Am I crazy? (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

LT is the top option this year in redraft. Heck, I'd take him #1 in keeper also. He may not get 25 carries each game, but he does get a bunch of receptions (and an occasionaly passing TD). In PPR leagues, he outproduces everyone because of this. The last time he was on a team with a really poor QB (Brees in 2003), he had 100 receptions.

There's no way you can consider LT anything but an elite player this year. Don't over-think this kind of thing.

I agree with this a lot. I don't think you're wrong for eventually thinking of the future, but I think you would be wise to not do it this year for several reasons:1. LT's value is low(er) right now because most think the way you do about Rivers. Fact is that the Chargers staff get paid to do what they do because they are some of the best in the nation, and they obviously had so much faith in Rivers that they were willing to let a accomplished, proven-winner vet go to give him a chance.

2. SJax is an unknown right now, at least as far as being elite. You're right to point out his 20+ carry games were awesome. Trouble is, everyone else knows this as well. I can understand why he is such an intriguing prospect, but I think that he will fall just a little short of everyone's expectations this year, and you'll be able to get him for cheaper next year,, and he'll still only be a third round pick. conversely, I think that LT is in a great position to outperform everyone's expectations this year. Not a good buy-low sell-high scenario.

It all depends what hype you beleive. I personally don't buy the Phillip Rivers fantasy-death hype and also don't A) beleive Linehan will always get SJax 20+ carries, and that B) if he does it will translate to consistent production to the tune of 100+ yards and a TD or two every game. My two cents.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Another thing that affected me a lot last year, as a Tomlinson owner, (a proud one at that after the draft). Is he was not consistent, at least, not as his stats would make you believe. The Huddle.com has a Consistency ranking, where Tomlinson only gained either 100 yards or 1 touchdown in 69% of his games, only 11th in the NFL. When he was on, then it was great, but more often than not he wasn't spectacular. His fantasy stat line on Tomlinson; *my scoring system*

Points:

13

17

55

36

25

42

6

17

46

17

51

15

8

11

8

Weeks 3-6 he was consistently great, the rest of the season, not so much.

Did you see where Jackson ranked on that consistancy scoring system? 17th. Some of the guys that ranked above LT were Priest Holmes, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, and Domanick Davis. You wouldn't take any of those guys over LT. Consistancy ranking is a nice tool if you have two players that are closely ranked and can't decide which player to take, but I wouldn't use it to justify Jackson + a 1st round pick over LT.

Did you post your league scoring anywhere? If you count PPR then there is no way I would do this trade. I bet LT has more than the 50 catches he had last year.

One more thing. Only 4 RBs had a touchdown in at least 10 games. Edge, Alexander, LJ, and LT.

The consistency ranking is kinda meaningless. DD & Dillon ranked more consistent than LT? Yeah right.

Well yes, technically Dillon & DD are more "consistent". That still doesn't give them the explosive factor of an LT who can put up a whopping 50 points in a given week. Every RB is going to have a bad game or two. Of course, when you have top games in the 40s during the year, it's going to make you look less consistent because you are falling from the 40s to a below 10 score as opposed to falling from the 20s to a below 10 score.

LT needs to be compared to other RBs in his scoring tier, THEN talk about consistency.

Jackson may be more "consistent" at 13 PPG, but LT is still getting me over 18PPG wiwth at least 15 TDs a year. We can't say for sure that Jackson would maintain that same consistency if he were able to reach the elite tier.

IIRC - LT was ranked #1 in thier consistentcy rankings after the 04 season.

Superstud. Plus I remember reading some research that showed consistency is inconsistent from year to year anyways...

 

[Snotbubbles]

That's the problem, he gets hurt a lot, but plays through it. But his fantasy numbers drop off the face of the earth, both in '04 and '05. For example, in the Fantasy Players, he scored; 8 Points11 Points8 PointsI lost, by the way. At 28 years old, with his workload, let's just say i'm not convinced in the slightest that these nagging injuries, (in '04 his YPC dropped to 3.9 because of a groin injury), are going to go away

His production in 2004 was just fine, even playing with injury.2004Week 14: 130 total yards, 2 TDsWeek 15: 150 total yards, 1 TDWeek 16: 106 total yards, 2 TDsIt's seem to be a common theme on these boards that most people think LT has had back to back poor playoff stretches. Not true.

 

[BigRed]

Was kinda curious on all that "LT sucks late in the year" thing so I checked - and actually he did better than that in 04 (you're off a week):

Wk 14: 150/1

Wk 15: 106/2

Wk 16: 176/2

And 03 FWIW:

Wk 14: 236/2

Wk 15: 195/2

Wk 16: 99/2

Yeah last year did suck pretty bad (for him), but he's still a safer bet than most RBs on ANY given week. I'll take my chances. Assuming his cost isn't too inflated in our auction draft that is.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Edit: I did it for you... Here's some links of LT. The first from the 2005-06 season. The second is LT dominating Ty Law.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dGQiEGv0dQ...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhgcI5or5ck...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgYFMUV04cE...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH7QR7NWKLU...ian%20tomlinson

Good stuff. The highlights from the 2002 game against the Patriots and the 2003 game against the Browns are simply amazing.

 

[joffer]

Edit:  I did it for you...  Here's some links of LT.  The first from the 2005-06 season.  The second is LT dominating Ty Law.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dGQiEGv0dQ...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhgcI5or5ck...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgYFMUV04cE...ian%20tomlinson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH7QR7NWKLU...ian%20tomlinson

Good stuff. The highlights from the 2002 game against the Patriots and the 2003 game against the Browns are simply amazing.

can't recall anyone who explodes out of a jump stop like him

 

[Gr00vus]

I was a Jackson owner last year and it seemed to me he was dinged up all season long, with many game time decision type fun situations to deal with, and even when he did play there was plenty of reduced role due to injuries. Looking back over the season he may give you a warm fuzzy in your consistency zone, but I can tell you week to week it was tums time when trying to figure out if he would make it into the lineup or not because you really didn't have a solid feel for whether he'd be on the field or not irl. Jackson's rushing style compared to LaDainian's also opens Jackson up to much more abuse. So if you're devaluing LaDainian for health reasons, you're not doing much better by taking Jackson.

Pop quiz, which of the two missed a game last year and two the previous year due to injury? Which of the two has missed exactly 1 game in his entire NFL career?

LaDainian's been a top 4 FF performer for 4 years in a row. Jackson hasn't sniffed it and I didn't see anything last year that says he's about to either.

YOU make the call.

 

[joffer]

LaDainian's been a top 4 FF performer for 4 years in a row. Jackson hasn't sniffed it and I didn't see anything last year that says he's about to either.

RB10 last year while splitting time with a HOFer in an offense where the OC wouldn't run the ball half the time if you put his nuts in a vice?I did

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Which of the two has missed exactly 1 game in his entire NFL career?

But not due to injury. He sat out the week 17 game two years ago because the Chargers had already clinched the division championship.

 

[BigRed]

Pop quiz, which of the two missed a game last year and two the previous year due to injury? Which of the two has missed exactly 1 game in his entire NFL career?

I can live with my RB2 missing 1 1/2 games a year.PS this isn't "Jackson vs LT" which is a dumb comparison anyway.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

1. Difficult Schedule.

1. Much easier schedule than last year.

I understated it. I should have said: easiest schedule in the league.

 

[Shiver44]

Why is that and Ultimate SoS complete opposites?

 

[Gr00vus]

I can live with my RB2 missing 1 1/2 games a year.

That would be fine - if he was actually your #2 back - and if it was just the exactly 1.5 games missed without constant nagging injuries reducing his role, his touches and his PT.But it's not quite that simple is it?

PS this isn't "Jackson vs LT" which is a dumb comparison anyway.

It isn't?

Finally, answer me this; Am I crazy to think of trading LaDainian Tomlinson (28 Years Old, 1st round pick) for Steven Jackson (23 Years Old, 3rd round pick)? Not only would I get the Back, I prefer for this upcoming season, but i'd get my first round pick back (6th overall).

Couild have fooled me.

 

[Gr00vus]

RB10 last year while splitting time with a HOFer in an offense where the OC wouldn't run the ball half the time if you put his nuts in a vice?

Curious, when I look at the year end running back results, Jackson is RB11, 121.20 points behind LaDainian at 196.6. Ladainian was #4 overall in total points for all players, Jackson was about #33. How exactly is that sniffing a top 4 performance? Please to explain, 'cause I'm dying to know. As far as said HOFer and said coach - did not said HOFer put up a bulk of his HOF stats with said coach (whether O coordinator or head coach) in said system? Yet said system was somehow a limitation for Jackson? Hmmmm. And did not said HOFer really "split" time with Jackson because actually Jackson wasn't 100% much of the time? Additionally after actually, you know, WATCHING both players, while Jackson is very good, there's no comparison with Tomlinson, and that will translate into an appreciable difference between their stats. Add to that that Jackson takes much more of a beating with his style AND he's already missed more time to injuries in his first two years than LaDainian has in his first five and I really don't see a favorable comparison for Jackson in any way.But please by all means, everyone continue to sell LaDainian short, I'd love to get him a slot or two lower than he should be.

 

[joffer]

RB10 last year while splitting time with a HOFer in an offense where the OC wouldn't run the ball half the time if you put his nuts in a vice?

Curious, when I look at the year end running back results, Jackson is RB11, 121.20 points behind LaDainian at 196.6. Ladainian was #4 overall in total points for all players, Jackson was about #33. How exactly is that sniffing a top 4 performance? Please to explain, 'cause I'm dying to know. ..

Additionally after actually, you know, WATCHING both players, while Jackson is very good, there's no comparison with Tomlinson, and that will translate into an appreciable difference between their stats. Add to that that Jackson takes much more of a beating with his style AND he's already missed more time to injuries in his first two years than LaDainian has in his first five and I really don't see a favorable comparison for Jackson in any way.

But please by all means, everyone continue to sell LaDainian short, I'd love to get him a slot or two lower than he should be.

i'm not knocking Tomlinson and i'm not comparing the two

As far as said HOFer and said coach - did not said HOFer put up a bulk of his HOF stats with said coach (whether O coordinator or head coach) in said system? Yet said system was somehow a limitation for Jackson?  Hmmmm.  And did not said HOFer really "split" time with Jackson because actually Jackson wasn't 100% much of the time?

and i have no idea what your point is here

 

[joffer]

PS this isn't "Jackson vs LT" which is a dumb comparison anyway.

It isn't?

no, it isn't. not straight up.

 

[Gr00vus]

To Joffer:

My contention:

"LaDainian's been a top 4 FF performer for 4 years in a row. Jackson hasn't sniffed it and I didn't see anything last year that says he's about to either."

Your Response:

"RB10 last year while splitting time with a HOFer in an offense where the OC wouldn't run the ball half the time if you put his nuts in a vice? I did"

I took this to mean you saw something from Jackson that indicates he could/will sniff top 4 overall performance levels, along with excuses as to why he didn't quite make to that level last year. Since Ladainian actually was the #4 overall performer last year, and has been a top 4 overall performer the last 4 years, I figured the comparison was valid in the context of whether Jackson would sniff it. I'm sorry if that wasn't what you were saying.

As for this not being a Tomlinson/Jackson comparison again, I can only reiterate the quote that seems to lay it out in no uncertain terms (bold emphasis mine this time):

Finally, answer me this; Am I crazy to think of trading LaDainian Tomlinson (28 Years Old, 1st round pick) for Steven Jackson (23 Years Old, 3rd round pick)? Not only would I get the Back, I prefer for this upcoming season, but i'd get my first round pick back (6th overall).

To paraphrase - he thinks Jackson will do better than Tomlinson, straight up, this year. So it's actually more than a comparison, it's a statement that Jackson will be better than Tomlinson this year. Doesn't get any clearer than that.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Why is that and Ultimate SoS complete opposites?

Yes what is going on?Someone is wayyyyy off

 

[joffer]

To Joffer:

My contention:

"LaDainian's been a top 4 FF performer for 4 years in a row. Jackson hasn't sniffed it and I didn't see anything last year that says he's about to either."

Your Response:

"RB10 last year while splitting time with a HOFer in an offense where the OC wouldn't run the ball half the time if you put his nuts in a vice? I did"

I took this to mean you saw something from Jackson that indicates he could/will sniff top 4 overall performance levels, along with excuses as to why he didn't quite make to that level last year. Since Ladainian actually was the #4 overall performer last year, and has been a top 4 overall performer the last 4 years, I figured the comparison was valid in the context of whether Jackson would sniff it. I'm sorry if that wasn't what you were saying.

That is what i was saying. that a 2nd year RB, that finished 10th, in a pass happy offense, while splitting time, has a lot of potential for his numbers to increase. I don't have him 4th, I have him 6th, which could be "sniffing" top 4, but now i'm splitting hairs. I agree with you that the point differential to get Jackson inside the top 4 (where LT always is) is significant.

As for this not being a Tomlinson/Jackson comparison again, I can only reiterate the quote that seems to lay it out in no uncertain terms (bold emphasis mine this time):

Finally, answer me this; Am I crazy to think of trading LaDainian Tomlinson (28 Years Old, 1st round pick) for Steven Jackson (23 Years Old, 3rd round pick)? Not only would I get the Back, I prefer for this upcoming season, but i'd get my first round pick back (6th overall).

To paraphrase - he thinks Jackson will do better than Tomlinson, straight up, this year. So it's actually more than a comparison, it's a statement that Jackson will be better than Tomlinson this year. Doesn't get any clearer than that.

obviously it does, because i don't read it that way, and apparently others didn't either. perhaps the OP could state whether he's actually saying he thinks Jackson will finish ahead of LT. I read it as he prefers Jackson + 1st to LT + 3rd.

 

[Wingnut]

Why is that and Ultimate SoS complete opposites?

Yes what is going on?Someone is wayyyyy off

The sporting news SOS is based on overall SOS, while FBG's is position specific. Both are based on projections for this season.For example, the Sporting News' SOS ranks San Diego as having the easiest schedule overall. FBG SOS has San Diego having a tough RB and WR SOS, but they also have SD as having one of the easier QB and DST SOS (SD's QB SOS missed the "red" cut by .1 point, and SD's DST SOS is the "easiest" in the league)

Theyre both based on projections, so its anybodys guess as to which will be more accurate. Id like to see a FBG "Overall SOS" and see what the difference would be.

For the record, the official NFL SOS lists SD as having the 12th easiest schedule in 2006, but its based on 2005 win-loss records, which pretty much mean nothing.