ADP (1 Viewer)

[tytyty]

So, I am sitting at work on a site that has a mock draft..... I draft my first pick all excited that I'm the boss and I can really get a good grasp on my upcoming drafts and not be interrupted while my office door is closed... BAM I get a knock on the door, "it's an emergency", so I run out not to be seen at that draft again..

My point...

Whether it be AntSport, Extreme, this new Calculator place or whatever.... Most people go wih their first 6 rounds TOPS. Of course there are the die-hards but how can ADP really be used as a solid tool when the ole Robot is picking a majority of the thousands of Mocks out there.

Explain the trust you have in these since there is so much emphasis for the draft based on these (including FBG'S DD, ADP Up To Date, etc.) placements.

I know that my draft will not go exactly like the most thoughtful Mock there is but, Man I am losing faith!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mario Kart]

ADP comes into play because not all fantasy players use FBG's. Other sites compile similar stats because other people are only exclusive to that site. Simply put, using ADP allows a much broader based knowledge of what people "tend to draft like" instead of only using FBG's as their barometer.

Dont know if that is what you want to hear but that is the use of it.

 

[renesauz]

I saw a football draft guide today that had Fitzgerald as the #1 reciever and Boldin as the #4. While that is possible, I can't see it as anywhere near likely.

Yet, at least one guy in my draft will be using that book as one of his primary surces of information. Unless you want to look at every site, and every guide out there (and there are hundreds now), ADP is the next bext thing to look at.

 

[Capt Hook]

I agree that some of the data is poor, but it is better than nothing.....

BUT not as good as having your own data. You should find a group of serious drafters that want to practice for the same format and run multiple drafts and that will be much better information. There are some sites where you can check the history of the drafters so you don't get people drafting five rounds and then going to lunch and just leaving the draft to the computer.

 

[pinequick]

"Some data is better than no data, two times out of three."

 

[Spartans Rule]

Antsports does not include computer selections in its ADP. Granted, the computer picks still have an effect on human picks, but excluding them definitely helps.

 

[KCC]

"Some data is better than no data, two times out of three."

And I'll add:

"All models are wrong, some models are useful." - George Box

Is the data from these sites flawed? Absolutely. Does that completely invalidate using that data as a tool in your draft? Absolutely not.

 

[tomarken]

In my personal draft stratefy, I tend to abandon ADP about halfway through the draft anyway. It is extremely useful to make sure that you get good value for the studs and your #2's and other starters, etc. However there comes a point in the draft where I start drafting needs such as handcuffs, sleepers, etc.

At that later point in the draft I am not so concerned with a player's ADP - first of all these types of players' draft position probably varies greatly from one draft to the next, so the ADP is a lot less accurate later in the draft than it is at the top of the draft.

Plus, I'm not afraid to "overpay" a little for a guy I need or really want later in the draft. I mean, I'm not going to lose any sleep if I use my 11th rounder on my stud RB's backup who has an ADP in the 13th. I'd rather take him a little too "early" than miss out completely.

I also always wait until the end of the draft for a K and DST, so ADP is basically useless for those positions, I'm just going to take whoever falls to me in the last few rounds anyway.

For those reasons I think ADP suit my purposes extremely well, even if you suspect it's only really accurate for the first half of a draft.

 

[mightymorse]

Another thing about ADP at Antsports -- it's somewhat self-perpetuating. The interface brings the next players expected to be drafted (based on ADP) to the top of the draft list. My point is that even if the computer doesn't pick, there's a not-so-subtle influence to take the next player in ADP order. Why don't you just TELL me who to pick?

 

[tytyty]

Another thing about ADP at Antsports -- it's somewhat self-perpetuating. The interface brings the next players expected to be drafted (based on ADP) to the top of the draft list. My point is that even if the computer doesn't pick, there's a not-so-subtle influence to take the next player in ADP order. Why don't you just TELL me who to pick?

Concur. Does anyone know the way FBG compiles the ADP? Different sites, how many, etc...

 

[KCC]

In my personal draft stratefy, I tend to abandon ADP about halfway through the draft anyway. It is extremely useful to make sure that you get good value for the studs and your #2's and other starters, etc. However there comes a point in the draft where I start drafting needs such as handcuffs, sleepers, etc.

At that later point in the draft I am not so concerned with a player's ADP - first of all these types of players' draft position probably varies greatly from one draft to the next, so the ADP is a lot less accurate later in the draft than it is at the top of the draft.

Plus, I'm not afraid to "overpay" a little for a guy I need or really want later in the draft. I mean, I'm not going to lose any sleep if I use my 11th rounder on my stud RB's backup who has an ADP in the 13th. I'd rather take him a little too "early" than miss out completely.

I also always wait until the end of the draft for a K and DST, so ADP is basically useless for those positions, I'm just going to take whoever falls to me in the last few rounds anyway.

For those reasons I think ADP suit my purposes extremely well, even if you suspect it's only really accurate for the first half of a draft.

Very

 

[Verbal Kint]

Another thing to examine is how your leaguemates drafting tendancies deviate from the general population. Are there homers in your league that will draft local players higher than normal?

How sophisticated are your leaguemates? Where do they get their information? Are they using a magazine cheatsheet that was printed in July, or are the FBGers?

 

[ookook]

I think ADP is most useful for evaluating the odds that I might be able to wait a round to draft a player I am targetting.

I look at Antsports serious mocks from past 7 days. I think that computer selections have no role in these.

I check this before pretty much every pick.

 

[lebowski]

MFL ADP's are based on actual drafts.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

MFL ADP's are based on actual drafts.

espn has this, too. i think the problem with using adp for mocks is that a lot of peolpe use it to try dout ifferent strategies -- so it is not necessarily what they would actually do. i also think adp is not so useful this time of year unless you are drafting now. a few weeks from now a lot more will be known about position battles and injuries that could have a major effect on rankings

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Another thing about ADP at Antsports -- it's somewhat self-perpetuating. The interface brings the next players expected to be drafted (based on ADP) to the top of the draft list. My point is that even if the computer doesn't pick, there's a not-so-subtle influence to take the next player in ADP order. Why don't you just TELL me who to pick?

ADP is available during the actual draft also so the influence is consistent.

 

[David Dodds]

Here is the algorithm we use.

4 columns:

- Last data (as compiled by us)

- My Fantasy league (last two weeks)

- Antsports (last 2 weeks)

- Xpert Sports (last 2 weeks)

1. If a player has only one entry (between the four sorces), he is removed from consideration.

2. Players out (retired, IR are removed).

3. Average data with the holes intact.

4. Sort each column based on that column and average data. I do this to fill in holes so all players have 4 sets of data. Example: one data set does not rank Reggie Williams, he will now get a number based on the average data (at the end of the sites normal rankings).

5. Once every player has 4 sets of data, I calculate the following:

.25*min+.50*average+.25*max

6. This calculation becomes the number I sort to for overall rank.

I am sure this is not a perfect system, but I generally believe it leads to a more accurate valuation of average draft position than any of the sites.

 

[rock753]

So, I am sitting at work on a site that has a mock draft..... I draft my first pick all excited that I'm the boss and I can really get a good grasp on my upcoming drafts and not be interrupted while my office door is closed... BAM I get a knock on the door, "it's an emergency", so I run out not to be seen at that draft again..

My point...

Whether it be AntSport, Extreme, this new Calculator place or whatever.... Most people go wih their first 6 rounds TOPS. Of course there are the die-hards but how can ADP really be used as a solid tool when the ole Robot is picking a majority of the thousands of Mocks out there.

Explain the trust you have in these since there is so much emphasis for the draft based on these (including FBG'S DD, ADP Up To Date, etc.) placements.

I know that my draft will not go exactly like the most thoughtful Mock there is but, Man I am losing faith!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wow...you need to try a draftmaster or survivor league at xpert sports The fact that both of these league score during the year keep people interested. The slow 12 team draft usually finish with 3 or less on computer control, pluse there are usualyy 7-12 live drafts run dalily that have very few computer selections. Check it out, tell em' rock sent ya!

 

[tytyty]

Here is the algorithm we use.

4 columns:

- Last data (as compiled by us)

- My Fantasy league (last two weeks)

- Antsports (last 2 weeks)

- Xpert Sports (last 2 weeks)

1. If a player has only one entry (between the four sorces), he is removed from consideration.

2. Players out (retired, IR are removed).

3. Average data with the holes intact.

4. Sort each column based on that column and average data. I do this to fill in holes so all players have 4 sets of data. Example: one data set does not rank Reggie Williams, he will now get a number based on the average data (at the end of the sites normal rankings).

5. Once every player has 4 sets of data, I calculate the following:

.25*min+.50*average+.25*max

6. This calculation becomes the number I sort to for overall rank.

I am sure this is not a perfect system, but I generally believe it leads to a more accurate valuation of average draft position than any of the sites.

No clue what you just said but sounds good to me!! Just didn't know if it was raw or there was good thought behind it. Thanks!

 

[lost_weekend]

Where is a link to this site's ADP rankings? (I mean current ones...)