ADP for leagues that start 2 QB (1 Viewer)

[doughboydeluxe]

Anyone know where ADP is available for leagues that start 2 QB? The terms ADP and 2 QB are too short to search for, and I browsed the first few pages and didn't see anything. Antsports and MFL don't give 2 QB options, and its a pretty significant change. Using the mock draft in the Draft Dominator is pretty useless if you start 2 QB and don't import your own ADP spreadsheet.

 

[gocats]

Im interested in this also

 

[fridayfrenzy]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

 

[Z-Dog]

I've been playing a a 2 QB league for about 5 years now. QBs start coming off the board in round 2. This year, after Manning, there is a lot more uncertainty at QB, with Palmer and McNabb coming off of injuries (and with McNabb losing Owens). Maybe they fall to the third round. I think you could pretty much use the regular ADP, but bump the first 12 QBs up by a round and a smidge, and the next 6 by about two rounds and the next 6 by about three rounds.

Think about it this way - assuming you start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, by round 7 most teams will have taken 3 RBs, 1 QB, and 2 WRs. In my experience, most teams will be looking for QB in that round, so I expect about 18-20 QBs to be gone by the end of round 7, and I fully expect a strong run on QBs in that round.

In leagues where people aren't used to the high value of QBs in this format you can probably wait a bit longer on a QB.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Anyone know where ADP is available for leagues that start 2 QB? The terms ADP and 2 QB are too short to search for, and I browsed the first few pages and didn't see anything. Antsports and MFL don't give 2 QB options, and its a pretty significant change. Using the mock draft in the Draft Dominator is pretty useless if you start 2 QB and don't import your own ADP spreadsheet.

I'd expect, with the rise in 2 QB & superflex leagues, that we'll see ADP options in the next year or two at the big ADP sites.However, that ain't helping you much now, is it?

Couple of questions:

1. Are you new to 2 QB leagues?

2. Are you new to the people you're drafting with?

If you're new to 2 QB leagues and/or have never drafted with your leaguemates before, you don't have much choice other than to use "value" as your ADP - the method you described as useless above. Then pay attention to the flow of your draft as it goes. If QBs are running early & value tells you you're not out of line, dive in.

If this is an existing league that you're new to, ask if you can see past drafts. That'll be better than any ADP info you'd find on the internet.

Also, there's a thread that shouldn't be too far back on 2 QB leagues. I think Johnny Titan started it. There were several posters there who are experienced in 2 QB leagues. Maybe they can share their leagues' past draft info to give you a base.

But to reiterate: since 2 QB leagues are fairly new in any kind of numbers, I could see some real differences in the way people draft from league to league (or even within a league) - there's no "book" yet, for better or worse. I'd be a little shy about taking ADP as gospel just yet.

 

[Iceman66]

I have been playing start 2 QB for 8 years. I have been playing with the same guys for many years. In my draft Qb's go fast and furious. In 12 team leagues, manning will go ahead of alexander; Palmer, brady will go before Tiki; mcnabb, bulger eli; go before jordan and james. It is a very fair way to draft based on scarcity and talent. Not your typical RB,RB, RB crap. WR tend to fall some in my league where the good ones (smith, CJ) will go late 2nd early 3rd.

 

[cobalt_27]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

 

[cobalt_27]

I have been playing start 2 QB for 8 years. I have been playing with the same guys for many years. In my draft Qb's go fast and furious. In 12 team leagues, manning will go ahead of alexander; Palmer, brady will go before Tiki; mcnabb, bulger eli; go before jordan and james. It is a very fair way to draft based on scarcity and talent. Not your typical RB,RB, RB crap. WR tend to fall some in my league where the good ones (smith, CJ) will go late 2nd early 3rd.

Amen. Some clear thinking here.

Peyton Manning should have more value than Reuben Droughns. In this format, that will be the case. In traditional leagues, it is not the case. How stupid is that?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

 

[cobalt_27]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

Was this assuming 4pt PaTDs? I don't suspect your mock would change a lot if it were 6pts for those, but it would (should) bump a few more up the ladder to equilibrate the positions a bit more.That's my only beef with some of systems out there: the emphasis on RB is so grossly out of proportion to the real NFL, that I don't attach much realism to building a "team" in those leagues. Basically, it's just a matter of gobbling up RBs and hoping you got the ones that retained or outpaced their value. The rest of the positions are just superfluous.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

QB scoring was 4 points for a passing TD, -1 for an INT, 0.05 pts per passing yard. (1 per 20).

 

[valhallan]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

Jeff, I came away feeling much the same way as cobalt after reading your article.I believe the problem is in using VBD for QBs in a start 2 league. In a normal start 1 league, you can apply VBD to the QB position much the same way you do to other positions because there is an abundance of capable starters. But in a start 2 format, the pool of quarterbacks who are likely to see significant playing time is extremely small compared to that of running backs and wide receivers, many of whom can still see your starting line-up even if they don't actually start for their NFL team.

So I think what I'm saying is that we need to come up with a system that accurately considers the scarcity of quarterbacks in a start 2 league. Anyone who has played in a start 2 league for more than a few seasons knows you have to monitor the draft very closely and jump on QBs before VBD would tell you just to have a shot at being competitive in December.

Perhaps instead of making the "worst starter" the 24th ranked QB, make it the 32nd ranked QB.

 

[Festivus]

I also play in a 2 QB league. Based on history, I expect 12 RB, 8 QB and 4 WR's to be selected in our first 2 rounds.

The top 18-20 RB's and QB's will all be gone by the end of the 4th round. And all the named RB/QB starters will be gone by the 6th.

 

[Romulan]

My experience with 2qb leagues shows that top three are gone before round 2 is finished.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

Jeff, I came away feeling much the same way as cobalt after reading your article.I believe the problem is in using VBD for QBs in a start 2 league. In a normal start 1 league, you can apply VBD to the QB position much the same way you do to other positions because there is an abundance of capable starters. But in a start 2 format, the pool of quarterbacks who are likely to see significant playing time is extremely small compared to that of running backs and wide receivers, many of whom can still see your starting line-up even if they don't actually start for their NFL team.

So I think what I'm saying is that we need to come up with a system that accurately considers the scarcity of quarterbacks in a start 2 league. Anyone who has played in a start 2 league for more than a few seasons knows you have to monitor the draft very closely and jump on QBs before VBD would tell you just to have a shot at being competitive in December.

Perhaps instead of making the "worst starter" the 24th ranked QB, make it the 32nd ranked QB.

Well, at least we're talking about 2-QBs systems. This seems to warrant further investigation, but that will probably have to wait until I update the article next time.

I would, however, encourage anyone else to post here their past experiences in drafting with 2 QBs.

 

[ookook]

Although I agree that 3 QBs often go in the first 2 rounds, that does not mean they should.

I continue to believe that there is great value to be had in start 2 QB leagues later in the draft.

In start 1 QB, I wait until rounds 7 to 9 and grab 2 or 3 in a row.

In start 2, I beleive best value is to wait until rounds 6 to 8 and grab 2 or 3 in a row.

Last year in 2 QB league I went in with Bledsoe and Eli Manning, both of whom I got absurdly late.

This year I would target Delhomme, Brees, Culpepper, Warner, Kitna.

I think realistically look for Delhomme in the 6th (if not fine by me), Culp in 7th, Brees in the 9th, etc.

Basically, look at ADP of 1 QB league and subtract a round.

They key is: Most owners will try to get 1 QB, 2 RB, and 2 WRs BEFORE looking for 2nd QB. That is where I want to run. After they have 1 QB but before many have 2.

 

[Z-Dog]

I think a major point that's being missed here is reliability. QB is the easiest position to predict from year to year, and a QB who is top-10 one year is far more likely top be top-10 the next year than at any other position. And that means that top QBs are worth more because they have lower risk than other players. VBD does not capture this systemic cause for valuing QBs more highly, but experienced players understand it. That's why VBD will tell you that QBs aren't a value until the 4th round, while players will understand that getting Matt Hasselbeck is far superior to taking a risk on Chester Taylor or Willie Parker.

 

[valhallan]

Although I agree that 3 QBs often go in the first 2 rounds, that does not mean they should.

I continue to believe that there is great value to be had in start 2 QB leagues later in the draft.

In start 1 QB, I wait until rounds 7 to 9 and grab 2 or 3 in a row.

In start 2, I beleive best value is to wait until rounds 6 to 8 and grab 2 or 3 in a row.

Last year in 2 QB league I went in with Bledsoe and Eli Manning, both of whom I got absurdly late.

This year I would target Delhomme, Brees, Culpepper, Warner, Kitna.

I think realistically look for Delhomme in the 6th (if not fine by me), Culp in 7th, Brees in the 9th, etc.

Basically, look at ADP of 1 QB league and subtract a round.

They key is: Most owners will try to get 1 QB, 2 RB, and 2 WRs BEFORE looking for 2nd QB. That is where I want to run. After they have 1 QB but before many have 2.

You're right, value can still be had late. It's just that if you happen to miss, the results are disastrous compared to start 1 leagues.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

Anyone know where ADP is available for leagues that start 2 QB? The terms ADP and 2 QB are too short to search for, and I browsed the first few pages and didn't see anything. Antsports and MFL don't give 2 QB options, and its a pretty significant change. Using the mock draft in the Draft Dominator is pretty useless if you start 2 QB and don't import your own ADP spreadsheet.

I'd expect, with the rise in 2 QB & superflex leagues, that we'll see ADP options in the next year or two at the big ADP sites.However, that ain't helping you much now, is it?

Couple of questions:

1. Are you new to 2 QB leagues?

2. Are you new to the people you're drafting with?

If you're new to 2 QB leagues and/or have never drafted with your leaguemates before, you don't have much choice other than to use "value" as your ADP - the method you described as useless above. Then pay attention to the flow of your draft as it goes. If QBs are running early & value tells you you're not out of line, dive in.

If this is an existing league that you're new to, ask if you can see past drafts. That'll be better than any ADP info you'd find on the internet.

Also, there's a thread that shouldn't be too far back on 2 QB leagues. I think Johnny Titan started it. There were several posters there who are experienced in 2 QB leagues. Maybe they can share their leagues' past draft info to give you a base.

But to reiterate: since 2 QB leagues are fairly new in any kind of numbers, I could see some real differences in the way people draft from league to league (or even within a league) - there's no "book" yet, for better or worse. I'd be a little shy about taking ADP as gospel just yet.

I am not new to 2 QB leagues. One of my leagues has always been a 2 QB league (and superflex, so you could start 3 QB if you wanted), but another of my leagues is converting to a 2 QB league this year. I have draft info for the league that is historically 2 QB, but I was hoping I could find some ADP info out there that would tell me if the data I have is valid to use for the new league or if my league's drafting is out of the ordinary in any way, especially considering the superflex.

 

[ceo3west]

I think a major point that's being missed here is reliability. QB is the easiest position to predict from year to year, and a QB who is top-10 one year is far more likely top be top-10 the next year than at any other position.

Just to add my two cents, this is precisely why I prefer a system that is weighted towards RB's. Anyone can pick Jake Plummer, Aaron Brooks or Kurt Warner, but who can pick (using last year for example) Thomas Jones, Willie Parker or Mike Anderson. I beleive you should be rewarded for that.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Although I agree that 3 QBs often go in the first 2 rounds, that does not mean they should.

I continue to believe that there is great value to be had in start 2 QB leagues later in the draft.

In start 1 QB, I wait until rounds 7 to 9 and grab 2 or 3 in a row.

In start 2, I beleive best value is to wait until rounds 6 to 8 and grab 2 or 3 in a row.

Last year in 2 QB league I went in with Bledsoe and Eli Manning, both of whom I got absurdly late.

This year I would target Delhomme, Brees, Culpepper, Warner, Kitna.

I think realistically look for Delhomme in the 6th (if not fine by me), Culp in 7th, Brees in the 9th, etc.

Basically, look at ADP of 1 QB league and subtract a round.

They key is: Most owners will try to get 1 QB, 2 RB, and 2 WRs BEFORE looking for 2nd QB. That is where I want to run. After they have 1 QB but before many have 2.

I agree more with the second bolded statement than the first. For years, I'd wait for 10 QBs to be gone then draft 2 in a row (unless some stupid, silly value fell). Invariably, one would always be a QB I'd have ranked around #5 & the other would be - at worst - between #10-15. I started doing this in a start-one league, but I still do something similar now that our league has gone superflex. Rounds don't matter with this, just supply.

 

[Raptors]

I play in a 16 team league where you can start up to 2 QBs (but also up to 4 RBs). It would be a toss-up between Manning, LJ, and Tomlinson as to the first player off the board. Perhaps smaller leagues carry less importance on the QB, but in this league there is no way Manning slips by the #3 pick.

Edit to add: This is a dynasty league which significantly impacts the value of QB vs RB as QB longevity is generally a lot longer.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I am not new to 2 QB leagues. One of my leagues has always been a 2 QB league (and superflex, so you could start 3 QB if you wanted), but another of my leagues is converting to a 2 QB league this year. I have draft info for the league that is historically 2 QB, but I was hoping I could find some ADP info out there that would tell me if the data I have is valid to use for the new league or if my league's drafting is out of the ordinary in any way, especially considering the superflex.

Wow. That's the first time I've ever seen a league that starts three. What's the first round of that sucker look like?As I said, I think (for now) that 2 QB leagues are probably a little more idiosynchratic & quirky - mainly because I doubt many newer drafters have a handle on the value adjustment yet. You probably have more experience than 99% of 2 QB league drafters. You're supposed to be telling us how it goes

 

[Romulan]

In a new startup 14 team keeper idp league (keep3) starts 2qb 3rb 5wr 2te I positioned myself through trades to be able to have the 5th and 6th pick in the first round. It hurt me bad as now after those two picks my next pick is in the 4th round 51st overall... I did this trade for one puprose to get Payton Manning with one of those picks. This way next year I will have a stud rb and Manning as two of my three keepers. In this league qb's td's are ONLY worth 3 points but QB's are STILL extremely valuable as its 16 teams which means some teams will be left with only one qb that is even a starter in some weeks.

P.S. Some will argue that I should select two rb's back to back 5 and 6 but we lose our first round pick next year if we keep more then one rb, so I gladly will take Manning!

 

[doughboydeluxe]

I am not new to 2 QB leagues. One of my leagues has always been a 2 QB league (and superflex, so you could start 3 QB if you wanted), but another of my leagues is converting to a 2 QB league this year. I have draft info for the league that is historically 2 QB, but I was hoping I could find some ADP info out there that would tell me if the data I have is valid to use for the new league or if my league's drafting is out of the ordinary in any way, especially considering the superflex.

Wow. That's the first time I've ever seen a league that starts three. What's the first round of that sucker look like?As I said, I think (for now) that 2 QB leagues are probably a little more idiosynchratic & quirky - mainly because I doubt many newer drafters have a handle on the value adjustment yet. You probably have more experience than 99% of 2 QB league drafters. You're supposed to be telling us how it goes

Since you asked, here is where QBs were selected in last year's draft by round:Round 1 - 1

Round 2 - 3

Round 3 - 2

Round 4 - 3

Round 5 - 6

Round 6 - 1

Round 7 - 8

Round 8 - 5

Round 9 - 4

Round 10 - 3

Total QBs selected in first 120 picks: 36

Total RBs selected in first 120 picks: 38

Total WRs selected in first 120 picks: 44

Total DEFs selected in first 120 picks: 2 (GB 'em)

Think this is close to most 2 QB leagues? The way our scoring works, QB, RB, and WR are all fairly equal as far as scoring goes, so playing a QB as a flex isn't a no-brainer like it would be using standard FBG scoring. I think this fact might keep the superflex from affecting the draft too much.

 

[Romulan]

So...........

 

[BrentBlack]

Here is another listing of QB's taken by round (last year).

Round 1-2

Round 2-1

Round 3-4

Round 4-5

Round 5-0

Round 6-4

Round 7-1

Round 8-6

After Round 8-6

FWIW not a "true" 2QB League (1 Qb + 1 Superflex) but almost every team will start 2 QB's.

 

[Tick]

I'd love to see a Dodds Perfect Draft article for 2QBs this season.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

The first 8 rounds in my superflex league had QBs going:

1. 3

2. 2

3. 1

4. 1

5. 3

6. 3

7. 4

8. 4

So, all but three teams had their 2nd QB after 8 rounds (the other 3 had theirs by round 11).

 

[finnref]

Seems like round 8 is significant. In my 2qb league last 2 years (10teams) 20 qbs are gone by round 8 with round 7 being heavy for qb 2 being taken with 6-7 each year. rb are still heavy in rounds 1-2 with 16 taken in each of the last 2 years.

 

[Tick]

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

It seems that a lot of people are chiming in to say that QBs go earlier in their 2Q drafts. I wonder if a major rework of VBD baselines is needed; with about 45 RBs holding value each week and only 32 QBs holding value each week, the baselines may need to be adjusted pretty heavily.After all, if you look at Joe's Secret Formula, it bears little resemblance to his original VBD article; he's adapted it to fit the realities of how people draft. Follow the original ADP article and you could end up drafting Gates 4th overall in some scoring systems. Use the VBD app, though, and Joe's formula will artificially drive down Gates's value to a mid-second-round pick.

Perhaps something similar needs to be done with QB value in VBD/Dominater to make the values line up with the reality of 2Q leagues.

 

[H.K.]

Hey guys, I've been in a ten team start 2 QB redraft league for 10+ years (4 pts PA TD, 6 Rush/rec, with decimal scoring). Start 2 QB/2RB/2WR/TE/K/D & 2 Flex(not QB).

Using the past four drafts, here are the average number of QB's selected each round:

Round 1: 2 QB's taken this round / 2 total

Round 2: 2 QB's taken this round / 4 total

Round 3: 2.5 QB's taken this round / 6.5 total

Round 4: 2 QB's taken this round / 8.5 total

Round 5: 3.8 QB's taken this round / 12.3 total

Round 6: 2 QB's taken this round / 14.3 total

Round 7: 2 QB's taken this round / 16.3 total

Round 8: 1.5 QB's taken this round / 17.8 total

Round 9: 1.3 QB's taken this round / 19.1 total

Round 10: 1.3 QB's taken this round / 20.3 total

Round 11: 2.5 QB's taken this round / 22.8 total

Round 12: 1.5 QB's taken this round / 24.3 total

Basically (in this league anyway), I know I can wait until round 7 & 8 to get my QB's. I'll load up on RB & WR, then roll with Kitna & Warner as my starters.

Run the VBD for 2 QB leagues, usually requiring two to start will dilute their value.

 

[redaddy25]

This is my 6th season in a 10 team 2QB / 3RB / 3WR / 1TE / 2K / 2D league... 6 TD / -4 INT / 25 yds Pass 1 PT / 10 yds Rush 1 Pt

Here is the last 3 years worth of data since I have in on hand. The first number is the overall pick...

2005

3 QB 1

14 QB 2

21 QB 3

31 QB 4

39 QB 5

40 QB 6

43 QB 7

44 QB 8

2004

10 QB 1

13 QB 2

20 QB 3

26 QB 4

27 QB 5

41 QB 6

42 QB 7

43 QB 8

50 QB 9

2003

11 QB 1

14 QB 2

15 QB 3

19 QB 4

24 QB 5

26 QB 6

36 QB 7

40 QB 8

42 QB 9

45 QB 10

49 QB 11

League is very competitive with the same group of guys since the beginning so they draft pretty good.

 

[Usual Suspect]

Excellent thread!

Thank you doughboy for the redirect.

I've been playing in multiple 2QB leagues for 10+ years and I agree that league history is the best way to go. At the same time it would be nice to see some ADP reports on 2QB leagues. I like to use the DD but find that I have to manually do the first 7-8 rounds to try and get a fairly accurate result. Using the VDB tab and altering the positional rankings allows me to get a fairly good cheatsheet from the DD, so that is nice.

My main league is a little different in that we can keep 3 players so take this info for what its worth. The keepers are not included in my numbers (keepers = PalmerR6, BulgerR11, DelhomeR14, LeftwhichR10, CollinsR11 and BreesR9).

2005

R1 - 3QB

R2 - 1QB

R3 - 3QB

R4 - 5QB

R5 - 1QB

R6 - 1QB

R7 - 4QB

R8 - 3QB

R9 - 4QB (31 QBs off the board, including the keepers)

Analysis

6 teams had selected QB2 by R4 with the other 4 teams getting QB2 R5-7. Round 7-9 showed a big run in grabbing QB3.

This has been pretty consistent the past 3 years. Top 3-5QBs off the board by end of R2 with all teams having at least 1QB by R4. About 50% of teams will grab 2nd QB R4-5 and then a big run will happen R7-9 picking up the remaining QBs from the NFL starting pool of 32.

 

[H.K.]

Great thread guys, Keep it coming!

FWIW, I always wait to grab my QB's, usually I am the last to get two, however, I also usually am one of the first to grab three.

Every year QB's emerge that are ranked in the high teens and early 20's that go on to be top 10 guys. I figure if I can grab three in that range, one will pan out, one will bust and one will be average. I'll have two starters that will be competitive each week and a bye week filler.

Based on current ADP, I bolded the guys I think can outperform their draft spot for those interested in waiting on QB's:

QB14 Jake Plummer Den/4

QB15 Drew Brees NO/7

QB16 Aaron Brooks Oak/3

QB17 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4

QB18 Brett Favre GB/6

QB19 Byron Leftwich Jac/6

QB20 Steve McNair Ten/7

QB21 David Carr Hou/5

QB22 Philip Rivers SD/3

QB23 Chris Simms TB/4

QB24 Jon Kitna Det/8

QB25 Mark Brunell Was/8

QB26 Brad Johnson Min/6

QB27 Vince Young Ten/7

QB28 Matt Leinart Ari/9

QB29 Charlie Frye Cle/6

QB30 Billy Volek Ten/7

QB31 Rex Grossman Chi/7

QB32 Chad Pennington NYJ/9

 

[doughboydeluxe]

I like to use the DD but find that I have to manually do the first 7-8 rounds to try and get a fairly accurate result.

Something else you may try doing is going into the ADP file in DD and manually changing the values for QBs using historical values for your league. This helps when using the Mock Draft function.

 

[ipljeff]

Is anyone willing to set up a mock draft for those of us who play in 2QB Leagues?

Last year was my 1st year in a 2 QB league. Heres where the QBs were taken.

Round 1 - 2

Round 2 - 1

Round 3 - 3

Round 4 - 1

Round 5 - 2

Round 6 - 4

Round 7 - 1

Round 8 - 0

Round 9 - 1

Round 10 - 0

Round 11 - 1

Round 12 - 2

Round 13 - 4

 

[ipljeff]

Is a 2 QB mock possible? How would we set it up?

 

[Plainsman]

Someone could set up a fake league at yahoo that we could use as a mock and then post the results here.

 

[JohnnyTitan]

Don't have much time to make a sophisticated post right now, but many of you know I've been a STRONG proponent of 2QB leagues for a very long time. The two money leagues I commish have been 2QB for over 10 years each. (One 10 team league, one 12 team league).

I just wanted to add that if anyone here is frustrated by the difficulty in predicting how a 2QB draft goes....that is actually the beauty of it !!

I totally agree that it will depend on the league itself. I firmly believe that Championship teams in this format can be build in any manner...I've even seen people go WR-WR in the first two and then make some good value QB / RB picks later on and put together great teams.

One of my leagues goes QB early and often. So the strategy of "I can still get Delhomme in the 7th" goes right out the window when pretty much every team is drafting their second QB by rounds 4 or 5. It really depends on the league itself..and even beyond that how the GMs try to build their team that year based on value they see / runs that happen early on. But although it is VERY hard for many 2QB novices to understand, a team in my leauge with Palmer / McNabb would be perfectly competitive with Alexander / Jordan or a team with Owens / CJohnson. It's the way to go!!

 

[Iceman66]

here we go

Round 1

1. S. Alexander Avoid the Clap

2. L. Johnson Still Niners...

3. P. Manning Montreal Mac...

4. C. Portis lilraps26

5. L. Tomlinson xxxx

6. C. Palmer Milkman's Ni...

7. L. Jordan Icemen

8. T. Barber Replacements

9. E. James Cyberjocks

10. R. Johnson Carolina

11. T. Green HotBoxDestro...

12. S. Smith i love balls

Round 2

1. S. Jackson i love balls

2. M. Harrison HotBoxDestro...

3. L. Fitzgerald Carolina

4. T. Brady Cyberjocks

5. C. Johnson Replacements

6. T. Holt Icemen

7. T. Owens Milkman's Ni...

8. R. Brown xxxx

9. D. Davis lilraps26

10. C. Williams Montreal Mac...

11. J. Jones Still Niners...

12. A. Boldin Avoid the Clap

Round 3

1. R. Moss Avoid the Clap

2. R. Bush Still Niners...

3. B. Westbrook Montreal Mac...

4. C. Chambers lilraps26

5. E. Manning xxxx

6. W. McGahee Milkman's Ni...

7. M. Bulger Icemen

8. H. Ward Replacements

9. A. Gates Cyberjocks

10. R. Droughns Carolina

11. Carolina HotBoxDestro...

12. W. Parker i love balls

Round 4

1. Sa. Moss i love balls

2. A. Crumpler HotBoxDestro...

3. R. Wayne Carolina

4. M. Hasselbeck Cyberjocks

5. J. Shockey Replacements

6. D. Jackson Icemen

7. D. McNabb Milkman's Ni...

8. P. Burress xxxx

9. D. Culpepper lilraps26

10. Ro. Williams Montreal Mac...

11. A. Johnson Still Niners...

12. W. Dunn Avoid the Clap

Round 5

1. J. Galloway Avoid the Clap

2. J. Walker Still Niners...

3. T. Houshmandzadeh Montreal Mac...

4. D. Bledsoe lilraps26

5. D. Driver xxxx

6. T. Gonzalez Milkman's Ni...

7. T. Heap Icemen

8. Chicago Replacements

9. Pittsburgh Cyberjocks

10. Ro. Smith Carolina

11. L. Evans HotBoxDestro...

12. D. Branch i love balls

Round 6

1. J. Delhomme i love balls

2. N. Rackers HotBoxDestro...

3. K. Warner Carolina

4. A. Vinatieri Cyberjocks

5. J. Plummer Replacements

6. K. Jones Icemen

7. C. Dillon Milkman's Ni...

8. Mi. Vick xxxx

9. J. Horn lilraps26

10. B. Favre Montreal Mac...

11. D. Brees Still Niners...

12. J. Witten Avoid the Clap

Round 7

1. B. Roethlisberger Avoid the Clap

2. D. Mason Still Niners...

3. N. Burleson Montreal Mac...

4. K. McCardell lilraps26

5. T. Bell xxxx

6. Baltimore Milkman's Ni...

7. A. Brooks Icemen

8. D. McAllister Replacements

9. T. Jones Cyberjocks

10. C. Cooley Carolina

11. J. Lewis HotBoxDestro...

12. R. McMichael i love balls

Round 8

1. New York i love balls

2. C. Taylor HotBoxDestro...

3. B. Leftwich Carolina

4. M. Muhammad Cyberjocks

5. M. Vanderjagt Replacements

6. K. Robinson Icemen

7. R. Brown Milkman's Ni...

8. L. Smith xxxx

9. Da. Clark lilraps26

10. Ma. Jones Montreal Mac...

11. Indianapolis Still Niners...

12. M. Brunell Avoid the Clap

Round 9

1. J. Feely Avoid the Clap

2. A. Green Still Niners...

3. F. Taylor Montreal Mac...

4. Seattle lilraps26

5. J. Addai xxxx

6. S. McNair Milkman's Ni...

7. R. Dayne Icemen

8. E. Kennison Replacements

9. D. Stallworth Cyberjocks

10. J. Elam Carolina

11. L. Coles HotBoxDestro...

12. B. Johnson i love balls

Round 10

1. S. Graham i love balls

2. C. Pennington HotBoxDestro...

3. Tampa Bay Carolina

4. T. Glenn Cyberjocks

5. D. Carr Replacements

6. J. Kitna Icemen

7. A. Bryant Milkman's Ni...

8. D. Bennett xxxx

9. D. Akers lilraps26

10. C. Rogers Montreal Mac...

11. H. Miller Still Niners...

12. Denver Avoid the Clap

Round 11

1. K. Curtis Avoid the Clap

2. P. Rivers Still Niners...

3. V. Davis Montreal Mac...

4. A. Randle El lilraps26

5. B. Volek xxxx

6. F. Gore Milkman's Ni...

7. Mi. Clayton Icemen

8. D. Foster Replacements

9. C. Martin Cyberjocks

10. L. Maroney Carolina

11. Arizona HotBoxDestro...

12. C. Brown i love balls

Round 12

1. K. Johnson i love balls

2. L. White HotBoxDestro...

3. J. Porter Carolina

4. I. Bruce Cyberjocks

5. B. Watson Replacements

6. C. Benson Icemen

7. B. Edwards Milkman's Ni...

8. D. Rhodes xxxx

9. New England lilraps26

10. C. Simms Montreal Mac...

11. J. Wilkins Still Niners...

12. V. Young Avoid the Clap

Round 13

1. Atlanta Avoid the Clap

2. E. Moulds Still Niners...

3. D. Williams Montreal Mac...

4. K. Barlow lilraps26

5. Jacksonville xxxx

6. Cincinnati Milkman's Ni...

7. J. Jurevicius Icemen

8. B. Lloyd Replacements

9. J. Stevens Cyberjocks

10. B. Troupe Carolina

11. D. Givens HotBoxDestro...

12. A. Toomer i love balls

Round 14

1. J. Brown i love balls

2. E. Wilford HotBoxDestro...

3. Ma. Clayton Carolina

4. N. Kaeding Cyberjocks

5. J. Kasay Replacements

6. S. Janikowski Icemen

7. A. Smith Milkman's Ni...

8. K. Winslow xxxx

9. M. Lewis lilraps26

10. Philadelphia Montreal Mac...

11. Washington Still Niners...

12. J. Putzier Avoid the Clap

Round 15

1. R. Longwell Avoid the Clap

2. J. Wiggins Still Niners...

3. M. Leinart Montreal Mac...

4. J. McCown lilraps26

5. L. Tynes xxxx

6. B. Franks Milkman's Ni...

7. R. Grossman Icemen

8. Miami Replacements

9. Dallas Cyberjocks

10. J. Reed Carolina

11. C. Frye HotBoxDestro...

12. Minnesota i love balls

Round 16

1. K. Boller i love balls

2. M. Stover HotBoxDestro...

3. Buffalo Carolina

4. P. Ramsey Cyberjocks

5. B. Griese Replacements

6. P. Price Icemen

7. J. Nedney Milkman's Ni...

8. R. White xxxx

9. R. Lindell lilraps26

10. B. Calhoun Montreal Mac...

11. S. Holmes Still Niners...

12. Si. Moss Avoid the Clap

Round 17

1. P. Holmes Avoid the Clap

2. M. Booker Still Niners...

3. San Diego Montreal Mac...

4. M. Jenkins lilraps26

5. M. Bradley xxxx

6. O. Mare Milkman's Ni...

7. New York Icemen

8. J. McCareins Replacements

9. C. Jackson Cyberjocks

10. C. Nall Carolina

11. M. Pollard HotBoxDestro...

12. E. Kinney i love balls

ADVERTISEMENT

 

[Iceman66]

Another real start 2 QB league

Round 1

1. S. Alexander Love

2. B. Westbrook andrewandthe...

3. L. Johnson All the Way

4. E. James MR'S RULE

5. L. Tomlinson DAUNTE STEVO

6. P. Manning Winnipeg Jets

7. C. Portis Kickin' Cowboys

8. T. Barber Terry's Pain...

9. R. Johnson Icemen

10. S. Smith falconz

11. S. Jackson Sting

12. C. Williams WannabeBallaz

Round 2

1. R. Brown WannabeBallaz

2. L. Fitzgerald Sting

3. L. Jordan falconz

4. C. Palmer Icemen

5. C. Johnson Terry's Pain...

6. T. Holt Kickin' Cowboys

7. D. Davis Winnipeg Jets

8. T. Owens DAUNTE STEVO

9. A. Boldin MR'S RULE

10. M. Harrison All the Way

11. D. McNabb andrewandthe...

12. T. Brady Love

Round 3

1. A. Gates Love

2. W. McGahee andrewandthe...

3. C. Taylor All the Way

4. J. Jones MR'S RULE

5. T. Gonzalez DAUNTE STEVO

6. C. Chambers Winnipeg Jets

7. R. Moss Kickin' Cowboys

8. H. Ward Terry's Pain...

9. R. Wayne Icemen

10. R. Droughns falconz

11. W. Dunn Sting

12. Sa. Moss WannabeBallaz

Round 4

1. M. Hasselbeck WannabeBallaz

2. E. Manning Sting

3. D. Jackson falconz

4. K. Jones Icemen

5. M. Bulger Terry's Pain...

6. W. Parker Kickin' Cowboys

7. R. Bush Winnipeg Jets

8. D. Culpepper DAUNTE STEVO

9. P. Burress MR'S RULE

10. Ro. Williams All the Way

11. R. Brown andrewandthe...

12. Chicago Love

Round 5

1. J. Galloway Love

2. J. Shockey andrewandthe...

3. J. Delhomme All the Way

4. T. Heap MR'S RULE

5. T. Green DAUNTE STEVO

6. D. Bledsoe Winnipeg Jets

7. A. Crumpler Kickin' Cowboys

8. T. Bell Terry's Pain...

9. D. Driver Icemen

10. K. Warner falconz

11. A. Johnson Sting

12. D. Foster WannabeBallaz

Round 6

1. J. Walker WannabeBallaz

2. J. Witten Sting

3. C. Cooley falconz

4. Mi. Vick Icemen

5. B. Favre Terry's Pain...

6. B. Roethlisberger Kickin' Cowboys

7. H. Miller Winnipeg Jets

8. A. Green DAUNTE STEVO

9. J. Plummer MR'S RULE

10. D. McAllister All the Way

11. T. Houshmandzadeh andrewandthe...

12. A. Vinatieri Love

Round 7

1. C. Dillon Love

2. D. Brees andrewandthe...

3. R. Dayne All the Way

4. New York MR'S RULE

5. A. Brooks DAUNTE STEVO

6. Carolina Winnipeg Jets

7. B. Leftwich Kickin' Cowboys

8. R. McMichael Terry's Pain...

9. J. Lewis Icemen

10. M. Brunell falconz

11. N. Rackers Sting

12. B. Watson WannabeBallaz

Round 8

1. C. Simms WannabeBallaz

2. Pittsburgh Sting

3. M. Vanderjagt falconz

4. L. Smith Icemen

5. F. Gore Terry's Pain...

6. J. Feely Kickin' Cowboys

7. N. Burleson Winnipeg Jets

8. Baltimore DAUNTE STEVO

9. J. Elam MR'S RULE

10. J. Kitna All the Way

11. Indianapolis andrewandthe...

12. Ro. Smith Love

Round 9

1. S. McNair Love

2. S. Graham andrewandthe...

3. Jacksonville All the Way

4. B. Johnson MR'S RULE

5. L. Coles DAUNTE STEVO

6. J. Addai Winnipeg Jets

7. Seattle Kickin' Cowboys

8. Tampa Bay Terry's Pain...

9. D. Mason Icemen

10. Denver falconz

11. C. Pennington Sting

12. Miami WannabeBallaz

Round 10

1. D. Akers WannabeBallaz

2. T. Jones Sting

3. F. Taylor falconz

4. P. Rivers Icemen

5. D. Carr Terry's Pain...

6. C. Martin Kickin' Cowboys

7. J. Horn Winnipeg Jets

8. D. Hall DAUNTE STEVO

9. D. Branch MR'S RULE

10. V. Davis All the Way

11. L. Evans andrewandthe...

12. L. Maroney Love

Round 11

1. K. McCardell Love

2. C. Brown andrewandthe...

3. B. Volek All the Way

4. L. White MR'S RULE

5. J. Kasay DAUNTE STEVO

6. A. Smith Winnipeg Jets

7. M. Muhammad Kickin' Cowboys

8. K. Robinson Terry's Pain...

9. J. Brown Icemen

10. E. Kennison falconz

11. D. Stallworth Sting

12. Ma. Jones WannabeBallaz

Round 12

1. C. Benson WannabeBallaz

2. Da. Clark Sting

3. J. Stevens falconz

4. Dallas Icemen

5. R. Longwell Terry's Pain...

6. B. Troupe Kickin' Cowboys

7. J. Hanson Winnipeg Jets

8. D. Williams DAUNTE STEVO

9. Cincinnati MR'S RULE

10. M. Bennett All the Way

11. N. Kaeding andrewandthe...

12. M. Lewis Love

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[Chaka]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

McNabb in the 5th? I see that you did not do a direct autodraft but just checking the current VBD application and changing it to 2 starting QBs it indicates that among the top 48 rated players 11 are QBs, so even without doing an auto draft I have trouble understanding why you only pulled 4 QBs off the board in the first 48 picks in your article. There seems to be a disconnect between your mock and VBD.FWIW In my 12 team, start 2 QB league we consistiently see 18 QBs come off the board within the first 48 picks.

 

[Z-Dog]

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

It seems that a lot of people are chiming in to say that QBs go earlier in their 2Q drafts. I wonder if a major rework of VBD baselines is needed; with about 45 RBs holding value each week and only 32 QBs holding value each week, the baselines may need to be adjusted pretty heavily.After all, if you look at Joe's Secret Formula, it bears little resemblance to his original VBD article; he's adapted it to fit the realities of how people draft. Follow the original ADP article and you could end up drafting Gates 4th overall in some scoring systems. Use the VBD app, though, and Joe's formula will artificially drive down Gates's value to a mid-second-round pick.

Perhaps something similar needs to be done with QB value in VBD/Dominater to make the values line up with the reality of 2Q leagues.

The last starter baseline for VBD does not account for the fact that the last starters at each position are not precisely equal in value. This is true for a variety of reasons: the potential upside of a last RB is significantly higher than that of the last WR, the last starter at QB carries more risk of zero performance because of losing his job than the last RB, and the last WR faces significantly less injury risk than either QB or RB. And that's just a few of the reasons. There's always the lurking problem that VBD doesn't do a good job of responding to clustered values, like at QB, where QB7-20 are separated by a handful of points, and the related problem that it is quite difficult to assign true values to backup players, since you don't usually earn the points that they score, b/c they are on your bench.Joe's method seeks to make adjustments, and has settled on something like using the 100th player chosen as a baseline. He doesn't explain in detail what he's doing, but basically, he's trying to find the spot where the dropoff from position to position is about the same, and calls that the baseline point. It's an improvement, but it doesn't work well with 2QB leagues.

To adjust for 2 QB leagues, I usually use the user-defined baselines option in DD. The exact numbers depend on the league setup, but basically, I've abandoned trying to find a 'true' mathematical approach to setting a baseline. I use a variety of different baseline and valuation methods, some of which give more weight to reliability, others of which are risk neutral, and try to come up with an overall draft strategy rather than the 'wait for the values to come to you' VBD approach. After all, just b/c VBD tells you it's time to pick Randy Moss doesn't mean that you want to pick him. And if you do pick him, it will affect the rest of your draft, as you now have to cover for the risk you've assumed.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

McNabb in the 5th? I see that you did not do a direct autodraft but just checking the current VBD application and changing it to 2 starting QBs it indicates that among the top 48 rated players 11 are QBs, so even without doing an auto draft I have trouble understanding why you only pulled 4 QBs off the board in the first 48 picks in your article. There seems to be a disconnect between your mock and VBD.FWIW In my 12 team, start 2 QB league we consistiently see 18 QBs come off the board within the first 48 picks.

Hi Chaka,I did an autodraft using the DD, and it was a trainwreck compared to what probably should happen.

I personally picked for all 12 teams using the DD as a guide, but not as a "be all end all" to make a call on a player.

Basically, the point of the mock was not to provide an ADP guide, but to show that (A) 12 teams are viable with starting 2 QBs and (B) QBs will go far earlier than in a normal redraft league.

Overall, QBs went about 1-3 rounds earlier than expected, with most quality QBs gone by Rounds 9-11. (About 26-30 gone).

That seems consistent with other drafts I'm seeing here, and the contention is when will you take your first QB / when will the first QB run occur? The answer to that really depends on your league and your scoring system. If QBs are scored in the FBG way (4 for a TD, 0.05 per yard passing, -1 for an INT) then they will go later than in a better performance league where they get 6 for a TD.

Considering the small samples we have for 2 QB leagues, ADPs are hard to judge (and even harder with different scoring systems).

 

[Chaka]

To me, it seems that the picks in Jeff's article are off, as I would imagine more than one QB being taken before the 4th round in a 2 QB league.

Fridayfrenzy,I'd be interested in any comments you have on the article.

I thought I played each team pretty tight to the vest. The values weren't screaming to pick a QB in Round 3, so McNabb, Brady and company fell to Round 4.

-Jeff

Jeff, you didn't solicit my opinion, but I'll jump in with my .02, nonetheless...I read the article, liked the premise, and was disappointed in the payoff at the end, frankly. If I read it correctly, you predicted how a draft under this format might go. If that's the case, I think there was still the ghost of 1QBx2RB in the background dictating value.

No way that few QBs go in the first 5 rounds with a 2x2 format. By projections, alone, there would be more than a handful of teams who would effort to secure one of the top-5 QBs, even in what projects as a down year for the position. My experience last year was that 3 QBs (Manning, CPepp, McNabb) went in the first round. There should be absolutely no bias, under this format, for the continued insanity of picking RB-RB-RB-RB...which is pretty much how your mock draft went.

cobalt,Unsolicited opinions are still welcome.

My mock draft was not an autodraft using the DD, but it did use FBG scoring and the projections from there. I just went back and looked again at the first 4-7 rounds of a mock draft. Based on VBD and DVBD, only Peyton SHOULD go in the first round and then there should be a rolloff until Round 4 and Brady. Hass and McNabb should be in the 5th.

The drafts you are involved in seem to overcompensate in the other direction, but that's where knowing your own league has its own value. Having 3 QBs going in the first round would seem to give a big advantage to a team that waited to get a QB a few rounds later and started in a RB-RB-WR-QB pattern.

Again, if your league typicall gobbles up QBs so early, then I can understand that my mock looks far different than yours. The point of the mock in the article was not so much to provide ADP but to show that 12 teams could address QB concerns and still have viable franchises. Sorry that you did not like when/where the QBs were selected, but they are actually for the most part drafted earlier than a blind auto-draft would select them.

McNabb in the 5th? I see that you did not do a direct autodraft but just checking the current VBD application and changing it to 2 starting QBs it indicates that among the top 48 rated players 11 are QBs, so even without doing an auto draft I have trouble understanding why you only pulled 4 QBs off the board in the first 48 picks in your article. There seems to be a disconnect between your mock and VBD.FWIW In my 12 team, start 2 QB league we consistiently see 18 QBs come off the board within the first 48 picks.

Hi Chaka,I did an autodraft using the DD, and it was a trainwreck compared to what probably should happen.

I personally picked for all 12 teams using the DD as a guide, but not as a "be all end all" to make a call on a player.

Basically, the point of the mock was not to provide an ADP guide, but to show that (A) 12 teams are viable with starting 2 QBs and (B) QBs will go far earlier than in a normal redraft league.

Overall, QBs went about 1-3 rounds earlier than expected, with most quality QBs gone by Rounds 9-11. (About 26-30 gone).

That seems consistent with other drafts I'm seeing here, and the contention is when will you take your first QB / when will the first QB run occur? The answer to that really depends on your league and your scoring system. If QBs are scored in the FBG way (4 for a TD, 0.05 per yard passing, -1 for an INT) then they will go later than in a better performance league where they get 6 for a TD.

Considering the small samples we have for 2 QB leagues, ADPs are hard to judge (and even harder with different scoring systems).

I agree that using the DD autodraft funciton is a trainwreck.I also agree that your premise that you can have a 12 team start 2 QB league (we have for 11 years now).

I guess I have two problems with your mock.

1) As people have pointed out it is unlikely in established 2 QBs that only 4 QBs would come off the board in the first 48 picks. You have addressed this point so no need to rehash.

but

2) When the VBD app is telling you that 11 of the top 48 players, ranked by VBD, are QBs then why do you deviate so dramatically from it? I could understand if your mock only had 8 or even 7 QBs in the first 48 picks but 4??? That rings of being to heavily influenced by traditional 1 QB leagues where RBs are the end-all, be-all of draft strategy. I can see this scenario in a 1 QB league that is converting to a 2 QB format but I think it is a specious result at best for any established 2 QB leagues.

After reading your article anyone who is new to a 2 QB league will prepare for the draft thinking that they can still wait on grabbing their top QBs and they will be in for a very rude surprise once the draft begins. I am not saying one must draft a QB with a top 3 pick but you can bet your bottom dollar that their #3 ranked QB will not be available in the 4th round.

Of course every scoring system is different, ours favors QBs a little more, 4 points per TD pass but with no penalty for INTs, and individual drafts always vary but I have data on our league drafts for the past four seasons and the fewest number of QBs we have seen taken by the end of round three is 9. And the last starting QB comes off the board by the end of the 9th round.

Perhaps for next years article you can organize a mock with some of the experienced 2 QB league guys on this forum, using FBG scoring and see how it goes. I for one would be happy to contribute.

p.s. ADP for 2 QB leagues is sparse at best, that is why I started keeping data on our league drafts. I use ADP sites to see general rankings at each position, and then combine that with what I know I can expect from our league drafts.

 

[kolejo]

I've been playing in 2 QB leagues for about 8 years now, there are usually four or five QB's off the board in the first two rounds, although last year there were only 3 gone, but the first pick of round 3 was a QB too, but it depends on scoring systems too, i have a very QB friendly system of pt per 20 yards passing, 6 pt TD, 5 point bonus for 4+ TD's, 10 pt rush/rec, so Manning typically goes anywhere from #3 to #6 off the board overall

 

[valhallan]

Perhaps for next years article you can organize a mock with some of the experienced 2 QB league guys on this forum, using FBG scoring and see how it goes. I for one would be happy to contribute.

I as well. FBG should take a serious look at developing some more 2QB content, as that is a totally unserved market right now.

 

[Tick]

Regarding VBD and the Dominator, the Dominator uses a dynamic VBD formula for giving the best pick advice, and clumps of players (like QB4-15 or so) often have their value driven down.