FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Running Back - Updated Week 8, 2014
Tier 1
Le'Veon Bell - 22.5
Bell has always had elite vision, but he added elite burst to his repertoire when he shed weight this offseason. The results on the field have spoken for themselves. Combine that with his elite receiving ability and he's been a yardage machine. He's like a 22 year old Matt Forte with more burst. The TDs haven't come yet, but that's had more to do with Pittsburgh's tendencies inside the 10 than with Bell himself.
Tier 2
DeMarco Murray - 26.5
The workload is concerning, and he's an UFA at the end of the year so there are no guarantees that he'll end up back on Dallas behind that elite offensive line, but if he holds up and stays in Dallas he could give you a run of great seasons along the lines of what Jamaal Charles started a few years ago.
LeSean McCoy - 26.2
Definitely having a down year, but he's still young (amidst the current landscape of producing running backs) and should bounce back nicely in Chip Kelly's offense.
Jamaal Charles - 27.9
Age is starting to catch up to him, but it hasn't shown on the field. Should be good for 2.5 more years of elite production.
Giovanni Bernard - 22.9
I'm much lower on Bernard than most because, while he's dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield, he's really struggled actually running the football. His fantasy production has been fine, but my concern is that he'll lose more and more of that role to Jeremy Hill as time goes on. I can see a scenario where he ends up as the 1B guy rather than the 1A guy. Fun fact, Giovanni Bernard has rushed for 4ypc in only 2 of his last 10 starts. The much maligned Doug Martin, whom most have written off as basically useless as a runner, has eclipsed 4ypc in 5 of his last 10 starts.
Andre Ellington - 25.5
Going forward, Ellington is a bit of a boom or a bust even though he's currently booming. He's currently a 3-down back that's good in the receiving game and just started getting goaline looks who's putting up good fantasy production on a bum foot that should heal in the offseason. The boom is that, with the foot healed up, he takes all those touches and does even more with him and ends up as a top 3 dynasty running back. The bust is that Arizona adds a good running back early in the draft and Ellington's role is reduced significantly. If you could guarantee me that the Cards wouldn't add any RBs of note in the offseason I'd probably move him up ahead of both Bernard and Charles.
Eddie Lacy - 23.3
I worry about Lacy because I don't really believe in his talent. The uptick to that is the situation he's in looks to be golden for the long-haul if he can hold down the job. He's been getting a bit more involved as the season has gone on, but he's still a guy that wouldn't leave me too surprised if he was bunched in with "the rest" two years from now.
Carlos Hyde - 22.9
Looks to be the heir apparent to Gore and has looked good in spells out on the field. A lack of young productive running backs helps him land this high. He'll likely be a guy like Montee Ball who ends up as a 1st rounder in startup drafts next year despite having never started a game. In that sense, his short-term value is likely to increase a good amount if you want to buy him now and sell during the offseason. His long-term value is up in the air as there is always the risk that he ends up like, well, Montee Ball.
Matt Forte - 28.9
Forte's write-up would read similar to Foster's, minus the leg injuries, so he gets the spot over Foster as I think his fall off the cliff could come a year later than Foster's despite being slightly older.
Arian Foster - 28.1
Foster's ranking in relation to the guys around him will likely depend on the makeup of your team. He's blowing up right now so he's valuable if you have a contender, but by the start of next year he'll be 29 years old with a lot of carries and a history of leg injuries. He could drop off quickly.
Tier 3
Bishop Sankey - 21.9
Sankey has not made the most of his opportunities lately, but the relatively barren dynasty RB landscape still leaves him up here as a young guy that looks to still be in line to eventually take over the lead role.
Mark Ingram - 24.8
Like Bell, Ingram looks like a different runner this year with a burst we hadn't previously seen out of him. He's carved out a bigger role in New Orleans and, as an UFA at the end of the year he could end up in a spot that will actually utilize him as a workhorse next season.
Christine Michael - 23.9
We all know the story here. You're paying for upside. Pure, unadulterated upside with a very large floor. Only risk takers need apply. The good news is that Michael is one of those guys that's cheaper during the season while he sits on the inactive list. His value will likely skyrocket once again in the offseason, especially if Lynch leaves town. There's an opportunity to sell at double his current value before he even steps on the field, if you don't want to take the risk of holding him.
Ryan Mathews - 26.9
Brandon Oliver has cooled off after a fast start, and the starting RB job in the high powered San Diego offense should be waiting for Mathews when he returns.
Adrian Peterson - 29.6
Peterson's future is still up in the air, and he's wasted half a season on his already dwindling career, but he's worth a shot at this spot just for the chance that he could come back and give you a year or two of, well, Adrian Peterson before he hangs up the cleats.
Marshawn Lynch - 28.5
This will likely be Lynch's last year in Seattle so you're mostly paying for a half season of Lynch here, as I expect his production to decline elsewhere at the end of his career.
Jerrick Mckinnon - 22.3
The althetic McKinnon got his shot at the starting gig long before anyone ever thought he would and he's made the most of it. He's still raw as a runner but you wouldn't know it looking at the box score. There is always the risk of Peterson coming back for a year or two but you've got to think that Minnesota has been impressed enough to think of Mckinnon as the long-term answer.
Tier 4
Lamar Miller - 23.2
After failing to take hold of the starting job last year when given the opportunity, Miller has made the most out of his touches this year. Maybe he just wasn't ready yet and things have clicked, maybe the run blocking in Miami has improved, or maybe it's a combination of both. Either way, Miller's value has not risen with his production as much as it probably should have.
Alfred Morris - 25.3
Morris has steadily declined since Shanahan left town, but he still has a decent grip on the starting role and that plus his age leaves him with some value and the potential for a bounce back season next year.
The Rest
Ahmad Bradshaw - 28.5
CJ Spiller - 27.1
This season has been a disaster for Spiller, but as an UFA he'll get a fresh start on a new team next year. If you believe in his talent, now is the time to buy.
Chris Ivory - 26.5
Ivory has quietly produced well, is still fairly young, and plays for a team that has way too many holes to invest any decent picks at the running back position. This should be Ivory's job going forward, and he's producing like a solid RB2 there.
Jeremy Hill - 21.8
As Bernard continues to struggle running the ball outside of an occasional long run, Hill could start to see more and more work. His upside is somewhat capped however, in that, even in a best case scenario Bernard will likely be a large part of the gameplan for a long time going forward.
Isaiah Crowell - 21.6
Tre Mason - 21.1
Denard Robinson - 23.9
Andre Williams - 21.9
Charles Sims - 23.9
The time to buy was probably a couple of weeks ago, but Sims should get his chance to win the starting job in Tampa very soon. He has a 3-down skillset.
Doug Martin - 25.8
He's still youngish and I still believe he has talent. The Bucs' line was awful and I don't think that anyone could have had much success there. Whether it's somehow holding onto the starting job on a Tampa team that will eventually improve, or whether it's with another team, there is a good chance that Martin will still be a starter somewhere two years from now
Robert Turbin - 24.7
The expectation among most Ffers is that Christine Michael will be the guy to have if Lynch leaves town, and for the most part I agree with that. However, all Turbin has done is come in and play well when spelling Lynch this year, and he's worth grabbing on the shot that he ends up the guy over Michael.
Shane Vereen - 25.7
Ronnie Hillman - 22.9
Ben Tate - 26.1
Rashad Jennings - 29.5
Frank Gore - 31.4
Bryce Brown - 23.4
Zac Stacy - 23.6
Brandon Oliver - 23.3
Joseph Randle - 22.3
If the Cowboys can't re-sign Murray this offseason, Randle has shown that he would be very comfortable running behind that line and would immediately become a top 15 dynasty RB.
Knile Davis - 23.8
Trent Richardson - 23.2
Devonta Freeman - 22.5
Lorenzo Taliaferro - 22.3
Stevan Ridley - 25.4
Terrance West - 23.6
Joique Bell - 28.0
Jonathan Stewart - 27.5
Theo Riddick - 23.2
Knowshon Moreno - 27.2
Reggie Bush - 29.5
Fred Jackson - 33.5
Marcus Lattimore - 22.9
Ray Rice - 27.8
Tier 1
Le'Veon Bell - 22.5
Bell has always had elite vision, but he added elite burst to his repertoire when he shed weight this offseason. The results on the field have spoken for themselves. Combine that with his elite receiving ability and he's been a yardage machine. He's like a 22 year old Matt Forte with more burst. The TDs haven't come yet, but that's had more to do with Pittsburgh's tendencies inside the 10 than with Bell himself.
Tier 2
DeMarco Murray - 26.5
The workload is concerning, and he's an UFA at the end of the year so there are no guarantees that he'll end up back on Dallas behind that elite offensive line, but if he holds up and stays in Dallas he could give you a run of great seasons along the lines of what Jamaal Charles started a few years ago.
LeSean McCoy - 26.2
Definitely having a down year, but he's still young (amidst the current landscape of producing running backs) and should bounce back nicely in Chip Kelly's offense.
Jamaal Charles - 27.9
Age is starting to catch up to him, but it hasn't shown on the field. Should be good for 2.5 more years of elite production.
Giovanni Bernard - 22.9
I'm much lower on Bernard than most because, while he's dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield, he's really struggled actually running the football. His fantasy production has been fine, but my concern is that he'll lose more and more of that role to Jeremy Hill as time goes on. I can see a scenario where he ends up as the 1B guy rather than the 1A guy. Fun fact, Giovanni Bernard has rushed for 4ypc in only 2 of his last 10 starts. The much maligned Doug Martin, whom most have written off as basically useless as a runner, has eclipsed 4ypc in 5 of his last 10 starts.
Andre Ellington - 25.5
Going forward, Ellington is a bit of a boom or a bust even though he's currently booming. He's currently a 3-down back that's good in the receiving game and just started getting goaline looks who's putting up good fantasy production on a bum foot that should heal in the offseason. The boom is that, with the foot healed up, he takes all those touches and does even more with him and ends up as a top 3 dynasty running back. The bust is that Arizona adds a good running back early in the draft and Ellington's role is reduced significantly. If you could guarantee me that the Cards wouldn't add any RBs of note in the offseason I'd probably move him up ahead of both Bernard and Charles.
Eddie Lacy - 23.3
I worry about Lacy because I don't really believe in his talent. The uptick to that is the situation he's in looks to be golden for the long-haul if he can hold down the job. He's been getting a bit more involved as the season has gone on, but he's still a guy that wouldn't leave me too surprised if he was bunched in with "the rest" two years from now.
Carlos Hyde - 22.9
Looks to be the heir apparent to Gore and has looked good in spells out on the field. A lack of young productive running backs helps him land this high. He'll likely be a guy like Montee Ball who ends up as a 1st rounder in startup drafts next year despite having never started a game. In that sense, his short-term value is likely to increase a good amount if you want to buy him now and sell during the offseason. His long-term value is up in the air as there is always the risk that he ends up like, well, Montee Ball.
Matt Forte - 28.9
Forte's write-up would read similar to Foster's, minus the leg injuries, so he gets the spot over Foster as I think his fall off the cliff could come a year later than Foster's despite being slightly older.
Arian Foster - 28.1
Foster's ranking in relation to the guys around him will likely depend on the makeup of your team. He's blowing up right now so he's valuable if you have a contender, but by the start of next year he'll be 29 years old with a lot of carries and a history of leg injuries. He could drop off quickly.
Tier 3
Bishop Sankey - 21.9
Sankey has not made the most of his opportunities lately, but the relatively barren dynasty RB landscape still leaves him up here as a young guy that looks to still be in line to eventually take over the lead role.
Mark Ingram - 24.8
Like Bell, Ingram looks like a different runner this year with a burst we hadn't previously seen out of him. He's carved out a bigger role in New Orleans and, as an UFA at the end of the year he could end up in a spot that will actually utilize him as a workhorse next season.
Christine Michael - 23.9
We all know the story here. You're paying for upside. Pure, unadulterated upside with a very large floor. Only risk takers need apply. The good news is that Michael is one of those guys that's cheaper during the season while he sits on the inactive list. His value will likely skyrocket once again in the offseason, especially if Lynch leaves town. There's an opportunity to sell at double his current value before he even steps on the field, if you don't want to take the risk of holding him.
Ryan Mathews - 26.9
Brandon Oliver has cooled off after a fast start, and the starting RB job in the high powered San Diego offense should be waiting for Mathews when he returns.
Adrian Peterson - 29.6
Peterson's future is still up in the air, and he's wasted half a season on his already dwindling career, but he's worth a shot at this spot just for the chance that he could come back and give you a year or two of, well, Adrian Peterson before he hangs up the cleats.
Marshawn Lynch - 28.5
This will likely be Lynch's last year in Seattle so you're mostly paying for a half season of Lynch here, as I expect his production to decline elsewhere at the end of his career.
Jerrick Mckinnon - 22.3
The althetic McKinnon got his shot at the starting gig long before anyone ever thought he would and he's made the most of it. He's still raw as a runner but you wouldn't know it looking at the box score. There is always the risk of Peterson coming back for a year or two but you've got to think that Minnesota has been impressed enough to think of Mckinnon as the long-term answer.
Tier 4
Lamar Miller - 23.2
After failing to take hold of the starting job last year when given the opportunity, Miller has made the most out of his touches this year. Maybe he just wasn't ready yet and things have clicked, maybe the run blocking in Miami has improved, or maybe it's a combination of both. Either way, Miller's value has not risen with his production as much as it probably should have.
Alfred Morris - 25.3
Morris has steadily declined since Shanahan left town, but he still has a decent grip on the starting role and that plus his age leaves him with some value and the potential for a bounce back season next year.
The Rest
Ahmad Bradshaw - 28.5
CJ Spiller - 27.1
This season has been a disaster for Spiller, but as an UFA he'll get a fresh start on a new team next year. If you believe in his talent, now is the time to buy.
Chris Ivory - 26.5
Ivory has quietly produced well, is still fairly young, and plays for a team that has way too many holes to invest any decent picks at the running back position. This should be Ivory's job going forward, and he's producing like a solid RB2 there.
Jeremy Hill - 21.8
As Bernard continues to struggle running the ball outside of an occasional long run, Hill could start to see more and more work. His upside is somewhat capped however, in that, even in a best case scenario Bernard will likely be a large part of the gameplan for a long time going forward.
Isaiah Crowell - 21.6
Tre Mason - 21.1
Denard Robinson - 23.9
Andre Williams - 21.9
Charles Sims - 23.9
The time to buy was probably a couple of weeks ago, but Sims should get his chance to win the starting job in Tampa very soon. He has a 3-down skillset.
Doug Martin - 25.8
He's still youngish and I still believe he has talent. The Bucs' line was awful and I don't think that anyone could have had much success there. Whether it's somehow holding onto the starting job on a Tampa team that will eventually improve, or whether it's with another team, there is a good chance that Martin will still be a starter somewhere two years from now
Robert Turbin - 24.7
The expectation among most Ffers is that Christine Michael will be the guy to have if Lynch leaves town, and for the most part I agree with that. However, all Turbin has done is come in and play well when spelling Lynch this year, and he's worth grabbing on the shot that he ends up the guy over Michael.
Shane Vereen - 25.7
Ronnie Hillman - 22.9
Ben Tate - 26.1
Rashad Jennings - 29.5
Frank Gore - 31.4
Bryce Brown - 23.4
Zac Stacy - 23.6
Brandon Oliver - 23.3
Joseph Randle - 22.3
If the Cowboys can't re-sign Murray this offseason, Randle has shown that he would be very comfortable running behind that line and would immediately become a top 15 dynasty RB.
Knile Davis - 23.8
Trent Richardson - 23.2
Devonta Freeman - 22.5
Lorenzo Taliaferro - 22.3
Stevan Ridley - 25.4
Terrance West - 23.6
Joique Bell - 28.0
Jonathan Stewart - 27.5
Theo Riddick - 23.2
Knowshon Moreno - 27.2
Reggie Bush - 29.5
Fred Jackson - 33.5
Marcus Lattimore - 22.9
Ray Rice - 27.8
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