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Bump him up 31pts and he still wasnt a WR1 last year, he would be WR14 and WR15 in PPR (according to FBG's numbers). And aside from TDs, I dont think Brown is guaranteed to match his receptions and/or yardage totals from 2011. See Wallace as an example with how his numbers decreased in both categories from 2010 to 2011.
If Sanders stays healthy (big question at this point), he is far from garbage. If he plays 16 games, he'll put up 45/600 guaranteed which depending on the TDs would make him worth a late round flier.
Right. Garbage was a bit too strong of language. I blame blue moon summer wheat.'Kenny Powers said:
The injuries and their compounding effect are a major concern. I just don't think he's as talented as Brown. Even with the perfect set of circumstances, I don't think he could put up Brown's stats from last season.
If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
Brown came out of Central Michigan (Chippewas) a year early. A 2011 Pro Bowl player and voted team MVP in just his second season. Broke an NFL record. Works hard in practice and carries a healthy winning attitude. Nothing special there ... cough, cough!
I just checked a standard PPR league I was in and filtered the WR results on points scored for the season. Brown was WR25 last year. Sanders and Big Ben will be healthy, but owners expect A Brown's targets to increase. Why is this? There are only so many targets to go around. A good example from last year was Dez, Miles Austin and Witten. They were all drafted by fantasy owners to be #1 guys (top 12). Laurent Robinson scored more points than all of them at WR20. When a team has a solid #1 receiver like Mike Wallace, it is very rare to have another WR1 on the same team. There is just not enough to go around. A Brown is fair value at WR3, but A Brown owners can't see it.If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
Sorry I meant nothing special in terms of being a #1 WR. I'm sure he's a fine, hardworking young man. And he's worth owning - I'm not suggesting you drop him. But #2s are a dime a dozen and if you've got someone in your league that thinks he's worth the price of a #1 you should sell. He's overvalued because he's a solid player, playing opposite a guy who demands a lot of attention, with a near-elite QB throwing him the ball, and no elite TE to compete with. And situations change.
I think the optimism stems from the fact that he accomplished what he did as a second year player and folks see further upside if he continues to improve.Throw in the fact that defining Wallace as a "solid" #1 WR is debatable even with a healthy Big Ben. It's very reasonable to see this as a 1A and 1B situation considering the way each are used, and I'm not sure who the A and B would be necessarily.And as mentioned, Miller nor the RB's represent a viable threat to either Brown or Wallace's targets unless Haley changes things dramatically.SO, it's not unreasonable to project a bump in AB's targets and counting totals based on those assessments, if that's how someone sees it.Sanders is a damn fine player, I agree, but if he is healthy it will be interesting to see who takes on the slot role versus the outside role or if he and AB are used interchangeably. If AB moves to a full time slot role I actually think his reception totals could go up while yardage and TD rate stays close to the same. Then again, even Tomlin questions whether Sanders can stay healthy.But, again, this is all predicated on Wallace not receiving a tender the Steelers can match which IIRC you are banking on anyways, so the whole discussion may be moot, right? Or am I WAY OFF BASE here also?I just checked a standard PPR league I was in and filtered the WR results on points scored for the season. Brown was WR25 last year. Sanders and Big Ben will be healthy, but owners expect A Brown's targets to increase. Why is this? There are only so many targets to go around. A good example from last year was Dez, Miles Austin and Witten. They were all drafted by fantasy owners to be #1 guys (top 12). Laurent Robinson scored more points than all of them at WR20. When a team has a solid #1 receiver like Mike Wallace, it is very rare to have another WR1 on the same team. There is just not enough to go around. A Brown is fair value at WR3, but A Brown owners can't see it.If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
You are not remembering correctly. I said it was 50/50 that Mike Wallace would get an offer the Steeler's could not match. I also said that, as a heavy Mike Wallace owner, I do not want him to be pulled away from the Steelers.You asked if you were "way off base". Read your bolded statement. You want to debate whether or not Mike Wallace is really a #1. Mike Wallace has finished as a #1 WR the last two years in fantasy football and he has only played for 3 years. What is there to debate about that? Either he did or he did not. He did, and he did it with an injured Big Ben for most of the season.I think the optimism stems from the fact that he accomplished what he did as a second year player and folks see further upside if he continues to improve.Throw in the fact that defining Wallace as a "solid" #1 WR is debatable even with a healthy Big Ben. It's very reasonable to see this as a 1A and 1B situation considering the way each are used, and I'm not sure who the A and B would be necessarily.I just checked a standard PPR league I was in and filtered the WR results on points scored for the season. Brown was WR25 last year. Sanders and Big Ben will be healthy, but owners expect A Brown's targets to increase. Why is this? There are only so many targets to go around. A good example from last year was Dez, Miles Austin and Witten. They were all drafted by fantasy owners to be #1 guys (top 12). Laurent Robinson scored more points than all of them at WR20. When a team has a solid #1 receiver like Mike Wallace, it is very rare to have another WR1 on the same team. There is just not enough to go around. A Brown is fair value at WR3, but A Brown owners can't see it.If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
And as mentioned, Miller nor the RB's represent a viable threat to either Brown or Wallace's targets unless Haley changes things dramatically.
SO, it's not unreasonable to project a bump in AB's targets and counting totals based on those assessments, if that's how someone sees it.
Sanders is a damn fine player, I agree, but if he is healthy it will be interesting to see who takes on the slot role versus the outside role or if he and AB are used interchangeably. If AB moves to a full time slot role I actually think his reception totals could go up while yardage and TD rate stays close to the same. Then again, even Tomlin questions whether Sanders can stay healthy.
But, again, this is all predicated on Wallace not receiving a tender the Steelers can match which IIRC you are banking on anyways, so the whole discussion may be moot, right? Or am I WAY OFF BASE here also?
You are not remembering correctly.I think the optimism stems from the fact that he accomplished what he did as a second year player and folks see further upside if he continues to improve.Throw in the fact that defining Wallace as a "solid" #1 WR is debatable even with a healthy Big Ben. It's very reasonable to see this as a 1A and 1B situation considering the way each are used, and I'm not sure who the A and B would be necessarily.I just checked a standard PPR league I was in and filtered the WR results on points scored for the season. Brown was WR25 last year. Sanders and Big Ben will be healthy, but owners expect A Brown's targets to increase. Why is this? There are only so many targets to go around. A good example from last year was Dez, Miles Austin and Witten. They were all drafted by fantasy owners to be #1 guys (top 12). Laurent Robinson scored more points than all of them at WR20. When a team has a solid #1 receiver like Mike Wallace, it is very rare to have another WR1 on the same team. There is just not enough to go around. A Brown is fair value at WR3, but A Brown owners can't see it.If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
And as mentioned, Miller nor the RB's represent a viable threat to either Brown or Wallace's targets unless Haley changes things dramatically.
SO, it's not unreasonable to project a bump in AB's targets and counting totals based on those assessments, if that's how someone sees it.
Sanders is a damn fine player, I agree, but if he is healthy it will be interesting to see who takes on the slot role versus the outside role or if he and AB are used interchangeably. If AB moves to a full time slot role I actually think his reception totals could go up while yardage and TD rate stays close to the same. Then again, even Tomlin questions whether Sanders can stay healthy.
But, again, this is all predicated on Wallace not receiving a tender the Steelers can match which IIRC you are banking on anyways, so the whole discussion may be moot, right? Or am I WAY OFF BASE here also?
I think you've got a thread to reread my friend.Sounds a little more than 50/50 on that position, no?Wallace certainly has functioned as a #1 for fantasy and NFL purposes the last year and 1/3, I agree with that much. It is debatable whether that will continue IMO. Especially considering so much of your take is hinged on a non date specific shoulder injury for Ben based on a single post season interview with Bouchette and assuming that effected him prior to week 14 when he was obviously injured. Unless we have something far more solid to indicate that shoulder what a detriment, it's fair to conclude that Brown was out-targeting Wallace even with a healthy Ben behind center. Wallace may continue to be the #1 target, but there are plenty of fair reasons to doubt that as well. Honestly, my money would be on Wallace outproducing Brown, but it's not reasonable to be unequivocal in the take that those who favor Brown are simply wrong.
I'm just a fan of the team, not invested in either Brown or Wallace, but I'm beginning to wonder if these two sentiments aren't strongly related and driving a large part of your analysis.
I did reread the thread and here it is, where I say exactly "I think it is 50/50 that Wallace stays or goes".The funny thing is that you want Mike Wallace to stay and I want Mike Wallace to stay. You are just being pissy because I called you out on the 2.7 million tender. Even if Wallace stays with the Steelers, it will not be for the 2.7 that you originally stated in the link and then back-tracked on. If you do not like what I wrote, then you can just wait until everything plays out and we can chat about it then. As it stands now, just as it did before, you are WAY OFF BASE. Just to clarify:You are not remembering correctly.I think the optimism stems from the fact that he accomplished what he did as a second year player and folks see further upside if he continues to improve.Throw in the fact that defining Wallace as a "solid" #1 WR is debatable even with a healthy Big Ben. It's very reasonable to see this as a 1A and 1B situation considering the way each are used, and I'm not sure who the A and B would be necessarily.I just checked a standard PPR league I was in and filtered the WR results on points scored for the season. Brown was WR25 last year. Sanders and Big Ben will be healthy, but owners expect A Brown's targets to increase. Why is this? There are only so many targets to go around. A good example from last year was Dez, Miles Austin and Witten. They were all drafted by fantasy owners to be #1 guys (top 12). Laurent Robinson scored more points than all of them at WR20. When a team has a solid #1 receiver like Mike Wallace, it is very rare to have another WR1 on the same team. There is just not enough to go around. A Brown is fair value at WR3, but A Brown owners can't see it.If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
And as mentioned, Miller nor the RB's represent a viable threat to either Brown or Wallace's targets unless Haley changes things dramatically.
SO, it's not unreasonable to project a bump in AB's targets and counting totals based on those assessments, if that's how someone sees it.
Sanders is a damn fine player, I agree, but if he is healthy it will be interesting to see who takes on the slot role versus the outside role or if he and AB are used interchangeably. If AB moves to a full time slot role I actually think his reception totals could go up while yardage and TD rate stays close to the same. Then again, even Tomlin questions whether Sanders can stay healthy.
But, again, this is all predicated on Wallace not receiving a tender the Steelers can match which IIRC you are banking on anyways, so the whole discussion may be moot, right? Or am I WAY OFF BASE here also?
To quote you exactly,
Sounds a little more than 50/50 on that position, no?Wallace certainly has functioned as a #1 for fantasy and NFL purposes the last year and 1/3, I agree with that much. It is debatable whether that will continue IMO. Especially considering so much of your take is hinged on a non date specific shoulder injury for Ben based on a single post season interview with Bouchette and assuming that effected him prior to week 14 when he was obviously injured. Unless we have something far more solid to indicate that shoulder what a detriment, it's fair to conclude that Brown was out-targeting Wallace even with a healthy Ben behind center. Wallace may continue to be the #1 target, but there are plenty of fair reasons to doubt that as well. Honestly, my money would be on Wallace outproducing Brown, but it's not reasonable to be unequivocal in the take that those who favor Brown are simply wrong.
I'm just a fan of the team, not invested in either Brown or Wallace, but I'm beginning to wonder if these two sentiments aren't strongly related and driving a large part of your analysis.
#1 I didn't state that Wallace would play for 2.7 mil either in your quote nor anywhere else in the thread nor did I backtrack from it. In fact that was never what the debate was about, sigh. Read the thread bro. The discussion was about the fact, I thought he wouldn't get another offer, you thought he would. You obviously did state that Wallace would unequivocally receive other offers and then did backtrack from that position.#2 I'm not sure you understand what pissy means, although you demonstrate it well.I did reread the thread and here it is, where I say exactly "I think it is 50/50 that Wallace stays or goes".The funny thing is that you want Mike Wallace to stay and I want Mike Wallace to stay. You are just being pissy because I called you out on the 2.7 million tender. Even if Wallace stays with the Steelers, it will not be for the 2.7 that you originally stated in the link and then back-tracked on. If you do not like what I wrote, then you can just wait until everything plays out and we can chat about it then. As it stands now, just as it did before, you are WAY OFF BASE. Just to clarify:You are not remembering correctly.I think the optimism stems from the fact that he accomplished what he did as a second year player and folks see further upside if he continues to improve.Throw in the fact that defining Wallace as a "solid" #1 WR is debatable even with a healthy Big Ben. It's very reasonable to see this as a 1A and 1B situation considering the way each are used, and I'm not sure who the A and B would be necessarily.I just checked a standard PPR league I was in and filtered the WR results on points scored for the season. Brown was WR25 last year. Sanders and Big Ben will be healthy, but owners expect A Brown's targets to increase. Why is this? There are only so many targets to go around. A good example from last year was Dez, Miles Austin and Witten. They were all drafted by fantasy owners to be #1 guys (top 12). Laurent Robinson scored more points than all of them at WR20. When a team has a solid #1 receiver like Mike Wallace, it is very rare to have another WR1 on the same team. There is just not enough to go around. A Brown is fair value at WR3, but A Brown owners can't see it.If he puts up WR2 / borderline WR1 numbers this upcoming year, that makes him pretty special in my league.
And as mentioned, Miller nor the RB's represent a viable threat to either Brown or Wallace's targets unless Haley changes things dramatically.
SO, it's not unreasonable to project a bump in AB's targets and counting totals based on those assessments, if that's how someone sees it.
Sanders is a damn fine player, I agree, but if he is healthy it will be interesting to see who takes on the slot role versus the outside role or if he and AB are used interchangeably. If AB moves to a full time slot role I actually think his reception totals could go up while yardage and TD rate stays close to the same. Then again, even Tomlin questions whether Sanders can stay healthy.
But, again, this is all predicated on Wallace not receiving a tender the Steelers can match which IIRC you are banking on anyways, so the whole discussion may be moot, right? Or am I WAY OFF BASE here also?
To quote you exactly,
Sounds a little more than 50/50 on that position, no?Wallace certainly has functioned as a #1 for fantasy and NFL purposes the last year and 1/3, I agree with that much. It is debatable whether that will continue IMO. Especially considering so much of your take is hinged on a non date specific shoulder injury for Ben based on a single post season interview with Bouchette and assuming that effected him prior to week 14 when he was obviously injured. Unless we have something far more solid to indicate that shoulder what a detriment, it's fair to conclude that Brown was out-targeting Wallace even with a healthy Ben behind center. Wallace may continue to be the #1 target, but there are plenty of fair reasons to doubt that as well. Honestly, my money would be on Wallace outproducing Brown, but it's not reasonable to be unequivocal in the take that those who favor Brown are simply wrong.
I'm just a fan of the team, not invested in either Brown or Wallace, but I'm beginning to wonder if these two sentiments aren't strongly related and driving a large part of your analysis.
* Mike Wallace will not play for 2.7 million in 2012 and;
** Antonio Brown is not the 1A to Mike Wallace at 1B
If you cannot move on from that, then we can agree to disagree and revisit later. There is a clear #1 WR for the Steelers and that is Mike Wallace.
I dont know if it was you or someone else who said this earlier, but now way is Brown going 4th/5th. Try late 6th or early 7th.
Whatever your whatever. You can't triple stamp a double stamp Lloyd.
Yeah, because so many redraft leagues have their draft in April
In my Steelers homers league Id be surprised if he goes 5th round.ETA: That also says his ADP is over CAR Steve Smith
I think you drink much water from Three Rivers.Yeah, because so many redraft leagues have their draft in April
Tell me something I already didnt know...And like I said in my last post, using redraft ADP's in April is a joke. Your link has Brown going over Steve Smith (CRAZY), Stevie Johnson, DJax, Lloyd, Wayne. I feel different ways about all those guys, but no way will Brown be drafted over them in most leagues.
Excuse my 2011 Target stat report posting: Brown (123) over Wallace (113). It was meant for the less savvy f/f players benefit unlike yourself. I have a tendency to back up and support my statements by stats and facts. Currently on my cheat sheet, I have Steve Smith ranked higher than both Wallace and Brown. AB and Steve Johnson are ranked very close to one another. Coin toss. The rest of the players you mentioned are lower ranked. Reggie Wayne being the lowest. If you want a certain player, you assign a high value tag on him before the rest of your league.'Kenny Powers said:
Thats a steal for you
