to Baltimore because they would only face him in the Super Bowl. Favre should consider Baltimore because he could be a hero for a city that is devoted to the Ravens during football season and unlike Green Bay, no city has been more quarterback starved than Baltimore since the team moved from Cleveland.
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By AccuScore
Jul 15, 5:39 pm EDT
AccuScore’s NFL simulator was used to analyze how much Brett Favre would help a variety of teams rumored to be possible destinations. The simulations do not expect Favre to have as much impact on other teams as one might expect simply because he would be joining a team just months before the start of the season. It obviously takes far more than eight weeks to master a new offense.
CHICAGO AND MINNESOTA – NO WAY PACKERS ALLOW THIS
At this point it looks like the Green Bay Packers are welcoming Favre to return as a backup. Here’s why they would never allow him to sign with a division rival like the Chicago Bears or Minnesota Vikings. AccuScore has simulated every game of the 2008 season 10,000 times to calculate the probability of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a wild card. AccuScore’s baseline forecast for the NFC North has the Vikings with the best chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Vikings’ strong running game and improved pass rush gives them a +7 percent edge on the defending NFC North champs, Green Bay. AccuScore does expect Green Bay to make the playoffs as a wild card (sixth in the NFC).
Even though Green Bay is forecasted for second in the division, the gap would widen to a 40-percentage point difference if Favre went to Minnesota.
Baseline Playoffs Win div Favre to Minn Playoffs Win div
Minnesota Vikings 59% 45% Vikings 78% 65%
Green Bay Packers 52% 38% Packers 44% 24%
Chicago Bears 19% 11% Bears 17% 7%
Detroit Lions 11% 6% Lions 9% 4%
Copyright AccuScore.com
The Bears are winning the division just 11 percent of the time in simulations and are not expected to make the playoffs. However, if Favre joined Chicago, the Bears are expected to win the NFC North.
Favre to Chicago Playoffs Win division
Bears 56% 39%
Vikings 49% 33%
Packers 41% 25%
Lions 8% 3%
Copyright AccuScore.com
TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON AND ARIZONA
These numbers only confirm what the Packers’ management already knows. They could never let Favre go to a division rival. Some other possible NFC destinations include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals. Interestingly, Tampa Bay is not seeing a significant bump with Favre starting. Projected Bucs starter Jeff Garcia was a Pro Bowler last year thanks to his highly accurate passing and ability to minimize interceptions. Tampa Bay’s playoff chances only increased by two percentage points with Favre starting.
Washington’s chances of making the playoffs increase by over 10 percentage points (18 percent to 29). However, the NFC East is extremely competitive with defending division champion Dallas Cowboys, defending Super Bowl champion, New York Giants, and the always dangerous Philadelphia Eagles. Even though the Redskins would be better, the chances of Favre leading the team to the playoffs is unlikely. In other words, Favre probably would not want to end his career on a team finishing third in their division.
The Cardinals do get a big boost in performance with Favre. The upgrade from Matt Leinart is enormous and Arizona’s chances of making the playoffs nearly double from 24 percent in the baseline to 47 with Favre. The Cardinals would be better off with Favre and he would have a legitimate chance of competing in the playoffs. However, Green Bay would nix this possibility since a more competitive Cardinals team could cost Green Bay their spot in the playoffs. Or, if both teams make the playoffs they could find themselves facing Favre which is also a situation they would want to avoid.
Baseline Playoffs Win division With Favre Playoffs Win division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45% 34% Buccaneers 47% 36%
Washington Redskins 18% 3% Redskins 29% 7%
Arizona Cardinals 24% 19% Cardinals 47% 35%
Copyright AccuScore.com
RAVENS ARE A GOOD FIT
Green Bay would be wise to focus solely on AFC teams that they do not face in the regular season to avoid Favre unless they meet in the postseason. Two seasons ago, Steve McNair was dumped by the Tennessee Titans and signed with the Ravens. Despite not being nearly as good as he was at his peak, the Ravens won 13 games. Injuries and horrific turnover problems caused the Ravens to drastically dip in 2007 and McNair subsequently retired at season’s end. However, when healthy, the defense is still a Top 5 unit and Willis McGahee was eighth in the league in rushing last season. Favre may have to learn a new system, but so does everyone else in Baltimore with coach John Harbaugh taking over for a fired Brian Billick in the offseason. He is obviously a gigantic upgrade this season over Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco. If the Ravens’ defense and TE Todd Heap are healthy in ‘08, AccuScore expects the Ravens to win seven games with a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, if Favre led the team they would have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs. While this figure is not as high as other teams with Favre, it would be good enough for the sixth-highest percentage in the AFC.
Teams Playoff chances
New England Patriots 98.73%
Indianapolis Colts 90.46%
San Diego Chargers 83.28%
Jacksonville Jaguars 77.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers 73.02%
Baltimore Ravens 33.95%
Copyright AccuScore.com
AccuScore recommends the Ravens pursue Favre in a trade because they have an aging team and should look at him as a last chance of getting back to the Super Bowl. Green Bay should be receptive to dealing him to Baltimore because they would only face him in the Super Bowl. Favre should consider Baltimore because he could be a hero for a city that is devoted to the Ravens during football season and unlike Green Bay, no city has been more quarterback starved than Baltimore since the team moved from Cleveland.
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