ADP lists don't even seem right (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I was reviewing the ADP lists in order to try and figure out some overall draft strategies based on what should be available. I like to play with them to test things.

Examples:

I'll look at: If I get "this WR in round 2, with this QB in round 3," what RBs will be left in the 4th?

Or if "I wait on QB and load up on RBs/WRs early," what QBs will be available in the 8th and beyond?

In order to really see how these things play out, you have to know you can rely on the ADP lists. But they seem odd to me. I was just looking over the Non-PPR ADP list on this site to see what RBs I may be able to target in later rounds. So since I was looking at it for my 12 team non-ppr league, I just drew lines after 12, 24, 36, 48, etc.

I like to have a plan, but also like to be prepared if I have to deviate from that plan. So I may plan (hypothetically) to have 2 RBs on my team through 4 rounds. But if it turns out due to certain guys falling that I only have 1 RB, I wanted to see who I may be able to target in rounds 5 and on.

According to the most recent ADP list for non-ppr leagues on the site, there are just some players that stick out as "no way will they be there by then."

For instance, among the RBs, the following should be available in the # next to their name:

(Again, this is for a 12 teamer.)

Best - 5th

Spiller - 6th

Bradshaw - 7th

Foster - 9th

So my questions are:

a) who else seems "off" to you?

b) do the ADP lists pull from June and July? I know the early ADP lists in July had to pull from only June & July obviously. But it seems to me, now that we are fast approaching the end of August, the ADP lists should only pull from recent mocks and real drafts.

For instance, Spiller was probably an ADP of 7th/8th due to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. But with CJ getting first shot now due to recent injuries to both Jackson and Lynch - his ADP seems like a recent 5th round. I suppose when you combine the recent 5th with older 7ths, you get this revised 6th. But the recent stuff should be weighted greater.

Same idea with Foster. I don't think in a 12 teamer you can get him in the 9th with Tate now hurt.

My point is: you can't always just say, "He was going in the 7th on average out of 100 drafts in June & July, but he has been going in the 5th on average out of 100 drafts in the last 2 weeks (all August) - so we'll safely/mathematically list him as 6th rounder on average." That actually isn't accurate, even though strictly by the numbers it is.

c) so are there more recent/updated/weighted ADP lists?

Does what I am saying make sense here? If I find myself with 1 qb, 1 rb, and 2 wrs due to who was available, I'd like to know who "should" be available in the 5th, 6th, and on - so I can make up for only 1 RB early, by grabbing several later ones. But given this ADP list - if it were truly accurate - it makes me want to wait on RB if I can get Best in the 5th, Spiller in the 6th, Bradshaw in the 7th, and Foster in the 9th.

Babbling over.

 

[cjack]

Seems like a valid concern. It'll be interesting to hear from those that know the inner workings of the ADP process.

 

[KCC]

I wouldn't use any ADP list that 1) doesn't have current drafts included in their figures (magazine ADP lists are useless), and 2) doesn't include the earliest pick in which the player was selected and the standard deviation of the ADP figure (most websites include these now, but that wasn't always the case.) Then you can decide how much you really want a player relative to his ADP number. If it's a guy who I really think has a shot at putting up huge numbers, I'll take him one round before his earliest pick on the ADP sheet. However, don't go crazy with that approach - it should apply to only one or two players, otherwise you're completely tossing out any value provided by the ADP sheet in the first place.

 

[LawFitz]

use fantasyfootballcalculator.com

If you think a particular player seems off, check his personal graph to see if he's trending up or down in recent mocks.

 

[sportsphysio]

I think that your feelings are becoming more widely accepted. To me, too much emphasis was beginning to be placed on "value." What good is value if you aren't getting the players that you feel will help you win the league? Is it better to risk missing out on the guy you want and instead select the guy that mock drafts say you should take (keeping in mind that mocks aren't always a good indicator of real drafts)?

I think with the NFL being a RBBC league now, it is much harder to determine what a player's "value" is, and as the season gets closer, I think many of those RBs that are thought to be "late round value picks" will be long gone by the time their ADP approaches. I'd rather select some of those guys a bit earlier than "expected" at at time when they should live up to their draft position vs. having to take guys that may not live up to it.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Here is MFL 12 team non-ppr since AUg 15. I don't knoi what FBG uses, bu this is only actual drafts. A couple are the same rounds you mentioned; a couple a round or two earlier.

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2010/a...TIME=1281844800

 

[KCC]

I think that your feelings are becoming more widely accepted. To me, too much emphasis was beginning to be placed on "value." What good is value if you aren't getting the players that you feel will help you win the league? Is it better to risk missing out on the guy you want and instead select the guy that mock drafts say you should take (keeping in mind that mocks aren't always a good indicator of real drafts)?I think with the NFL being a RBBC league now, it is much harder to determine what a player's "value" is, and as the season gets closer, I think many of those RBs that are thought to be "late round value picks" will be long gone by the time their ADP approaches. I'd rather select some of those guys a bit earlier than "expected" at at time when they should live up to their draft position vs. having to take guys that may not live up to it.

ADP has nothing to do with the fantasy points each player will produce. ADP is only about the typical market price you have to pay (by spending a draft pick) in order to secure the player you want. The difference between the ADP and the fantasy point production is the real measure of "value".

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I'm realizing that it all depends on what ADP list one looks at.

12 team ADP...

FBG has A.Foster listed 9th round.

MyFantasyLeague has A.Foster listed 7th round.

FantasyFootballCalulcator has A.Foster listed 6th round.

 

[Northbound Train]

I've noticed players all over the place as well btwn FBG, MDC + FFC...

Is there any one place where those 3 are combined

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Any FBG staff know what the FBG ADP lists are based upon? Are they from the very first draft found back in June through the present?

Will FBG be putting out anything representing a more recent (weighted to reflect August drafts more than June/July draft) list?

Thanks!