MCguidance
Footballguy
fair enough...i like your points...no need to get snipity, i like coming on here and learning so thanks for the inputYou're not getting it. He was NOT on pace for 288 carries because the numbers you extrapolated to get that figure are not based on the current situation (them splitting time). As you posted this paragraph in two places, thus will I post my reply in two to help explain:I am talking about over a season, and the chance of injury increased carries bring, as well as the increased likelihood of an injury resulting the follow year or years.Your stats are off. He was the primary ball carrier in the first four games while CT was out. Check the game logs.I posted this before, but in another thread, since we can never keep them simple:As an outsider and someone who did not have the forsight or drafting skills to nab this guy, I think this could be bad (but likely this will be great) for AP to get more carries. I have to look at the workload for stud RBs, and see the types like Jamal Anderson, Dickerson, SJax, who were (and in Sjax's case - may never be - though this is way to early to tell, so at this point it is merely conjecture) the same again. I see that AP is on pace for 288 carries this year. At his 6+ YPC, this is more than enough to be a stud RB. But if you add another 8 carries (ave 5-10 per game) to this total, it quickly jumps to 288 + 64 = 352 total carries. Is this not a lot of carries? Maybe I am wrong, and this is still not high enough for him to be hurt in the long run, but it definitely increases the likelihood. Also, given AP's injury history (again at this point seems to be moot, but worth mentioning) he is again increasing the likelihood he may get injury during the season. So while the former part of my hypothesis my not apply to this current FF season (as those career threatening injuries are generally the year or so after the high workload) the latter part does. Remember, he is just a kid, he will never have gone through anything as rigorous as this next half of the season. Therefore, if I was an AP owner, I would cheer, but maybe just be a bit cautious as to what this increased workload and starter status brings. Just my thoughts..Peterson was not on pace for 288 carries if he were to keep getting the same workload he has compared with Chester. The number is only that high because Chester missed 3 of the 6 weeks we have to work with. Adding another 8 carries to AD's workload will help get him BACK to that 288 carry number, which he for all intents and purposes was NOT actually on pace to get given the current workload split when Chester is healthy.When both have been healthy, AD has carried 12, 20, and 12 times. The 20 came in a game where the team had 42 carries, which is unlikely to happen again. If AD and Chester were to continue splitting carries at the rate they have been the last 3 weeks AD would have fallen monumentally short of 288 carries. So again, this news only helps get him back to that number, not way over it like you are suggesting.Put simply, if we're talking 5-8 additional carries, we're talking 5-8 additional carries on top of the 12 per game he was getting when splitting time with Chester, not 5-8 additional carries on top of the 23 he was getting when Chester was out injured.