Am I crazy? (1 Viewer)

[Shiver44]

That LaDainian Tomlinson is not an elite option this year. Before I get to it; I am in a keeper league. My particular league, rewards good drafting. The way they do it is simple, where you draft a player, that's the round you sacrifice next year if you keep him. Obviously, I took Tomlinson in the first round last year.

That said, I am not filled with confidence about Tomlinson this upcoming year. Whether it's the young QB play, the meh O-Line, or the fact that Tomlinson has slowed down in recent years or that he is a very old 28 at that, as in over 2000 touches. He also failed me down the stretch. However, "Conventional" wisdom suggests I keep LaDainian Tomlinson, regardless. Then again, contrary to my own opinion, I went with "Conventional" wisdom, and took Tomlinson over Alexander.

Now I will present to the Fantasy Football nation what I am mulling, in my mind. Another owner has the Running Back, I truly cherish, Steven "Action" Jackson. Every time he's had more than 20 carries, something few and far between under Martz, he put up crazy numbers.

2004

26 Carries, 119 Yards

24 Carries, 148 Yards and 1 Touchdown

2005

25 Carries, 179 Yards and 1 Touchdown

25 Carries, 110 Yards and 1 Touchdown

Only four times in two years! But when he does get the rock, he was a 230 pound man-beast! Now, out is pass-happy Martz, in is Linehan. Who will employ a balanced attack, and give Jackson the touches he needs. Best of all, for the owned that has him, it only costs him a 3rd round draft selection!

Finally, answer me this; Am I crazy to think of trading LaDainian Tomlinson (28 Years Old, 1st round pick) for Steven Jackson (23 Years Old, 3rd round pick)? Not only would I get the Back, I prefer for this upcoming season, but i'd get my first round pick back (6th overall).

Lend me your voice! Is it reasonable to expect Jackson to out-produce Tomlinson next season? I really don't care for "advice," it's my call and I will do what I think is best. I already know, what I think, now I want to know two things;

1. I am seeing if I am in the minority, that is, down on Tomlinson.

2. Where is the thin line between smart outside the box thinking, and out-coaching?

 

[Doug Drinen]

Lend me your voice! Is it reasonable to expect Jackson to out-produce Tomlinson next season?

Not really, but Jackson doesn't have to outproduce Tomlinson for this to be a good deal for you.** - if I understand correctly

 

[MLBrandow]

well, Jackson will not out-produce LT, but I can see LT not being a stud this year...

that said, I would not be absolutely shocked to see him have another 100recept year.

 

[Shiver44]

i think you're crazy for not considering LT an elite talent, but i don't think you're crazy for considering your draft options. If you look at each RB + the pick you will get by keeping that RB, both options could look good.

You also might want to look at LT's games when he's gotten 25+ carries

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I don't think you're carzy considering the draft picks involved. Actually I'd prefer Jackson and keep the first round pick. It's not a slam dunk that the other guy will accept.

Also sometimes you have to go with your gut. The final RB rankings will look nothing like the preseason rankings.

 

[cantstop1999]

i think LT is going to have an outstanding year and will always be a stud. they will lean on him more and he will deliever.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

i think you're crazy for not considering LT an elite talent, but i don't think you're crazy for considering your draft options.  If you look at each RB + the pick you will get by keeping that RB, both options could look good.

You also might want to look at LT's games when he's gotten 25+ carries

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

my answers to your pointspoint 1 - This years schedule is way easier than last year.

point 2 - The D will be better, and the oline depth is better. They have the best TE in the league and two solid veteran WR's and a good young third wide. The only real issue is Rivers, some believe he is an upgrade. I expect LT to appraoch 80 catches.

point 3 - Cheap handcuff in Turner, who will produce when given the chance.

IIRC - during the FFL playoffs, he played hurt and while his numbers were not great, he still got 80 yds a game with a cracked rib.

His production will be elite. The situation there is fine.

 

[aDingoAteMyBaby]

LT is the top option this year in redraft. Heck, I'd take him #1 in keeper also. He may not get 25 carries each game, but he does get a bunch of receptions (and an occasionaly passing TD). In PPR leagues, he outproduces everyone because of this. The last time he was on a team with a really poor QB (Brees in 2003), he had 100 receptions.

There's no way you can consider LT anything but an elite player this year. Don't over-think this kind of thing.

 

[cantstop1999]

i think you're crazy for not considering LT an elite talent, but i don't think you're crazy for considering your draft options.  If you look at each RB + the pick you will get by keeping that RB, both options could look good.

You also might want to look at LT's games when he's gotten 25+ carries

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

my answers to your pointspoint 1 - This years schedule is way easier than last year.

point 2 - The D will be better, and the oline depth is better. They have the best TE in the league and two solid veteran WR's and a good young third wide. The only real issue is Rivers, some believe he is an upgrade. I expect LT to appraoch 80 catches.

point 3 - Cheap handcuff in Turner, who will produce when given the chance.

IIRC - during the FFL playoffs, he played hurt and while his numbers were not great, he still got 80 yds a game with a cracked rib.

His production will be elite. The situation there is fine.

 

[Shiver44]

my answers to your pointspoint 1 - This years schedule is way easier than last year.

Not unless you factor in, probable defensive improvements. For example; Cleveland "looks" like an easy game. But they've added a legit Nose Tackle, along with a vastly improved Linebacking corp. Also, on Ultimate SOS on this very site, San Diego has the toughest schedule for Running Backs.

point 3 - Cheap handcuff in Turner, who will produce when given the chance. IIRC - he played hurt and while his numbers were not great, he still got 80 yds a game with a cracked rib.

That's the problem, he gets hurt a lot, but plays through it. But his fantasy numbers drop off the face of the earth, both in '04 and '05. For example, in the Fantasy Players, he scored; 8 Points11 Points8 PointsI lost, by the way. At 28 years old, with his workload, let's just say i'm not convinced in the slightest that these nagging injuries, (in '04 his YPC dropped to 3.9 because of a groin injury), are going to go away.

 

[Weiner Dog]

You're simply over-analyzing. Don't make FF harder than it is.

 

[Gandalf]

You're simply over-analyzing. Don't make FF harder than it is.

Keep it simple. I agreed with the 3 points above as well. If really concerned about LT getting nicked up then just draft Turner. Done. End of concern. That's what I'm planning to do anyway.

 

[ChampBailey24]

Yeah, I'd keep SJax. The way I see it is :

LT

3rd round pick

for

SJax

1st round pick

I like the latter better.

 

[Shiver44]

Right now what is better;

(My Current Keepers)

LaDainian Tomlinson *1st*

Larry Fitzgerald *7th*

10th overall pick

(My Potential Keepers)

Steven Jackson *3rd*

Larry Fitzgerald *7th*

6th overall pick

10th overall pick

This would be my options;

RB

Shaun Alexander (this owner had LJ as well, except with a lot better value)

Edgerrin James

Willis McGahee

Domanick Davis

Reggie Bush

Kevin Jones

Chester Taylor

WR

Terrell Owens

Torry Holt

Chad Johnson

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Wouldn't you say I could create a better overall team, with those two picks to tandem with Jackson and Fitz? I think so.

 

[ChampBailey24]

I'd definetely keep SJax.

 

[Shiver44]

I'd definetely keep SJax.

I don't have him, i'd have to trade Tomlinson for him. Which, depending on whom i've asked ranges from;"You're F'N insane"

to

"That's a smart move"

Then again, what other people say about it, isn't going to sway me, i've already figured out in my mind what I think is the better option. Then I will either be a "genius" or a "fool."

 

[lebowski]

Yeah, I'd keep SJax. The way I see it is :

LT

3rd round pick

for

SJax

1st round pick

I like the latter better.

But if this is a keeper league there is not the elite talent availible in the first round.

 

[Shiver44]

Yeah, I'd keep SJax. The way I see it is :

LT

3rd round pick

for

SJax

1st round pick

I like the latter better.

But if this is a keeper league there is not the elite talent availible in the first round.

See Post, three spots above your post to see what other options there are.

 

[Shiver44]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Drop him already.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Right now what is better;

(My Current Keepers)

LaDainian Tomlinson *1st*

Larry Fitzgerald *7th*

10th overall pick

(My Potential Keepers)

Steven Jackson *3rd*

Larry Fitzgerald *7th*

6th overall pick

10th overall pick

This would be my options;

RB

Shaun Alexander (this owner had LJ as well, except with a lot better value)

Edgerrin James

Willis McGahee

Domanick Davis

Reggie Bush

Kevin Jones

Chester Taylor

WR

Terrell Owens

Torry Holt

Chad Johnson

Marvin Harrison

Randy Moss

Wouldn't you say I could create a better overall team, with those two picks to tandem with Jackson and Fitz? I think so.

It's pretty close, but i'd take Jackson + the tier 1 WR you'll get with pick #6 over LT.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I think Jackson plus a first-rounder should be worth more than Tomlinson plus a third-rounder, if those are your options. (You have to try to figure out who will be available at your draft slot in the first round.)

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;

1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

I disagree with the above reasoning.1. Much easier schedule than last year.

2. Improvement in supporting cast, IMO. (McNeil, Manumaleuna, Raushaun Woods, not to mention Rivers. And more experience in Hardwick, Dielman, Olivea, Vincent Jackson.)

3. The fact that he was injured for the past two years, IMO, shows what kind of upside he has if he can stay healthy all year. It's not like he has a frail build. He's a tough kid with a durable body that had some bad luck in each of the past two seasons.

 

[SoloMatisse]

what did Stephen Jackson do down the stretch last year? If he finished strong and carried teams to titles, Id be inclined to agree with your logic. As it stands, he did squat down stretch, and youre absolutely NUTS to consider not keeping Tomlinson.

 

[nickopher]

Weren't you on another FF site with this very topic? What? You didn't get the answer you wanted so now you need more advice?

BY the way. I would trade LT2 and pick up Portis with your first round pick. That way you have 2 stud backs instead of one.

Lucky for me, I have both LT2 and S. Jax in my keeper league.

 

[thehobbit]

LT is a stud, period.

The fact some projections have LJ and SA for over 20 TDs is nutz. To expect a RB to product over 20 TDs in a given year is not a realistic project regardless of how many TDs they had prior. LT on the other hand may not be the top back this year, but is a lock for double digit TDs and most likely mid to high teens. LT is likely going to be a hall of famer which means a long career still. He is a warrior in the fact that last 2 season although failed fantasy owners in the stretch due to nagging injuries, he played through it with no serious aftereffects.

As for Steven Jackson, I think he is getting way over-hyped. Who is the star of St. Louis? Tory Holt! Not Jackson. The offense is still going to be highly effective in the air, and remeber although it may be a more balance offense than last year, that isn't saying that its simply the Jackson show. St.L is still going to likely play from behind in the late quarters which will reduce Jackson overall carries. They are in a division that has high potent air attacks in the likes of Seattle and 'zona.

Final thought, Who is more likely to fail when it counts

Week 14

LT vs Denver (LT wins here)

SJ vs Chicago

Week 15

LT vs KC

SJ vs Oakland (SJ wins here)

Week 16

SD vs Seattle(Sea who may have home-field lock away by this time)

SJ vs Washington

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Umm... what?!

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Geez LT is 28 now? I could swear this kid just came into the league!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Geez LT is 28 now? I could swear this kid just came into the league!

He just turned 27.

 

[Synthesizer]

Yes, Tomlinson is an elite option and will continue to be an elite option for at least a few more years. And yes, this is a pretty poorly disguised AC forum question.

 

[massraider]

(You have to try to figure out who will be available at your draft slot in the first round.)

Quoted for importance.

 

[Cookiemonster]

One point that nobody has brought up yet is the coaching behind the scenes. Martz has been mentioned, but nobody has brought up Linehan who, for RB purposes is an improvement. More importantly though, I see Marty-ball coming to an end in S.D. It's no secret that Marty and the ownership are at odds and with a young QB and Gates I expect the S.D. offense to become more pass heavy as LT ages and Schott leaves. This, along with the extra two rounds of pick gained leave you with a S.Jax (whom I like as much as LT this year, let alone going forward), and Fitz with the ability to draft C.Johnson and Bush. You would have a starting core of studs that are VERY young and will last you a very long time.

 

[Mooks77]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Did you see where Jackson ranked on that consistancy scoring system? 17th. Some of the guys that ranked above LT were Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and Domanick Davis. You wouldn't take any of those guys over LT. Consistancy ranking is a nice tool if you have two players that are closely ranked and can't decide which player to take, but I wouldn't use it to justify Jackson + a 1st round pick over LT.

Did you post your league scoring anywhere? If you count PPR then there is no way I would do this trade. I bet LT has more than the 50 catches he had last year.

One more thing. Only 4 RBs had a touchdown in at least 10 games. Edge, Alexander, LJ, and LT.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Did you see where Jackson ranked on that consistancy scoring system? 17th. Some of the guys that ranked above LT were Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and Domanick Davis. You wouldn't take any of those guys over LT. Consistancy ranking is a nice tool if you have two players that are closely ranked and can't decide which player to take, but I wouldn't use it to justify Jackson + a 1st round pick over LT.

Did you post your league scoring anywhere? If you count PPR then there is no way I would do this trade. I bet LT has more than the 50 catches he had last year.

Jackson was concidered the best recieving RB in his draft (K.Jones, C.Perry) and as a Steelers fan, I was dissapointed (at the time) that Ben was drafted and not S.Jackson.

 

[Jon_Moore]

You are crazy. Tomlinson is an elite option. Period. Before Brees and Gates broke out in 2004, he was a top RB. No qb, no receiving threats, crappy o-line...still an elite RB. I don't see how the situation can get to where this guy isn't a beast.

I'd overpay like crazy to get him in any of my keepers or dynasties, but none of his owners are selling. Oddly enough, those teams usually seem to run deep into the fantasy playoffs...

 

[Gandalf]

I don't think you're insane for wanting to move LT and 3rd rounder for SJax and a 1st. I wouldn't do it, but I can see your logic. That said, if you honestly believe--and it seems like you do by the points you keep raising--that LT is not a top RB anymore because he's inconsistent or whatever, then you are lost. You are choosing to over emphasize the negatives. Every player has them. I could sit here and list all the concerns with Larry Johnson (o-line aging, new coaching staff, etc) or Shaun Alexander (just got a big contract, getting older), but they are still stud RBs. You can talk yourself out of any player if you really tried. Instead, try to base your decision on whether you're getting enough value for LT who is a stud RB, not that his career is winding down at 27 years old (birthdate: 06/23/1979), not 28 which you originally posted.

You need to remember how good LT actually is. Go to youtube or some other internet site and pull down some video of his running ability during his career. The guy is flat out amazing.

Edit: I did it for you... Here's some links of LT. The first from the 2005-06 season. The second is LT dominating Ty Law.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dGQiEGv0dQ...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhgcI5or5ck...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgYFMUV04cE...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH7QR7NWKLU...ian%20tomlinson

 

[Sabertooth]

i think LT is going to have an outstanding year and will always be a stud. they will lean on him more and he will deliever.

Even in 2020? Always???

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Did you see where Jackson ranked on that consistancy scoring system? 17th. Some of the guys that ranked above LT were Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and Domanick Davis. You wouldn't take any of those guys over LT. Consistancy ranking is a nice tool if you have two players that are closely ranked and can't decide which player to take, but I wouldn't use it to justify Jackson + a 1st round pick over LT.

Did you post your league scoring anywhere? If you count PPR then there is no way I would do this trade. I bet LT has more than the 50 catches he had last year.

One more thing. Only 4 RBs had a touchdown in at least 10 games. Edge, Alexander, LJ, and LT.

The consistency ranking is kinda meaningless. DD & Dillon ranked more consistent than LT? Yeah right.

 

[nygiants56]

i think you're crazy for not considering LT an elite talent, but i don't think you're crazy for considering your draft options.  If you look at each RB + the pick you will get by keeping that RB, both options could look good.

You also might want to look at LT's games when he's gotten 25+ carries

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

failed to reach just 76 yards rushing in 9 games last year. receptions have been down each of past two seasons..

 

[Mungo Burrows]

(You have to try to figure out who will be available at your draft slot in the first round.)

Quoted for importance.

Right. You listed who you thought the non-keepers would be, but which teams are using their first rounders for keepers, particularly picks 1-5, but also the ones between your 1.6 and 1.10? How many of those players will be gone when you pick at 1.6. (e.g., Who is 1.5 keeping that they think is better than SA?)If all 5 people ahead of you are using their first rounders on keepers, the I think SA+SJax is probably preferable to LT+3rd rounder. If you would have to take Edge or Willis, or a WR at 6, I doubt I would do it. I don't agree with your take that LT is going to slip and SJ is simultaneously going to explode. Just looking at the stats you posted, he has 4 games with over 25 carries: No multi-TD games, and an average of ~135yds a game. I don't think Linehan will give him an average of 25 carries a game (400/season) so if that is his upside, I don't like it. LT gives you reliable yards and solid TD production already, and as others have noted, these were probably slightly down years due to nagging injuries and such.

One thing I don't understand: Is there a time limit on how long you can keep guys and does it factor in to how long you'll be keeping either of these players? I don't see how SA hasn't been a perennial keeper at whatever round he was taken the year he took over for Ricky Watters. For him to be a first rounder, someone would have had to drop him back into the pool at some point since that year.

 

[Banger]

yes, you are crazy.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

is this a free yahoo league. I always like to know in these situations.

 

[Synthesizer]

i think you're crazy for not considering LT an elite talent, but i don't think you're crazy for considering your draft options.  If you look at each RB + the pick you will get by keeping that RB, both options could look good.

You also might want to look at LT's games when he's gotten 25+ carries

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

failed to reach just 76 yards rushing in 9 games last year. receptions have been down each of past two seasons..

What's so special about 76 yards? Oh I know, you picked that number because he had games of 76, 75, and 72 yards.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

i think you're crazy for not considering LT an elite talent, but i don't think you're crazy for considering your draft options.  If you look at each RB + the pick you will get by keeping that RB, both options could look good.

You also might want to look at LT's games when he's gotten 25+ carries

I think he is an elite Running Back, even best in the league. But the situation in San Diego is such, where I do not forsee tremendous Fantasy production, this year at least. Everything is wrong with LT's situation this year;1. Difficult Schedule.

2. A decline in Supporting Cast.

3. His nagging injuries have been somewhat problematic to my team, costing me the league championship last year.

failed to reach just 76 yards rushing in 9 games last year. receptions have been down each of past two seasons..

:horrible postingoints 1 & 2 are wrong.

While I do not doubt LT's nagging rib injury caused you to loose your title game, without him I doubt your even in position to win it.

LT's receptions will be much HIGHER this year than the past two.

 

[pigskinliquors]

Assuming that the pick is forfeited in the Keeper spot here is how this could play out. Using FBG's projections (please use at your own risk):

LT = 306 points

S-Jax = 228 points

With the 6th pick in the 3rd round you could end up with somebody in the Foster/Taylor/Bell tier = approximately 165 points.

IF you keep the 6th pick you would end up with somebody in the R. Brown/Westy/Cadilac tier = approximately 203 points

Option 1: LT + Taylor'ish = 306 + 165 or 471 points

Option 2: S-Jax + Westy'ish = 228 + 203 or 431 points

Since 471 > 431; I'd keep LT IF I were using FBG's numbers

This highlights the importance of getting studs and holding on to them no matter what the temptation is. Now, if you think S-Jax is a future stud, you may want to make the trade, but looking too far into the future for a Keep just 1 league is usually a large gamble. I'm a firm believer in living for the day in such leagues.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Did you see where Jackson ranked on that consistancy scoring system? 17th. Some of the guys that ranked above LT were Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and Domanick Davis. You wouldn't take any of those guys over LT. Consistancy ranking is a nice tool if you have two players that are closely ranked and can't decide which player to take, but I wouldn't use it to justify Jackson + a 1st round pick over LT.

Did you post your league scoring anywhere? If you count PPR then there is no way I would do this trade. I bet LT has more than the 50 catches he had last year.

One more thing. Only 4 RBs had a touchdown in at least 10 games. Edge, Alexander, LJ, and LT.

The consistency ranking is kinda meaningless. DD & Dillon ranked more consistent than LT? Yeah right.

Well yes, technically Dillon & DD are more "consistent". That still doesn't give them the explosive factor of an LT who can put up a whopping 50 points in a given week. Every RB is going to have a bad game or two. Of course, when you have top games in the 40s during the year, it's going to make you look less consistent because you are falling from the 40s to a below 10 score as opposed to falling from the 20s to a below 10 score.

LT needs to be compared to other RBs in his scoring tier, THEN talk about consistency.

Jackson may be more "consistent" at 13 PPG, but LT is still getting me over 18PPG wiwth at least 15 TDs a year. We can't say for sure that Jackson would maintain that same consistency if he were able to reach the elite tier.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Did you see where Jackson ranked on that consistancy scoring system? 17th. Some of the guys that ranked above LT were Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and Domanick Davis. You wouldn't take any of those guys over LT. Consistancy ranking is a nice tool if you have two players that are closely ranked and can't decide which player to take, but I wouldn't use it to justify Jackson + a 1st round pick over LT.

Did you post your league scoring anywhere? If you count PPR then there is no way I would do this trade. I bet LT has more than the 50 catches he had last year.

One more thing. Only 4 RBs had a touchdown in at least 10 games. Edge, Alexander, LJ, and LT.

The consistency ranking is kinda meaningless. DD & Dillon ranked more consistent than LT? Yeah right.

Well yes, technically Dillon & DD are more "consistent". That still doesn't give them the explosive factor of an LT who can put up a whopping 50 points in a given week. Every RB is going to have a bad game or two. Of course, when you have top games in the 40s during the year, it's going to make you look less consistent because you are falling from the 40s to a below 10 score as opposed to falling from the 20s to a below 10 score.

LT needs to be compared to other RBs in his scoring tier, THEN talk about consistency.

Jackson may be more "consistent" at 13 PPG, but LT is still getting me over 18PPG wiwth at least 15 TDs a year. We can't say for sure that Jackson would maintain that same consistency if he were able to reach the elite tier.

IIRC - LT was ranked #1 in thier consistentcy rankings after the 04 season.

 

[MCG321]

Am I crazy?, Tomlinson is not an elite option

In a nutshell, YES!However, if you're confident in the players available for the 6th spot, you still might want to do the trade. I'd keep LT, though.

 

[dpeease]

At the end of 2004, I moved W McGahee and my #1 pick in the redraft for LT in a keeper league where you can keep 5 players. The owner who got McGahee drafted Caddy with the #1 pick last year (I was able to draft LJ). Some of the owners in my league thought I got over on him and others thought I got raped by making the deal.

Using our scoring model LT finished with a 24.19 pt average, W McGahee 13.25 & Caddy 11.69.

At the end of last year I lost in finals but won the overall points title.

My advice as others have stated is to always try and trade for and hold on to top 3 players at their position (especially Rbs) until they prove you wrong, get hurt, or land in jail. Nothing beats having a player who you can plug into your lineup and not have to worry about. LT is one of those players.

 

[cstu]

LT just turned 27 a couple weeks ago...

 

[Adam Sommer]

LT is a stud, period.

Unless you get Larry Johnson or Alexander with that 1st rounder, then the answer to your original question is yes, you are crazy.A stud player is one who performs regardless.

That means even under a tough schedule, he has a big game. Even if his QB is a joke, he has a big game. A stud is a Joe Montana, the bigger the game, the bigger the problems, the bigger the stage, the bigger the results.....LT is that type of guy.

Personally, I think Rivers will manage okay, will rely on passing to LT more than Brees did, and Shotty will run more to compensate. LT will have a fine year.