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Am I crazy to draft Josh Allen with the first pick? (1 Viewer)

MWilky

Footballguy
In 99% of leagues, I know this would be crazy. We have a 10-team snake draft in a league where QBs get 6 pts for td passes and runs. The top 3 QBs have been taken in the first two rounds for two years in a row. I usually take the 8th or 9th QB, but the last two champs have built decent teams with one of the top two, early-round QBs. I think Allen, Mahomes, and Herbert will be gone before my 2nd pick. My idea is to skip the #1 RB and try to create a fear among the early QB drafters. If I can get two or three others to take a QB, then decent players will slide to me for picks 20 and 21. Knowing my league, a run on QB's could totally mess up some others' game plans. There is value in that too! Convince me I'm wrong, draft is Wednesday the 31st!
 
You're wrong, but not for the reason you think.

You don't draft Allen #1. You trade down to where you're still sure you can draft Allen, plus whatever you can tack on. Given that Taylor is the near-unanimous #1, you ought to be able to collect a hefty price for trading down this year.

(BTW, I'm assuming this is not a SF or 2QB league)
 
You're wrong, but not for the reason you think.

You don't draft Allen #1. You trade down to where you're still sure you can draft Allen, plus whatever you can tack on. Given that Taylor is the near-unanimous #1, you ought to be able to collect a hefty price for trading down this year.

(BTW, I'm assuming this is not a SF or 2QB league)
Hey Keith, I like your thinking. Unfortunately, this league picks their draft spot by virtue of their finish the year prior. Trading down would be hard because folks chose their spot. Weird rule, I'm not a fan...but it is the way it is done.
 
You're wrong, but not for the reason you think.

You don't draft Allen #1. You trade down to where you're still sure you can draft Allen, plus whatever you can tack on. Given that Taylor is the near-unanimous #1, you ought to be able to collect a hefty price for trading down this year.

(BTW, I'm assuming this is not a SF or 2QB league)
Hey Keith, I like your thinking. Unfortunately, this league picks their draft spot by virtue of their finish the year prior. Trading down would be hard because folks chose their spot. Weird rule, I'm not a fan...but it is the way it is done.
This shouldn't preclude you from trading individual picks instead of draft positions. But if the culture of your league isn't to trade picks, can you float a future trade possibility with a few fellow owners prior to the draft? You may not specifically land Allen, but getting one of Allen/Herbert/Mahomes should be feasible
 
Bad idea. You mentioned 3 QBs are generally taken in the first two rounds. Does you taking Allen at 1.01 suddenly make 5-6 QBs drafted? Very doubtful imo. I don’t think it will impact the draft in any meaningful way…..other than allowing the 1.02 guy to take Taylor. I’m sure they will be grateful.
 
I would say if you want Allen then you have to take him at 1.01 because it doesn't sound like he will make it back to you. The fact that all QB TD's are 6 pts is actually a little bump down for running QB's like Allen. They lose the rushing TD benefit. It doesn't really change the overall QB value though. They are all still the same relative to each other.

Bottom line is if you want Allen you have to take him then. You shouldn't make your pick based on hoping the rest of the league does X because you did Y. That never works the way you had hoped.

For me, I wouldn't do it in a1 QB league but that doesn't mean you shouldn't. In the end RB's have more injury risk so taking Allen really is a "safer" pick over Taylor. There will be decent RB's left for you so it won't cripple your season. I say have fun and take the guy you want.
 

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