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I'm seeing Lynch go a round earlier than Peterson in almost every draft I've been in. Last night when Peterson went mid 3rd Lynch was already gone. I've seen him go as early as late 2nd and mid 3rd (3.08ish) on average. I think he fell to the early 4th once out of 8 or 9 drafts.
ADP is only part of my formula for drafting. I think Peterson will be a top 15 back with top 5 potential this year. In that case he is falling to me as opposed to me taking him in the 2nd round. I don't always like to follow the herd. To each his own. Peterson is value in the 4th rd.This pretty much sums it all up. People who have a man crush on Peterson actually have convinced themselves that a guy with an ADP of 5.02 is "falling" to them in rounds 3 and 4.
Those are separate issues. Just because your opinion says he is a top 15 back does not change the fact that drafters as a whole take him in round 5. He is not "falling" to you any round before 5 no matter how many points you think he will score.ADP is only part of my formula for drafting. I think Peterson will be a top 15 back with top 5 potential this year. In that case he is falling to me as opposed to me taking him in the 2nd round. I don't always like to follow the herd. To each his own. Peterson is value in the 4th rd.This pretty much sums it all up. People who have a man crush on Peterson actually have convinced themselves that a guy with an ADP of 5.02 is "falling" to them in rounds 3 and 4.
ctdub said:ADP is only part of my formula for drafting. I think Peterson will be a top 15 back with top 5 potential this year. In that case he is falling to me as opposed to me taking him in the 2nd round. I don't always like to follow the herd. To each his own. Peterson is value in the 4th rd.jurb26 said:This pretty much sums it all up. People who have a man crush on Peterson actually have convinced themselves that a guy with an ADP of 5.02 is "falling" to them in rounds 3 and 4.ctdub said:
those other 23 RBs have projections close to the history of production for the top 23 RBs.i have peterson in for 150 yards receiving, 225 carries for 1k yards, and 6 TDs. (about 1200 combined yards)
The irony is that it actually looks like the herd view around here is to overvalue Peterson.ctdub said:ADP is only part of my formula for drafting. I think Peterson will be a top 15 back with top 5 potential this year. In that case he is falling to me as opposed to me taking him in the 2nd round. I don't always like to follow the herd. To each his own. Peterson is value in the 4th rd.jurb26 said:This pretty much sums it all up. People who have a man crush on Peterson actually have convinced themselves that a guy with an ADP of 5.02 is "falling" to them in rounds 3 and 4.ctdub said:
The irony is that it actually looks like the herd view around here is to overvalue Peterson.ctdub said:ADP is only part of my formula for drafting. I think Peterson will be a top 15 back with top 5 potential this year. In that case he is falling to me as opposed to me taking him in the 2nd round. I don't always like to follow the herd. To each his own. Peterson is value in the 4th rd.jurb26 said:This pretty much sums it all up. People who have a man crush on Peterson actually have convinced themselves that a guy with an ADP of 5.02 is "falling" to them in rounds 3 and 4.ctdub said:
Hi, Redbirds <---------
Still confused about Peterson being a 2nd rounder all along?
Is this ancient Oriental Philosophy or fantasy football?It's tough to genuflect in the company of non-believers....
Pre Season: I'm still confused why you would of wasted a 2nd round draft pick on him. I got him at the 3:12/4:1 turn in a double serpentine. Most here probably thought that was a reach for him as a 3/4th round pick. Think of the value you coulda had with your 2nd round pick and still gotten ADP in the 4th like most did.After Week 6: 2nd round pick you say? Top 5 easily, maybe Top 2 now?Hi, Redbirds <---------Still confused about Peterson being a 2nd rounder all along?
I'm talking about merit and projected production, not where I would have taken him.On merit and projection, he was a 2nd rounder all along. I got him in every re-draft league I was in...but I didn't have to take him in the 2nd simply because there was a mindset out there that said Benson and Caddy were safer picks. If you can wait on him, go ahead and get him in the 3rd or 4th...Pre Season: I'm still confused why you would of wasted a 2nd round draft pick on him. I got him at the 3:12/4:1 turn in a double serpentine. Most here probably thought that was a reach for him as a 3/4th round pick. Think of the value you coulda had with your 2nd round pick and still gotten ADP in the 4th like most did.After Week 6: 2nd round pick you say? Top 5 easily, maybe Top 2 now?Hi, Redbirds <---------
P.S. I wasted my 2nd round pick on Brees so what do I know...
Great minds F&L, great minds.
He meant in Week 6 vs. the Bears.
He may be on to something. There's a better-than-average chance that after one more game like this week, Childress will move him to special teams exclusively to "keep his legs fresh" for next year.
I think a lot of these anti AD posters have him confused with Adrian Peterson of the Bears. AD is a late 2nd rd pick without a doubt and I wouldn't touch any of those guys with AD still on the board.lol you think Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green have less risk and more upside than Adrian Peterson?I can't think of a RB who has less upside than Jamal Lewis. Ahman Green had a nice season last year but is now on Houston and was on the injury list every other week last season.None. And it's not even close.All right guys... tell me which RB you would take in the 4th instead of Peterson then... we'll use the FBG redraft rankings to see who's available... who has less risk and more upside than Peterson?This makes perfect sense to me. Nice post.
Ahman Green
Marion Barber III
Marshawn Lynch
Jerious Norwood
Jamal Lewis
DeAngelo Williams
Julius Jones
Fred Taylor
Tatum BellTell me why these guys have less risk and more upside than Peterson... TIAThe man crush some people have on this guy is unreal.
Green and Lewis should both go before him, no doubt. Barber III probably should too. Everyone else on the list I would probably take Peterson before.
I'm not buying AD in the 2nd round, but there's no way I would take Green/Lewis ahead of him.
I probably should've taken Lynch too.I want to thank the people in this thread, because as a result of what I learned here AND what I saw in preseason, I did grab him in every league I'm in. Thank you.
I'd say my logic played out well. Better yet, I didn't get Brees, Bulger or McNabb, but rather Kitna and Romo in rounds 6 and 8. Seems there are lots of guys who won't go out on the limb and reach on a player because they're too fixated on projections and averages and such. Bottom line, if I wanted Peterson in my league, I had to pick him in round 2, he wasn't making it back around to me in round 3, and not only was it not a reach, but it's probably the best second round pick in our league this year.But, thanks to the doubters, it'll make it that much easier to get guys like this cheap in future years too. Thanks.
Yeah...I would also like to thank the board and those pro AP folks in this thread. The thread was very insightful and y'all convinced me to "swing for the fences". I took AP in all 3 of my leagues, although I was able to snag him after the 2nd round (3.01 in my keeper and 5.01 in both of my redrafts).
:( Swing for the fences...Talents like ADP don't come around every year.
BUMP
Starting Lynch and ADP today is a GOOOOOOOOOD THING!
