Am I contender? Draft rating (1 Viewer)

[dagman]

I'm in a 12-team, PPR Keeper League with fairly normal scoring. We get bonus points for TDs over 35 yds. 
Every team keeps up to 4 players with 16 player rosters. 

Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1K, 1 DST

There was a huge run on rookie RBs right out of the gate. McCaffrey, Mixon, and Fournette were all picked before my choice at #6, along with Nelson and Cooper. I ended up going with Cook at 1.06, 
So my final roster (draft round) looks like this:

QB: Luck (6, keeper), Palmer (11)
RB: Cook (1) Gordon (2, keeper), Peterson (16, keeper), Riddick (10)  L. Murray (FA pickup)
WR: Cooks (4, keeper), Parker (3), Moncrief (5), John Brown (8), Fuller (12, IR), Beasley (14)
TE: C. Fleener (9, missed out on the TE rush), J. Thomas (15)
 K: Crosby (13)
DST: Seattle (7)

Thoughts?

Post your link and I'll try to answer yours

 

[Hartliner]

QB evaluation: Love the Strategy with the QB's! Palmer has an easy schedule starting out the year and this alleviates the Luck situation. Once Luck gets back trade Palmer to maximize roster.

RB evaluation: You may have gotten one of the better Rookies because of situation with Cook. Rb's are solid. Maybe someone is better than Murray, but I understand the cuff

WR evaluation: This is where you may have to work and uncover the breakout. Beasley should be first to go if that occurs.

TE evaluation: You know you #### the bed. TE isn't that important though Fleener may surprise week 1 and you should watch the game to see how he looks, but I would look to see who has the most targets week one and go there because Fleener didn't do it last year.

You are middle of the road which is fine, because you now know to stay on top of the free agents and all of that good stuff.

DST and K evaluation: I was going to skip these all together, until I saw the draft round value of each. Never, ever, ever, ever, draft a DST or K this high again. You shot yourself in the foot. grab kicker and DST with last 2 picks always and you will have a much better opportunity to succeed every year.

Please respond to mine here - https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/760006-cooks-mixon-diggs-for-hyde-woodhead-dthomas/

 

[dagman]

QB evaluation: Love the Strategy with the QB's! Palmer has an easy schedule starting out the year and this alleviates the Luck situation. Once Luck gets back trade Palmer to maximize roster.

RB evaluation: You may have gotten one of the better Rookies because of situation with Cook. Rb's are solid. Maybe someone is better than Murray, but I understand the cuff

WR evaluation: This is where you may have to work and uncover the breakout. Beasley should be first to go if that occurs.

TE evaluation: You know you #### the bed. TE isn't that important though Fleener may surprise week 1 and you should watch the game to see how he looks, but I would look to see who has the most targets week one and go there because Fleener didn't do it last year.

You are middle of the road which is fine, because you now know to stay on top of the free agents and all of that good stuff.

DST and K evaluation: I was going to skip these all together, until I saw the draft round value of each. Never, ever, ever, ever, draft a DST or K this high again. You shot yourself in the foot. grab kicker and DST with last 2 picks always and you will have a much better opportunity to succeed every year.

Please respond to mine here - https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/760006-cooks-mixon-diggs-for-hyde-woodhead-dthomas/

Normally I would agree with you on both counts and I should have shown Defensive scoring as we get up to 22 points total, based on scoring and yardage given up along with pts for TOs, sacks and return yardage. Suffice to say, Defense is a little more important in this year league than normal and there had already been a run on Defenses and Kickers before I picked. This being a 4-player keeper league (47 players off the board before the draft) it doesn't take long for the draft to start to get depleted. 
Also, our kickers get .1 points per yard over 3 for FGs more than 30 yards, again making kickers ever so slightly more valuable than normal. 

 

[Hartliner]

Normally I would agree with you on both counts and I should have shown Defensive scoring as we get up to 22 points total, based on scoring and yardage given up along with pts for TOs, sacks and return yardage. Suffice to say, Defense is a little more important in this year league than normal and there had already been a run on Defenses and Kickers before I picked. This being a 4-player keeper league (47 players off the board before the draft) it doesn't take long for the draft to start to get depleted. 
Also, our kickers get .1 points per yard over 3 for FGs more than 30 yards, again making kickers ever so slightly more valuable than normal. 

But if its a scoring convention across the board I believe it is a tide that raises all the other boats all DSTs and Kickers will get higher by this. You can get production of the 6th best DST of the league by streaming. but you would know better since you prepared for the league- thanks for responding to my question too.

 

[dagman]

But if its across the board I believe it is a tide that raises all the other boats. You can get production of the 6th best DST of the league by streaming. but you would know better since you prepared for the league- thanks for responding to my question too.

This is a league I've Commissionered for 10 years. I've tried the Defense by week thing in the past and the other players almost always pick up two DSTs early to cover bye weeks, so it makes it harder.

 

[beerbuff]

I'd say not a contender. WR's and TE's are weak and other than Gordon your RB's are question marks. Yes-Cook is a question mark because we really don't know how much if any MN's offensive line has improved over last year. Streaming QB's are good but probably won't win you the league.

 

[dagman]

I'd say not a contender. WR's and TE's are weak and other than Gordon your RB's are question marks. Yes-Cook is a question mark because we really don't know how much if any MN's offensive line has improved over last year. Streaming QB's are good but probably won't win you the league.

IMO all TEs are weak this year past Gronk, Olsen, Eifert, and Kelce and when I missed out on those guys and Rudolph was picked one spot ahead of where I was going to take him I decided not to reach 
Witten, Gronk, Graham, and Reed were all keepers. Olsen, Kelce, Bennett, Walker, and Eifert were gone by round 4. I was going to take Rudolph in Round 9, but the owner just ahead of me snagged him, so I went with Best TE available. 
I deemed Seattle better than all the TEs left in Round 7 and Brown better than all the TEs left in Round 8. Basically, it came down to Seattle and Brown over Ertz, Doyle, or Rudolph. 
Cutler has a history of targeting his TEs a lot especially with Gace running the show. I think Thomas could be a huge sleeper. 
Luck is one of the top 5 QBs in the league, so giving up the 6th rounder as a keeper is a no-brainer. Palmer's schedule early in the year should produce in Luck's place.
Yes, my WRs are weaker than I would like, but with keeper picks in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th, and wanting to make sure I replaced Peterson with a future RB; I had to take Cook in the first.  
Parker is looking like an even better pick in the 3rd now that the hurricane has essentially wiped out his bye week which was going to be problematic in week 11 for me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm in a 12-team, PPR Keeper League with fairly normal scoring. We get bonus points for TDs over 35 yds. 
Every team keeps up to 4 players with 16 player rosters. 

Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1K, 1 DST

There was a huge run on rookie RBs right out of the gate. McCaffrey, Mixon, and Fournette were all picked before my choice at #6, along with Nelson and Cooper. I ended up going with Cook at 1.06, 
So my final roster (draft round) looks like this:

QB: Luck (6, keeper), Palmer (11)
RB: Cook (1) Gordon (2, keeper), Peterson (16, keeper), Riddick (10)  L. Murray (FA pickup)
WR: Cooks (4, keeper), Parker (3), Moncrief (5), John Brown (8), Fuller (12, IR), Beasley (14)
TE: C. Fleener (9, missed out on the TE rush), J. Thomas (15)
 K: Crosby (13)
DST: Seattle (7)

Thoughts?

Post your link and I'll try to answer yours

Clear concern about health at QB with an ancient & fragile Palmer (he'll stay on the field but his production seems to suffer as the hits pile up), and Luck's shoulder...really leaves you thin there. 

RB is also a bit thin - I'm not a fan of keeping AP, as that situation is a mess. Could work out for you with an Ingram injury, but betting on a 30+ yr old AP in a RBBC as your RB3 is a gamble. Riddick should be a weekly BYE or flex if PPR.  But still thin at RB. Hopefully Cook pans out (I own him as well) 

receivers are also a little weak - Cooks will have some monster games when Brady gets his head right. He had a solid game & was targeted deep several times. Not all defenses are the Chiefs. And I love Parker, but more as a WR3-4. Moncrief is scary without Luck, and after that you're pretty thin.

TE - yeah.

With the right breaks I'd give this team a 40% chance?  There are holes at every position. I like some of your players and IF Palmer can hold it down, and IF Gordon/Cook are an elite 1-2 at RB, and IF Luck comes back strong to make Moncrief a reliable WR3, and IF you can find a better TE (week 1-3 should be big for Fleener) then you have a shot.

thats a lot of its. 

Not trying to be negative - just my knee-jerk reaction to this team. Good luck! 

 

[dagman]

Clear concern about health at QB with an ancient & fragile Palmer (he'll stay on the field but his production seems to suffer as the hits pile up), and Luck's shoulder...really leaves you thin there. 

RB is also a bit thin - I'm not a fan of keeping AP, as that situation is a mess. Could work out for you with an Ingram injury, but betting on a 30+ yr old AP in a RBBC as your RB3 is a gamble. Riddick should be a weekly BYE or flex if PPR.  But still thin at RB. Hopefully Cook pans out (I own him as well) 

receivers are also a little weak - Cooks will have some monster games when Brady gets his head right. He had a solid game & was targeted deep several times. Not all defenses are the Chiefs. And I love Parker, but more as a WR3-4. Moncrief is scary without Luck, and after that you're pretty thin.

TE - yeah.

With the right breaks I'd give this team a 40% chance?  There are holes at every position. I like some of your players and IF Palmer can hold it down, and IF Gordon/Cook are an elite 1-2 at RB, and IF Luck comes back strong to make Moncrief a reliable WR3, and IF you can find a better TE (week 1-3 should be big for Fleener) then you have a shot.

thats a lot of its. 

Not trying to be negative - just my knee-jerk reaction to this team. Good luck! 

Peterson is in lieu of a 16th round pick.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Peterson is in lieu of a 16th round pick.

Ok, that's pretty cheap/understandable. 

Still less than ideal as a RB3/4, and something I'd work to address. 

The challenge is I'm not seeing the depth needed to trade for an upgrade. Seeing your QB & RBs i'd expected to see you stacked at WR. Unfortunately that's not the case either.

best of luck to you this year - like i said, with the right breaks it could work out. 

Is Clay available on the WW? If so he'd be a nice pickup for after week 4 when Fleener loses receptions to Snead. 

 

[dagman]

Ok, that's pretty cheap/understandable. 

Still less than ideal as a RB3/4, and something I'd work to address. 

The challenge is I'm not seeing the depth needed to trade for an upgrade. Seeing your QB & RBs i'd expected to see you stacked at WR. Unfortunately that's not the case either.

best of luck to you this year - like i said, with the right breaks it could work out. 

Is Clay available on the WW? If so he'd be a nice pickup for after week 4 when Fleener loses receptions to Snead. 

Riddick will more than likely split #3 RB duties with Peterson unless Peterson explodes to 2014 form. Riddick is one of the top receiving backs in Fantasy and should serve nicely as a bye week/flex spot starter.Clay is available and a possibility and so is Njoku, both of which I will be closely monitoring for targets early to see if they are viable replacements. 
I'm thinking Thomas may be a legitimate sleeper as Cutler loves to target his TEs, especially in the RZ and he has Gace has OC who he had with Thomas in Denver. I'm strictly looking at Palmer as my fill-in until Luck is healthy. I'll also be keeping an eye on Kizer to see if he becomes the second coming of Otto Graham. 
I feel pretty comfortable at RB as I have two every-week starters who aren't in RBsBC. 
I'm hoping Moncrief has the breakout year that's expected and beyond that, I'll just look for that waiver pickup that surprises everyone, concentrating on early targeting information. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Riddick will more than likely split #3 RB duties with Peterson unless Peterson explodes to 2014 form. Riddick is one of the top receiving backs in Fantasy and should serve nicely as a bye week/flex spot starter.Clay is available and a possibility and so is Njoku, both of which I will be closely monitoring for targets early to see if they are viable replacements. 
I'm thinking Thomas may be a legitimate sleeper as Cutler loves to target his TEs, especially in the RZ and he has Gace has OC who he had with Thomas in Denver. I'm strictly looking at Palmer as my fill-in until Luck is healthy. I'll also be keeping an eye on Kizer to see if he becomes the second coming of Otto Graham. 
I feel pretty comfortable at RB as I have two every-week starters who aren't in RBsBC. 
I'm hoping Moncrief has the breakout year that's expected and beyond that, I'll just look for that waiver pickup that surprises everyone, concentrating on early targeting information. 

 Based on Clays preseason targets, I would make the move now. Chances are very good he will be claimed after week one. He was peppered with passes and the bills whack depth at wide receiver. If Taylor is going to be at all successful, Clay may well catch 5 to 8 balls per game. 

 I am not as optimistic about Peterson regaining 2014 form. Even if he does, Ingram is a very solid back in the rookie is going to heat up a significant amount of carries as well. That is clearly an RBBC. 

 I also like Riddick a lot, but he is in a split time share with Abdullah, and he's coming off of surgery to both wrists.

 And I assumed Palmer was a fill-in until that comes back… My biggest concern is the lock will not come all the way back. That it has taken so long for his shoulder to heal is a big red flag to me. 

 Moncrief's break out was expected last year. I was one of those guys that was super high on him. Unfortunately, with the craptastic  colts offense of line, Moncrief  simply could not be utilized the way his skill set allows because luck never have the time to throw deep to him.  So I am much lower on Moncrief this year than I was last. I would much rather have him as a wide receiver four or five that has a wide receiver three. 

 But since I don't know what the rest of the teams in your league look like, it's really hard to say whether your contender not. Based on what I see, I'm not that optimistic about your squad as it exists. 

 You asked for opinions… That's mine.  

 

[dagman]

 Based on Clays preseason targets, I would make the move now. Chances are very good he will be claimed after week one. He was peppered with passes and the bills whack depth at wide receiver. If Taylor is going to be at all successful, Clay may well catch 5 to 8 balls per game. 

 I am not as optimistic about Peterson regaining 2014 form. Even if he does, Ingram is a very solid back in the rookie is going to heat up a significant amount of carries as well. That is clearly an RBBC. 

 I also like Riddick a lot, but he is in a split time share with Abdullah, and he's coming off of surgery to both wrists.

 And I assumed Palmer was a fill-in until that comes back… My biggest concern is the lock will not come all the way back. That it has taken so long for his shoulder to heal is a big red flag to me. 

 Moncrief's break out was expected last year. I was one of those guys that was super high on him. Unfortunately, with the craptastic  colts offense of line, Moncrief  simply could not be utilized the way his skill set allows because luck never have the time to throw deep to him.  So I am much lower on Moncrief this year than I was last. I would much rather have him as a wide receiver four or five that has a wide receiver three. 

 But since I don't know what the rest of the teams in your league look like, it's really hard to say whether your contender not. Based on what I see, I'm not that optimistic about your squad as it exists. 

 You asked for opinions… That's mine.  

these are the other rosters in my league. 

http://www72.myfantasyleague.com/2017/options?L=33628&O=07

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

these are the other rosters in my league. 

http://www72.myfantasyleague.com/2017/options?L=33628&O=07

 I'll take a look a little later today when I have time 

 

[daddo39]

Doesn't look terrible to me for a 12 team. looking at your league you guys are all fairly even IMO and as anyone knows who's been doing FF for any amount of time, it isn't an exact science. Good luck

 

[uofmfan28]

Could be a good team, but I think a lot of things have to go your way.  You have quite a few upside guys, but outside of Gordon not a proven commodity from last season.  I love parker, cooks, and cook this year and think fleener could be decent. I'm not a fan of moncrief or peterson this year (owned moncrief last year, so I'm probably still bitter, lol). And love john Brown, but can you trust his health.  Hopefully luck comes back strong (I drafted him too in a 16 team league).  Best of luck!

 

[motoclube]

I liked you team. Luck is a good pick at 6th. Palmer has an easy early schedule. You have two very good running backs (Cook/Gordon). I think you need to uprade your WR corps. I don't like Fleener and Thomas. Kicker and DST are very good.