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ADP Con:- Let's also not forget that McKinnie could be gone for the first 4 games of the year...
Don't agree with this at all.
Very insightful. What don't you agree with. What would you project their ceiling/floors to be?
I don't agree with it either, but it doesn't make it less insightful than "at this point ADP's ceiling/upside is a lot closer to LT's floor/average.". Your other points are pretty solid, but this one, not so much.
Based off FBG's projections for example (5 experts)Fantasy Points (I know this is based off projections only)
If those are the numbers you're using, I'd say they aren't saying the same. As a matter of fact, AD's ceiling is exactly half way between LT2's ceiling and average.
This is where I am at. I have the 1.1 in a dynasty league. Do I take LT for maybe 3 more years of production or do I go with the kid? I am seriously torn here. It's a non PPR which makes it even harder. One stat I heard last night on that shiddy ESPN draft was that he only had 5 carries inside the 5 last year? Is this possible? That if he gets any goal line carries this year we can be looking at 20TD's with his homerun ability on just about every play...
What percentage on non-rookies who run for over 1,000 yards regress the next season?
In 2006 there were 22 running backs who ran for 1,000 yards. One was Tiki Barber, who retired and didn't play in 2007. One was Joseph Addai, who was the only rookie in the group, and he scored 45 more points in 2007 than in 2006.Of the other 20 running backs, only three scored more fantasy points in 2007 than in 2006. On average they scored 77.9 fewer points the year after rushing for 1,000 yards.
.......FWIW
ADP
2007 Pro Bowl - 16 carries 129 yards & 2 TD's
LT
2006 Pro Bowl - LT 10 carries, 51 yards & 1 TD
2005 Pro Bowl - LT 5 carries, 13 yards & no TD's
2004 Pro Bowl- LT 7 carries, 28 yards & 1 TD
Three year total - 22 carries, 92 yards & 2 TD's
ADP outscored LT's last three Pro Bowl appearences combined.
I have no idea.The stat I read about only 1 in 8 rooks improving on their 1,000 yard seasons was in someones write up about Marshawn Lynch and as they were trying to point out that you should not assume second year improvement for him.
Sure what I said is a reason to downgrade Peterson and frankly you only added to a reason to downgrade Peterson in relation to LT. Consistency. LT is consistent and Peterson has yet to prove it beyond one year where he failed to play all 16 games.Going back to why I bothered to point out rookie production in the first place. I think those people who select Peterson do so on the belief he's going to improve from his rookie year to his second. Not to many people expect backs to improve from say their 5th to 6th years like people tend to assume backs will improve in their second season. All of this is relevant it you think Peterson is a better pick because of LT because you view him as an ascending player.
LOLOLOLOL WHAT IS A FANTASY FOOTBALL EXPERT. OKAY I GUESS THEY WEN'T TO THE SCHOOL OF FANTASY FOOTBALL. ANYONE WHO CALLS THEMSELVES A FANTASY FOOTBALL EXPERT IS A JOKE. YOU LOOK AT LAST YEARS STATS AND TAKE A GUESS.....THATS ALL IT IS
Tough day in the office?
I think it's safe to say that ADP has a better chance of being that 1, then the other rookie RB's combined. He is simply that good.
Time to switch to decaf.
What is the specific margin of error for the "experts" predictions for the top 5 RB's last year? Not to disparage the fine people who run this great site, but the fact that they are "experts" does not mean they are always right. Heck in FF even us average guys can be as accurate as they are on a handful of players who we follow closely. What sets the "experts" apart is the scope of their predictions, not the level of accuracy in every specific case. When comparing the limited scope of two specific players deffering to the experts isn't very helpful.As a matter of fact in this day and age everyone knows what the experts think, the way to win is to figure out where they are wrong and capitalize on it.
Nick Hardwick, SD's 2006 all pro center is struggling to make it back from injury - he's still not practicing and is wearing a brace on his leg. He'll be lucky not to land on the PUP to start the season. They picked up Newberry from the Raiders as a FA to fill in (he too was a pro bowler in 2002 and 2003 with SF), but it's still a drop off. Their right tackle Clary is entering his first season as the starter out of training camp, though he did start most of last season.The line didn't look so good against the starting Dallas D last Sat, but left tackle McNeil was out with a neck stinger.I'm hoping for improvement from the line over last year (especially the beginning) but I'm not 100% convinced that's going to happen yet. I'd still give Minny the edge in this area even if McKinnie does miss the 1st 4 games.That being said, in redraft this year you have to go with LaDainian. He knows time is getting short for him in terms of winning a championship, and the way he went out last year is burning him up and will do so all season long. This year should see the most determined LaDainian we've ever seen. Add to that that the team has now fully internalized Norv's much more complex offensive scheme and playbook and an influx of more talent on offense compared to the start of last season (I think Gates will be there for the opening game), which will lead to more pliable defenses for LaDainian to capitalize on. Plan accordingly.
Yeah I was kinda rude there.... My bad..
Very, very
What do I do if I think ADP is better, but Dodds and VBD are telling me LT?
Who's team is it? Or you could just do what too many people around here do. Go with "the list" and crow if it is right and have someone other than your self to blame if you are wrong. If this happens I think it is a FBG rule that you must come to the forum beginning about week six making posts blaming FBG staff for ruining your season and costing you thousands
of dollars.
Why would they?Moe Green said:
Talk to the guy at 1.02 and see if he wants to switch spots with you. 90% chance you'll still get AD, and you'll get the 2.11 instead of the 2.12. Doesn't sound like a big deal, but I can't count how many times the guy before me took the player I wanted in the 2nd round!Itchy Amos said:
NO....but I would consider Westy at #1 in a PPR league.Westy outscored LT in a PPR league last year yet nobody mentioned him.Westy >>> AP
I won my league with Westy last year and I got the #3 this year and of course, I went with Westy in a PPR league. Could not be more thrilled!!!Westy is a STUD in PPR leagues but that knee and his age are worries to me.He's at #3 in my rankings.NO....but I would consider Westy at #1 in a PPR league.Westy outscored LT in a PPR league last year yet nobody mentioned him.Westy >>> AP
I won my league with Westy last year and I got the #3 this year and of course, I went with Westy in a PPR league. Could not be more thrilled!!!
In dynasty, ADP is a consensus #1 here and elsewhere.
i had AD last year and LT when he broke the record. i hope i don't get the 1st pick this year so i won't be so torn.
