Gawain
Footballguy
Figured it would be nice to try to take a look to guys to add now to help those of us in 2QB leagues out for 2013. The Shark Pool is filled with debate about Brady v. Brees and Luck v. Griffin, but for those of us in leagues that start 20-32 QB's a week, we know that the quarterback position doesn't just disappear after Roethlisberger. 2QB leagues also place more emphasis on current production over upside, something that is a bigger factor in a 1 QB dynasty.
AFC East:
Buffalo: Fitzpatrick received a tremendous extension (through 2017) for a guy that has been a career backup last year. However, a closer look shows this marriage isn't as close as one might believe. The Bills have already shelled out over half of the guaranteed money of the contract and the remaining 9 million comes in the form of declining roster bonuses. If Fitzgerald doesn't bounce back strong, it would not surprise me to see the Bills look elsewhere for quarterback help. I do not believe in Thigpen or Young, though Young might not be a bad #2 QB if he does see action. His rushing alone gave him value with the Titans. If Fitz struggles to the point where Young sees playing time, I fully expect the Bills to draft QB in 2013.
Outlook: Fitzpatrick is a #2 QB, while depending on roster sizes Young may carry some value if Fitz is injured. I don't see Young as anything more than a stopgap and believe Fitzgerald would need to play horridly, not merely poorly, before an inseason switch would be made.
Miami: The Ryan Tannehill show, the only question remaining is will he start the season, or will Moore get a few starts until the rookie is ready. I am a firm believer that the only part Garrard plays in a perfect draft is if he remains in the FA pool. Draft date impacts the Miami QBs more than most other teams, as there is some hope that Moore will start the season. If he performs as well or better than last year, he may be able to keep the rookie on the bench. However, if Tannehill has more performances like he did in the Dolphins first preseason game, Moore stands to become an after thought.
Outlook: if you are drafting in the next week or so, you need to consider Moore. If Tannehill continues to impress Moore will quickly be relegated to QB 2 status on the Phins. I believe the Dolphins starter will finish around QB #25, but the potential appears to be there with Tannehill to put together a promising NFL career.
New England: Brady is what he is and the only way any other NE QB carries value is if Brady gets injured. Brian Hoyer is a FA after this year and has played fairly well in very sparse action. Hoyer may be a player to keep an eye on, ala Matt Flynn, but I do not see the demand being there for a 6-2 undrafted FA quarterback. he may move onto another team as a backup, but best case scenario for me is a Charlie Whitehurst situation. Ryan Mallett is also intriguing. The Patriots considered him the best QB in the 2011 class and Brady is not getting any younger. Mallett is under contract until 2015 though, so sitting on him is a multi-year process. Mallett has yet to appear in an NFL game and some concern has to be shown if he can't beat out Hoyer for QB 2 this year.
Outlook: Brady is high-end QB1. I do not see Hoyer performing at all this year. Even if Brady was injured, I believe the team would go with Mallett (for a multi-game injury) to see if there is future QB 1 potential there. Mallett has received mixed reports from training camp, with some labeling him a tremendous disappointment, while others have claimed he looked very good. There are worse fliers if you have a roster spot to burn for three years.
New York Jets: Sanchez is due a tremendous amount of money after the 2012 season, but if I parsed the contract correctly, only 4 million appears to be guaranteed. The Jets could part ways with him fairly painlessly. If Sanchez starts the entire season he has shown to be a decent/good #2 QB. For his ADP, there are worse options. Tebow waits in the wings and the major concern isn't that Tebow starts a few games, it is that Tebow starts a few series per game. Tebow comes fairly cheap as a backup, but if he receives two series a game, Sanchez's value takes a nosedive. I don't see Greg McElroy doing much of anything in the league and his comments at the end of last season soured several Jets and did nothing to build his status as a possible team leader.
Outlook: I would like Sanchez as a QB2 if the threat of losing series to Tebow didn't exist. As it stands now, I would much prefer to roster Tebow as a QB4 and hope he either assumes the role or sees enough action to provide some value as a possible bye-week starter with the guarantee of scoring a few points. Not having to take that 0 at the second QB spot is a big help.
AFC North
Baltimore: Flacco regressed a touch last year, but he remains a steady #2 QB that has shown no propensity towards injuries. His ADP is driven down by shiny new toys and his unspectacular, but steady numbers. Taking Flacco as a QB2 after loading up on RBs and WRs is not the worst idea. His contract is up after 2012 and the two sides still appear far apart in valuation. There is a slight threat that he leaves after this year, but he would latch onto another team as an uncontested starter. There is a QB2 battle on the Raves between Tyrod Taylor and Curtis Painter. Painter probably moved slightly ahead after preseason game #1 and the Baltimore beat writers tend to think that Painter will end up as QB2 when all is said and done. There is a slight hope that a QB emerges for 2013, based on the inability of Flacco and the Ravens to come to a contract agreement.
Outlook: I believe that Flacco and the Ravens will come to some agreement. I like Flacco as a plug-and-play QB2 for this year and for 2013. Taylor and Painter do not show much potential to ever amount to more than a spot starter, though Painter is a FA after this year and if he continues to impress may latch onto a backup role in 2013. Taylor is probably not gifted physically enough to ever be more than a career backup.
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton is firmly entrenched as the starter and is under contract until 2014. If he continues to improve, I would expect the Bengals to extend him after the 2012 season. Gradkowski has received starter reps during his career and never shown an ability to be more than a second string quarterback. On paper, the Bengals have improved their WR corps and should still have a fair rushing game. I don't think that Dalton will win many games for a fantasy team this year, but he has potential, a star WR and job stability. There would be worse choices to start at QB2. Zac Robinson was let go in the last round of cuts in 2011 and I believe a similar fate is in store for him this year.
Outlook: Take the Bengals at face-value at the QB position for the next couple years. Dalton is under contract through 2014, while Gradkowski is a FA after 2012. I have zero faith that Gradkowski can go elsewhere and start. I also don't believe that whomever the Bengals bring in as a backup in 2013 will have any shot of starting outside of injury.
Cleveland: Weeden is named the 2012 starter and should get a fairly long tryout, regardless of performance. Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace are known quantities. i don't think that Weeden will take the NFL by storm and would feel uncomfortable relying on him as a starter. McCoy is a FA after 2013 and there are rumors he wants to be traded after the naming of Weeden as a starter, though McCoy has not gone public with any demands. Major problem for McCoy is I do not believe he has the talent to be a worthwhile option for any other NFL team. Wallace is projected to end up with the #2 job, with McCoy either traded or possibly cut according to Cleveland reporters. I have always had a soft spot for Seneca Wallace and if he ends up starting part of the season, he carries some value because of his rushing ability and his familiarity with the WCO. I think Weeden needs to have a major implosion for this to occur though.
Outlook: I wouldn't want to rely on any Cleveland QB for 2012, though am interested to see how Weeden looks during the preseason as a possible QB3 with promise. I can't fathom McCoy being given another starting job, while Wallace is on the wrong side of 30 and only carries value in case of a Weeden disaster or injury.
Pittsburgh: One of the easiest teams to judge for 2013. Roethlisberger will continue to be a low end QB1, high end QB2 for 2012 and 2013. Leftwich returns as QB2 after his 2011 injury, yet is a FA after the 2012 season. Charlie Batch continues to draw an NFL paycheck at 37, yet is also a FA after 2012. Ben is now 30, but I expect him to still have a few more productive years in him. I will be watching the 2013 draft with interest to see if the Steelers add a QB either for strict backup duty, or with an eye towards the future, ala NE and Mallett.
Outlook: Ben makes a much better QB2 than QB1, but can see how a team loaded at other positions would be fine with him. Ben's production in 2013 shouldn't drop off either, though Mike Wallace's spectre looms over the Steelers at the moment. If Ben is injured, Leftwich/Batch is a capable replacement, both for the Steelers and for fantasy, but there is still uncertainty as to which would fill the role.
AFC South:
Houston: Schaub is a FA after 2012 and if the Texans had a promising young QB on their roster I wouldn't be surprised if Schaub walked, especially if he is injured again. However, TJ Yates and John Beck have very little promise. Schaub just turned 31, so his time is growing shorter, but if he performs as he did in 2010, the Texans likely extend him. Yates is signed through 2014, but after his 3 int performance in the 2011 playoffs, he doesn't have a lead on the starting job. Beck has failed to ever perform as an NFL starter. The Texans look to finish first in the AFC South in 2012, so any pick they have for the 2013 draft probably wont be high enough for them to draft a franchise quarterback. I believe the most likely scenario is that Schaub comes back, but there is a distinct possibility there is a new signal caller under center in 2013.
Outlook: Schaub should be a solid #2 QB in 2012. His future outlook is a little murkier because of his contract and injury status. I do not think that any other QB on the Texans roster is of a starting caliber, but someone with an affinity for Yates may look to add him. Any FA or rookie joining the Texans has to be given a close look with a decent passing attack and a great RB out of the backfield in Foster.
Indianapolis: Luck is probably a #2 QB for 2012, but has to be viewed as a potential #1 moving forward into 2013 and beyond. The Colts QB cupboard is bare behind Luck, with Drew Stanton the only other QB of note. Stanton is only under contract through 2012, but I don't see him moving onto any other position besides backup. Harnish and Vittatoe have practice squad written all over them. Luck is the shining star here, I would be happy to have him moving forward.
Outlook: Luck is one of the best "can't miss" prospects in a long time. He could solidify a #1 QB spot for the next 10 years. I have no hope that Stanton ever progresses beyond backup/mop up duties. Highly unlikely any ther fantasy quarterbacks appear from the Colts roster.
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert looks to improve from his 2011 season and hold off Chad Henne. Preseason game #1 was a positive first step for Gabbert. I am not convinced that Gabbert has the tools to be a long-time starting quarterback in this league, but when the only other option is Henne, stiff competition isn't expected. Having said that, Henne has been a starter in the league before and there must be some consideration that if Gabbert struggles, Henne probably can fill in as well as Gabbert performs. I used to have some faith in Jordan Palmer developing into an adequate stopgap. That faith has been exorcised out of me by now.
Outlook: I wouldn't want to rely on a Jacksonville quarterback as anything more than a bye week option this year, regardless of the starter, and depending on interception penalties, might prefer the 0. Jax presents an odd situation where the younger QB with presumable upside doesn't seem to be valued much higher than the older, already failed, Henne. Some QBs show improvement out of nowhere, so i would hesitate to write off Gabbert totally, but I would not go out of my way to draft him. As for 2013, I think that Gabbert would have 2013 as a sink or swim year. I would draft Gabbert and be fairly confident he would see a significant number of snaps in 2013.
Tennessee: Hasselbeck is slated to start the first preseason game, but Locker carries the greatest value for this year and beyond. Much like last year, even if Hasselbeck begins the season under center, it seems to be fairly obvious that Locker will receive several games worth of starts. I believe the team would like to see Locker snatch the starting opportunity from Hasselbeck during the preseason. I enjoyed seeing Locker at the end of 2011, and though his comp % was low, I believe Locker can perform as a QB2 this year and has low-end QB1 potential moving forward. Rusty Smith may be the future backup after Hasselbeck inevitably retires.
Outlook: I'd pass on Hasselbeck as anything but a QB5, seeing no real upside, even if he finagles a start or two this year. I believe Locker should carry a high to mid QB2 price. Locker is keyed into at least a three year hold on the starting job and shows promise of being the future Ten. starter for a decade. Depending on draft date, I would be happy to pay a premium for Locker, even if he hasn't been announced as the starter for 2012.
AFC West
Denver: Peyton should still be in Denver for 2013 as long as he stays healthy. Manning's guaranteed money runs out after 2014, so I believe Peyton will hold the job until then, as long as his neck remains sound. Osweiler is signed through 2015 and is another attractive option if you can afford to burn a roster spot for a couple years. I don't root for injuries, but it can't be ignored that Manning was thought to be close to retirement because of his neck injuries. While I don't think that Osweiler would be ready to play in 2012, a full year of study under Manning may put Osweiler in a position where he could contribute in 2013 if the neck injury ever flares up. Caleb Hanie is a veteran presence for 2012 and would likely be called on to play if Manning couldn't go the first 8 games of 2012.
Outlook: Knock on wood, Peyton should give a team three solid years (12-14). He's still a QB1 and it is dangerous to plan for more than 3 years out, even in dynasty. He comes at a value because of his age and because he took 2011 off, but if he performs at 90% of his 2010 self, he is a great value after 10 QB's are off the board. Backing Manning up with Osweiler should come fairly cheaply. I am going to try to snag Osweiler, both because of uncertainty of Manning's ability to play 16 games and because I think that he holds very good value in 2015, if not sooner. Hanie had his starter's audition in Chicago and failed. I place almost no value on him, unless Manning sees a reoccurrence of injury in the first 8 games.
Kansas City: Cassel is a modest sleeper in my opinion. While he doesn't have the upside folks in 1QB leagues are looking for, in 2QB leagues I think he sneaks in as a solid #2. Early training reports have been glowing, he has two great receiving backs in Charles and Hillis, Baldwin has another year in under his belt and Moeki is back. At only 30, I look at Cassel as a QB that can get you high to mid #2 QB production for the next few years at a QB 2/3 price right now. Stanzi and Quinn are locked into a battle for the #2 spot and Stanzi's failure to separate himself from Quinn only cools me more on him. I believe Cassel is the only Chiefs QB that will carry value forward from 2012.
Outlook: Cassel is a sneaky QB2 with upside. He should still be productive in 2013 and beyond. I don't see Quinn as challenging for a starting role again and think that Stanzi may not have much of a future in the NFL. The praise Stanzi drew in OTA's seems to have all but evaporated.
Oakland: It's tough for me to believe Carson Palmer is only 32, it feels like he's been in the league for as long as Peyton Manning. Palmer has guaranteed money due in 2013, so it is highly likely that he will be with the Raiders for the 2013 season. With better receivers, Palmer could be a low-end QB 1 for the next few years, but I would feel much safer with him as a #2. As a #2 though, Palmer should still have at least 3 good years left, providing a fair amount of stability for the Raiders. Though receiving praise from the Texans, Leinart was brought to the Raiders as a backup. Though I once believed in him, I cannot envision Leinart receiving another opportunity to start, even if something happened to Palmer. If Palmer faltered, I expect the Raiders to see what the have in Pryor instead. Pryor is under contract through the 2014 season and would be an interesting project QB to roster. I believe it would take an injury to Palmer to give Pryor a shot, but Palmer hasn't been Iron Man and I expect Pryor to put up Vince Young numbers as a worst case scenario and feel he could be a poor man's Newton if lightning strikes.
Outlook: Palmer should be the starter in Oakland for at least the next three years, which doesn't seem to give Pryor much of an opportunity. If I had a development or taxi squad slot open, I might look to add him though, provided I could wait until 2014 for a return on my investment. I don't expect Leinart to ever carry value again.
San Diego: Rivers is signed through 2015 and I fully expect him to sign an extension after 13 or 14. A solid QB1 for the next several years, I believe that Rivers is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the game right now. I would be happy to take him and not have to worry about my first quarterback for many years. Whitehurst watched one of the best opportunities a backup has had in the past few years all but evaporate. Failing to beat out Tavaris Jackson is a pretty big strike against you and I am unable to see a scenario where Whitehurst gets another such opportunity. The only way I believe Whitehurst sees the field would be due to a Rivers' injury. Jarrett Lee led all preseason week 1 passers, but at best he is headed for the practice squad.
Outlook: Rivers is the only QB of value here. If I drafted Rivers, I would be tempted to pick up Whitehurst late for backup purposes. While I don't think Whitehurst will receive another starting opportunity, he could be a capable starter in San Diego if Rivers went down for an extended period of time. For all intents and purposes, Kevin O'Connell can be ignored (he was a hot commodity only 4 years ago).
Besides the AFC quarterbacks with obvious value, the QBs I am most interested in for 2QB dynasty/keeper leagues are:
Tannehill-just for potential growth into a #1 QB if the Phins can find receiving talent in the next three years.
Mallett-if I can afford to roster a QB for 3 years before seeing some possible return.
Tim Tebow-if he gets an opportunity to start, we know that he can compile points and there may be a fire under Rex Ryan if Sanchez struggles.
Gabbert-mainly because he is an after thought this year and should see significant playing time both this year and in 2013 to quickly determine his future value.
Locker-though he carries an ADP of 23 on FFC, I value him much closer to QB 15, both for his long-term promise and for his scoring potential in 2012.
Osweiler-as a long term development project and in case Peyton's neck injury happens to flare up again.
Cassel-with an ADP of 27 on FFC, I believe he is at least 7 spots too low for 2 QB leagues. He should be a consistent, if unflashy second quarterback.
Pryor-another player I might add to look if I could afford a developmental player for the next two years.
Will get to the NFC shortly.
AFC East:
Buffalo: Fitzpatrick received a tremendous extension (through 2017) for a guy that has been a career backup last year. However, a closer look shows this marriage isn't as close as one might believe. The Bills have already shelled out over half of the guaranteed money of the contract and the remaining 9 million comes in the form of declining roster bonuses. If Fitzgerald doesn't bounce back strong, it would not surprise me to see the Bills look elsewhere for quarterback help. I do not believe in Thigpen or Young, though Young might not be a bad #2 QB if he does see action. His rushing alone gave him value with the Titans. If Fitz struggles to the point where Young sees playing time, I fully expect the Bills to draft QB in 2013.
Outlook: Fitzpatrick is a #2 QB, while depending on roster sizes Young may carry some value if Fitz is injured. I don't see Young as anything more than a stopgap and believe Fitzgerald would need to play horridly, not merely poorly, before an inseason switch would be made.
Miami: The Ryan Tannehill show, the only question remaining is will he start the season, or will Moore get a few starts until the rookie is ready. I am a firm believer that the only part Garrard plays in a perfect draft is if he remains in the FA pool. Draft date impacts the Miami QBs more than most other teams, as there is some hope that Moore will start the season. If he performs as well or better than last year, he may be able to keep the rookie on the bench. However, if Tannehill has more performances like he did in the Dolphins first preseason game, Moore stands to become an after thought.
Outlook: if you are drafting in the next week or so, you need to consider Moore. If Tannehill continues to impress Moore will quickly be relegated to QB 2 status on the Phins. I believe the Dolphins starter will finish around QB #25, but the potential appears to be there with Tannehill to put together a promising NFL career.
New England: Brady is what he is and the only way any other NE QB carries value is if Brady gets injured. Brian Hoyer is a FA after this year and has played fairly well in very sparse action. Hoyer may be a player to keep an eye on, ala Matt Flynn, but I do not see the demand being there for a 6-2 undrafted FA quarterback. he may move onto another team as a backup, but best case scenario for me is a Charlie Whitehurst situation. Ryan Mallett is also intriguing. The Patriots considered him the best QB in the 2011 class and Brady is not getting any younger. Mallett is under contract until 2015 though, so sitting on him is a multi-year process. Mallett has yet to appear in an NFL game and some concern has to be shown if he can't beat out Hoyer for QB 2 this year.
Outlook: Brady is high-end QB1. I do not see Hoyer performing at all this year. Even if Brady was injured, I believe the team would go with Mallett (for a multi-game injury) to see if there is future QB 1 potential there. Mallett has received mixed reports from training camp, with some labeling him a tremendous disappointment, while others have claimed he looked very good. There are worse fliers if you have a roster spot to burn for three years.
New York Jets: Sanchez is due a tremendous amount of money after the 2012 season, but if I parsed the contract correctly, only 4 million appears to be guaranteed. The Jets could part ways with him fairly painlessly. If Sanchez starts the entire season he has shown to be a decent/good #2 QB. For his ADP, there are worse options. Tebow waits in the wings and the major concern isn't that Tebow starts a few games, it is that Tebow starts a few series per game. Tebow comes fairly cheap as a backup, but if he receives two series a game, Sanchez's value takes a nosedive. I don't see Greg McElroy doing much of anything in the league and his comments at the end of last season soured several Jets and did nothing to build his status as a possible team leader.
Outlook: I would like Sanchez as a QB2 if the threat of losing series to Tebow didn't exist. As it stands now, I would much prefer to roster Tebow as a QB4 and hope he either assumes the role or sees enough action to provide some value as a possible bye-week starter with the guarantee of scoring a few points. Not having to take that 0 at the second QB spot is a big help.
AFC North
Baltimore: Flacco regressed a touch last year, but he remains a steady #2 QB that has shown no propensity towards injuries. His ADP is driven down by shiny new toys and his unspectacular, but steady numbers. Taking Flacco as a QB2 after loading up on RBs and WRs is not the worst idea. His contract is up after 2012 and the two sides still appear far apart in valuation. There is a slight threat that he leaves after this year, but he would latch onto another team as an uncontested starter. There is a QB2 battle on the Raves between Tyrod Taylor and Curtis Painter. Painter probably moved slightly ahead after preseason game #1 and the Baltimore beat writers tend to think that Painter will end up as QB2 when all is said and done. There is a slight hope that a QB emerges for 2013, based on the inability of Flacco and the Ravens to come to a contract agreement.
Outlook: I believe that Flacco and the Ravens will come to some agreement. I like Flacco as a plug-and-play QB2 for this year and for 2013. Taylor and Painter do not show much potential to ever amount to more than a spot starter, though Painter is a FA after this year and if he continues to impress may latch onto a backup role in 2013. Taylor is probably not gifted physically enough to ever be more than a career backup.
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton is firmly entrenched as the starter and is under contract until 2014. If he continues to improve, I would expect the Bengals to extend him after the 2012 season. Gradkowski has received starter reps during his career and never shown an ability to be more than a second string quarterback. On paper, the Bengals have improved their WR corps and should still have a fair rushing game. I don't think that Dalton will win many games for a fantasy team this year, but he has potential, a star WR and job stability. There would be worse choices to start at QB2. Zac Robinson was let go in the last round of cuts in 2011 and I believe a similar fate is in store for him this year.
Outlook: Take the Bengals at face-value at the QB position for the next couple years. Dalton is under contract through 2014, while Gradkowski is a FA after 2012. I have zero faith that Gradkowski can go elsewhere and start. I also don't believe that whomever the Bengals bring in as a backup in 2013 will have any shot of starting outside of injury.
Cleveland: Weeden is named the 2012 starter and should get a fairly long tryout, regardless of performance. Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace are known quantities. i don't think that Weeden will take the NFL by storm and would feel uncomfortable relying on him as a starter. McCoy is a FA after 2013 and there are rumors he wants to be traded after the naming of Weeden as a starter, though McCoy has not gone public with any demands. Major problem for McCoy is I do not believe he has the talent to be a worthwhile option for any other NFL team. Wallace is projected to end up with the #2 job, with McCoy either traded or possibly cut according to Cleveland reporters. I have always had a soft spot for Seneca Wallace and if he ends up starting part of the season, he carries some value because of his rushing ability and his familiarity with the WCO. I think Weeden needs to have a major implosion for this to occur though.
Outlook: I wouldn't want to rely on any Cleveland QB for 2012, though am interested to see how Weeden looks during the preseason as a possible QB3 with promise. I can't fathom McCoy being given another starting job, while Wallace is on the wrong side of 30 and only carries value in case of a Weeden disaster or injury.
Pittsburgh: One of the easiest teams to judge for 2013. Roethlisberger will continue to be a low end QB1, high end QB2 for 2012 and 2013. Leftwich returns as QB2 after his 2011 injury, yet is a FA after the 2012 season. Charlie Batch continues to draw an NFL paycheck at 37, yet is also a FA after 2012. Ben is now 30, but I expect him to still have a few more productive years in him. I will be watching the 2013 draft with interest to see if the Steelers add a QB either for strict backup duty, or with an eye towards the future, ala NE and Mallett.
Outlook: Ben makes a much better QB2 than QB1, but can see how a team loaded at other positions would be fine with him. Ben's production in 2013 shouldn't drop off either, though Mike Wallace's spectre looms over the Steelers at the moment. If Ben is injured, Leftwich/Batch is a capable replacement, both for the Steelers and for fantasy, but there is still uncertainty as to which would fill the role.
AFC South:
Houston: Schaub is a FA after 2012 and if the Texans had a promising young QB on their roster I wouldn't be surprised if Schaub walked, especially if he is injured again. However, TJ Yates and John Beck have very little promise. Schaub just turned 31, so his time is growing shorter, but if he performs as he did in 2010, the Texans likely extend him. Yates is signed through 2014, but after his 3 int performance in the 2011 playoffs, he doesn't have a lead on the starting job. Beck has failed to ever perform as an NFL starter. The Texans look to finish first in the AFC South in 2012, so any pick they have for the 2013 draft probably wont be high enough for them to draft a franchise quarterback. I believe the most likely scenario is that Schaub comes back, but there is a distinct possibility there is a new signal caller under center in 2013.
Outlook: Schaub should be a solid #2 QB in 2012. His future outlook is a little murkier because of his contract and injury status. I do not think that any other QB on the Texans roster is of a starting caliber, but someone with an affinity for Yates may look to add him. Any FA or rookie joining the Texans has to be given a close look with a decent passing attack and a great RB out of the backfield in Foster.
Indianapolis: Luck is probably a #2 QB for 2012, but has to be viewed as a potential #1 moving forward into 2013 and beyond. The Colts QB cupboard is bare behind Luck, with Drew Stanton the only other QB of note. Stanton is only under contract through 2012, but I don't see him moving onto any other position besides backup. Harnish and Vittatoe have practice squad written all over them. Luck is the shining star here, I would be happy to have him moving forward.
Outlook: Luck is one of the best "can't miss" prospects in a long time. He could solidify a #1 QB spot for the next 10 years. I have no hope that Stanton ever progresses beyond backup/mop up duties. Highly unlikely any ther fantasy quarterbacks appear from the Colts roster.
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert looks to improve from his 2011 season and hold off Chad Henne. Preseason game #1 was a positive first step for Gabbert. I am not convinced that Gabbert has the tools to be a long-time starting quarterback in this league, but when the only other option is Henne, stiff competition isn't expected. Having said that, Henne has been a starter in the league before and there must be some consideration that if Gabbert struggles, Henne probably can fill in as well as Gabbert performs. I used to have some faith in Jordan Palmer developing into an adequate stopgap. That faith has been exorcised out of me by now.
Outlook: I wouldn't want to rely on a Jacksonville quarterback as anything more than a bye week option this year, regardless of the starter, and depending on interception penalties, might prefer the 0. Jax presents an odd situation where the younger QB with presumable upside doesn't seem to be valued much higher than the older, already failed, Henne. Some QBs show improvement out of nowhere, so i would hesitate to write off Gabbert totally, but I would not go out of my way to draft him. As for 2013, I think that Gabbert would have 2013 as a sink or swim year. I would draft Gabbert and be fairly confident he would see a significant number of snaps in 2013.
Tennessee: Hasselbeck is slated to start the first preseason game, but Locker carries the greatest value for this year and beyond. Much like last year, even if Hasselbeck begins the season under center, it seems to be fairly obvious that Locker will receive several games worth of starts. I believe the team would like to see Locker snatch the starting opportunity from Hasselbeck during the preseason. I enjoyed seeing Locker at the end of 2011, and though his comp % was low, I believe Locker can perform as a QB2 this year and has low-end QB1 potential moving forward. Rusty Smith may be the future backup after Hasselbeck inevitably retires.
Outlook: I'd pass on Hasselbeck as anything but a QB5, seeing no real upside, even if he finagles a start or two this year. I believe Locker should carry a high to mid QB2 price. Locker is keyed into at least a three year hold on the starting job and shows promise of being the future Ten. starter for a decade. Depending on draft date, I would be happy to pay a premium for Locker, even if he hasn't been announced as the starter for 2012.
AFC West
Denver: Peyton should still be in Denver for 2013 as long as he stays healthy. Manning's guaranteed money runs out after 2014, so I believe Peyton will hold the job until then, as long as his neck remains sound. Osweiler is signed through 2015 and is another attractive option if you can afford to burn a roster spot for a couple years. I don't root for injuries, but it can't be ignored that Manning was thought to be close to retirement because of his neck injuries. While I don't think that Osweiler would be ready to play in 2012, a full year of study under Manning may put Osweiler in a position where he could contribute in 2013 if the neck injury ever flares up. Caleb Hanie is a veteran presence for 2012 and would likely be called on to play if Manning couldn't go the first 8 games of 2012.
Outlook: Knock on wood, Peyton should give a team three solid years (12-14). He's still a QB1 and it is dangerous to plan for more than 3 years out, even in dynasty. He comes at a value because of his age and because he took 2011 off, but if he performs at 90% of his 2010 self, he is a great value after 10 QB's are off the board. Backing Manning up with Osweiler should come fairly cheaply. I am going to try to snag Osweiler, both because of uncertainty of Manning's ability to play 16 games and because I think that he holds very good value in 2015, if not sooner. Hanie had his starter's audition in Chicago and failed. I place almost no value on him, unless Manning sees a reoccurrence of injury in the first 8 games.
Kansas City: Cassel is a modest sleeper in my opinion. While he doesn't have the upside folks in 1QB leagues are looking for, in 2QB leagues I think he sneaks in as a solid #2. Early training reports have been glowing, he has two great receiving backs in Charles and Hillis, Baldwin has another year in under his belt and Moeki is back. At only 30, I look at Cassel as a QB that can get you high to mid #2 QB production for the next few years at a QB 2/3 price right now. Stanzi and Quinn are locked into a battle for the #2 spot and Stanzi's failure to separate himself from Quinn only cools me more on him. I believe Cassel is the only Chiefs QB that will carry value forward from 2012.
Outlook: Cassel is a sneaky QB2 with upside. He should still be productive in 2013 and beyond. I don't see Quinn as challenging for a starting role again and think that Stanzi may not have much of a future in the NFL. The praise Stanzi drew in OTA's seems to have all but evaporated.
Oakland: It's tough for me to believe Carson Palmer is only 32, it feels like he's been in the league for as long as Peyton Manning. Palmer has guaranteed money due in 2013, so it is highly likely that he will be with the Raiders for the 2013 season. With better receivers, Palmer could be a low-end QB 1 for the next few years, but I would feel much safer with him as a #2. As a #2 though, Palmer should still have at least 3 good years left, providing a fair amount of stability for the Raiders. Though receiving praise from the Texans, Leinart was brought to the Raiders as a backup. Though I once believed in him, I cannot envision Leinart receiving another opportunity to start, even if something happened to Palmer. If Palmer faltered, I expect the Raiders to see what the have in Pryor instead. Pryor is under contract through the 2014 season and would be an interesting project QB to roster. I believe it would take an injury to Palmer to give Pryor a shot, but Palmer hasn't been Iron Man and I expect Pryor to put up Vince Young numbers as a worst case scenario and feel he could be a poor man's Newton if lightning strikes.
Outlook: Palmer should be the starter in Oakland for at least the next three years, which doesn't seem to give Pryor much of an opportunity. If I had a development or taxi squad slot open, I might look to add him though, provided I could wait until 2014 for a return on my investment. I don't expect Leinart to ever carry value again.
San Diego: Rivers is signed through 2015 and I fully expect him to sign an extension after 13 or 14. A solid QB1 for the next several years, I believe that Rivers is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the game right now. I would be happy to take him and not have to worry about my first quarterback for many years. Whitehurst watched one of the best opportunities a backup has had in the past few years all but evaporate. Failing to beat out Tavaris Jackson is a pretty big strike against you and I am unable to see a scenario where Whitehurst gets another such opportunity. The only way I believe Whitehurst sees the field would be due to a Rivers' injury. Jarrett Lee led all preseason week 1 passers, but at best he is headed for the practice squad.
Outlook: Rivers is the only QB of value here. If I drafted Rivers, I would be tempted to pick up Whitehurst late for backup purposes. While I don't think Whitehurst will receive another starting opportunity, he could be a capable starter in San Diego if Rivers went down for an extended period of time. For all intents and purposes, Kevin O'Connell can be ignored (he was a hot commodity only 4 years ago).
Besides the AFC quarterbacks with obvious value, the QBs I am most interested in for 2QB dynasty/keeper leagues are:
Tannehill-just for potential growth into a #1 QB if the Phins can find receiving talent in the next three years.
Mallett-if I can afford to roster a QB for 3 years before seeing some possible return.
Tim Tebow-if he gets an opportunity to start, we know that he can compile points and there may be a fire under Rex Ryan if Sanchez struggles.
Gabbert-mainly because he is an after thought this year and should see significant playing time both this year and in 2013 to quickly determine his future value.
Locker-though he carries an ADP of 23 on FFC, I value him much closer to QB 15, both for his long-term promise and for his scoring potential in 2012.
Osweiler-as a long term development project and in case Peyton's neck injury happens to flare up again.
Cassel-with an ADP of 27 on FFC, I believe he is at least 7 spots too low for 2 QB leagues. He should be a consistent, if unflashy second quarterback.
Pryor-another player I might add to look if I could afford a developmental player for the next two years.
Will get to the NFC shortly.
