AJ Green: Where to grab him in redraft post-injury? (1 Viewer)

[Avery]

Sorry if I missed the discussion, but didn't see a thread.

Curious where people are targeting AJ Green in terms of round and/or other WRs.

What we know:
Injury:  Torn ligaments in his ankle.  
Return to action: A good estimate seems to be a week 4 return to action.
ADP: According to MFL, since his injury in actual drafts his ADP is 58th pick (high of 16th pick and low of the 212th pick).  Other WRs going in his ADP range (according to the same data are) Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, DJ Moore, and (somewhat ironically) Tyler Boyd.

He seems to be the sort of upside swing that can pay off for the playoffs.  The thing I like about Green (depending on when you can draft him) is although he has his share of injuries, he tends not to play until he is good to go.

Throwing the question in the poll as a 12 team PPR league because that seems to be most popular (please don't come at me if your league is not 12 team PPR... not all of mine are either).

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Went for $11 in a dynasty startup auction, which I thought was a bit low. But I get it.

for redraft I’d say 6-7th. I wouldn’t pay more than that. He’s likely gonna miss substantial time, and it’s not like he’s been old reliable the last couple years. 

 

[Avery]

Went for $11 in a dynasty startup auction, which I thought was a bit low. But I get it.

for redraft I’d say 6-7th. I wouldn’t pay more than that. He’s likely gonna miss substantial time, and it’s not like he’s been old reliable the last couple years. 

I'm in about the same range in a redraft.  Maybe just a bit earlier. I'd probably look at him in the 6th, maybe late 5th depending on my team makeup.  He has most definitely not been reliable, and I generally don't look to draft injuries players (got bit by Deon Lewis a few years ago and it still hurts) but I don't see many WRs with his upside around that point in the draft so might be worth a swing.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the 4th and 5th by someone more excited about his potential.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm in about the same range in a redraft.  Maybe just a bit earlier. I'd probably look at him in the 6th, maybe late 5th depending on my team makeup.  He has most definitely not been reliable, and I generally don't look to draft injuries players (got bit by Deon Lewis a few years ago and it still hurts) but I don't see many WRs with his upside around that point in the draft so might be worth a swing.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go in the 4th and 5th by someone more excited about his potential.

It’s also relevant to the value on the board when I’m picking. If there’s someone who I feel has upside sotting there, who’s not already hurt & who will be a contributor to my team (RB2, WR2, QB1) I’m gonna grab that asset & let someone else deal with Green. 

 

[Avery]

It’s also relevant to the value on the board when I’m picking. If there’s someone who I feel has upside sotting there, who’s not already hurt & who will be a contributor to my team (RB2, WR2, QB1) I’m gonna grab that asset & let someone else deal with Green. 

Agree and agree that "upside" is the key there for me.  I generally draft for upside and if I am feeling pretty good (or as good as I can feel) that Green will return to form, he may present better upside than may WRs I'd be looking at around his ADP.

 

[Weebs210]

Took him in the fifth in my 12 man redraft. Went RB-WR-RB-RB-AJ. Feel pretty good about it and will be nice to pair him with Julio when he returns. Have DJ Moore and Shepard to fill in until.

 

[Avery]

Took him in the fifth in my 12 man redraft. Went RB-WR-RB-RB-AJ. Feel pretty good about it and will be nice to pair him with Julio when he returns. Have DJ Moore and Shepard to fill in until.

Out of curiosity, what round did you draft DJ Moore?

 

[Weebs210]

Out of curiosity, what round did you draft DJ Moore?

8th round pick 88.

 

[Avery]

8th round pick 88.

Wow.  That's some good ridiculous value there.  Same ADP data has him at pick 61.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Wow.  That's some good ridiculous value there.  Same ADP data has him at pick 61.

Yeah when I get him it’s at 58 or 63. Falling from WR25 to 88th implies he went around WR37.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Back on topic I think WR25-27 is about right. His ADP is currently a full round ahead of his ECR.

 

[Raptors409]

5th Round seems pretty good to me. I've had plenty of teams built around injuries like this. You're short staffed for your first few weeks but after that you essentially have a super team compared to everyone else. 20% of players are going to miss some kind of meaningful action.
 

Only difference here is that it's front loaded. I guess what is kind of annoying is that you'll probably miss him:

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

Then have him for:

Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
 

Then a bye week:

Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16

Dude is going to win leagues for those drafting 1.01 to 1.06. Haven't seen any draft where anyone in the second draft takes him. He always goes right after Calvin Ridley and Mike Williams. The only caveat is that you have to draft a team GOOD ENOUGH to go 2-2 in the meantime.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

5th Round seems pretty good to me. I've had plenty of teams built around injuries like this. You're short staffed for your first few weeks but after that you essentially have a super team compared to everyone else. 20% of players are going to miss some kind of meaningful action.
 

Only difference here is that it's front loaded. I guess what is kind of annoying is that you'll probably miss him:

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

Then have him for:

Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
 

Then a bye week:

Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16

Dude is going to win leagues for those drafting 1.01 to 1.06. Haven't seen any draft where anyone in the second draft takes him. He always goes right after Calvin Ridley and Mike Williams. The only caveat is that you have to draft a team GOOD ENOUGH to go 2-2 in the meantime.

The only flaw to your theory is that AJ Green could *also* miss more time by getting hurt again. 

Your post assumes perfect health for AJ Green the rest of the way, projecting that his “front-loaded” missed time will be equal to the missed time potential of others. 

Given his history that’s far from a lock. And especially given the nature of his position & this injury - he could be more likely to get hurt again than many other healthy players. 

So while he could indeed be a league winner as a 5th, there’s also potential for him to be a league loser for you as a 5th. 

 

[Raptors409]

The only flaw to your theory is that AJ Green could *also* miss more time by getting hurt again. 

Your post assumes perfect health for AJ Green the rest of the way, projecting that his “front-loaded” missed time will be equal to the missed time potential of others. 

Given his history that’s far from a lock. And especially given the nature of his position & this injury - he could be more likely to get hurt again than many other healthy players. 

Right but everyone else could also get hurt those 4 games they're getting tackled when AJ Green is sitting at home eating potato chips. So it's a wash all around, imo.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Right but everyone else could also get hurt those 4 games they're getting tackled when AJ Green is sitting at home eating potato chips. So it's a wash all around, imo.

Except it’s not. 

Those other players *might* miss time.

AJ Green is 100% guaranteed to miss *at least* 4 games.

sure, anyone could get hurt. But Green *is* hurt.

and there’s zero guarantee he won’t get hurt again. He’s just as, if not more likely to get hurt & miss games late as anyone else. 

 

[Raptors409]

Except it’s not. 

Those other players *might* miss time.

AJ Green is 100% guaranteed to miss *at least* 4 games.

sure, anyone could get hurt. But Green *is* hurt.

and there’s zero guarantee he won’t get hurt again. He’s just as, if not more likely to get hurt & miss games late as anyone else. 

Right, but you're talking about AJ Green getting hurt again and using that as excuse as to why it's not front loaded. My argument is who is MORE LIKELY to get hurt? Players who are going to play 16 games this season? Or players who are only going to play 12 games this season?
 

More snaps = More tackles
More tackles = More injury opportunity

It's why Runningbacks get hurt more than Wide Receivers.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Right, but you're talking about AJ Green getting hurt again and using that as excuse as to why it's not front loaded. My argument is who is MORE LIKELY to get hurt? Players who are going to play 16 games this season? Or players who are only going to play 12 games this season?
 

More snaps = More tackles
More tackles = More injury opportunity

But he’s already hurt.

And he can get hurt again in those 12 games. lol 

so I’m unconvinced your calculus is accurate there. 

And if you’re asking for likely outcomes, one could easily ask who’s more likely to get hurt:

A player with healthy ankles playing 16 games 

or

a player with a significant injury & ligament damage playing 12 games

lots of ways to slice & dice that. I still don’t think the “front-loaded injury time missed” theory holds water, because as mentioned, you can’t assume perfect health the rest of the way for Green. 

 

[Raptors409]

But he’s already hurt.

And he can get hurt again in those 12 games. lol 

so I’m unconvinced your calculus is accurate there. 

And if you’re asking for likely outcomes, one could easily ask who’s more likely to get hurt:

A player with healthy ankles playing 16 games 

or

a player with a significant injury & ligament damage playing 12 games

lots of ways to slice & dice that. I still don’t think the “front-loaded injury time missed” theory holds water, because as mentioned, you can’t assume perfect health the rest of the way for Green. 

Green can get hurt those other 12 games the same way everyone else can get hurt. Not sure how that's a positive / negative against Green. Like I said prior, it's wash since everyone has equal opportunity to get hurt. I'd take Green staying healthy over 12 games over any other player staying healthy over 16 games. Even with a bum ankle, that's a no brainer bet, imo. AJ Green is going to have close to 2 months to recover. Nobody else will get the chance to recover when they get hurt in the regular season. They'll be forced to play hurt. Sure they're healthy now, but by the time AJ Green actually comes back there will be multiple skill players injured (because they're actually playing).

How did Green hurt his ankle? Getting tackled in practice. Every other player is going to have 4 games more of tackling than Green. In my opinion, the players getting tackled for 4 more games than AJ Green have a higher chance of injury. You can argue that if you want but I know how statistics work. 4 weeks in, everyone is going to start to get nagging injuries.

The only difference is that AJ Green will be coming in fresh. Unless you think the Bengals are going to rush him back for a season that is probably going to end up being meaningless. AJ Green is less likely to get injured because he has less opportunity to get injured. I think any player that plays 4 games is just as likely to develop an ankle / ligament / whatever injury as AJ Green developed during preseason.

Tackles = Injury Risk (besides the freak injuries)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Green can get hurt those other 12 games the same way everyone else can get hurt. Not sure how that's a positive / negative against Green. Like I said prior, it's wash since everyone has equal opportunity to get hurt. I'd take Green staying healthy over 12 games over any other player staying healthy over 16 games. Even with a bum ankle, that's a no brainer bet, imo. AJ Green is going to have close to 2 months to recover. Nobody else will get the chance to recover when they get hurt in the regular season. They'll be forced to play hurt. Sure they're healthy now, but by the time AJ Green actually comes back there will be multiple skill players injured (because they're actually playing).

How did Green hurt his ankle? Getting tackled in practice. Every other player is going to have 4 games more of tackling than Green. In my opinion, the players getting tackled for 4 more games than AJ Green have a higher chance of injury. You can argue that if you want but I know how statistics work. 4 weeks in, everyone is going to start to get nagging injuries.

The only difference is that AJ Green will be coming in fresh. Unless you think the Bengals are going to rush him back for a season that is probably going to end up being meaningless. AJ Green is less likely to get injured because he has less opportunity to get injured. I think any player that plays 4 games is just as likely to develop an ankle / ligament / whatever injury as AJ Green developed during preseason.

Tackles = Injury Risk (besides the freak injuries)

 It’s only a negative for green in the context that you’re comparing him to other players who are not already hurt. 

While there is no guarantee that any of those players miss time, it is 100% guaranteed that AJ Green misses time. 

 And the discussion is whether AJ Green is a better pick at that draft spot than one of those players who is not already hurt. 

 Any player could get hurt at any time. That is true. It could happen during a tackle, or with no contact at all. 

But where AJ Green is guaranteed to miss at least four games this year, there is no guarantee that any other player miss time. 

 I’m not saying he’s not worth the risk there. He certainly may be. But the way you stated that his injury is “frontloaded“ compared to other players is a flawed theory. For one, because those other players are not guaranteed to miss time and for two, because AJ Green could miss *additional* time. 

To paraphrase: You’re not getting a player was hurt at the beginning to avoid a player who is hurt at the end, because AJ Green could well be hurt at the end in addition to being hurt at the beginning. 

 

[Raptors409]

 It’s only a negative for green in the context that you’re comparing him to other players who are not already hurt. 

While there is no guarantee that any of those players miss time, it is 100% guaranteed that AJ Green misses time. 

 And the discussion is whether AJ Green is a better pick at that draft spot than one of those players who is not already hurt. 

 Any player could get hurt at any time. That is true. It could happen during a tackle, or with no contact at all. 

But where AJ Green is guaranteed to miss at least four games this year, there is no guarantee that any other player miss time. 

 I’m not saying he’s not worth the risk there. He certainly may be. But the way you stated that his injury is “frontloaded“ compared to other players is a flawed theory. For one, because those other players are not guaranteed to miss time and for two, because AJ Green could miss *additional* time. 

To paraphrase: You’re not getting a player was hurt at the beginning to avoid a player who is hurt at the end, because AJ Green could well be hurt at the end in addition to being hurt at the beginning. 

Right. That's why you get him in the 5th instead of the 3rd. it's built into his value. That''s why it's a wash. You get the discount based on the fact he's only playing 12 games.

ETA

I think we're arguing on the same side here and pretty much splitting hairs. Gonna agree to disagree. I think AJ Green is less likely to get hurt than the guys who are playing 16 games. You may disagree based on how bad you think his ankles are / aren't. But that's not something I can argue empirically. 

 

[Bfrahm3]

He went 5.9, 5.12 and then 6.2 in FBG players championships abt a week ago. I got him in the one at 6.2 and was very happy to take him there.  

 

[Avery]

He went 5.9, 5.12 and then 6.2 in FBG players championships abt a week ago. I got him in the one at 6.2 and was very happy to take him there.  

I'm sitting (close to) the turn at 5/6 at 5.11 in a slow draft in the mid 4th right now.  It's looking like there won't be many of those higher upside WRs I love there and if he is there, I may just be taking him there. We will see...

 

[PhantomJB]

although he has his share of injuries, he tends not to play until he is good to go.

IMO this line of reasoning is flawed, therefore making Green's re-injury risk higher than average.

Green re-injured his foot last season in the first quarter of his first game back.

This year he injured his ankle on the very first day of training camp...even though it was on the other foot no one knows whether it was a compensatory-type injury.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

IMO this line of reasoning is flawed, therefore making Green's re-injury risk higher than average.

Green re-injured his foot last season in the first quarter of his first game back.

This year he injured his ankle on the very first day of training camp...even though it was on the other foot no one knows whether it was a compensatory-type injury.

This is partly what gives me pause with Green as well. He seems to be getting hurt more frequently, and with the type of injuries that recur. 

IMO he’s either gonna win you a league or lose you a league. 

Taking a brick in the 5th round is a season-killer in redraft. 

 

[mozzy84]

This is partly what gives me pause with Green as well. He seems to be getting hurt more frequently, and with the type of injuries that recur. 

IMO he’s either gonna win you a league or lose you a league. 

Taking a brick in the 5th round is a season-killer in redraft. 

HUH?  little dramatic here

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

HUH?  little dramatic here

 A little, but not completely. The fact is, if I can take a player that isn’t hurt over a player that is hurt I will probably do that more often than not.  

Also depends on the nature of the injury. If it was something like a running back who is suspended for the first four games that’s one thing. Or if it was an injury that wasn’t soft tissue related, that would be another thing. (arm fracture, 6 week recovery sort of thing)

But at this point I’m not sure I trust AJ Green to play more than 10 games this year, and I’m not even sure what to expect his production to be in those 10 games. 

As for whether it’s a dramatic take, I’ve historically landed some of my best upside league-winning type players in the 5-7 rounds. I believe taking  blank there can be very detrimental to success. I think Green has about a 50-50 chance of helping or hurting a team this year. It’s a dilemma. 

 

[fightingillini]

 A little, but not completely. The fact is, if I can take a player that isn’t hurt over a player that is hurt I will probably do that more often than not.  

Also depends on the nature of the injury. If it was something like a running back who is suspended for the first four games that’s one thing. Or if it was an injury that wasn’t soft tissue related, that would be another thing. (arm fracture, 6 week recovery sort of thing)

But at this point I’m not sure I trust AJ Green to play more than 10 games this year, and I’m not even sure what to expect his production to be in those 10 games. 

As for whether it’s a dramatic take, I’ve historically landed some of my best upside league-winning type players in the 5-7 rounds. I believe taking  blank there can be very detrimental to success. I think Green has about a 50-50 chance of helping or hurting a team this year. It’s a dilemma. 

This.

Green is going to be out about 4 games.  Then it's going to take some time to get back in shape.   And can he stay healthy for say 10 games?  And will he come back and still be a top flight WR?  A lot of ifs here.

For a 5th or 6th round pick?  No way.  Too many other good options in that ADP range.

Pass and try and acquire him 3 weeks into the season on the cheap, assuming Green's owner is struggling out of the gate.

 

[Avery]

This.

Green is going to be out about 4 games.  Then it's going to take some time to get back in shape.   And can he stay healthy for say 10 games?  And will he come back and still be a top flight WR?  A lot of ifs here.

For a 5th or 6th round pick?  No way.  Too many other good options in that ADP range.

Pass and try and acquire him 3 weeks into the season on the cheap, assuming Green's owner is struggling out of the gate.

I don't see how this is going to work. Anyone that drafts Green is not planning on having him for the first four weeks.  No way they would sell after the "pain" of waiting three weeks when there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Also, even riffing on a 1st round pick, although not preferred, is entirely recoverable.  Missing out on a 5ht or 6th?  That is no way a "season killer".  In fact, I think it's entering the point where you should be taking some swings.  No weather or not Green is the right swing is very debatable, but taking swings in the 5th or 6th?  Sure.  I'd rather do that then draft a low ceiling sorta guy.

Just my 2 cents...

 

[mozzy84]

 A little, but not completely. The fact is, if I can take a player that isn’t hurt over a player that is hurt I will probably do that more often than not.  

Also depends on the nature of the injury. If it was something like a running back who is suspended for the first four games that’s one thing. Or if it was an injury that wasn’t soft tissue related, that would be another thing. (arm fracture, 6 week recovery sort of thing)

But at this point I’m not sure I trust AJ Green to play more than 10 games this year, and I’m not even sure what to expect his production to be in those 10 games. 

As for whether it’s a dramatic take, I’ve historically landed some of my best upside league-winning type players in the 5-7 rounds. I believe taking  blank there can be very detrimental to success. I think Green has about a 50-50 chance of helping or hurting a team this year. It’s a dilemma. 

Right, its not going to help obviously.   I was only responding back to a blank 5th being a season killer.  I lost freeman last year (2nd) and won the title.   Taking a swing on AJ in the 5th isn't that big of a reach or gamble imo, especially if you can IR him for the first month.  

 

[fightingillini]

I don't see how this is going to work. Anyone that drafts Green is not planning on having him for the first four weeks.  No way they would sell after the "pain" of waiting three weeks when there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Also, even riffing on a 1st round pick, although not preferred, is entirely recoverable.  Missing out on a 5ht or 6th?  That is no way a "season killer".  In fact, I think it's entering the point where you should be taking some swings.  No weather or not Green is the right swing is very debatable, but taking swings in the 5th or 6th?  Sure.  I'd rather do that then draft a low ceiling sorta guy.

Just my 2 cents...

Someone starting out 0-2 or 0-3 or 1-2 doesn't have the luxury of waiting for Green to come back.  First, there is no guarantee Green only misses 4 games.  And you have to factor in that Green might be rusty coming back.....that could be another 2-3 games.

I never said whiffing a 5th or 6th is a season killer.  But there are too many good options with upside to swing for Green right now at that price point.

 

[Raptors409]

I think it's important to note that if we forecast him back in Week 5. That's literally 55 days away. That's a lot of recovery time, imo. Only concern there is that Week 5 he goes against bird gang (Arizona Cardinals). Patrick Peterson first game back from injury.

Almost hope he comes back Week 5 or Week 6 for that matter, to avoid that being his "comeback game". But it is at home.

 

[Elevencents]

This is partly what gives me pause with Green as well. He seems to be getting hurt more frequently, and with the type of injuries that recur. 

IMO he’s either gonna win you a league or lose you a league. 

Taking a brick in the 5th round is a season-killer in redraft. 

Nah. Had Keenan Allen in the first round the year he got hurt week 1. Won the championship. Does it put you behind the eight ball? Sure. Season ender? Not at all. 

 

[Don Hutson]

I'm worried that he could be out longer than they are estimating.  He had ankle surgery.  They can call it a minor cleanup surgery but that doesn't sound like the type of surgery you have from a contact injury.  A minor cleanup surgery is the kind of surgery you have in the off-season because something has been nagging you.  The Bengals want to sell tickets so they want their fans thinking their exciting-to-watch superstar will play most of the season.  And AJ is playing for a new contract.  He isn't going to rush back and play before he is totally 100%.  Returning after their week 9 bye is possibly a more realistic return date.  I'll still draft him in round 7 but I draft with the fantasy playoff weeks as my priority.  And he will be playing his heart out at the end of the year to get one last juicy contract.

 

[Raptors409]

Nah. Had Keenan Allen in the first round the year he got hurt week 1. Won the championship. Does it put you behind the eight ball? Sure. Season ender? Not at all. 

Exactly and that's the point of having multiple teams. I'm willing to go AJ Green in 1/3 leagues I'm in this year. I don't want to lean on the guy but I also realize he's going to come back to 9 targets a game. If I can smuggle him as my WR3, that will be a huge success.

Play in enough leagues and it will happen. Perfect storm, baby.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nah. Had Keenan Allen in the first round the year he got hurt week 1. Won the championship. Does it put you behind the eight ball? Sure. Season ender? Not at all. 

Doesn’t help. lol