ACL injuries (1 Viewer)

[kutta]

I am having a lot of trouble this off season wrapping my mind around the rankings of Jamaal Charles and ADP. They are pretty much consensus late 1st or early 2nd round draft picks. Maybe Charles slips into the late 2nd early 3rd, but not often. I know these guys are both physical freaks and they both rehabbed very well, but history shows us that it is extremely difficult for an NFL RB to come back from this kind of injury and be productive the following year. Heck, the Skins just waived Hightower in large part because he didn't recover well enough, yet we expect Charles and ADP to come back and perform like top backs again?

This website has a list of RB's who suffered ACL injuries and their stats before and after the injuries. It is pretty telling to walk down the list and see how many of them did not recover well their first year back. I have summarized the data below listing rushing yards and TD's. The green indicates that the stats the following year were on par with before the injury.

Why are we so sure Charles and ADP are going to come back so well from their surgeries when the vast majority of RB's do not?

Curt Warner

1449 14

1094 9

Terry Allen

478 15

148 8

Ki-Jana Carter

1539 26 (college)

264 9

Jamaal Anderson

1864 16

1024 6

Terrell Davis

2008 23

282 4

Robert Edwards

1115 12

107 2

Garrison Hearst

1570 9

1206 5

Olandis Gary

1159 7

228 1

Edgerrin James

1709 18

989 3

Jamaal Lewis

1364 6

1327 7

Dominic Rhodes

1104 9

157 1

Deuce McAllister (part 1)

1074 10

1057 10

LaMont Jordan

1025 11

549 3

Ronnie Brown

1008 5

946 10

Deuce McAllister (part 2)

1057 10

418 6

Cadillac Williams

798 1

233 4

Kevin Smith

976 8

123 0

 

[FootballGuy22]

I agree with this and don't know why it's so overlooked, I have avoided Charles and ADP in drafts unless they fell (they didn't)

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I most likely wouldn't touch either player at those spots in the draft, but I also think medical science has improved dramatically since many of those players being used as comparisons were injured. Seems like players are recovering better and faster than ever lately.

 

[Run It Up]

They are still serious, just much less serious.

 

[jdubs952]

I most likely wouldn't touch either player at those spots in the draft, but I also think medical science has improved dramatically since many of those players being used as comparisons were injured. Seems like players are recovering better and faster than ever lately.

But it isn't about medical science. It's psychological. They don't feel comfortable planting that leg, that makes them less effective.

 

[baconisgood]

Comparing Hightower, a mediocre RB, to ADP and Charles, elite RBs is folly. If Hightower comes back at 80% of himself he is a replacement leve RB, a top end RB at 80% comes back as an average to above average back.

Your list of injuries has also been shredded elsewhere.

Lastly Welker's stupendously fast return as a quality (though not up to his old standards) receiver after a late ACL tear is a point in favor of those who think that treatment, rehab and surgery are progressing and that 10 year old comps are no longer comps at all.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

IMO if Demaryius Thomas can return from a torn achilles in nine months and be a stud and Wes Welker can do the same from mulitple torn ligaments despite his fairly advanced age you pretty much have to accept that we're in a new era medically.

You also have really young and/or really talented guys getting hurt last year. These aren't middling talents at the end of their careers.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

 

[FF Ninja]

I agree with the OP. Definitely avoiding AP and JC. Although strangely the ACL injury has certainly scared off people from Mendenhall. I don't have any of those 3 players on any teams.

Medical advancements are nice, but in the end, the human body can only heal so fast. Why we take chances on guys with torn ACLs but freak out about guys with hamstring issues last year (AJ, Austin, Hillis), I have no idea. It boils down to group think which in turn leads to value plays for smart drafters. So let's keep up the ACL recover hype and the hamstring hate!

 

[kutta]

Comparing Hightower, a mediocre RB, to ADP and Charles, elite RBs is folly. If Hightower comes back at 80% of himself he is a replacement leve RB, a top end RB at 80% comes back as an average to above average back.

Your list of injuries has also been shredded elsewhere.

Lastly Welker's stupendously fast return as a quality (though not up to his old standards) receiver after a late ACL tear is a point in favor of those who think that treatment, rehab and surgery are progressing and that 10 year old comps are no longer comps at all.

lol at "shredded."Last I checked, Welker is a WR, not a RB. Big difference.

Since 2006, there had been exactly one RB (Ronnie Brown) who returned to put up similar stats one year after his injury. One back in six years. Yet we are ready to say Charles and ADP will not miss a beat.

The data is the data. You can't ignore it because you don't like what it says. The vast majority of RB's take 2 years to get back into form. Even with new treatments, etc., it is very rare to see a return to glory in one year for RB's.

 

[kutta]

IMO if Demaryius Thomas can return from a torn achilles in nine months and be a stud and Wes Welker can do the same from mulitple torn ligaments despite his fairly advanced age you pretty much have to accept that we're in a new era medically.You also have really young and/or really talented guys getting hurt last year. These aren't middling talents at the end of their careers.

Those guys are WR's. It is totally different for a RB.

 

[kutta]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

 

[Shawn]

I am having a lot of trouble this off season wrapping my mind around the rankings of Jamaal Charles and ADP. They are pretty much consensus late 1st or early 2nd round draft picks. Maybe Charles slips into the late 2nd early 3rd, but not often. I know these guys are both physical freaks and they both rehabbed very well, but history shows us that it is extremely difficult for an NFL RB to come back from this kind of injury and be productive the following year. Heck, the Skins just waived Hightower in large part because he didn't recover well enough, yet we expect Charles and ADP to come back and perform like top backs again?

This website has a list of RB's who suffered ACL injuries and their stats before and after the injuries. It is pretty telling to walk down the list and see how many of them did not recover well their first year back. I have summarized the data below listing rushing yards and TD's. The green indicates that the stats the following year were on par with before the injury.

Why are we so sure Charles and ADP are going to come back so well from their surgeries when the vast majority of RB's do not?

This is why anytime I draft Charles i grab Hillis and any time you draft ADP you should grab Toby G.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Can you point to a truly good and young RB who didn't?The RBs that get typically get cited are all either old, not very good or had their injury many years ago.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Yet we are ready to say Charles and ADP will not miss a beat.

I think that's overstating what people are saying. If people thought that Peterson wouldn't miss a beat, he'd be a top three pick.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Yet we are ready to say Charles and ADP will not miss a beat.

I think that's overstating what people are saying. If people thought that Peterson wouldn't miss a beat, he'd be a top three pick.

he was going in the 4th and 5th rounds quite often during drafts this summer. he was going 1st overall or close to it pre-injury last year.that's a pretty big beat he's missing.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

 

[DoubleG]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

I think one things to keep in mind with injuries specifically is that medical science continues to advance. Rehab/recovery and even "experimental" procedures (i.e. blood-spinning, stem cell injections, etc.) have changed dramatically over the past 10-20 years. Citing players who tore an ACL back in the 90s is outdated. I don't think using their recovery (or lack of it) to try to predict current and future recoveries is necessarily going to be accurate.The injury may be the same, but the recovery time, rehab, strengthening and conditioning are all vastly improved - even from as little as 10 years ago.

 

[cvnpoka]

Comparing Hightower, a mediocre RB, to ADP and Charles, elite RBs is folly. If Hightower comes back at 80% of himself he is a replacement leve RB, a top end RB at 80% comes back as an average to above average back.

Your list of injuries has also been shredded elsewhere.

Lastly Welker's stupendously fast return as a quality (though not up to his old standards) receiver after a late ACL tear is a point in favor of those who think that treatment, rehab and surgery are progressing and that 10 year old comps are no longer comps at all.

lol at "shredded."Last I checked, Welker is a WR, not a RB. Big difference.

Since 2006, there had been exactly one RB (Ronnie Brown) who returned to put up similar stats one year after his injury. One back in six years. Yet we are ready to say Charles and ADP will not miss a beat.

The data is the data. You can't ignore it because you don't like what it says. The vast majority of RB's take 2 years to get back into form. Even with new treatments, etc., it is very rare to see a return to glory in one year for RB's.

no one is saying that, nor do their adp's indicate that. thing is, there just arent many viable rbs this yr, so those guys are preferable.

 

[kutta]

Yet we are ready to say Charles and ADP will not miss a beat.

I think that's overstating what people are saying. If people thought that Peterson wouldn't miss a beat, he'd be a top three pick.

he was going in the 4th and 5th rounds quite often during drafts this summer. he was going 1st overall or close to it pre-injury last year.that's a pretty big beat he's missing.

Why would you talk about drafts during the summer? Right now his ADP is somewhere in the mid-second round, and I've seen him get drafted in the late first round. FBG staff rankings have him as the #4 RB (Hicks), the #6 RB (Garda), and the #7 RB (Tefertiller). I'd say those rankings pretty much qualify as not missing a beat.MT, you have Charles ranked as the 7th best RB in the league this year - ahead of Murray and Chris Johnson. Several FBG staff have him ranked either 6 or 7. Yes, I think that qualifies as not missing a beat.

 

[kutta]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Yes, they are. People are drafting both these guys as their RB 1.

 

[kutta]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Can you point to a truly good and young RB who didn't?The RBs that get typically get cited are all either old, not very good or had their injury many years ago.

I'll point to two of them after this year.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Why would you talk about drafts during the summer? Right now his ADP is somewhere in the mid-second round, and I've seen him get drafted in the late first round. FBG staff rankings have him as the #4 RB (Hicks), the #6 RB (Garda), and the #7 RB (Tefertiller). I'd say those rankings pretty much qualify as not missing a beat.MT, you have Charles ranked as the 7th best RB in the league this year - ahead of Murray and Chris Johnson. Several FBG staff have him ranked either 6 or 7. Yes, I think that qualifies as not missing a beat.

Like I said, I wouldn't touch either player at that spot in the draft.I guess people are responding to positive news that has come out on each player recently or they feel the upside justifies the risk.Peterson is a guy I would hate to bet against though.

 

[cstu]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

I did a lot of reading on the subject after trading for Ryan Williams and Leshoure and what I learned is that more than the improvement in surgery, which has indeed advanced, doctors know much more about how to rehab injuries now. From from what I gathered it seems like doctors know a great deal about the rehab process than they did before and it's allowing athletes to recover faster and return to their previous level of play.

 

[CalBear]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Yes, they are. People are drafting both these guys as their RB 1.

Peterson without the ACL injury would be the #1 overall pick this year. He's being drafted around 2.06. Charles without the ACL injury would be a top-5 pick. He's being drafted around 2.10. So, no, they're not being drafted like they'll return to form. They're being drafted like they'll outperform Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.The list of ACL injuries is completely useless. The last RB who was anywhere near the quality of these two was Deuce the first time, and he came back just fine. Before that it was Jamal Lewis, same thing. So you have to go back to 2001 (Edgerrin James) to find a good RB who got injured and didn't come back well.

 

[cstu]

Why would you talk about drafts during the summer? Right now his ADP is somewhere in the mid-second round, and I've seen him get drafted in the late first round. FBG staff rankings have him as the #4 RB (Hicks), the #6 RB (Garda), and the #7 RB (Tefertiller). I'd say those rankings pretty much qualify as not missing a beat.

MT, you have Charles ranked as the 7th best RB in the league this year - ahead of Murray and Chris Johnson. Several FBG staff have him ranked either 6 or 7. Yes, I think that qualifies as not missing a beat.

Like I said, I wouldn't touch either player at that spot in the draft.I guess people are responding to positive news that has come out on each player recently or they feel the upside justifies the risk.

Peterson is a guy I would hate to bet against though.

His age is a concern for me since historically RB's at his age (27) have had more trouble recovering from knee injuries, but even if he's only close to 100% of the Peterson we're used to he's still a top RB in the league.

 

[ImTheScientist]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Yes, they are. People are drafting both these guys as their RB 1.

Peterson without the ACL injury would be the #1 overall pick this year. He's being drafted around 2.06. Charles without the ACL injury would be a top-5 pick. He's being drafted around 2.10. So, no, they're not being drafted like they'll return to form. They're being drafted like they'll outperform Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.The list of ACL injuries is completely useless. The last RB who was anywhere near the quality of these two was Deuce the first time, and he came back just fine. Before that it was Jamal Lewis, same thing. So you have to go back to 2001 (Edgerrin James) to find a good RB who got injured and didn't come back well.

 

[kutta]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Yes, they are. People are drafting both these guys as their RB 1.

Peterson without the ACL injury would be the #1 overall pick this year. He's being drafted around 2.06. Charles without the ACL injury would be a top-5 pick. He's being drafted around 2.10. So, no, they're not being drafted like they'll return to form. They're being drafted like they'll outperform Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.The list of ACL injuries is completely useless. The last RB who was anywhere near the quality of these two was Deuce the first time, and he came back just fine. Before that it was Jamal Lewis, same thing. So you have to go back to 2001 (Edgerrin James) to find a good RB who got injured and didn't come back well.

They are being drafted maybe one round later than they would be if they didn't have the surgeries, so of course, there is some drop off. But my point is that neither of these guys are making it out of the 2nd round, and they are ending up as RB 1's on most teams that draft them. So there is not much drop off at all.Personally, I wouldn't draft either one until the fifth round this year. Dropping from being ranked as the RB 4 to the RB 7 is not really much of a drop off at all.I actually think Hillis will have more touches, yards, and TD's than Charles this year. That's the kind of drop off I'm talking about.

 

[Shutout]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Can you show me a RB in the last six years who has returned to form one year after an ACL?

Are any of these RBs being drafted like they will return to form? They sure have not in the leagues I play in. Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

Yes, they are. People are drafting both these guys as their RB 1.

Peterson without the ACL injury would be the #1 overall pick this year. He's being drafted around 2.06. Charles without the ACL injury would be a top-5 pick. He's being drafted around 2.10. So, no, they're not being drafted like they'll return to form. They're being drafted like they'll outperform Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.The list of ACL injuries is completely useless. The last RB who was anywhere near the quality of these two was Deuce the first time, and he came back just fine. Before that it was Jamal Lewis, same thing. So you have to go back to 2001 (Edgerrin James) to find a good RB who got injured and didn't come back well.

One other piece of perspective to factor in however, is timing. Jamal Lewis was injured on the first day of training camp and missed an entire year + camp. Deuce got injured in something like 5th game or fairly early I think. Charles is comparable but Adrian is just a few months removed. I think it has a lot to do with swinging on upside and name recognition. I tend to agree with the OP. these guys may play early but I'd be shocked if they play to the same fantasy level (number of carries, yards, etc) and I would expect any little thing that pops up, like some swelling or a funny hit to the knee will cost them the rest of a game or a game here or there. They don't deserve to be a team's RB1. Not based on talent but based on risk.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

the good thing with Peterson is the Gerhart handcuff is usually very inexpensive.

If you believe in the Chiefs running game, the Hills handcuff is probably a wise investment as well and you may be able to start one in a flex spot during most weeks if both are healthy. If Charles gets hurt, Hillis is likely a top-10 RB too.

 

[kutta]

the good thing with Peterson is the Gerhart handcuff is usually very inexpensive.If you believe in the Chiefs running game, the Hills handcuff is probably a wise investment as well and you may be able to start one in a flex spot during most weeks if both are healthy. If Charles gets hurt, Hillis is likely a top-10 RB too.

True. I could see that boosting their value more than I think they're worth. But I think they are still going too early.

 

[wsig]

I most likely wouldn't touch either player at those spots in the draft, but I also think medical science has improved dramatically since many of those players being used as comparisons were injured. Seems like players are recovering better and faster than ever lately.

This. The comebacks of guys like Welker and TO are proof of how far we've come. It was a very different injury in the 90's. Robert Edwards' career was certainly over. Where as it wouldn't surprise me one bit if AP made the Pro Bowl roster this year, on merit.Also, Williams tore his patella tendon in 07, not his ACL. It's a much more severe injury, and few that NFL players have ever fully come back from.

 

[CalBear]

They are being drafted maybe one round later than they would be if they didn't have the surgeries, so of course, there is some drop off. But my point is that neither of these guys are making it out of the 2nd round, and they are ending up as RB 1's on most teams that draft them. So there is not much drop off at all.

If you think 2.06 isn't much of a drop off from 1.01, I'd be glad to trade picks with you.

 

[Sweet Love]

The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

I did a lot of reading on the subject after trading for Ryan Williams and Leshoure and what I learned is that more than the improvement in surgery, which has indeed advanced, doctors know much more about how to rehab injuries now. From from what I gathered it seems like doctors know a great deal about the rehab process than they did before and it's allowing athletes to recover faster and return to their previous level of play.

Bingo...although there are advancements in the surgery. I blew mine out prior to my freshman year in college, it got misdiagnosed, and I went to college ready to play hockey with a blown ACL...during off-ice training, the school diagnosed it as a blown ACL and I had surgery from the NYG doctor. I had a nine month recovery (this is back in'92...now it is about 6 months when you can start running and do minor cutting), but all the surgery in the world meant diddly when I had mediocre rehab (and I sluffed it off too)...I really never got back to normal until my junior year and then it was too late (I was buried on the 4th line)...even now, at 38 it is not right, and I tweaked it again in 2010 and went to the Carolina Hurricanes doctor and at first glance he misdiagnosed it as a blown ACL until he did the MRI and basically said it is like a rubber band and I will keep tweaking it over the years and probably not blow it. It is all about the rehab...that is where the pro athletes differ from average joes. anyone can get a "pro doctor" to do their surgery (they bang out 4 a day, so it is not like they are THAT busy with their pro teams), but unless you have great rehab, it means little.

 

[JFurby]

Seems like players are recovering better and faster than ever lately.

...treatment, rehab and surgery are progressing and that 10 year old comps are no longer comps at all.

...you pretty much have to accept that we're in a new era medically.

Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

The injury may be the same, but the recovery time, rehab, strengthening and conditioning are all vastly improved - even from as little as 10 years ago.

I've learned to be very cautious in life anytime the group mentality becomes that "this time is different".

 

[baconisgood]

Seems like players are recovering better and faster than ever lately.

...treatment, rehab and surgery are progressing and that 10 year old comps are no longer comps at all.

...you pretty much have to accept that we're in a new era medically.

Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

The injury may be the same, but the recovery time, rehab, strengthening and conditioning are all vastly improved - even from as little as 10 years ago.

I've learned to be very cautious in life anytime the group mentality becomes that "this time is different".

You have it backwards. Medical progress is the norm, not the exception. If you are diagnosed with cancer you doctor isn't giving you a prognosis based on survival rates from the 1960s.

 

[baconisgood]

Last I checked, Welker is a WR, not a RB. Big difference.

Yeah, I mean RBs plant their foot and then cut, while WRs cut after planting their foot. Its totally different.

 

[kutta]

They are being drafted maybe one round later than they would be if they didn't have the surgeries, so of course, there is some drop off. But my point is that neither of these guys are making it out of the 2nd round, and they are ending up as RB 1's on most teams that draft them. So there is not much drop off at all.

If you think 2.06 isn't much of a drop off from 1.01, I'd be glad to trade picks with you.

What did you score on the reading portion of the SAT?

 

[baconisgood]

They are being drafted maybe one round later than they would be if they didn't have the surgeries, so of course, there is some drop off. But my point is that neither of these guys are making it out of the 2nd round, and they are ending up as RB 1's on most teams that draft them. So there is not much drop off at all.

If you think 2.06 isn't much of a drop off from 1.01, I'd be glad to trade picks with you.

What did you score on the reading portion of the SAT?

At least 50 points higher than you on the written portion.

 

[rickyg]

I won't say it's impossible but I will say that I would be shocked...totally and utterly shocked..of either Charles or Peterson didn't disappoint people who drafted them I the first 2 rounds of fantasy drafts this year, passing on guys like graham, Julio jones, fitz, fjax, murray, cam newton, etc.

I don't care how many medical advances we have seen in acl surgery and rehab. Especially for Peterson who suffered his acl tear in the latter part of the 2011 season. It's just ridiculous to bank your 2nd round pick on a player that recently removed from a devastating knee injury when there are so many other healthy and explosive difference makers that you can grab in that round.

Charles at least is about a full year removed but even still I'll let someone else take the risk on a split time rb comjng off an acl tear who relies on his violent cutting abilities and speed to create fantasy value.

Needless to say Charles and Peterson are on none of m teams this year. Even if they blow up and end up the #1 and 2 fantasy backs for 2012 that is something I won't regret. They would be the exception to the rule, not the rule.

 

[rickyg]

Of course there is always an adp for those guys that makes sense ad makes them worth the risk. For me that's after round 7, once all of the legit and healthy starting rbs have been taken. Of course try would never fall that far hence why they are not on my teams.

I'd rather a healthy Donald brown than ap or charles coming off that injury. Again, I could very well be wrong but I won't eat crow if I am because 10 times out of 10 I would make the same choice.

Its like hitting in 16 in blackjack when the dealer is showing a 7 or higher Just because you hit on 16 and bust doesn't mean next time you shouldn't hit on 16. Odds say hit every time.

That is how I view my rule on acl injuries. I don't touch players comin off acl injuries until 2 seasons removed from them (unless I can get them at a ridiculous bargain where it won't hurt my team if they suck). And if a player once in a while proves me wrong them I miss out and that's that.

 

[tombonneau]

How many people doubting Charles watched him in the preseason?

 

[rickyg]

How many people doubting Charles watched him in the preseason?

I did. I'll admit he looked just fine. I still question how he will hold up with the rigors of a full workload (15-20 touches per week) in a 16 game season. Still won't touch him. Not in the 2nd round.Also don't think for one second that the chiefs aren't hyper aware of his knee. They are going to do everything jn their power to keep him fresh and not overwork him. That's why I think Hillis is being (or was being) overlooked too much. I think when all is said and done, it will be Hillis who gets more touches and tds/fantasy points this year in that backfield.

 

[rickyg]

Here are the top 27 players according to Dodds. I don't think there is a single player on this list that I would draft ap or Charles before for this season given their injuries. I'd even take Ryan Mathews sooner coming off that collar bone and I hate Mathews:

1 Arian Foster HOU

2 Ray Rice BAL

3 LeSean McCoy PHI

4 Aaron Rodgers GB

5 Calvin Johnson DET

6 Darren McFadden OAK

7 Drew Brees NO

8 Chris Johnson TEN

9 Jamaal Charles KC

10 DeMarco Murray DAL

11 Matt Forte CHI

12 Jimmy Graham NO

13 Adrian Peterson MIN

14 Tom Brady NE

15 Julio Jones ATL

16 Steven Jackson STL

17 Cam Newton CAR

18 Matthew Stafford DET

19 Doug Martin TB

20 Fred Jackson BUF

21 Andre Johnson HOU

22 Larry Fitzgerald ARI

23 Marshawn Lynch SEA

24 A.J. Green CIN

25 Ryan Mathews SD

26 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX

27 Rob Gronkowski

 

[ShaqAttaq]

the surgical procedures used to perform my first ACL procedure (1984 or so) was less refined than than my next two ACL reconstructions (1987, 1991). all of those methods were downright barbaric compared to the revision reconstructions i had in both knees a few years ago.

recovery from the recent surgeries was very, very different from the previous ones. i don't think comparing the older half of those players is relevant at all.

 

[Donsmith753]

I also don't see how people are so keen to compare the recoveries of Charles and ADP. Charles injury occurred in Week 2 (I think?) whereas ADP's was the last week of the regular season.

That gives Charles almost a 4 month head start on ADP. I'd be far more nervous about drafting ADP than Charles (admittedly I traded for Charles during the season last year) although I agree with Cal and Scientist etc. Even if ADP comes back at 85% that's most likely enough to justify his draft position.

 

[DoubleG]

Seems like players are recovering better and faster than ever lately.

...treatment, rehab and surgery are progressing and that 10 year old comps are no longer comps at all.

...you pretty much have to accept that we're in a new era medically.

Again, The surgery and recovery is different than it use to be. Your list isn't all that relevant anymore.

The injury may be the same, but the recovery time, rehab, strengthening and conditioning are all vastly improved - even from as little as 10 years ago.

I've learned to be very cautious in life anytime the group mentality becomes that "this time is different".

You have it backwards. Medical progress is the norm, not the exception. If you are diagnosed with cancer you doctor isn't giving you a prognosis based on survival rates from the 1960s.

Not too many women who just had a normal childbirth stay in the hospital for a week + anymore. There are countless medical procedures that used to require lengthy hospital stays and rehab that are now outpatient procedures that put people back on their feet in a matter of days, as opposed to weeks. Times, they are a changin'.

 

[Phenix]

Here are the top 27 players according to Dodds. I don't think there is a single player on this list that I would draft ap or Charles before for this season given their injuries. I'd even take Ryan Mathews sooner coming off that collar bone and I hate Mathews:1 Arian Foster HOU 2 Ray Rice BAL 3 LeSean McCoy PHI 4 Aaron Rodgers GB 5 Calvin Johnson DET 6 Darren McFadden OAK 7 Drew Brees NO 8 Chris Johnson TEN 9 Jamaal Charles KC 10 DeMarco Murray DAL 11 Matt Forte CHI 12 Jimmy Graham NO 13 Adrian Peterson MIN 14 Tom Brady NE 15 Julio Jones ATL 16 Steven Jackson STL 17 Cam Newton CAR 18 Matthew Stafford DET 19 Doug Martin TB 20 Fred Jackson BUF 21 Andre Johnson HOU 22 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 23 Marshawn Lynch SEA 24 A.J. Green CIN 25 Ryan Mathews SD 26 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 27 Rob Gronkowski

That is your own fault. You are obviously out of touch with how the medical field and thier advances year after every year. When they have millions of dollars going into players, teams and doctors will take the upmost caution possible.ADP, Charles and Mendy are franchise type players, they would not even be practicing if they couldnt handle it or without doctors approval. People who know more about injuries than you do are saying he is ready to go, why are you hesitant? History? History changes my man, ask Paterno who just had his history taken from him. Regardless of what he did and the situation, history changed, history can change in a heart beat for injured knees too with technology.Also ask yourself how you felt the year Brees was getting drafted in late rounds after his shoulder surgery. You glad you drafted most of those guys ahead of him that year?Also, I saw video of ADP rehabing his knee, and looked better than most of these guys do after a reconstructed knee. But its why some of us are sharks, and the others are well....

 

[rickyg]

Here are the top 27 players according to Dodds. I don't think there is a single player on this list that I would draft ap or Charles before for this season given their injuries. I'd even take Ryan Mathews sooner coming off that collar bone and I hate Mathews:1 Arian Foster HOU 2 Ray Rice BAL 3 LeSean McCoy PHI 4 Aaron Rodgers GB 5 Calvin Johnson DET 6 Darren McFadden OAK 7 Drew Brees NO 8 Chris Johnson TEN 9 Jamaal Charles KC 10 DeMarco Murray DAL 11 Matt Forte CHI 12 Jimmy Graham NO 13 Adrian Peterson MIN 14 Tom Brady NE 15 Julio Jones ATL 16 Steven Jackson STL 17 Cam Newton CAR 18 Matthew Stafford DET 19 Doug Martin TB 20 Fred Jackson BUF 21 Andre Johnson HOU 22 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 23 Marshawn Lynch SEA 24 A.J. Green CIN 25 Ryan Mathews SD 26 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 27 Rob Gronkowski

That is your own fault. You are obviously out of touch with how the medical field and thier advances year after every year. When they have millions of dollars going into players, teams and doctors will take the upmost caution possible.ADP, Charles and Mendy are franchise type players, they would not even be practicing if they couldnt handle it or without doctors approval. People who know more about injuries than you do are saying he is ready to go, why are you hesitant? History? History changes my man, ask Paterno who just had his history taken from him. Regardless of what he did and the situation, history changed, history can change in a heart beat for injured knees too with technology.Also ask yourself how you felt the year Brees was getting drafted in late rounds after his shoulder surgery. You glad you drafted most of those guys ahead of him that year?Also, I saw video of ADP rehabing his knee, and looked better than most of these guys do after a reconstructed knee. But its why some of us are sharks, and the others are well....

Just the idea that you think that your willingness to draft ap at his "discounted price" and I am not makes you in any way shape or form a "better" or more knowledgeable fantasy football player than me is well...laughable. What you have right now is the same as what I have...an opinion. You have absolutely no close what ap or Charles will or won't do this year. They could both be money or they could both kill fantasy teams based on where they were drafted. They could reinsure their knees at any given time during the season. And for tell me that medical advances have mase it so that there is no longer any heightened risk of reinjury fr torn acl's bc then you will just sound well...idiotic. Like I said, I acknowledge full well that I could be wrong. If I am it's fine. It won't make the difference in a fantasy championship if ap does well ad gets 1000 yds and 10 Tds after I passed on him for Julio jones or jommy graham who has 1300 yards and 10 Tds which is not only feasible but more probable than ap getting 1000 yds and 10 Tds. Who do u think the vikes are going to give the ball to at the goal line, a battering ram like gerhart or ap so that he can get crushed and stress that knee constantly? Jamaal Charles will have to score his Tds like usual from distance. He was never a big td scorer. With him it's about rushing and receiving yards. I'd rather take fjax around there or another stud wr who will likely outscore him this year and is healthy. I love it when people talk as if they have a crystal ball and know for sure that the way they view things are 100% correct. You, me, NOONE has any idea how these guys or any player will perform once the season begins. We all have our own projections for players based on our thoughts. Yours are no better than mine.

 

[rickyg]

Ps I am very in touch with medical advancements. I haw torn my knee up to shreds before and have a metal plate and screws in my knee from a devastating muay Thai injury. I know lots about knee injuries surgery, and rehab