Looks to me as if absolutely everybody is on the Chris Johnson bandwagon as the top pick in all drafts, regardless of format, league size or scoring system. I have the first pick and would like to make the argument to take Adrian Peterson instead. FWIW, 12 team redraft league, performance scoring with all TDs 6 pts, start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR/TE, 2 flex, PK, defense.
As everyone knows, both of these RBs are beasts who are likely to go 1500-2000 total yards and 14-18 TDs. With the loss of their backups, there is no chance for them to lose touches, red zone carries or third down opportunities.
Peterson will not lose touches no matter how often he fumbles; although he has a reputation for putting the rock on the ground, his fumbles/carry and fumbles/yards ratios are average. In most scoring formats, no points are lost for fumbles anyway.
Peterson has proven that he is a consitently superior performer whether he has no support from his passing game (meaning when there are consistently 8-9 in the box), or whether he lines up behind a gunslinger who forces passes and throws even in obvious running situations. In other words, it doesn't matter whether Favre comes back or not, ADP will put up great numbers either way.
Here is the best reason to go for ADP insterad of CJ: Johnson has been good for one year, and great for one year. Peterson has been a beast for several years running, ever since game one of his rookie year. His consistency and excellence have made him the Marshall Faulk or Ladanian Tomlinson of today's NFL. He may not be the #1 RB every year, but it would take an ACL or an tsunami to keep him out of the top five. That's the closest thing to a guarantee as anyone can get in fantasy football.
I'm a big believer that you can't usually win a fantasy championship with your first round pick, but you can definitely lose one. Every year there's a Matt Forte or Willie Parker selected in the first round who buries his owner, since you can't build your team around a bust. Therefore, an important question every owner must ask before pulling the trigger on his first round selection is... which of these studs is least likely to screw me up? Who is the lock to give me first round production and be the backbone of my team, barring a prolonged injury? IMHO, this is why Brees is going before Rodgers in most mocks and drafts, even though Rodgers has higher projections across the board.
There's no question whatsoever that these two RBs are alone in the top tier, no disrespect to MJD, Ray Rice and the top group of QBs. Pick 1.02 is easy...grab whichever one is left. But at 1.01, I'm going for the guy who has done it for several years, under a variety of different conditions, in a tough defensive division. Nobody expects CJ to duplicate last years numbers, even with Lendale gone, and nobody knows how significant the dropoff will be.
For my money, it's gonna be AP. That's my pick unless some of you guys can talk me out of it.
As everyone knows, both of these RBs are beasts who are likely to go 1500-2000 total yards and 14-18 TDs. With the loss of their backups, there is no chance for them to lose touches, red zone carries or third down opportunities.
Peterson will not lose touches no matter how often he fumbles; although he has a reputation for putting the rock on the ground, his fumbles/carry and fumbles/yards ratios are average. In most scoring formats, no points are lost for fumbles anyway.
Peterson has proven that he is a consitently superior performer whether he has no support from his passing game (meaning when there are consistently 8-9 in the box), or whether he lines up behind a gunslinger who forces passes and throws even in obvious running situations. In other words, it doesn't matter whether Favre comes back or not, ADP will put up great numbers either way.
Here is the best reason to go for ADP insterad of CJ: Johnson has been good for one year, and great for one year. Peterson has been a beast for several years running, ever since game one of his rookie year. His consistency and excellence have made him the Marshall Faulk or Ladanian Tomlinson of today's NFL. He may not be the #1 RB every year, but it would take an ACL or an tsunami to keep him out of the top five. That's the closest thing to a guarantee as anyone can get in fantasy football.
I'm a big believer that you can't usually win a fantasy championship with your first round pick, but you can definitely lose one. Every year there's a Matt Forte or Willie Parker selected in the first round who buries his owner, since you can't build your team around a bust. Therefore, an important question every owner must ask before pulling the trigger on his first round selection is... which of these studs is least likely to screw me up? Who is the lock to give me first round production and be the backbone of my team, barring a prolonged injury? IMHO, this is why Brees is going before Rodgers in most mocks and drafts, even though Rodgers has higher projections across the board.
There's no question whatsoever that these two RBs are alone in the top tier, no disrespect to MJD, Ray Rice and the top group of QBs. Pick 1.02 is easy...grab whichever one is left. But at 1.01, I'm going for the guy who has done it for several years, under a variety of different conditions, in a tough defensive division. Nobody expects CJ to duplicate last years numbers, even with Lendale gone, and nobody knows how significant the dropoff will be.
For my money, it's gonna be AP. That's my pick unless some of you guys can talk me out of it.
