Any early strategies on draft positioning? (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

This year it seems to be a top 3 (some like me will say top 4), but has anyone given any thoughts to some other draft slots? What if you get "stuck" with the 9 or 10 slot.

I would love to hear some early "pre-season" strategy sessions.

Here's mine. If I can't get a top 4 pick, I'm thinking about dropping down to 9 or 10 (10 team league) and will try to scoop up two solid players (it may be the first time in awhile that I don't go RB/RB). I'm thinking that I may be able to snag Cadillac and Brown in the late first, early second (who knows). Or maybe I grab Jordan/Smith combo.

Just throwing some thoughts out there.

 

[bagger.]

This year it seems to be a top 3 (some like me will say top 4), but has anyone given any thoughts to some other draft slots?  What if you get "stuck" with the 9 or 10 slot.

I would love to hear some early "pre-season" strategy sessions.

Here's mine.  If I can't get a top 4 pick, I'm thinking about dropping down to 9 or 10 (10 team league) and will try to scoop up two solid players (it may be the first time in awhile that I don't go RB/RB).  I'm thinking that I may be able to snag Cadillac and Brown in the late first, early second (who knows).  Or maybe I grab Jordan/Smith combo.

Just throwing some thoughts out there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i would love to be late in the first round.the one place i hate being is in the middle. i always prefer to be near turns (either beginning or end) as that gives you some additional flexibility and allows you to wait on certain positions based on what teams closer to the turn than you have already done in the draft.

being in the middle means you have 10 or so picks in between yours every time. you have to project more players who will go in between picks making it much tougher to wait on certain players for a round and getting extra value. you have to take the best player off the board even if his ADP is a round later as you can't gamble that he'll be there the in the next round. whereas near the turn if both owners already have a qb you can wait another round to grab one and take a player who fulfills another one of your needs but also theirs.

it effectively can give you dual 7th round picks as an example instead of a 7th and an 8th.

 

[5Rings]

Every draft I've been in so far, the guys at 5-9 want to move up or down.

Seems to me you get the same value at players 5-15 and guys realize this.

 

[bagger.]

Seems to me you get the same value at players 5-15 and guys realize this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

this is definitely not true.standard ppr league based on average value per position over the last 5 years:

1.05 RB#5: 319 points

1.06 RB#6: 306 points

1.07 RB #7: 295 points

1.08 RB #8: 283 points

1.09 RB #9: 270 points

1.10 RB #10: 259 points

1.11 QB #1: 370 points

1.12 RB #11: 251 points

2.01 RB #12: 245 points

2.02 WR #1: 352 points

2.03 RB #13: 241 points

2.04 RB #14: 235 points

2.05 RB #15: 230 points

quite the drop off for RBs with a QB and WR thrown in.

 

[Rounders]

I agree with you bagger. Over the last 5-6 years I have come to like drafting on the "bookends" rather than the middle. When you are on the end, I feel like you can start the runs on players and control a draft a little more. If you are "stuck in the middle" then you become reactive rather than proactive.

 

[5Rings]

Seems to me you get the same value at players 5-15 and guys realize this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

this is definitely not true.standard ppr league based on average value per position over the last 5 years:

1.05 RB#5: 319 points

1.06 RB#6: 306 points

1.07 RB #7: 295 points

1.08 RB #8: 283 points

1.09 RB #9: 270 points

1.10 RB #10: 259 points

1.11 QB #1: 370 points

1.12 RB #11: 251 points

2.01 RB #12: 245 points

2.02 WR #1: 352 points

2.03 RB #13: 241 points

2.04 RB #14: 235 points

2.05 RB #15: 230 points

quite the drop off for RBs with a QB and WR thrown in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Perhaps I should clarify for you, bagger.

In the 5 drafts I've been in, people think the value of pick 5--especially those people who use tiers--is closer in value to pick 15 than in recent memory.

Thanks for the stats, though.

 

[5Rings]

I agree with you bagger.  Over the last 5-6 years I have come to like drafting on the "bookends" rather than the middle.  When you are on the end, I feel like you can start the runs on players and control a draft a little more.  If you are "stuck in the middle" then you become reactive rather than proactive.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Who doesn't prefer drafting on the turn?

 

[Bankerguy]

I would love 3 this year.

You get one of LT/LJ/SA and better value on the way down in the second round.

 

[bagger.]

Seems to me you get the same value at players 5-15 and guys realize this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

this is definitely not true.standard ppr league based on average value per position over the last 5 years:

1.05 RB#5: 319 points

1.06 RB#6: 306 points

1.07 RB #7: 295 points

1.08 RB #8: 283 points

1.09 RB #9: 270 points

1.10 RB #10: 259 points

1.11 QB #1: 370 points

1.12 RB #11: 251 points

2.01 RB #12: 245 points

2.02 WR #1: 352 points

2.03 RB #13: 241 points

2.04 RB #14: 235 points

2.05 RB #15: 230 points

quite the drop off for RBs with a QB and WR thrown in.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Perhaps I should clarify for you, bagger.

In the 5 drafts I've been in, people think the value of pick 5--especially those people who use tiers--is closer in value to pick 15 than in recent memory.

Thanks for the stats, though.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

so you are saying people mis-value pick 5?

 

[joffer]

so you are saying people mis-value pick 5?



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

all the time. the value of the 5 pick is what that owner and the rest of the league perceive it to be. If everyone thinks that the player they could get a 5 has the same probability to finish at 5 as the guy they could get at 15, that's what the pick's value is, whether it's correct or not.

 

[5Rings]

so you are saying people mis-value pick 5?



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am saying that from what I've seen, those people with the 5 pick--after LT, LJ, SA, and Portis are gone--definately tend to undervalue the pick and want to move down in the draft where they see more value for the pick.Not saying I agree, but its my observation from the drafts I've been involved with.

 

[bagger.]

so you are saying people mis-value pick 5?



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am saying that from what I've seen, those people with the 5 pick--after LT, LJ, SA, and Portis are gone--definately tend to undervalue the pick and want to move down in the draft where they see more value for the pick.Not saying I agree, but its my observation from the drafts I've been involved with.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

umm...

Seems to me you get the same value at players 5-15 and guys realize this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you thought that players in the 5-15 range were the same. i was just showing you how that was incorrect.

 

[Rounders]

I would love 3 this year.

You get one of LT/LJ/SA and better value on the way down in the second round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree Bankerguy, but my question was aimed more at the thought that you would not have one of those picks. So what would you try to do strategy wise. Take Portis at #4 and hope a good player comes in round 2? Drop down to the bottom of round 1 and get two solid players?

 

[5Rings]

you thought that players in the 5-15 range were the same.  i was just showing you how that was incorrect.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, you jumped to that assumption. Do you not understand the concept of value?

 

[bagger.]

I would love 3 this year.

You get one of LT/LJ/SA and better value on the way down in the second round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree Bankerguy, but my question was aimed more at the thought that you would not have one of those picks. So what would you try to do strategy wise. Take Portis at #4 and hope a good player comes in round 2? Drop down to the bottom of round 1 and get two solid players?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

drop.you can get two very good RBs w/ 1 & 2, Droughns in the 3rd and a very good WR in the 4th which will be a great start to your team.

 

[bagger.]

you thought that players in the 5-15 range were the same.  i was just showing you how that was incorrect.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, you jumped to that assumption. Do you not understand the concept of value?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"Seems to me" means you think that.

 

[Bankerguy]

I would love 3 this year.

You get one of LT/LJ/SA and better value on the way down in the second round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree Bankerguy, but my question was aimed more at the thought that you would not have one of those picks. So what would you try to do strategy wise. Take Portis at #4 and hope a good player comes in round 2? Drop down to the bottom of round 1 and get two solid players?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Didn't read your whole original post. (At work)I would go 9 or 10 then. Not much difference in the 4-15 ranked players. I'd rather get my value on the 2nd round pick. I'll just add that you can't make a mistake on your first 2 picks or your year is over.

Pick a Jamal Lewis (Like my buddy last year in the 9 hole) and thanks for coming out.

 

[5Rings]

I would love 3 this year.

You get one of LT/LJ/SA and better value on the way down in the second round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree Bankerguy, but my question was aimed more at the thought that you would not have one of those picks. So what would you try to do strategy wise. Take Portis at #4 and hope a good player comes in round 2? Drop down to the bottom of round 1 and get two solid players?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rob, I'd rather move down. Based on zealot ADP (spot 5 vs 10);Stephen Jackson + Kevin Jones

or

Lamont Jordan + Ronnie Brown

 

[Rounders]

I would love 3 this year.

You get one of LT/LJ/SA and better value on the way down in the second round.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree Bankerguy, but my question was aimed more at the thought that you would not have one of those picks. So what would you try to do strategy wise. Take Portis at #4 and hope a good player comes in round 2? Drop down to the bottom of round 1 and get two solid players?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rob, I'd rather move down. Based on zealot ADP (spot 5 vs 10);Stephen Jackson + Kevin Jones

or

Lamont Jordan + Ronnie Brown

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's what I was thinking...it may be better to move down this year...I would love to start my season with Jordan/Brown combo.Dumb question, do you have to be a member in zealot to see ADP?

 

[crimsonrebel]

what about in a 16 team redraft league like i'm in? what position would you guys want in that? is the swing pick still doable? i think the top 4 choices would be more highly valued there.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I've been doing mock after mock the last few months trying to figure out which draft positions are the best for each kind of league. My favorite by far is 8th spot of a 1QB/1-2RB/3-4WR or TE/1K/1D setup. From the 8 spot I've come up with this:

1.8 - Steve Smith - 90% of the time it's LJ, LT, SA, Portis, Edge, Tiki, and Peyton as the 1st 7 picks

2.1 - Torry Holt (or whoever you like as the #2WR this year, but I like Torry)

3.8 - Reggie Wayne - I have yet to see Smith, Holt, TO, Chad, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, or Boldin slip this far, but have gotten Wayne a few times.

4.1 - Antonio Gates - Some people forget he's still the #10WR, even if no TE is required.

5.8 - Reuben Droughns - With 3/4 WR's being needed, this guy has slipped to me more than once.

6.1 - Curtis Martin - The old man is still getting his carries.

7.8 - Fred Taylor - If my RB's are weak/risky, I stock up on a few.

8.1 - CHI defense - Yes, 8th is early for defense, but I want to make sure no one else values D's like I do.

9.8 - Kurt Warner - How can the ARI QB keep falling so far? Sure, he is an injury-risk, but I'll take that risk

10.1 - Rod Smith - I guess you can tell from my old-timers that this is a redraft league I am talking about

11.8 - Kevin Curtis - My Torry Holt insurance.

12.1 - Aaron Brooks - Trust me folks, he falls this far quite alot, but he's on a passing team.

13.8 - Best available kicker (will usually end up being a top guy)

14.1 - Reggie Brown - Undervalued as the WR1 in PHI, sometimes not getting drafted at all in 8-team leagues.

15.8 - Maurice Drew - Fred Taylor insurance, and will be here in redraft leagues.

16.1 - Matt Leinart - Insurance for Warner. If Warner goes down in game 1, I've still got the ARI QB. And in a redraft league, he's gonna be here to pick up.

I've been able to draft this same exact team twice now. The plan with this is obviously to go with 1RB/4WR, but I like the starting lineup:

QB - Warner

RB - Droughns, Martin, or Taylor (whoever is healthy and has the best matchup)

WR - Smith

WR - Holt

WR - Wayne

WR - Gates

K - A top 10

D - CHI

If 2 of my RB's happen to be healthy with decent matchups, I can go 2RB/3WR. Drafting this way, the other teams won't be able to compete in the WR department. The guys that stock up on RB's in the early rounds end up with 3 starting WR's like Plax/Coles/Porter. Sure, they have the big edge in RB's, but the team listed above is gonna score every week.

 

[bagger.]

I've been doing mock after mock the last few months trying to figure out which draft positions are the best for each kind of league.  My favorite by far is 8th spot of a 1QB/1-2RB/3-4WR or TE/1K/1D setup.  From the 8 spot I've come up with this:

1.8 - Steve Smith - 90% of the time it's LJ, LT, SA, Portis, Edge, Tiki, and Peyton as the 1st 7 picks

2.1 - Torry Holt (or whoever you like as the #2WR this year, but I like Torry)

3.8 - Reggie Wayne - I have yet to see Smith, Holt, TO, Chad, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, or Boldin slip this far, but have gotten Wayne a few times.

4.1 - Antonio Gates - Some people forget he's still the #10WR, even if no TE is required.

5.8 - Reuben Droughns - With 3/4 WR's being needed, this guy has slipped to me more than once.

6.1 - Curtis Martin - The old man is still getting his carries.

7.8 - Fred Taylor - If my RB's are weak/risky, I stock up on a few.

8.1 - CHI defense - Yes, 8th is early for defense, but I want to make sure no one else values D's like I do.

9.8 - Kurt Warner - How can the ARI QB keep falling so far?  Sure, he is an injury-risk, but I'll take that risk

10.1 - Rod Smith - I guess you can tell from my old-timers that this is a redraft league I am talking about

11.8 - Kevin Curtis - My Torry Holt insurance.

12.1 - Aaron Brooks - Trust me folks, he falls this far quite alot, but he's on a passing team.

13.8 - Best available kicker (will usually end up being a top guy)

14.1 - Reggie Brown - Undervalued as the WR1 in PHI, sometimes not getting drafted at all in 8-team leagues.

15.8 - Maurice Drew - Fred Taylor insurance, and will be here in redraft leagues.

16.1 - Matt Leinart - Insurance for Warner.  If Warner goes down in game 1, I've still got the ARI QB. And in a redraft league, he's gonna be here to pick up.

I've been able to draft this same exact team twice now.  The plan with this is obviously to go with 1RB/4WR, but I like the starting lineup:

QB - Warner

RB - Droughns, Martin, or Taylor (whoever is healthy and has the best matchup)

WR - Smith

WR - Holt

WR - Wayne

WR - Gates

K - A top 10

D - CHI

If 2 of my RB's happen to be healthy with decent matchups, I can go 2RB/3WR.  Drafting this way, the other teams won't be able to compete in the WR department.  The guys that stock up on RB's in the early rounds end up with 3 starting WR's like Plax/Coles/Porter.  Sure, they have the big edge in RB's, but the team listed above is gonna score every week.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i don't even know where to begin.

Pass.

 

[JMon348]

I've been doing mock after mock the last few months trying to figure out which draft positions are the best for each kind of league.  My favorite by far is 8th spot of a 1QB/1-2RB/3-4WR or TE/1K/1D setup.  From the 8 spot I've come up with this:

1.8 - Steve Smith - 90% of the time it's LJ, LT, SA, Portis, Edge, Tiki, and Peyton as the 1st 7 picks

2.1 - Torry Holt (or whoever you like as the #2WR this year, but I like Torry)

3.8 - Reggie Wayne - I have yet to see Smith, Holt, TO, Chad, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, or Boldin slip this far, but have gotten Wayne a few times.

4.1 - Antonio Gates - Some people forget he's still the #10WR, even if no TE is required.

5.8 - Reuben Droughns - With 3/4 WR's being needed, this guy has slipped to me more than once.

6.1 - Curtis Martin - The old man is still getting his carries.

7.8 - Fred Taylor - If my RB's are weak/risky, I stock up on a few.

8.1 - CHI defense - Yes, 8th is early for defense, but I want to make sure no one else values D's like I do.

9.8 - Kurt Warner - How can the ARI QB keep falling so far?  Sure, he is an injury-risk, but I'll take that risk

10.1 - Rod Smith - I guess you can tell from my old-timers that this is a redraft league I am talking about

11.8 - Kevin Curtis - My Torry Holt insurance.

12.1 - Aaron Brooks - Trust me folks, he falls this far quite alot, but he's on a passing team.

13.8 - Best available kicker (will usually end up being a top guy)

14.1 - Reggie Brown - Undervalued as the WR1 in PHI, sometimes not getting drafted at all in 8-team leagues.

15.8 - Maurice Drew - Fred Taylor insurance, and will be here in redraft leagues.

16.1 - Matt Leinart - Insurance for Warner.  If Warner goes down in game 1, I've still got the ARI QB. And in a redraft league, he's gonna be here to pick up.

I've been able to draft this same exact team twice now.  The plan with this is obviously to go with 1RB/4WR, but I like the starting lineup:

QB - Warner

RB - Droughns, Martin, or Taylor (whoever is healthy and has the best matchup)

WR - Smith

WR - Holt

WR - Wayne

WR - Gates

K - A top 10

D - CHI

If 2 of my RB's happen to be healthy with decent matchups, I can go 2RB/3WR.  Drafting this way, the other teams won't be able to compete in the WR department.  The guys that stock up on RB's in the early rounds end up with 3 starting WR's like Plax/Coles/Porter.  Sure, they have the big edge in RB's, but the team listed above is gonna score every week.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i don't even know where to begin.

Pass.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i havent seen Gates or Droughns drop that far in any draft, and you took Martin way to early

 

[Rounders]

what about in a 16 team redraft league like i'm in?  what position would you guys want in that?  is the swing pick still doable?  i think the top 4 choices would be more highly valued there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have never been in a 16 team league, but I would think that picks 16 & 17 don't carry as much value. it's my opinion that in large leagues you need to get the best player available. Since the talent will be spread pretty thin, I would think that you would want to position yourself in the 7-10 range (if you can't get top 4).Just my