I'm fine with Batista winning it, I would vote Grandy based on my bias of watching him and the team all year, but Batista is having another strong season.
My big issue with this is giving it to a pitcher, as I've said repeatedly. The only way I'm behind it is in the rare alignment of huge, historic, pitching season, team success and no real outstanding offensive candidate.
What did you think of the "point #3" mentioned above about Verlander pitching to more plate appearances than any hitter will have this season? I think it's flawed in that it ignores defense and baserunning (I think this criticism is particulaly valid in the AL), but it's still a very good point to consider.With respect to Granderson, his problem is that there's no line of reasoning where he comes out on top even if you set aside Bautista. If you like the "slash" numbers Gonzalez is better. If you like WAR Pedroia and Ellsbury are better. If you like WPA several guys are better, including everyone I've mentioned so far. If you like those advanced stats but don't trust their fielding metrics, Gonzalez and Cabrera offered more hitting-only value and I think we can all agree Gonzalez plays better defense than Granderson. Granderson is a solid candidate, maybe Top 5, but there's no analysis that leads to the conclusion that he should win.
I mentioned above, bottom line, its short sighted. Its 1/5 of the starts, not 1/5 of the innings and it ignores defensive relevance. I think its a great "argument" but bypasses the contribution players make on defense.
Is Gonzalez better by comparison then most first basemen as compares to Granderson vs. most centerfielders? I would say yes, he's a top 3 defender at the position in the AL, but Granderson's defense is overly maligned and I learned all I need to know about defensive metrics when they said Teixera was a below average defender. CF is not a tremendously deep position in the AL, he's no worse than the 6th best defender out there and thats counting part time guys playing right now like Endy Chavez and DeWayne Wise. They're hardly full time starters. Grandy plays a shallow center, which cuts off the dinks and dunks but leaves him vulnernable to deep drives.
An average defender in CF is more vital a great 1b, for my money.
I know you can offer all sorts of rationale as to why slash line stats are more valuable, but Verlander's main case is wins, a "dinosaur" stat, but Granderson leads MLB in runs and RBI and he's 2nd in HR. I don't know that he needs statistical support beyond that, to me it speaks for itself.
I will say this though, the only guy without viable, legitimate MVP support on his team, is Batista. Cano/Grandy, Pedroia/AGon/Ellsbury and Verlander/Cabrera should all theoretically cancel each other out.
Once again, I'm looking to precedent here. If Guidry '78 and Pedro '99 aren't MVP seasons, then I don't think JV'11 is.