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You're right it does boils down to risk/reward. The risk is low with Green and there's a good chance he outperforms his ADP but he's not going to be a top 10 back. He's in the range of A. Peterson, D. Williams, Jamal... He's a slam dunk over Jamal IMO and there's a good chance that both AP, D. Williams will share carries and while if given the job they could have more upside, there's also a good risk that they will have to share thereby dimishing their value. So do you go for the homerun in AP or the solid pick in Green? That's what it boils down to to me....
I don't totally agree with this. Green was the #12 RB last year based on PPG and ranked 15th missing 2.5 games last year. Houston has been a decent source of RB production the past few years. Even though they split the pie 7 ways last year, as a team the Texans put up decent RB numbers.I doubt Green will ever sniff the Top 5 again but he could approach the Top 10 if he stays healthy. Considering that you can get him in the late fourth that's a pretty decent bargain when IMO similar risk players are going in the 2nd round.
I wasn't very clear in my post. I like Green and am targeting him in every draft and believe he will outperform his ADP but am not expecting him to be a top 10 back. As you said he was #12 last year and "could approach top 10 if he's healthy" which I totally agree with and where I see his upside being. I like the opportunity in Houston since he has no one behind him and he's a better Dom Davis with a better head coach. My point with my post was that I believe guys in his tier are AP, Jamal, D. Williams, etc. (AP/DA in particular) may have more upside if everything breaks right for them but there's a decent risk that it may not break their way.David Yudkin said:
I guess it all depends on how you evaluate players. I see Green doing a fair amount beter than Lewis. I think ADP would do better if he were a full time starter but at this point I don't thing he is. I also see Williams as a backup at this point and even if he were to become the starter IMO the last few years the Texans RB have done better overall than the Panthers.My point being, of the guys you listed I think Green will see the ball the most when you consider his receptions and he plays on a better team for RB production and/or does not have to split the workload very much.I suppose it depends why you draft Green. I took him in a league recently as a RB2 after landing SSmith and T.O. at WR. I'm sure some teams may get him as a RB3--in which case maybe a home run threat like ADP might be better as a third RB.
I agree with everything you said. I personally would pick him over any of those players at those positions over Green and was just responding to a poster regarding risk/reward. I see Green as a relatively low risk with a decent reward and one of the better potential values in the 1st few rounds.
What I meant was I don't expect him to produce top numbers, or hold onto the job all year. IMO Green is done and has been for a while.dapunisher said:If you know that you can have Green in the fourth round, that makes him either your 3rd RB, or more likely, if he's your RB2, this allows you to grab two stud WRs. Assuming you've grabbed a top flight RB in round 1 with the #6 pick, you now have the potential to have two top 10 RBs and two Top 10 WRs after Round 4. That's a risk worth taking, in my opinion.
Did the Texans give Green a $23 million contract to sit him?Who of the following is going to displace Green? Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, Samkon Gado, Chris Taylor, Darius Walker.Green averaged 102 yards from scrimmage a game last year. Is that a sign that he's done?What I meant was I don't expect him to produce top numbers, or hold onto the job all year. IMO Green is done and has been for a while.dapunisher said:If you know that you can have Green in the fourth round, that makes him either your 3rd RB, or more likely, if he's your RB2, this allows you to grab two stud WRs. Assuming you've grabbed a top flight RB in round 1 with the #6 pick, you now have the potential to have two top 10 RBs and two Top 10 WRs after Round 4. That's a risk worth taking, in my opinion.
Over the past two years (when HOU had DDavis for part of a year and then NOBODY at RB), the Packers RBs scored 601 fantasy points to the Texans 562.I do not believe that the HOU OL FOR RUSHING is worse than GB's. And from what I hear anyone will be better than Carr was at QB.Green is getting drafted as the 25th RB off the board coming off what I just outlined (12th in PPG, 15th in yearend ranking, 102 yards from scrimmage per game). He's played in 14+ games in 8 of 9 years in the league.But feel free to ignore him and if you don't like him, don't draft him
Dayne + Lundy last year = 275-1088-9-47-281Are you telling me, on per game basis, Green can't do that? Will he miss a few games? Sure. But, on a per game basis, he could be a solid RB2 and you can have him in round 4.Unless you're predicting big injuries or a big drop off in ability, I don't see what's not to like here.
Do you really believe that Schaub is a better QB than Carr? I don't have any illusions that Carr was/is a great QB, but I think he's far from the "anyone would be better" category. Not that I think Schaub will be that much worse, but I am skeptical that he's an upgrade. That being said, I agree that Green is a good value where he's coming off the board now. I hope it continues until my drafts.
That's exactly what I'm telling you. Ahman Green put up worse numbers last year on a top 10 offense. So he's supposed to do that or better on a bottom 5 offense in Houston? No way. So far the best arguments I've heard for Ahman Green in 2007 him all have to do with Ron Dayne. "Well he won't get benched for Ron Dayne" or "Look what Ron Dayne did last season against some crappy defenses" That pretty much says it all right there.
Houston's rushing offense was equal to or better than Green Bay's rushing offense last year in Yards, rushing TDs, and YPC
That's a fine point until you look at the defenses he faced...Vikings twice (tough to run on)Bears defense (enough said)Patriots defense (enough said)Seahawks defense (tougher than most realize)I'm not sure it was a case of Green wearing down as much as the Packers inexperienced offensive line running up against some very good defenses.
Worse numbers? Green scored almost 1 PPG more than the Dayne/Lundy duo.IMO, looking at Houston's production last year on the ground is a better indicator than Green's production with GB last year. Fact is, Houston's RBs were okay last year and Green is currently in line to get the bulk of that production.That "top 10" offense in GB only produced 9 rushing TDs. Houston had 13 and have a coach much more committed to the run.Nobody's predicting Green to return to 4.5 yds/carry; we're just predicting a hefty number of touches which translates into fantasy points.
You make a good point about the Vikings, who gave up 2.8 yards per carry....but the Bears (4.0), the Patriots (3.9) and Seattle (4.6) were not so dominant against the run that you could not run. Fifteen NFL teams allowed between 3.9 YPC and 4.2 YPC.Like I said, I'm not saying he won't be solid, but those 2nd half numbers still raise red flags for me, considering his age.
That's true but you have to look at the bigger picture my friend. While the rushing offenses of the two teams was basically equal, Green Bay's passing offense was much superior to Houston's so as a result the overall offense of the Packers was much better than the Texans. I don't think it's enough to just say Ahman Green ran for this much in Green Bay, two guys ran for this much in Houston. Ahman Green will do the same. It doesn't work that way. Ron Dayne + Wali Lundy does not = Ahman Green. You guys gotta learn man, football's played on the field not on some calculator.
I totally agree. That's the thing though. He's not getting drafted that late. He's going in the 4th round. And you know that means some clown's probably eager to take him in the third round. I'm sorry but that's just too high of a price for me to pay.
hang on, someone get me a chisel and a stone tabletwe're talking about the opportunity to Green to put up decent numbers in the Houston offense, and as the numbers clearly show, that offense has been very RB friendly. that's the point. i don't think Green's numbers will equal Dayne's + Lundy's last year, they don't need to for him to be a respectable RB2 available in the 5th round.
Rb friendly? I don't know about all that. Ron Dayne had his moments late in the season against some bad defenses (Titans,Colts). Other than that the running offense as well as the overall offense for Houston was horrible. People are probably taking a little too much from a handful of games.There's no question that Ahman Green is better than Ron Dayne and Wali Lundy. I wouldn't say he's that much better but it's definitely an upgrade. How much of a upgrade is the biggest question in my opinion.If he stays healthy and if Schawb can play somewhat (big ifs imo) he could at best put up almost the same numbers he did last season. I think that's being very optimistic though. All this talk about top 12, top 10, or he's as good at 30 as Dominic Williams was in his prime that's just crazy talk.
Value and Wali Lundy? Is that an oxymoron?
Just out of curiosity, how many times in the same period did a over 30 year starter NOT score 175+ points.Interesting that only Tiki Barber and Priest Holmes show up twice....
Come on man. No one can say for sure but I will be shocked if the 2007 Houston Texans are even close to or better than any of those teams listed. There's 30 and then there's 30. Ahman Green has been around the block a long time and he hasn't aged gracefully. I won't say he's done but he's getting worse with age not better.
that's the bottom line for me. If Ron Dayne can produce in Houston, Green can be very successful if he stays healthy. I've seen him drop to t he 5th round in some cases, that's nice value.
