Alex Smith: Should Niners Keep Him? (1 Viewer)

[Jewell]

Seems apparent that the Niners will be going forward with Kaepernick as their starter next season. This raises the question...

What should the Niners do with Smith?

-- Keep Smith and have one of the better (if not the best) back-up QBs in the league in case of a Kaepernick injury.

-- Cut Smith (see savings associated with cutting Smith in the below article.)

If you think Smith will be cut, where do you think he ends up?

-- Trade Smith since offers could be attractive because Smith could likely come in and start for several teams.

If you think the Niners should trade him, what do you realistically think the Niners could get for him? If you would want your team to pursue a trade for Smith, what would you be willing your team to part with?

Here's an article from last month that discusses the various options...

The 49ers re-signed Smith this past March, after working out Peyton Manning. Whether Jim Harbaugh was pursuing Manning, evaluating Manning, or whatever, it showed some inclination to consider alternatives to Smith. Manning eventually signed with the Denver Broncos, and the 49ers worked out a three-year deal with Smith in a way that provided the team with an opportunity to get out of the deal each year.

Some are asking "Why not trade Smith then"? This is a perfectly valid question, but lets go into detail on what his deal looks like. Smith received no signing bonus, but rather a $3 million roster bonus once he signed the contract. Additionally, he received a guaranteed $5 million base salary. He also is eligible for $1.25 Million in "likely to be earned incentives." Those however would only be met if on the roster.

As we look at the 49ers options with Alex Smith, keep in mind that since the trade deadline has already passed, there can be no more trades done until the new league years begins next March. This is tentatively looking like March 12, 2013.

There are 2 key dates to keep in mind: 1) March 12, 2013 (tentatively based on new league year date, and 2) April 1, 2013. The former date is when Alex Smith is due a $1 million roster bonus. The latter date is when his $7.5 million base salary for 2013 becomes fully guaranteed. Whatever the 49ers elect to do, $1 million of that $7.5 million is already guaranteed separate from the base salary and the earlier March roster bonus.

Now comes the fun part: is it worth it to trade him or cut him?

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.

What likely makes the most sense is to cut Smith before the $1 million roster bonus is due. By doing that, the 49ers are only on the hook for the $1 million of his $7.75 million base salary that is guaranteed. The question is basically, is it worth a shot at getting a deal done after league year begins, or to eventually find out there is not a sufficient trade market for Smith, and be stuck releasing him before April 1, and pay him $2 million in dead money.

Below is a chart of what would be saved vs. dead money for both cutting Smith and trading Smith. (Chart in linked article)

http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/12/11/3752556/alex-smith-contract-trade-release-colin-kaepernick

 

[Eminence]

I'll throw you a 4th Rounder for him. 3rd Rounder at most.

 

[saintfool]

He'll get cut before he is traded.

 

[drummer]

Nice article from Hurley. Good Cap guy and a solid guy all around.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

cut and give Kaep extension.

 

[drummer]

Smith is a goner either way. The 49ers need the cap savings, and they can always get another backup in the draft or waivers and such.

 

[Jewell]

Added this question to the OP...

If you think Smith will be cut, where do you think he ends up?

 

[5Rings]

I'll throw you a 4th Rounder for him. 3rd Rounder at most.

He'll get cut before he is traded.

Don't see 49ers allowing him to leave and go sign in AZ

cut and give Kaep extension.

Two bad suggestions. Why give away an asset, and why give an extension when Kap is in the team's control for 4 more years?

 

[drummer]

I'll throw you a 4th Rounder for him. 3rd Rounder at most.

He'll get cut before he is traded.

Don't see 49ers allowing him to leave and go sign in AZ

cut and give Kaep extension.

Two bad suggestions. Why give away an asset, and why give an extension when Kap is in the team's control for 4 more years?I don't think Smith going to AZ is a bad thing for the 49ers. With that O-line, it's a bad move for Smith.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I don't know the 49ers cap situation, but if keeping him would lead to the loss of a high to elite tier FA this year or in the 2 (I.e., Bowman, Crabs, Davis, Smith, Staley...), I'd switch options 2 and 3.1. Look to trade him for a Kolb type deal. He'll be 29 all next season and just entering his prime; 4-6 years of continued production is realistic. He's not an elite statsman, but in 09 and 10 he finally played good enough to be a starting NFL QB. In 12 and 12, he was above average, extremely efficient and didn't lose games for his team.2. Keep him; Kaepernick looked very good at times, but his sample size is small. Smith would be a great security blanket if he got hurt or regressed. This is a team built to win now.3. Cut him; only reason I'd do this is if it meant being able to re-sign someone you need you'd lose if if you kept Smith.

 

[saintfool]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

 

[Eminence]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

I don't see a situation where he isn't traded. No way he gets cut.There's a team out there who wants the right to his contract as opposed to having multiple suitors in Free Agency.

 

[saintfool]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

I don't see a situation where he isn't traded. No way he gets cut.There's a team out there who wants the right to his contract as opposed to having multiple suitors in Free Agency.This is the problem, according to the article:

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.

They should trade him and try to get something for him. However, to do that seems to require his involvement to help them facilitate the trade. He's a good guy by all accounts and may help them with this. However, if I am another team, I might just wait this out because the clock is working against the 49ers here.

 

[ReggieHammond]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

It'll be affordable next season though as their starter is earning peanuts. If they offload Smith they'll have very little of their cap invested in one of the most expensive positions so they'll have to save some cap room to extend Kaep in the next 1-2 years.

 

[drummer]

Smith might want to go to a team with a chance to be starter. This is Kaep's team now. 8 years with one team and not being the starter is not good for a QB at his age. I doubt he stays in SF because both he and his agent know he is done there.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

It'll be affordable next season though as their starter is earning peanuts. If they offload Smith they'll have very little of their cap invested in one of the most expensive positions so they'll have to save some cap room to extend Kaep in the next 1-2 years.Smith is not coming back. It's not happening. If they can get something for him in a trade, great. If not he'll be cut.

 

[Eminence]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

I don't see a situation where he isn't traded. No way he gets cut.There's a team out there who wants the right to his contract as opposed to having multiple suitors in Free Agency.

This is the problem, according to the article:

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.

They should trade him and try to get something for him. However, to do that seems to require his involvement to help them facilitate the trade. He's a good guy by all accounts and may help them with this. However, if I am another team, I might just wait this out because the clock is working against the 49ers here....and this is exactly how the Eagles got Chip Kelly. Sometimes there's a premium to be paid.Plug Alex Smith in Arizona and I think that could be a solid team. They'd be smart to draft a Quarterback to team with him though.Guy definitely has value. In the right situation, lead a team to playoffs and beat Drew Brees in a shootout.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

You don't tie up almost $8 million in cap space for your back-up QB. If they cut soon then the cap hit is peanuts.

I don't see a situation where he isn't traded. No way he gets cut.There's a team out there who wants the right to his contract as opposed to having multiple suitors in Free Agency.

This is the problem, according to the article:

By trading him, the 49ers would have to either negotiate with Smith to push the $1 million roster bonus back, and allow him to choose a team he would like to go to, or the 49ers would need to take the $1 million roster bonus, pay it, then wait until before April 1st to trade him. The 49ers could trade him after the April 1st date, but the base salary will be fully guaranteed at that point.

They should trade him and try to get something for him. However, to do that seems to require his involvement to help them facilitate the trade. He's a good guy by all accounts and may help them with this. However, if I am another team, I might just wait this out because the clock is working against the 49ers here....and this is exactly how the Eagles got Chip Kelly. Sometimes there's a premium to be paid.

Plug Alex Smith in Arizona and I think that could be a solid team. They'd be smart to draft a Quarterback to team with him though.

Guy definitely has value. In the right situation, lead a team to playoffs and beat Drew Brees in a shootout.

You could plug Peyton Manning in Arizona and he'd struggle. That o-line is horrendous. No doubt it would look better with someone other than Skelton/whatever crap they dumped behind center to close out the year, but it's just not something you want to roll with. They need to improve that line above all else. I think they could be a decent team with Kolb himself if only he had some time to throw.

 

[Tanner9919]

Added this question to the OP...

If you think Smith will be cut, where do you think he ends up?

don't know..SF allowed him to shop himself to other teams during the summer, but he received lukewarm interest, at best..perhaps the Jets take a shot at him? Chiefs? Jags?

 

[need2know]

I would rather take a chance on a young guy than sign Smith. Really limited qb. Can you imagine his numbers on a bad team like jax?

 

[Hopeless Lions Fan]

Why not KC? Reid will want a "Franchise" QB. He is fairly young and is proven. I could see KC giving a 3rd for him. And as a Jamal Charles owner :thumbsup:

 

[Da Guru]

I think SF will try to trade him but what they can get in return? Pretty sure they would jump all over a third rd offer.

 

[saintfool]

I think SF will try to trade him but what they can get in return? Pretty sure they would jump all over a third rd offer.

absolutely. they won't find any takers, i think. there are plenty of teams that could use him while they build for the future. with the right coaching and situation - which means setting the bar higher - Smith can be very effective for a team.

 

[drummer]

Added this question to the OP...

If you think Smith will be cut, where do you think he ends up?

This is the real question, which team would he play for next. Here are a few things to consider with Smith that can add some food for thought: 1) Since he was drafted in 2005, he has only played 2 full regular season schedules his entire career in San Francisco. One was in 2006, with Norv Turner as OC, the other last season under Harbaugh and Greg Roman. That's it. Of course injury has played a big part of that, but he also has at least two of his HC's make a switch from Smith to his backup using the "QB who gives us the best chance to win" vote of ill confidence. Singletary did that twice with Shaun Hill and Troy Smith, Harbaugh doing it this season with Kaepernick. So that leads to the question: is he a reliable enough starter for a team to bank on for 3-4 years? Jon Kitna has had played more full to almost full 16 game schedules than Smith has in Kitna's career. I'm not making a comparison between both QB's, just using Kitna and the 'career backup' type of QB Kitna has wound up being. Of course Smith is only 29 years old, but in QB years with all the injuries and coaches he is about 2-3 years older.

2) The famous Urban Meyer quote: First, let's start with Urban Meyer's thoughts on Smith from all the way back to 2005:

"It's going to be interesting in San Francisco," Meyer said. "Alex is an extremely quick learner. However, he's a guy that, until he understands it, he is nonfunctional. He is a guy that -- I keep hearing how Brett Favre kind of makes something out of nothing and is a person that runs around to make a play -- Alex Smith is not that kind of player. Alex Smith is a person that, once he is taught, has to learn it all. He might struggle early, but once he gets it, he gets it."

The above is the famous quote, but some more from Meyer on Smith:

"I'm going to be anxious to watch his development with the 49ers. Alex is so careful with the ball. His touchdown-to-interception ratio the last 2 years was phenomenal (47 touchdowns and seven interceptions). That's because, unless he knows exactly what's going on, he won't throw it. He won't just try to guess and take a shot. He has to know.

"That's why, early in his career, and early in our career with him at Utah, he was not an effective passer, because he really didn't understand. Once he understood, there was no one better. He learns quickly, though. But he's not a guy that you throw the ball out there and tell him, 'Go play.' He wants to know what is exactly expected of him and then he becomes a dynamite player."

David "Fooch" ***illo from Niners Nation also quoted Mike Martz on Smith in his article:

When you think about it, you'd be hard-pressed to think of bad interceptions Smith has made in his career. There have been times when he simply made a bad throw. But there have also been interceptions where the receiver ran the wrong routes or the ball tipped off the hand of the intended target. There have been times when he's tried to force the ball into a receiver in a desperation situation. But there haven't been the instances in which he made a horrible read and took an unnecessary, careless risk.

Flash forward to 2011 and Harbaugh's QB friendly 'system' with Smith. Harbaugh basically dumbed the offense down - like Norv Turner did with Smith in 2006 - to help accelerate Smith functioning within his offense. As you can see with Kaep, the playbook opened up more due to Kaep's skillset and moxie. Smith never ran the Martz offense in the regular season due to injury, so the Martz quote kind of ends there. Even with all the offense Smith had ran - he is a veritable encyclopedia with all the OC's he has had, even running Jimmy Raye's old 1980's offense with Singletary - he still seems to boot into a "system QB". Has Smith transcended past it, past the Urban Meyer quote? Who knows?

If Greg Roman who by all accounts is a slam dunk in Jacksonville as Head Coach after this season decides on a available Vet QB, he could take Smith with him due to Smith knowing his offense and it's system. A lot of the play calls and audibles are made for the run plays, and Smith knows how to check those at the line.

I think the bottom line is that Smith needs to be paired with an offensive HC who is building from the bottom up, with very little expectation as far as how fast they can get into the post season and beyond.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Don't see 49ers allowing him to leave and go sign in AZ

Do you really think the 9ers fear that scenario? Smith can not be effective behind that o-line, he doesn't have the skill set to do so (most QBs don't in fairness). Of course Arizona will be looking to improve that o-line but even still, is Smith even that much better than Kevin Kolb?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't see a situation where he isn't traded. No way he gets cut.

With teams knowing he'll be cut maybe they don't get many suitors willing to pay anything for him.

 

[David Yudkin]

Why not KC? Reid will want a "Franchise" QB. He is fairly young and is proven. I could see KC giving a 3rd for him. And as a Jamal Charles owner :thumbsup:

Is Smith really a franchise quarterback?He's been in the league for 8 years and I wonder if he would be considered a top tier QB. He's certainly better than he was a few years ago, but is he a guy a franchise is going to build their future around? I doubt it. He'll be 29 to start the season and has been a decent QB option for about a year and a half . . . and then lost his job.

 

[Hopeless Lions Fan]

Why not KC? Reid will want a "Franchise" QB. He is fairly young and is proven. I could see KC giving a 3rd for him. And as a Jamal Charles owner :thumbsup:

Is Smith really a franchise quarterback?He's been in the league for 8 years and I wonder if he would be considered a top tier QB. He's certainly better than he was a few years ago, but is he a guy a franchise is going to build their future around? I doubt it. He'll be 29 to start the season and has been a decent QB option for about a year and a half . . . and then lost his job.In KC he's a "franchise QB". Good enough for the rebuilding anyway.

 

[Jewell]

Since he was drafted in 2005, he has only played 2 full regular season schedules his entire career in San Francisco. One was in 2006, with Norv Turner as OC

I heard some football pundit (I forget who it was) suggesting that he could see a crappy team in need of a starting QB bringing in Alex as a starter and Norv as an OC due to their familiarity with each other.

 

[drummer]

Since he was drafted in 2005, he has only played 2 full regular season schedules his entire career in San Francisco. One was in 2006, with Norv Turner as OC

I heard some football pundit (I forget who it was) suggesting that he could see a crappy team in need of a starting QB bringing in Alex as a starter and Norv as an OC due to their familiarity with each other.Turner did a remarkable job with Smith, a way more dramatic improvement than what Harbaugh did last season. That wouldn't be a bad pairing between them for a team that's rebuilding.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Since he was drafted in 2005, he has only played 2 full regular season schedules his entire career in San Francisco. One was in 2006, with Norv Turner as OC

I heard some football pundit (I forget who it was) suggesting that he could see a crappy team in need of a starting QB bringing in Alex as a starter and Norv as an OC due to their familiarity with each other.Isn't Norv Turner considered to be locked into Cleveland already?Not that Brandon Weeden is necessarily a franchise QB, I wouldn't see the point in replacing him with Alex Smith already.

 

[Jewell]

Since he was drafted in 2005, he has only played 2 full regular season schedules his entire career in San Francisco. One was in 2006, with Norv Turner as OC

I heard some football pundit (I forget who it was) suggesting that he could see a crappy team in need of a starting QB bringing in Alex as a starter and Norv as an OC due to their familiarity with each other.

Isn't Norv Turner considered to be locked into Cleveland already?Not that Brandon Weeden is necessarily a franchise QB, I wouldn't see the point in replacing him with Alex Smith already.

Now that you mention it, I do recall hearing that Norv is going to Cleveland. If that's definitely the case, you're right, I can't see the Browns replacing Weeden with Smith.

 

[David Yudkin]

Why not KC? Reid will want a "Franchise" QB. He is fairly young and is proven. I could see KC giving a 3rd for him. And as a Jamal Charles owner :thumbsup:

Is Smith really a franchise quarterback?He's been in the league for 8 years and I wonder if he would be considered a top tier QB. He's certainly better than he was a few years ago, but is he a guy a franchise is going to build their future around? I doubt it. He'll be 29 to start the season and has been a decent QB option for about a year and a half . . . and then lost his job.

In KC he's a "franchise QB". Good enough for the rebuilding anyway.Would Smith be any better than Cassel?

 

[butcher boy]

Smith needs to go to a team that can win with either a running game or a great defense or both. He's not going to lead a team to anything by himself but put him on a team that excels in other areas and he won't lose you many games. He'll facilitate the running game and won't make boneheaded mistakes that put your defense in tough spots. The Niners did this successfully last year. I'm afraid the pickings may be slim for a good situation for Smith to end up in.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

There's been some talk on Cleveland radio that the Browns should offer San Fran a swap of 1st rounders for Alex Smith... Not sure if that'd get it done, but as a Browns fan I wouldn't mind seeing it happen.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Vikings have two fourth rounders....could see them offering one of them for him...

 

[Tackling Dummies]

There's been some talk on Cleveland radio that the Browns should offer San Fran a swap of 1st rounders for Alex Smith... Not sure if that'd get it done, but as a Browns fan I wouldn't mind seeing it happen.

Even Matt Millen thinks that's a bad idea.

 

[Donnybrook]

Added this question to the OP...

If you think Smith will be cut, where do you think he ends up?

don't know..SF allowed him to shop himself to other teams during the summer, but he received lukewarm interest, at best..perhaps the Jets take a shot at him? Chiefs? Jags?

People seem to ignoring this and continue to talk about giving up draft picks for Smith. I agree with saintsfool on this. Smith will have to be willing to negotiate a contract with a perspective team before a trade could possibly happen and even at that the 49ers are not in a position to demand much.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Why not KC? Reid will want a "Franchise" QB. He is fairly young and is proven. I could see KC giving a 3rd for him. And as a Jamal Charles owner :thumbsup:

as a KC fan...we have already seen this movie......

 

[drummer]

Added this question to the OP...

If you think Smith will be cut, where do you think he ends up?

don't know..SF allowed him to shop himself to other teams during the summer, but he received lukewarm interest, at best..perhaps the Jets take a shot at him? Chiefs? Jags?

People seem to ignoring this and continue to talk about giving up draft picks for Smith. I agree with saintsfool on this. Smith will have to be willing to negotiate a contract with a perspective team before a trade could possibly happen and even at that the 49ers are not in a position to demand much.The only real team interested in him was MIA, and I've read that they thought Smith wasn't a much better option than Matt Moore. His current contract with the 49ers is really only a single season contract when it all boils down.

 

[Donnybrook]

I am guessing if some team was willing to give up a 5th round pick to secure Smith rights, the 49ers would take it. A 5th round pick seems like common currency for deals like this.

 

[DiStefano]

Where he seemed to shine was with a team which had a solid running game and a good defense. Is there such a team who need a just above average quarterback? The Jags would be that if they solidified their defense, as would KC. AZ has no running game, and a porous o-line. Chicago hasn't come to the end of the Cutler era yet. The Jets have a good D, but no running game. Buffalo needs more out of their defense. There just aren't too many possibilities.I think the Niners pay him the $1m and resign him for backup money. Running qb's tend to get hurt.

 

[saintfool]

obvious suitors (defined as need or by opportunity):JacksonvilleKansas CityArizonapossible suitorshiladelphiaClevelandTennesseeBuffalounlikely suitors:San DiegoMinnesotaOakland

 

[RUSF18]

I think the Niners will get a 3rd and could even end up with a second (maybe with a late pick heading back). If you're bringing in a guy to be your starting QB, you aren't going to be scared by an $8 million price tag. And if you believe he is good enough to be your starting QB, you're better off ponying up the pick than fighting for him in free agency should he get cut. The amount of money you will need to invest in Smith to get him to sign, when so many teams are desperate for even adequate QB play, may not be far off from what he is owed right now. And I think I'd rather get him in and have him play for a potentially lucrative contract next year anyway.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think the Niners will get a 3rd and could even end up with a second (maybe with a late pick heading back). If you're bringing in a guy to be your starting QB, you aren't going to be scared by an $8 million price tag. And if you believe he is good enough to be your starting QB, you're better off ponying up the pick than fighting for him in free agency should he get cut. The amount of money you will need to invest in Smith to get him to sign, when so many teams are desperate for even adequate QB play, may not be far off from what he is owed right now. And I think I'd rather get him in and have him play for a potentially lucrative contract next year anyway.

Herein lies the problem. Last off season, anyone could have bit on acquiring Smith and no one did. So now teams are going to give up a 2nd or 3rd rounder to get him? I don't think there are many teams looking at Smith as a savior or the last puzzle piece to win them a ring. I would be surprised if a team gave up a first day draft pick for him.

 

[ldizzle]

How good was Alex Smith pre-Harbaugh? From what I can recollect he sucked so bad for a long time. I will feel bad for whoever ends up with him.

 

[drummer]

I think the Niners pay him the $1m and resign him for backup money. Running qb's tend to get hurt.

I don't think Smith or his agent plan on Smith just being a career backup when he is only 29 years old. If he was 34 on his 3rd go round with a different team you can pay him backup $$. Smith has a chance for a fresh start with new surroundings to help a team win as a starter. It would be insane for him to stay in SF for backup $$.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think the Niners will get a 3rd and could even end up with a second (maybe with a late pick heading back).

I feel pretty safe in saying there's no way anyone even pays a third, let alone a second.

 

[Bruce Leroy]

When they cut Smith, how long before Kaepernick holds out after they win the Super Bowl this year?Smith will go to the highest bidder, if there is one.It wouldn't shock me completely to see him out of a job & out of the league in 2013

 

[Chazzhawk]

Depending on the 49er's cap room, no one will give more than a 5th rounder for the guy, and there is no reason too. Team A tells the 49er's we will give you a 6th rounder for Smith, 49er's say no we want a 3rd or 4th for him Team A says ok I will wait 30 days and when you cut him I will get him for free. I think he does go to Arizona because he is probably pissed about losing his job and would love to have 2 cracks a year to beat them. Lets be honest too if Arizona gets an offensive line they are basically the same team as the 49er's were when Smith was at the helm.